Gay Marriage: McCain's Shot At The Base

The historic ruling on gay marriage in California and the rash of weddings and press that have followed in its wake may well serve as the catalyst the Republican Party has been looking for to rally social conservatives behind McCain, who the GOP base, including members of the so-called religious-right, have not been thrilled to endorse. McCain is a long way from the unabashed "saved" evangelical George Bush, who won the enthusiastic support of the base in 2000 and 2004.

The California governor's race of 1982, which has already been a touchstone for election 2008, sheds some light.

Democratic Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley narrowly lost the race to Republican George Deukmejian. Bradley lost by less than 1 percent. Much of the blame for Bradley's loss, in an election where all polls, including exit polls, pointed to a smooth victory, has been placed on what has since been dubbed "The Bradley Effect." According to this theory, prospective voters told pollsters that they would vote for the African-American mayor to hide any signs of inherent racism.

However, there is a lesser-known reason that probably pushed Deukmijian over the top: a ballot proposal that would have restricted the use of firearms that was strongly supported by Bradley and may have riled up conservatives and driven them to the voting booths.

Flash forward two decades later. State ballot proposals to ban same-sex marriages sent social conservatives to the polls in droves in the last presidential election, where they were approved by comfortable margins. It may well have been the deciding factor in Ohio, where a state ballot proposal banning same-sex marriages was approved by 63 percent of the voters, and where Senator John Kerry lost by just 2 percent. Had Kerry won in Ohio, he would probably be running for reelection today, instead of considering a possible position as Secretary of State.

So will this issue hurt Obama in the general election? Obama has not come out in favor of same-sex marriages but does support civil unions. In California, a ballot measure was certified for the November election that would define marriage as a union between a man and a woman, thus banning same-sex marriages. This certification occurred just weeks before the California Supreme Court decision legalizing same-sex marriages (In Re Marriage Cases, May 15, 2008) went into effect (Monday June 16). The last time California voted on this issue, in 2000, 61 percent of voters approved of a ban on same-sex marriages, yet Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore safely secured the state's electoral votes.

Even if the amendment goes down in defeat, or if Obama wins in California, a state where he currently leads by 11 points, the California Supreme Court decision in favor of same-sex marriages has placed the social issue back on voters' list of concerns, particularly among social conservatives. It will no doubt bolster the sentiments of social conservatives across the states and bring out voters who are likely to cast their vote for Senator John McCain, who is an opponent of same-sex marriages and civil unions, as a gift. Even if they have to hold their nose to do so.

Comments

[CJGibson]

Americans to Republican candidates on the issue of Gay Marriage:

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

[SanityClaus]

Why have you utterly failed to include any FACTS in your "reporting?"

"In a dramatic reversal of decades of public opinion, California voters agree by a slim majority that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry, according to a Field Poll released today.

By 51-42 percent, registered voters said they believed same-sex marriage should be legal in California. Only 28 percent favored gay marriage in 1977, when the Field Poll first asked that question, said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/05/28/MNOU10U8MB.DTL

The same poll shows a decisive correlation between opinions on the issue and age.

The very demographics that favor Obama also approve of gay marriage, and his fired-up CA fans like me will be ensuring record turnout at the polls this November.

Shoddy reporting.

[Raymondf]

Can only be a help to McCain, I hope more states do the same, but I don't think they will because according to all the polls I've seen 70% of the country is against gay marriage including McCain.

[Raymondf]

Ties, with the Muslims, terrorist, 2 radical preachers, a wife who said she didn't like her country until her husband ran for president. It's a no brainer.

[cre8ivecurt]

"a wife who said she didn't like her country until her husband ran for president"

Raymondf, that's SOOO not what Michelle Obama said. It's not even paraphrased right. A huge difference between "for the first time in my adult life I'm really proud of America" and "I didn't like my country until my husband ran for President."

But hey, comments like that might just get you an anchor position with Fox News!

[Raymondf]

Non-issue, most Americans have made up their minds I know I have and I registered Non-Partisan.

[HHarvey]

Raymond, please include with your percentage analysis where you come up with 70% of the country is against gay marriage. This would suggest a poll? Kindly link it if you have it, otherwise please refrain from lumping in any information from the Fox News pundit site you obviously have been watching. You shouldn't register non-partisan if your going to blindly follow the MSM like all the southern white republicans. I personally think this measure in California will fail and the way they went about getting the signatures to put it on the ballot was very underhanded to say the least. Most of the signatures they received were from people who didn't even know what they were signing..... so when this measure comes out in November in all it's magnificent glory we shall see exactly if they get what they want... They wont.