Calling All Stock Market Gluttons
Here's one for Ripley. Given all the flashing economic red lights and the dangerous financial and geopolitical uncertainties that abound, the last thing any of us might expect, including me, is for bloodied and worried investors to suddenly rush headlong into the stock market.
Wrong, says veteran San Francisco money manager Gary Wollin, who expects a "buying panic" -- a veritable flood of new stock purchases -- to kick off any day now and push the equity market appreciably higher.
The 69-year-old Wollin, who manages a tad over $100 million of assets under the banner Gary Wollin & Co., believes the tide has turned, what with the economy bottoming and the market even going up now on bad news, such as the General Motors bankruptcy, rising unemployment and the missile firings by North Korea.
Call it, he says, referring to his projected buying panic, "pre-July 4th fireworks in the stock market that most investors will love," a good part of which, he believes, will be set off by lots of money on the sidelines -- notably nearly $3.8 trillion currently housed in retail and institutional money-market funds.
Such a buying binge would represent a major turnabout from four months ago, around March 9 to be precise, when the stock market was plummeting and the Dow Industrials were trading at a recent low of 6,547, down more than 7,500 points from their record high of 14,164 in October 2007. Understandably, Wall Street was rife with fear at the time, so much so that there was talk of an impending selling panic that could send the Dow skidding even further to the 5,000 level.
However, with the market having since gone on a romp, rocketing to nearly 8,800 on the growing belief that the worst of the recession is behind us, Street speculation of a selling panic has just about disappeared.
Wollin's projected buying panic calls for the Dow to jump to the 9,500-10,000 range before July 4. "You can't just wish for it; it has to be fueled," he says. To trigger this panic, he says, we're going to need at least some mildly significant good news and see the market spiking (via several days of triple-digit gains in the Dow) on heavy volume. As potential news catalysts, he points to:
- A clear-cut, no-hedged statement by a highly credible figure -- not Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner -- that the economy is clearly bottoming.
- A comment from some big name in Corporate America, such as an IBM or Intel, that orders are picking up, which, in turn, would enable companies to raise prices and beef up shrinking profit margins.
- A disclosure from a large bank that it has plenty of capital and is actually lending again in a meaningful fashion.
- A sign that the rising level of job losses -- which everyone knows is headed even higher over the next several months -- could be peaking.
- Indications that home prices could be stabilizing and foreclosures slowing.
- An easing of tensions with Iran or North Korea.
Though not a household name, Wollin should not be written off as a dreamer who is out of touch with reality. He's made some excellent market calls. Among them, he turned bearish on November 30, 2007, with the Dow at 13,371. That was a little early, what with the Dow subsequently rising another 793 points. But then, the Dow fell 7,617 points to its March low of 6,547.
Before plunging to its low, though, Wollin, on March 11 of this year, turned bullish at 6,930 and he reiterated that bullish stance on April 7 with the Dow at 7,789. Since his March call, the Dow has risen more than 1,500 points. Clearly, our man seems to have a darn good crystal ball.
Our bull, by the way, makes it clear that he's not oblivious to the land mines. In particular, he points to the gigantic government deficit; the risk of hyper inflation from enormous money printing; the threat of major financial failures related to commercial real estate and defaults on credit card debt, and possible geopolitical risk related to North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Venezuela.
As with most money managers the past two years, Wollin's performance is nothing to write home about. Still, he's done better than the market with respective losses of 22% last year and 0.39% so far this year.
Given his market exuberance, Wollin has stepped up his buying, with the emphasis on beneficiaries of a rebounding economy. In this respect, he's been focusing on transportation companies, among them Burlington Northern Industries, CSX Corp., Fedex, UPS and Genco Shipping &Trading, Ltd.
Some other favorites are Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Freeport McMoRan. He's also gung-ho on Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson, which, he says, belong in every quality portfolio.
A word of caution when it comes to Wollin's expectations of a buying panic. There are loads of skeptics. One, a successful San Francisco hedge fund manager, who is never quoted publicly and insisted on anonymity, ridicules such a view, adding "it's a bad time to interview someone who obviously resides in Kookooland."
This manager, a market bear who in recent days became net short (a bet equity prices will fall), argues stocks are absolutely no bargains as measured by per-share earnings forecasts and a bevy of inflated price-earnings multiples. He also thinks much of the market's buying power was dissipated during the recent rally. He further questions all the talk of renewed economic vigor, describing much of it as hope and sheer hype. He also expects the recent jump in the price of oil (and gas) to take a heavy toll on the consumer.
"I don't live in kookooland," he says, "and everything I see, including President Obama's developing love affair with the Arab world, tells me it's only a matter of time before we retest the March lows."
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Mr. Dorfman, is Stock Market predicting an Art or a Science? I know there is a tremendous amount of research data available to generate models on and all the data really does have a pseudo-scientific sheen to it, but it still comes down to predicting the future. What Stock Model predicted the crash? I know there are people taking credit for calling the downturn, but there were others crunching data that didn't arrive at the same answer. Was the revelation of collapse a case of skill or luck? Is there a model or algorithm that predicted the Kobe Earthquake, or 9-11, or the Kennedy Assassination? Those are extremes, but even an electrical blackout at the wrong time could have an impact on a business in a worse case scenario.
Have you ever been to an Astrologer, Mr. Dorfman? Have you ever seen an Ephemeris? Pretty scientific stuff used to predict the future by postions of the planets and how their relationships influence man as noted in the past. How is that data any different than the data that any stock analyst or money manager uses to facilitate their predictions? Seems about the same to me.
The thing is, either of the individuals you cite, the Bear or the Bull, could be wrong or right ... depending on the stars.
I think it would behoove everyone who is out there to consider one thing. The dollar is experiencing a serious bubble right now. It's like the opposite of the stock market and real estate bubble from a year and a half to two years ago. Look at the Chinese and Japanese. They've run up huge trade surpluses against us and as a result have a HUGE pile of dollars sitting around. And they are getting antsy (telling us to quit increasing our debt, ironically while they keep giving it to us). Couple that with the Feds continual printing of money for all of these bailouts and one of these days the Chinese are going to say "that's it, you're cut off." When that happens, expect a deluge of dollars hitting the market. What do I mean by the market? I mean the stock market, real estate market, commodities, everything. The U.S. dollar will be like a disease you can't get far enough away from. I guess GM can reopen their factories again. Of course that's only because the Chinese and Japanese won't be selling you anything anymore. Not if all you have to offer is a bunch of crappy dollars.
I think another worry is if OPEC decides to abandon the dollar ... then every nation on Earth with dollar reserves for Oil Trading will have no reason to maintain a dollar reserve.
From a 2007 piece by Hale "Bonddad" Stewert:
"OPEC is getting paid in a continually devaluing currency, which no one wants. In addition, as the dollar has dropped, oil has risen over about the last month partially as an inflation hedge. That means oil has been rising because the dollar is falling.
In short, OPEC has a damn good point in getting rid of the dollar. The only reason to keep the dollar is Saudi Arabia will prevent the move, not out of economic interest but out of political will."
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I'm just guessing but I don't think the dynamic Bonddad mentions has changed since 2007 and I would have to believe the pressure on OPEC to dump the dollar has only increased.
Remeber the good ol' days of last summer when gas was $4.50/gall
Please! Now!
Gluttons, or Masochists
""I don't live in kookooland," he says, "and everything I see, including President Obama's developing love affair with the Arab world, tells me it's only a matter of time before we retest the March lows."
And that single quote tells you every thing we need to know about the anonymou shedge fund manager --a right wing, xenophobic bigot who can't see anytthing good coming out of talking to those funny colored folks in the east. This type of guy probably thought that the market was destined to fall in 1996-2000 too becauise of the Clinton fella's developing love affair with the idea of bringing about a peaceful resolution to the IRA and tehmiddle east conflicts.
As for Wollin's predictions, 10,000 within the month seems optimistic but possible. He's only talking about a gain of 800-1300 points. In this type of downtunr there are only two absolute certainties. (1)a rapid turn around will happen when it happnes, and (2) bears and huff po posters will deny that it is happening for at least 6-12 months after wards.
DO hold your breath while you wait for that eventual "rapid turnaround
DO come back here in 1 year's time and wipe the egg off your face. It will happen. The question is when. And there will be teeth gnashing a plenty by fringies such as yourself over it.
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