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Can McCain Survive the Presidency?
Any presidential candidate asking for our vote might rightly be asked in return, "Will you live long enough to serve out your term?"
This question has never been more relevant than in the case of Senator John McCain, who, if successful, will be oldest candidate we've ever elected president -- 2 years and 165 days older than Ronald Reagan was at the time of his inauguration. And then of course there's the well-publicized matter of McCain's malignant melanoma, the status of which he's keeping, well, decidedly unpublicized. He promised us he'd release his health records in April. It's now May.
Putting that aside for a moment, we decided to calculate McCain's life expectancy to see if, given his habits and age, we can expect him to last until 2016. While we were at it, we thought it only fair to apply the same scrutiny to Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton.
For our calculations we used the Vitality Compass, an online tool developed jointly by Bluezones.com and the University of Minnesota school of Public Health. It uses CDC Life Tables and the meta analysis of more that 335 epidemiology studies to calculate how different lifestyle factors estimate life expectancy and Biological Age. Then, we dug into the available reporting on each of the candidates and ran them through the Compass. For variables we couldn't answer (e.g. do you take sleep medications?) we plugged in the same variable for each candidate so as to put them all on a level playing field.
We found that all candidates are above average in life expectancy. They all benefit by being rich (making over $150K/yr), well educated, married, super-engaged in their work, somewhat active physically and engaged socially and religiously. Here's how they break out:
Hillary Clinton
Life Expectancy: 95.1
Biological Age: 58.2
Clinton has above average life expectancy. She gets big points for being engaged in her work, being physically active, and having a moderate drinking (beer) habit, in addition to the fact she has never smoked. We docked her slightly as she's not much of a churchgoer. Her well documented less-than-optimal relationship with Bill (thanks Monica) and her weight cost her too.
Barack Obama
Life Expectancy: 93.9
Biological Age: 36.4
Obama is the healthiest of all candidates given his age and ethnicity. He's given big points for his higher level of physical activity (we have reports of intense basketball playing and playing with his children in St. Thomas), his religious involvement and his stable marriage. He is a moderate drinker (had a beer just the other night in Philly). Because of his African father, he belongs to a population of people that has a slightly lower life expectancy so our Compass registered that. He also lost points for his previous smoking habit.
John McCain
Life expectancy: 87.9
Biological Age: 64.6
McCain's life expectancy is -- surprise, surprise -- the lowest of all candidates for several reasons: lack of knee cartilage precludes too much rigorous activity and his anger issues (which are well-documented). The anger issue is probably costing him a half dozen years of life expectancy. He does get extra years for his well-documented record of church attendance, a practice strongly correlated with better health habits.
But skin cancer is still the wild card for McCain. Can he make through eight years in the White House? In 2000, he was diagnosed with Stage IIA melanoma and had the cancerous tissue removed from the side of his head. That was eight years ago. A third of all Stage IIA melanoma victims die within 10 years.
Dan Buetter is the Author of the New York Times Best-selling book The Blue Zones: What the World's Longest-lived People Teach us about Living Longer. The Vitality Compass is available at www.bluezones.com.
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if you think a running mate isnt important, just remember who our current VP is.
I don't know... I really don't think it's going to be such a big issue. If the age issue is raised, all he has to do is have his close advisor and expert explain why it's not an issue - his 95-year-old mother.
What a shabby, cheap assertion.
It will not be an issue. Next year this time McCain will be in Arizona, spending his wife's money and contemplating his retirement.
I am a Knee Cartilage Challenged American (KCCA) and I resent the implication that KCCA's are somehow unfit for service to their country. What gives you the right......................................
I am curious to see who will be picked as McCain's running mate. Other than a few articles suggesting (gasp!!) Condoleeza Rice a few months ago, I haven't heard. If McCain were to (again--gasp!) actually win the presidential race, at his age there is an increased likelihood of age-related mental and physical health problems that could leave him unable to complete his term as president. Or he could end up like Reagan, who, after a failed assassination attempt on his life early in his presidency was marginalized and ridiculed behind the scenes by his VP (the real power) and the VP's people as just a little old man that was easily fooled, manipulated and controlled. (Apparently, Reagan required several lengthy naps a day and experienced ever increasing problems with his memory--AGE related symptoms).
This same scenario could play out again where, just as with Reagan, McCain is used as nothing more than a political figurehead to be taken out every now and then and used on the American people to persuade them to do something that is not in their best interest. Then again, he might have an untimely and unfortunate "Hinkley" moment that, unlike Reagan, he won't survive.
Frankly, I don't see that McCain has a snowball's chance in hell of winning the election, but then again we're dealing with some deviously nasty types--so who knows what "smoke and mirror" deceptions and trickery are being developed by the McCain people to ensure his victory.
Your use of church-going and marriage as indicators is a bit suspicious as these are useful in the aggregate but maybe not-so when looking at individuals. Politicians may go to church as part of a different pattern than others - one which includes public perception. Many politicians jog - not becuase they like it or feel it is important for it's own sake - but because it is a good image thing. Marriage can be an image thing too. Not accusing any of these three a sham of religion, fitness or marriage because I don't wish to make the same generalization, but I'll discount the effect in the analysis.
McCain's career on the other hand has included higher profile campaigns, P-o-W torture, divorce, high profile party friction/job stress, serious medial problems. All are agers. I'd say a biological age of 65 is generous.
Although some say the stress of the office ages people ten years for every four year term, I'd say it is more like double - you do get a lot of care too. If McCain's bio age is more like 70 - a four year term will get him close to 80 - still a bit shy of his expected age... He's likely good for it.
Of course he's saying he wants less secret service protection...
McCain is the only one to be concerned about because of the abuse he suffered as a POW; it takes a toll. Also he has had melanoma. However, it won't matter, he won't be elected, no matter what the polls say. The Republican Party is fractured and over 100,000 Republicans did not vote for him in Indiana and No. Carolina, which is mind blowing considering he is the nominee already. The religious right despise him; conservatives don't trust him. When a candidate flip flops on major issues, he loses credibility.
Two special elections have already gone to Democrats, in previously very red districts in Louisiana and Illinois (Dennis Hastert's district). It's only the beginning.
McCain has now delayed the release of his medical records 4 times. He also collects tax-free full disability from the Navy. At this point, I have serious questions about his health.
This whole election cycle is something about one kind of "ism" or another. Racism, Ageism, Sexism...
What's really disappointing is when that is what it boils down to. I'm not a McCain fan. But I have also know people of a different race whose politics are influenced by their race, genders whose politics are influenced by their gender, and people of all age...same thing. To say a person is somehow diminished by their age is no different than saying it is diminished /influenced (or elevated) by either their gender or race.
My husband's aunt received her law degree in Boston at the age of 78. She continued to practice until her death 10 years later. Was her capacity diminished because of her age? There's no evidence of that. There's evidence that it was diminished because of her gender.
I'm no fan of John McCain. In fact, I'm a Canadian who, even if I were a fan, would have no influence what so ever.
But I do ask the American people. Do not make this about race, gender OR AGE!! Make this about policy. And what you as a country need. You DON'T need old politics (Clinton and McCain) and you don't need another term of W (McCain).
I hate to give you more power than you have, but the rest of us are watching.
Except that you gotta' sign up and become a "member" to even look at the vitality compass. Their "about" page doesn't tell you much about them.
How do I know this guy Buetter ain't another L. Ron Hubbard?
He will almost certainly live at least 8 more years. I'm much more concerned about the much higher probability of him getting Alzheimer's compared with Hillary or Obama.
No doubt the assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan, which was far more touch and go than the public was allowed to know at the time, exacerbated his mental and physical decline. But Reagan's theme song should have been "Don't Worry Be Happy" - he quit work at 6 every day, put on his pajamas, had dinner, and went to bed. Our new president should have that luxury!
Doesn't seem to make sense to assume a lower life expectancy for Obama, slight that it is, because his father was an African. Obama did not grow up under African conditions, so it's unlikely that being half African genetically will have much effect at all. If anything, his mixed heritage probably gives him a bit of "hybrid vigor".
I agree with KillTheMessenger his mental acuity is what matters most.
Assuming the ability to make intelligent decisions for the good of the whole country, he would pick a quality person as VP and quality people as staff and appointees. So if he did not survive there would still be quality leadership. I doubt the Repocons would allow this.
Remember. Reagan was alive at the end of two terms. Never a mental giant he was probably mentally incompetent for much of his second term.
Eisenhower was alive at the end of two terms but was an exhausted and spent man for virtually all of his second term.
Neither man functioned as anything but the photo-op President.
It is probabl that McCain, also not a mental giant, would likely soon be the same.
Cute. But I am much more concerned with the man's brain tissue. He failed quite a few simple political intelligence tests lately. One wonders if he could get his drivers license renewed with that kind of score. And leading a superpower? Seems out of the question...
Indeed. His recent gaffes, flip-flopping right in front of the camera on Hagee, and his general inability to answer spontaneous questions accurately prove that there is something degraded in his mental functioning. Very obvious.
Gaffes, flip-flopping, inability to answer direct questions... clearly, they all should be disqualified!
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