State Dispute Imperils Dem Endgame

Might Hillary Rodham Clinton carry her crusade for Florida and Michigan beyond her own presidential campaign?

Interviewed in Florida on Wednesday, the struggling Democratic hopeful vowed to go all the way to the national convention if necessary to seat delegates from the renegade states.

"I will consult with Floridians and the voters in Michigan because it's really their voices that are being ignored and their votes that are being discounted, and I'll support whatever the elected officials and the voters in those two states want to do" (AP, 5/21).

While many assume that Clinton's vow includes a threat to take her own candidacy to the convention floor, that is not necessarily the case. Clinton could suspend her campaign in June, as some think she will do unless her fortunes rapidly change, and still seek leverage for deal-making at the convention by continuing to champion the cause for Florida and Michigan.

"Clinton is best served by failure to resolve FL, MI fight before the August convention" (Craig Crawford's Trail Mix)

Of course, at any moment Barack Obama could end the whole matter by signaling to the Democratic National Committee that he accepts seating the state delegations now barred for violating party rules on scheduling primaries.

But Obama might not be comfortable with seating Florida and Michigan, even if he gathers enough superdelegate endorsements for a winning majority and Clinton suspends her campaign. She could always revive her candidacy if something suddenly reversed Obama's chances, causing unbound delegates to waver. And in such circumstances, the two large-state delegations (which gave Clinton the lion's share of their primary votes) could become a crucial factor if Obama had earlier agreed to seat them.

Clinton is best served by a failure to resolve the dispute before the August convention, giving her a platform to make trouble all summer -- even if her own campaign has gone into hibernation.

More on Craig Crawford's Trail Mix (CQ Politics)

Comments

[sfbayani]

This shows really how powerful Billary is in the Dem establishment.
As usual, when you are so cloistered in your coccooned rooms,
you are not able to see what is out there.
That the world has been rapidly changing.
The Democrats seem paralyzed by this all - all the threats coming from
the Billaryites, the Billary's tantrums, etc - that they are willling to break
their own rules. How does that affect young people's thinking and values?
That we can break the rules because they are not in our favor?

Shame on Billary!

[ntmessage]

Why should she do anything differently? It is a noble cause to fight voter suppression, even if she benefits. Sounds cynical, and before I am flamed for past and future offenses and causes that Clinton should or should not support, this is the one that matters today and in the here and now.

[DepartmentalAsset]

I support Hillary in her effort to have the votes in Fl and MI counted. It would be easier to sit back, complain and muse about bars being moved or whatever. A leader takes a stand and fights for what is right. Thank you, Hillary. Keep fighting!

[CyrusBeaucephus]

She likes to start wars, too. And some of us haven't forgotten.

[NABNYC]

She's not leaving. Why would she be fighting to get all the Florida and Michigan delegates for herself if she just planned to turn around and walk away?

Here's the truth: it doesn't matter what decision the rules committee makes, Hillary will keep going through the convention. It's a manufactured issue designed to cover the Clinton's real plan to steal the nomination in complete disregard of all the rules. If the committee gave her all of Florida and Michigan (for whatever bizarre reason), she'll say thanks, see you in August. If they don't give her everything, she'll say "Well, see you in August where we'll continue our fight."

If there was no dispute about Florida or Michigan, but Hillary was still losing, do you think she'd drop out? No. Her hubby is putting together an obscene amount of money to use to bribe the DNC to giver her the nomination. That money will be hauled into Denver and dispersed accordingly. Then the citizens will be given some ridiculous explanation of some stupid rule that actually allows the DNC to select Hillary. She will then graciously offer Obama the VP, acting as if he's a sore loser if he doesn't accept.

[libbygirl]

Hillary just needs to sit down and zip-it! I've heard enough from her to last me a lifetime. Her chance to bow out gracefully has long passed.

[fugudaddy]

The Clinton camp isn't counting the results from caucuses in their 'we're winning the primary vote' totals...so those are one very large set of voters that are being 'disenfranchised' by them.
Additionally, Sen. Clinton knew very full well the rules for Democratic primaries,
The winner of a state is the person who gains the most _delegates_, not the most votes.
(which means, of course, that Obama won Texas, not Clinton, as she has been claiming).
The issue with Sen. Clinton is now that the rules are not in her favor, she wants to change them at the end game, and use double-talk, evasion, and other tactics that have been employed by the current Republican administration to force the rules into her favor.
That is _NOT_ the Democratic, nor 'democratic' process that the American people want.

[vsign]

The winner is not the one with the "most" elected delegates. Read the rules.

Yes - the winner is the one with the most delegates including the superdelegates. They can change their endorcements all the way to the convention. Their JOB is to select the best candidate to win the General.

I will reward the one woman in my lifetime who has shown to me her willingness to WORK for me to be a role model for MY values. Hillary is like Cherry Ames the Army Nurse. She will get us health care or die trying. That's my kind of gal!

[clearthinker2008]

What is worse is that she is boldly lying to her supporters and they don't care. That's incredible. I supported her at first, but once she started lying, spinning, and slinging mud I was like "um..I better look at this thing a little closer..." so I did and switched my support to Obama. Her current supporters believe anything she says even when the facts are looking them right in the face proving that she is lying and cheating. Do they really believe she gives a heck about MI and Fl voters? Do they really believe she won't do that if she was to elected President. I'm amazed at their unwavering commitment. What that commitment could do to change the Country if they would think clearly with the minds and not their hearts and make the switch to Obama. I know that won't happen, but I can hope.

Obama 08

[knighthowl]

I am with you. I voted for her in the California primary even though my wife and daughter supported Obama. Then came sniper fire, negotiating peace in Ireland and all the rest. She is either delusional or a pathological liar. I will never support her. I would withdraw my vote if I could. If she cares more for the country than for herself, it is not apparent in any way.

There is no doubt that she is a fighter. But for whom does she fight? No one that I know.

[gc10ike]

If it looks crazy, sounds crazy, talks crazy, and walks crazy..........it probably is crazy.
Hillary either just doesn't get it.............or lacks the kind of moral fiber we need in a President....or is just plan crazy.

I am very concerned that her continued presence in this campaign will sabotage what should have been an easy win in November.

And has she no moral indignation that seating these delegates would be a slap in the face of those sates that followed the rules? She exhibits everything that is wrong with my generation.....much of which is based on narcissism..............

The results of MI/FL are skewed.................no campaigning, many did not vote because they new it would not count, and of course BHO wasn't even on the ballot in MI. This is very sad.....demoralizing.... destructive. She herself said that words are cheap and that we should make our decision based on action. Well, she is taking action and it isn't good.

[mellene]

Craig's calling this one right. If it does go to the convention then the dems can blame the republicans in Florida and feel exonerated.

[zelduh]

The Dems can also blame Rush Limbaugh, who got her enough votes to win TX (before the caucuses) and helped widen her winning margin in PA (where my life-long Republican cousin and his entire family participated in Operation Chaos and switched parties for the primary - and switched back to GOP within days after the primary), etc.

[knighthowl]

And why do you suppose so many of her primary voters say they will vote for McCain in the General Election? Clearly zelduh knows, but what is wrong with the MSM?

[booksnmore4you]

Gee, I never knew she was a senator from both Florida and Michigan.

[myskylark]

If Florida and Michigan voters are disenfranchised, she should make trouble. Some things are worth fighting for.

In the 2000 election, when the electors presented their final votes to the senate there was an opportunity under the rules to challenge the Florida vote. The rules of the Congress include a provision that if at least two congressmen and one senator sign a complaint, the senate must investigate the charges.

There were more than two congressmen who signed the complaint (all of them African-American) but not one senator would add the signature needed to bring the matter up for resolution. Why? Because Al Gore said he didn't want any challenge to the vote.

What Al Gore, in his pompous, arrogant way failed to realize is that it was not his call to make. It was the call of the black voters in Florida who had been illegally targeted for removal from the rolls, who had the roads to their polling places made drug checkpoints on election day, and other intimidations at the polls.

Black Americans fought and died for the right to vote. When that right is trampled on they have the right and the obligation to seek a remedy.

In the present controversy, my opinion is that when politicians and legislators make mistakes or break rules, it is not proper to punish voters. Republican suppress votes - Democrats are not supposed to.

[sophistwatch]

Barack, Hillary and the DNC have said they want to find a way to count the FL and MI votes in an way that is fair to the voters and to the candidates.

The problem is Hillary is running around saying that she is winning the popular vote by counting all the FL and MI votes when no agreement on how they are going to split has been reached.

She signed an agreement not to do what she is doing.

Nobody wants to disenfranchise the voters of FL and MI. The DNC, the candidates and the states involved owe an apology to the voters. They need to overhaul the system as soon as possible so this does not happen again.

[JimR]

A noble sentiment, but simplistic. See sophistwatch's comment, if you haven't already. It's a great explanation.

Also, remember it was the state legislatures in FL and MI that started this whole mess by voting to move the date of their primaries, against party rules.

[RDixon]

The Clinton's agenda:
Do as much damage to the Democratic party as possible.

I am left to wonder now, if the impeachment could be done over, how many members of the Senate would vote not guilty.

Just think how much better America and the entire world would be had those Democratic Senators not ignored their constitutional duty and kicked the lying cheating felon from office and let Gore take over.

There would have been no Florida fiasco and no illegal invasion of Iraq.

Hell, it's a good possibility that the world trade towers would still be standing right now.

All because the party HAD to protect one of it's own.

[PKSSK]

WOW, well said!!!!

[Countess]

People used to laugh when Hillary Clinton was described as being like George Bush but they must not be laughing now as she attempts her coup d'etat after her failure as a candidate.

[Vishous]

MI was a Soviet style election with only Clinton's name on the ballot. It should be a 50/50 split. In FL, it was a beauty contest with no campaigning, so at best the total delegates should be split in half. Of course she's in her fantasyland about the votes giving her a popular vote total, but we all know this is a joke. If popular vote was ever the metric, campaigns would never spend time in small states, and would instead focus on the CA, NY, IL, and GA like states with large populations. The Clintons are trying to change the rules in the middle of the game plain and simple. THEY ARE CHEATING now.

[bgregs]

And then in both cases we need to remove the superdelegates from those states. Not gonna happen, but I can dream, can't I?

[myskylark]

Give me a break. If the shoe was on the other foot, Obama would be doing exactly what Clinton is doing now. And if that isn't the case, he shouldn't be running for president. Politics isn't bean-bag.

By the way, when Obama ran in the Democratic primary for Illinois State Senator, he had four opponents in a district where the Democratic nomination was tantamount to election. One of his opponents was an older black woman named Alice Palmer who had been his mentor and was the current holder of the seat. When Palmer thought she would make a run for the U.S. House of Rep's she designated Obama as her successor. Then, when she found she couldn't run for U.S. Rep,she told Obama that she would run again for her old seat.

In that campaign Obama sent his political henchmen into the office that oversees elections and challenged the signatures of all his opponents' petitions, and had all four opponents disqualified. He did away with any opposition to his run for the Democratic nomination.

Alice Palmer didn't have the money to fight Obama's challenge. Obama was well financed by William Ayers and Tony Rezco.

Alice Palmer hasn't spoken to Obama to this day, and she endorsed Hillary Clinton in this election.

That's the real Obama - not Sir Galahad, but an ambitious Chicago pol who will do anything he has to, to win an election.

Stop throwing stones at Hillary Clinton. Your candidate lives in a glass house.

[KGinSanFrancisco]

You are so wrong about Obama and so brainwashed by Clinton. Obama was financed by the american people, millions, record number of small contributors. The one financed by fat cats, foreign government (Bill's deals) and extorsion tactics is Hilary. It's all there accessible online on reputable sources: NYT, Newsweek, Time, etc.

[zelduh]

Hillary surrogates are just as dishonest as the GOP! What a crock!

BTW - The Rezko trial is over. Obama was not implicated at all. You need to delete the Rezko issue from your Hillary talking points if you want to be taken seriously.

[bgregs]

No, Obama would be looking out for the good of the party. Not only that, but he wouldn't have had $11 MILLION to loan to his campaign, so he'd already be out!

[hank48188]

So I guess you're saying the 1,800,000 DEMS that voted in the Florida Primary were too stupid to know what they were doing. Obama did seem to focus on those small States like Utah, Idaho, Alaska and other States that haven't in the last 50 years ever delivered any ELECTORAL VOTES for the DEMS.

[sophistwatch]

Good article Craig.

I hope the superdelagates take a look at what is becoming a disturbing trend in the Clinton camp. Hillary has quoted Karl Rove's anysis at least twice in the last several days. When Karl Rove shows up, reality has a tendency to exit the room. That brings us to FL and MI.

Hillary's claim that she is ahead in the popular vote is a deliberate deception to try to fool people into thinking she is not losing. She also has tried to make the point that because she won the racist redneck vote in WV and KY that Obama has a problem with "white working" voters.

Hillary signed an agreement not to count the results of FL and MI. She is now saying she is ahead based on votes that signed agreement explicitly excluded. In the real world this is called breach of contract and fraud. It is dishonest to count those votes until an agreement is reached on how to split the votes that were not supposed to count.

She can not win under the terms she originally agreed to. So she is trying to pull off a win by lying, cheating, misrepresenting facts and going "nuclear" on her own party.

Hopefully the superdelagates and the DNC will sit her down soon and ask her to stick to facts instead of Rove's talking points.