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Craig Crawford

Craig Crawford

Posted: November 6, 2010 04:01 PM

Was 2008 the Outlier?

What's Your Reaction:

How can elections two years apart look so different? But Tuesday's vote seems to be the norm. Its center-right results fit into the main stream of the last 30 years far more than 2008's assumed lunge to the left.

Even the Democratic congressional sweep of 2006 was actually more in keeping with tradition. Democrats won Congress largely by recruiting centrist candidates - which created a time bomb that exploded in their faces this week, as voters in those right-leaning districts and states switched back to the Republican column.

This has me wondering if Barack Obama's election was merely an exception made possible by the alluring uniqueness of his personal history and appeal. If so, the biggest mistake Democrats made was in assuming that their recent successes were transformational, instead of merely temporary.

Craig blogs daily for CQ Roll Call
 
 
 

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08:37 AM on 11/07/2010
Revolutions are transformational, and you won't see one in the US unless it's toward the far right. Jay Leno has a great vid on YouTube in which he interviews a series of young people on some very basic economic questions. Of course, they're clueless. How many who weren't clueless were excluded from the finished video, I don't know. But I'm sure those presented represent the cream of the bottom. But it's still scary.
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bg66astoria
Research Helps
01:12 AM on 11/07/2010
There are 2 different demographics working. That plus the failure of DEMS to write the day to day narrative.

It also would have helped if the health insurance changes were frontloaded + the high-speed rail/heavy infrastructure + green jobs had started as close to 21 Jan 09 as possible. Enough on the menu to feed the newscycle & get workers working.
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Paperless Tiger
11:10 PM on 11/06/2010
"Elections Systems & Software, Inc. (ES&S) counted approximately 56 percent of the U.S. national vote in each of the last four presidential and congressional elections, amounting to more than 100 million ballots cast in each election."

The votes are "counted" by private corporations with political agendas. It takes a huge voter mandate to defeat this kind of horseplay. America is a faux democracy, at best.
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VioletDatura
_-*-,,~*~_-*-,,~*~_-*-,,~*~
09:44 PM on 11/06/2010
Wow, Craig, I hope that's not true, but now that you mention it, your premise seems to be playing out.
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FALCON72
You can see the truth in every mirror.
08:56 PM on 11/06/2010
I think all the anonymous donors that came into play thanks to the Citizens United Supreme Court case made the big difference, Craig.
07:52 PM on 11/06/2010
I don't think any of its of the norm Craig. I see a seismic shift in the electorate. Where it's going, I have no idea. But there is a toxic mix of anger, resentment, dissappointment, corruption (Wall Street and DC), corporate shakedowns and government incompetence (both Houses) I've not seen in my lifetime. This thing is just heating up.
07:31 PM on 11/06/2010
Obama was handed the power to make changes due to the Republican campaign to destroy this nation. He chose to throw it all away.

The people would have supported him if he had only done two things: put the nation back to work on our infrastructure, and to allow Sheila Bair to shut down the banks which created the crisis. The benefits of either would have almost allowed him to retain Democratic majorities in the Congress and likely re-election in 2012. Instead, he wimped out, and the people rightly recalled their mandate. The only problem is that the cure will prove to be much worse than the symptoms.
06:56 PM on 11/06/2010
As a Democrat, I can even admit that this is a center-right country. Gallup has it at 42% Conservative, 38% Moderate, 20% Liberal. 80% of the country is NOT LEFT. So when you ram through progressive legislation on a country that is 80% not progressive, the pushback is going to be ugly.
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TheBaffler
a long the riverrun
11:01 PM on 11/06/2010
There was no progressive legislation.
03:48 AM on 11/07/2010
When people are asked if they are a "liberal" they say no. The right has worked long and hard to make "liberal" a dirty word. When asked what policies they favor, point by point (public heath insurance, free education opportunities, business regulation to protect health, environment, financial...) the american people are overwhelminly in favor of those kinds of progressive policies. They just don't like the label "liberal".
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Stephen Herrington
05:11 PM on 11/06/2010
America is not a right leaning country. Check the registered voter polls and the issue polls. But Republicans vote whether they are disappointed or not. They are all too happy to vote for the lesser of two evils, and so win when they shouldn't be but for left wing pouting.

It could happen again in 2012, but won't if the left shows up. It's entirely up to them to keep us from sliding further back down into the GOP governing abyss.
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Querent
I just had to say that.
04:51 AM on 11/07/2010
The Progressives are still in office. The Blue Dogs are on their way to extinction. The Left showed up, but we aren't going to bother to vote for Blue Dogs anymore, just as the Blue Dogs don't bother to do anything for us. Only childish minds think of this as "pouting".
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Stephen Herrington
01:43 PM on 11/07/2010
Legislation is a numbers game and chief among the benefits of numbers is just plain majority. The majority party sets the agenda determines when and if legislation gets voted on. Liberals can create all the progressive bills in the world but a GOP majority leader can just ignore them.

Blue dogs are all that can win in a red district. Therefore to get the numbers to make Democrats the majority you have to elect blue dogs. Then you work with what you've got. The plain fact is that rural red states are over represented in both houses and electing blue dogs is just a legislative reality.

So congratualtions for putting the GOP back in charge.
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sd4david
05:01 PM on 11/06/2010
Hmmm, lets see, since 1992 the Democratic candidate for President has received MORE votes than the GOP candidate for President in 1992, 1996, 200, 2008, and lost only in 2004. And EVERY year, the candidate for Dems was "the most liberal (fill in the blank)" And if Bush wasn't handed the 2000 election, Gore likely would have been reelected in 2004. But thanks for the "center -right Country" BS
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Cleverboots
04:41 PM on 11/06/2010
Interesting observation, Craig. Makes a lot of sense.