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Dan Bimrose

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GOP in a Box with No Easy Way Out

Posted: 07/18/11 02:08 PM ET

Mitch McConnell's plan B approach for "allowing" President Obama to raise the debt ceiling and do the one thing that must be done to avert financial calamity is an indication that the Republican Party has painted themselves in a corner.

If you will allow me to reference another cliché, the proverbial box that Republicans find themselves in was completely self-constructed. Every box has six sides, and this one is no different. When constructing this box, they displayed a profound lack of foresight, and it suggests that their interests are more tied to winning elections than to effectively governing. These are the six sides of that box:

  1. Consistently labeling (or perhaps allowing elements of the party to label) the president as a socialist or a communist and painting a picture of the president bearing horns on his forehead instead of the flashes of gray that represent the reality -- a man who has gained some wisdom and whose learning curve is accelerating -- has made it impossible for Republicans to be seen working with him. And by "working with him," I really mean acting like adults and legislating in a way that benefits our country and not solely election results.
  2. Compromise has long been a necessary tool in passing legislation and being able to put that legislation on the desk of the president. People who excel at this are often seen as people who are able to get things done. Using the ridiculous definition of compromise as only doing what both sides agree on has done more to reduce the effectiveness of today's political leaders than anything else. John Boehner proudly stating that he even rejects the word makes him a big hit with the Tea Party, but also makes him an incompetent Speaker of the House.
  3. The impact of the Tea Party on Republican policy has demonstrated a rather surprising amount of influence on behalf of the wealthy, most notably the Koch brothers. The Tea Party membership, who blindly follow their insanely wealthy leaders, have demonstrated no interest in voting for Democrats unless you are talking about pseudo-Democrats, as in the Republican-placed contenders in the Wisconsin recall primaries. Fear of being "Tea-Partied" in Republican primaries seems to drive their every decision and keep them up at night.
  4. We must not forget good old Grover Norquist. Norquist is the president of Americans for Tax Reform. He is also the bearer of all of the signatures of Republicans who have signed his Taxpayer Protection Pledge. Along with those signatures Grover is also in possession of a great quantity of red hot coals, which he uses to hold to the feet of fearful Republicans in the hopes that they will never vote for a bill that increases the revenue of the federal government. Voting "yes" on tax increases means a primary challenge. The problem with this is that a majority of Americans believe, as the president does, that we should taking a sensible and rational approach to deficit reduction by using a combination of spending cuts and increases in revenue.
  5. As the deadline nears, poll after poll confirms that the American people will blame Republicans for a default and the resulting economic downturn. Why have they come to this conclusion? It is pretty simple, really. They are bragging about their willingness to shut down the government, default on our debts and become a deadbeat nation. You have Mike Pence out there proudly saying over and over "cut it or shut it." His ability to rhyme may suggest that he is awfully clever, but perhaps he should just keep his mouth shut, because he is also proclaiming ownership of an idea that will mean financial disaster for the United States. You also have smilin' Eric Cantor storming out of a meeting and stomping his feet because he cannot stomach the idea of closing loopholes for corporate jet owners and hedge fund managers. This is neither the act of a leader nor someone who is afraid of America not paying their bills.
  6. While maintaining their defense of reducing the deficit only through spending cuts and promising to shut down the government if it means approving revenue increases, they have started to scare their largest campaign donors, corporations and the ultra wealthy. These people love the Tea Party when they are fighting on the behalf of the wealthy and corporations to protect their subsidies and limit their taxes, but their love only goes so far if one of their policies threatens their bottom line by reducing demand even further due to economic stress. In addition, stock holders know full well that not raising the debt ceiling will mean a substantial drop in stock prices, which will mean losses that will take a great deal of time to recover.

What they have unwittingly done is created a situation in which they know they must act, because the results will be dire and the public will blame them if they do not, but all their past rhetoric has suggested they would stand strong.

This has left Obama's administration with a rather powerful hand. Obama holds pocket aces, while the Republicans hold seven-deuce and only one chip. They have to play the hand, even though they know that they are surely going to be beat.

What does it mean when you act like John Wayne but turn out to be Pee Wee Herman? You look bad. You look bad to the people you need to win elections: independent voters.

Unfortunately for them, Republicans currently fear primary and third-party challengers more than they fear the loss of the support of independent voters. Winning primaries has turned out to be work. Winning elections quite possibly and hopefully will be more difficult as Independents recognize the Republicans' true loyalties and stunning incompetence at legislating. After all, legislating is what they were sent to Washington to do.

Ultimately the debt ceiling will be raised, likely close to midnight on Aug. 1, and with cuts amounting to somewhere between 1 and 2 trillion over 10 years with entitlement programs spared.

The day after the president signs the deal, Obama will tell the American people that he tried for a much more substantial deal that would amount to far superior substantial deficit reduction, but Republicans said they just could not generate enough support for real deficit reduction. In essence, he is able to effectively make the argument that the Republicans are not really serious when it comes to fiscal responsibility.

Obama will appear as the grown-up and will win the votes of Independents, because he was willing to put Medicare and Social Security on the table as well as sensible revenue increases, a move that will upset his liberal base, but Obama recognizes the obvious, that there is no reason to fear that his base will vote for Michele Bachmann or Mitt Romney, and he must have the support of Independents if he is to have a chance at winning reelection.

With time running out, it is time to push all in, and I am banking on the guy with all the chips.

 
 
 

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04:30 PM on 07/19/2011
The rest of this opinion piece is full of rosy projections of the way Obama will be viewed after the dust settles. Believe me, many more people are waking up to the fact of who he really is and polls are showing that independents do not agree with this President. This isn't 16 years ago where Liberal editors at the major networks framed the news to suit their viewpoints. In the end Obama will probably go for the nuclear option and just dictatorially raise the debt ceiling while claiming the power to do so under the 14th amendment. If McConnell were smart he'd drop his "Plan B' proposal and not let The People, through their elected representatives, give Obama the authority to sink the country further into debt. Just let Obama drag us down that road himself. This way when the results of this irresponsible fiscal policy are brought to the forefront in 2012 he'll be voted out of office before he could double down with a second term. I know Democrats somehow twist that in their minds into some unworkable position Obama is being put into but the people don't want to take the path to bankruptcy, which is where his policies eventually lead. The only difference is that should Obama get his way the debt will never be addressed and on-budget debt would surpass $20 trillion dollars by the end of his term. We're talking about merely an extrapolation of what he's done thus far.
04:29 PM on 07/19/2011
5 & 6. These are the types of points that make you wonder why Obama put the tax break for corporate jet owners into his stimulus package to begin with. It also make you wonder if Democrats had proposed a budget while they had control of all three branches of government, instead of offering continuing resolutions, would those write-offs be gone by now. The answer is they would. But since we're operating on continuing resolutions, which simply rolls over the previous approved budget into the next fiscal period, all those write-offs are still there. So in one breath, Liberals are arguing against these corporate jet tax-breaks but in the next tell you that if we don't pass the continuing resolutions that rolls over the corporate tax-break they wrote into the original stimulus the entire system will collapse. If Democrats wanted the corporate jet tax-breaks to end they would have proposed and passed a budget. But since they knew their proposals would have been politically toxic they instead settled for passing continuing resolutions with the stimulus spending already worked into the budget to hide the fact that they kept the stimulus spending in the baseline. The media won't report on it so they get a pass.
04:29 PM on 07/19/2011
4. A majority of Americans polled also say that there shouldn't be any tax increases. It all depends on how the pollsters ask the question. This is why all polls that Liberals show as being proof we need tax increases define tax increases as increases in revenue. But let's take the Liberal argument one step further here. Historical economic data shows that changes in the tax rate in question (35% bracket) has made very little difference in total revenue collected by the government. The only thing that raising taxes does is create less opportunity and less competition as most cannot afford the tax rates proposed by Liberals. This is why raising taxes never results in increases in revenue. A portion of the tax-base is lost. So taxes collected by those that are still paying go up, but less people are paying so the total amount collected remains the same. All the data is right there for everyone to see. Go look it up.
04:28 PM on 07/19/2011
3. This entire section is presumptuous garbage. It may make your little Lefty followers feel all that class-warfare envy but it doesn't win arguments. For every uber-rich Koch on The Right there's an uber-rich Soros on The Left. It's a moot point. Didn't this author just read about how some 90% of Obama's donors in 2Q were Jon Corzine types? Shouldn't that make all Leftist blind followers of their billionaire donors to the Democrat party? Or do they have brains and think for themselves. I would think that the latter would be true. But in favor of divisiveness this author simply cloaks the argument through globalizing it. And we all know what you mean by being "Tea Partied" as you explain in a comment. I guess innuendo reigns supreme with the Left as a cover to avoid making just arguments, of which this author fails to provide.
04:22 PM on 07/19/2011
What a sad article. These weak arguments may work for the misinformed but those of us who know better see right through the rhetoric presented here.

The Liberals would really like you to believe that the Aug.2 arbitrary date picked for 'default' on our debt is some binding resolution that, if missed, the whole system collapses. No. That's not possible if the Obama Administration and his Treasury Secretary decide to do what's right and take the $29B of the over $200B in expected revenues this month and pay the interest on the debt. So Geithner better not drop the ball here like he did with his personal income taxes.

But let's go through a few of these points here in the article.
02:07 PM on 07/19/2011
"In essence, he is able to effectively make the argument that the Republicans are not really serious when it comes to fiscal responsibility."

I disagree.

If the 8 disastrous years of the Bush Republicans, where the U.S. debt doubled from 5 trillion to 10 trillion, when it took over 200 years to accumulate the 5 trillion, were not convincing enough and Obama couldn't make that case, then no amount of chest beating concerning his negotiating prowess will be more convincing.
09:47 PM on 07/18/2011
Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) - Puppet Master of Deficit Shell Game

A recent editorial by Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) in USA TODAY titled Opposing view: Just say no to higher taxes

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2011-07-04-opposing-view-debt-limit-taxes_n.htm

speaks volumes regarding the Obama administration’s misjudgment with the Fiscal Commission. Demands for the Commission arose from the 2008 book/movie I.O.U.S.A. highlighted: the Leadership, trade, savings and budget deficits; the first three being the most middle class relevant and root causes of the budget deficit, the tip of the iceberg. The ATR’s pledge signers (not permitted to negotiate in good faith) limit the focus only to spending, throwing middle class relevant deficits under the bus and allow ATR to be the Puppet Master of a deficit shell game.
07:32 PM on 07/18/2011
That NOT RAISING the debt ceiling must result in defaulting on our debts or failing to make Social Security payments is utter and complete rubbish. The fact is that we CAN pay our debts and make SSI payments. We also have enough money to make all the military payrolls. However, if we pay these things, we will have to defund temporarily or permanently about 40% of the federal government's other activities. It will mean that temporary furloughs or permanent layoffs of about 1/3 of the federal workforce. It will mean a downturn and a rise in unemployment.

Depending on where you are coming from, that is either a horrible thing or a great thing. It all depends on whether you believe that the current size, scope and function of government is in the best interest of our nation. It all depends on whether you believe that social services, entitlements and a large public sector is what makes our country great or if those things are shackles to our nation's future. America is very divided on this.

Regardless of where you stand, it is important that the truth be known that if we are to default on debts or SSI payments, it is a deliberate decision that Barrack Hussien Obama has to make. It will be because he believes that protecting the federal workforce from retrenchment, keeping government big and protecting America's crippling entitlements are more important than protecting our credit worthiness or mailing Social Security checks.
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Dan Bimrose
a liberal
10:19 PM on 07/18/2011
A very small part of me wishes that the debt ceiling will not be raised so all of the people who think it's no problem, piece of cake, there will be no repercussions, just so you can see the damage it will cause and then I wake up and remember that our country should come first. Don't pass it and watch the stock market tank, don't pass it and watch our credit get downgraded and watch interest rates go up, don't pass it and force millions to be on the unemployment rolls at half the pay in a country where demand is a huge problem right now.

Michele Bachman's grasp of math and finance is no better than her grasp on history.
12:28 PM on 07/19/2011
Yes, the country should come first. This is why it is time to drastically slash the government down to size. Let me give you the numbers... We expect 203 billion a month revenue. Debt servicing costs 29 billion, Social Security is 49 billion, medicare is 50 billion, Military Pay & Veteran Benefits is 6 billion. We CAN pay our debts, pay SSI and pay Medicare and pay or troops; it costs 134 billion out of 203 we take in. This is not debatable, this is a fact. If any of the aforementioned are not paid it is a deliberate choice the Obama regime makes.

This leave 69 billion for the rest of government which spends about 115 billion a month. This means that about 40% of the remaining functions and operations of government will have to be terminated temporarily or permanently. Personally, I think that is a good thing. Government must be made to do the same thing a private corporation does when it runs red ink and is out of money -- layoff and downsize.

I do not believe that preserving the current scale and role of government, or preserving America's Social Entitlements is in the best interest of this country. I believe that these should to be drastically reduced. And, I believe that such a change is important enough that I am willing to live through a great amount of hardship to see that happen.
07:26 PM on 07/18/2011
I am a " Book Of Changes Psyche" specialist. After I have in touched with Living Buddha in spiritual stratification plane, I become psyche. I learned a lots of viewpoint from spiritual stratification plane.
Very simple to break the box. Box build starts with 3 elements "POINT", "LINE", and "PLANE". You have to play those elements to become 3 dimensional. The last secrect ingredient is "Spiritual" to achieve 4-D with motional. me! ma me ma me horn.
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Dan Bimrose
a liberal
09:06 PM on 07/18/2011
Huh??
02:19 PM on 07/18/2011
All very logical and sound. The outliers in this reasoning are first:the apparent belief by the President that this is actually a negotiation (which it never should have been in the first place) and that he has to give something up (a tack he's taken on EVERY major issue); and second: the supernatural ability of Democratic legislators to snatch defeat and humiliation from the jaws of victory and triumph. Harry Ried is already talking "compromise."

I fear we are lost as a nation. Perhaps that's too dire - we are lost as a self-governing entity. 150 years after the civil war, the modern generation of secessionists (nod to Saint Ronald of Reagan) is successfully destroying the federal system (IMO they are as much traitors as their forebearers). The present Illinois president has not shown himself to be a Lincoln.

Nemo
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Awake-and-Sing
named after a great play written by Clifford Odets
03:22 PM on 07/18/2011
I sometimes wonder if the Civil War was even worth it. Slavery was economically unsustainable.

Red states should be permitted to go create their third-world, Republic of Jesusland where a few wealthy families hold all economic and political power, Pat Robertson is appointed Secretary of Religion and no one is higher educated, but everyone owns a gun.
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Dan Bimrose
a liberal
06:49 PM on 07/18/2011
As Secretary of Religion would Pat Robertson be called on to determine what sins a region is guilty of after they have been struck with a natural disaster. Oh wait, he already does that.
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Guscat
04:43 PM on 07/18/2011
Fan #2.
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dzymzlzy
02:11 PM on 07/18/2011
I believe the preferred term is 'fear of being "tea bagged" in Republican primaries.'
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Dan Bimrose
a liberal
06:47 PM on 07/18/2011
Indeed, in some circles it is preferred. Of course what I put in print and what I say in private are two different things. Ha. Thanks for reading, brother.
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02:10 PM on 07/18/2011
I guess there are no comments posted yet b/c this item is so far down the page you have to scroll from the bottom to find it. Too bad, because it makes some good points. I too am hoping that the GOPers have boxed themselves in and that when the whole insane posturing on the debt and debt ceiling is over Obama comes off a winner. Whether that will mean he can maintain that position until Nov '12 is another question though. By signing on to the McConnell fallback plan he lets them off the hook for any real responsibility for true debt reduction. GOPers will just posture and blame him incessantly until the election. Their total lack of willingness to take responsibility is audacious and it just might work, considering that Obama is a natural born compromiser and his own party is full of blue dogs who are terrified of losing their seats to firebreathing TP types now that corporations can throw any amount of $ they want to into elections. In other words, this box the GOPers are in could turn out to be a skybox in the stadium instead of what it should be, a coffin to bury them in.
03:08 PM on 07/18/2011
I didn't read the article because I know where it came from. But I would like to comment on your words. Do you believe we are in a debt crisis? If "O" had his way from day one these negoiations started we would be 1.7 Trillion MORE in debt with no cuts of any kind. My question is do we have a debt crisis and if so how can you justisfy saying "Obama comes off a winner"? Has HP really convinced you people that you are winning? If I live to be 100 I will never understand you people's logic about where you want to take this country. It's really sad.
05:16 PM on 07/18/2011
To answer your question: No, we don't have a debt crisis. We have a large national debt and it's people like you, who have given up on government, that make the issue insoluble. Do you REALLY believe that a modern nation of over 350 million people can exist without a government? Are you REALLY irresponsible enough to think your civic duty does not involve paying taxes and participating as an equal in political compromise? It's crunch time, Morris - you can't skate by on whining and platitudes any more. Do you want a country or not?
05:33 PM on 07/18/2011
We will likely never understand "you people's" logic either. It has been proven time and again that supply side (trickle down) economics are a complete and utter fallacy and yet you continue to blindly follow that policy off the cliff all the while rebuking people trying to apply the brakes.....

Where is it exactly that YOU would like to take this Country?
04:43 PM on 07/18/2011
The GOP has boxed itself into a corner simply because it no longer represents the people who elected its leaders to power, it does not want to govern, and it is beholden to the tea "party" and other special interests like Grover. The GOP does not even seem to understand what the debt ceiling is - it must be raised in order to pay debts for programs that congress has already voted to approve. If future spending was zeroed out right now, the debt ceiling would still need to be raised. Otherwise the U.S. would default on current/past obligations (not future ones). But because GOP/FOX Inc. has distorted the facts, no one seems to realize the basic economics of this issue.
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Red Herring
Retired Miner, living in third world
01:49 PM on 07/18/2011
Extreme ideology is the same whether from the right or left wing. The general population remains mostly centrist. They do not want to follow any set of loonies, right or left, off a cliff. This time it is the republicans that are leading the blind charge off the economic cliff. They are trying to apply the brakes, But they have cut the brake lines and are too close to the edge to apply the brakes anyway soooooooooooooooo here we gooooooooooooooooo.....................................
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Dan Bimrose
a liberal
06:42 PM on 07/18/2011
Although the two extremes do serve a purpose as they can push more centrist people in their direction I agree that they are certainly dangerous. On the plus side, they can be entertaining at times as well.