Republicans: The New Whigs

Once the minority of House and Senate are comfortable in their minority status, they will have no problem socializing with the Republicans. Any farmer will tell you that certain animals run around and are unpleasant, but when they've been fixed, then they are happy and sedate. They are contented and cheerful. They don't go around peeing on the furniture and such.

Uber-rightwinger (and, to judge him by his quote, total douchebag) Grover Norquist spoke those words soon after the 2004 election, when the Democrats were still looking at their care-worn, frayed-nerve faces in the mirror and asking, "How could this have happened?"

But given last night's election results, perhaps it's time for Democrats to engage in a little douchebaggery of their own. And I'm not talking about West Virginia, where Hillary Clinton scored a victory in her brave but ever-more-quixotic campaign for the Democratic nomination. No, I'm talking about the election in Mississippi's first congressional district, where Democrat Travis Childers beat Republican Greg Davis.

A few words about the district. It is red, ace. Bright red. The sort of red that makes your sports car a target for speed traps. To put it in a more-quantitative form, look at the Cook Partisan Voting Index. The index, for those unfamiliar, is either an R or a D followed by a number. It comes from averaging presidential election results in a congressional district over the past couple cycles, then comparing that to the national average to find out what percentage over the national average the district falls. So, for example, take the D+4 rating of my own 22nd district in Florida. That rating means that Democrats finished in that district four percentage points higher than the national average, making it a swing district that slightly favors Democrats.

Mississippi's first congressional district? R+10. And the district is the third special election we've had this year. The first, in former Speaker of the House Denny "The Sausage King of Chicago" Hastert's old 14th district in Illinois, went to Democrat Bill Foster over Republican Jim Oberweis, 53-47. That district is R+5. In the second contest, in Louisiana's 6th district, Democrat Don Cazayoux beat Republican Woody Jenkins in an R+7 district. (Tangent: You know you're in Louisiana when the election is between a guy named Cazayoux and a guy named Woody Jenkins.)

And now, R+freaking 10, and the Republicans lost by about six points. If that is a sign of things to come, the Democrats could be looking at mind-bogglingly huge pick ups in the House, especially in blue states with widespread soft Republican districts. Take Michigan, where districts 6 through 11, all held by Republicans, have voting indexes of R+2, R+2, R+2, R+0, R+4 and R+1, respectively. With its huge money advantage, solid candidates in many districts in which the Dems were previously content to provide passive resistance, and the examples of the previous special elections -- especially last night's win in Mississippi -- Democrats could be looking at picking up some 20 to 30 seats in the House.

Before you go screaming about getting hopes up, that is a conservative estimate, ace. I looked at all the congressional districts currently held by Republicans that have a Partisan Voting Index of R+5 or less, including seats held by Republicans in Democratic districts. (Chris Shays springs immediately to mind.) There are 65 such seats. I put certain seats in the gimme column (AZ-01, for example, in which disgraced Rick Renzi will allow for an easy Democratic takeover) and others I dismissed out of hand (AL-03, for example, which, despite an R+3 rating, is never going Democratic).

The 111th Congress will see heavy Dem. majorities in both Houses. First order of business: The public castration of Grover Norquist.

Comments

[Cathexis]

IF the Democrats can avoid falling victim to their own hubris, as the Republicans were so egregiously incapable of doing when they attained across-the-board majorities, they may well be able to establish permanent majorities in Government.

I'm holding my breath, though, hoping against hope that Dems are above the glaring levels of incompetence, corruption, and outright stupidity that the GOP has demonstrated these past 8 years.

Absolute power ...

[oafishcad]

The GOP are Royalists. Calling them Whigs gives them too much connection to America. Their attitudes and policies are those of the people the Patriots fought in the Revolution.

[Rockwell]

I absolutely agree. Republicans are the party of Royalist. They have a sense of entitlement, contempt for the peasants and a fundamental, Un-American contempt for democracy. They put together strategies to pander to the Joe Sixpack and Billy Biblethumper but they never deliver the goods for them. Soon as they have power, they raid the public treasury and hand out goodies to their Royalist friends.

Republican's are nothing more than 18th century British Tories who've mastered the art of Orwellian double-speak in order to win elections. Luckily, it seems the old strategies are failing them this year.

[ShawnMichel]

I long to see the day when the Republican party literally dies. I believe it's on the horizon.

[SkelDaddy]

"douchebaggery?"

I have always preferred the older form, "douchebaggeTry"

Makes all the difference, don't you think?

[colleen2]

"The public castration of Grover Norquist."

Oooh, Mr Sweeney, you're a man after my own heart.
Grover Norquist? The guy whose offices in Virginia were raided by the treasury department after 9/11 because he had a Wahabbi charity operating out of them? Grover Norquist, the GOP's biggest money launderer and cleaner. An honest investigation into Mr Norquist's dealings over the past couple of decades would reveal a reflexive contempt for the law. He makes Jeff Skilling and Jack Abramhoff look like innocent schoolgirls.
I wouldn't want to see him publically castrated, not literally, but I would love to see him in a federal prison for the remainder of his life (and not one of the special prisons for wealthy white guys either)

[Donk]

Poetic Justice: feed him to the pigs!

[marignymitch]

Tax cuts for the rich. Tax loopholes for yachts and private jets. Endless wars of choice. New war in Iran. Army all but destroyed. Fiscal meltdown. Terry Shiavo. Politicization of the Justice Department. Political prosecution. Obstruction of justice. Immunity for law-breaking telecoms. Illegal spying on Americans. Habeas corpus. Humanitarian disaster in New Orleans. No insurance for poor kids. GI Bill. Walter Reed. Mothers' Day resolution. Corporate welfare. Worst. President. Ever.

Dandy legacy, I think. It's no wonder the GOP brand is fading. Yet Republican leaders remain clueless as to the reasons why. Continue the insanity, Boehner. Amazing.

[MsLiz]

All that is the result of gay marriage! LOL

[wm1066]

Ya know..in a way..your right!
thats funny.

[blueinannarbor]

Public castration of Grosser Nosetwist? That appears logically impossible because he would have to has to have what you propose to take. Since he doesn't, a public castration would appear to be an exercise in futility.

[MsLiz]

I heard that the candidates in Mississippi were not labeled Republican or Democrat on the ballot. If true, I wouldn't make such a big deal about this election.

[Liberal2]

You're absolutely right about not making a big deal about the election. Cuz nun o'dem voters new who waz a dimocrat or a Greedy o' pervert wens day voted.

It just worked out that way, that the rethug won.

[BlueOnBlue]

While I think you're right that part of what we're seeing in these special Congressional elections is a rejection by voters of Republican ideas and policies, we're also seeing Obama's coattail effect, specifically in terms of voter registration increases. Voter registration went up tremendously in Mississippi during their primary and Obama volunteers were the force behind that.

This is one of the reasons why calculations based on past voting records don't matter as much this year. The electorate has increased and it has changed. The old rules don't apply.

Obama obviously recognizes this and has already launched a 50-state voter registration drive which will run all the way up to the election, adding to the huge numbers run up so far.

[gro]

The Dems probably still won't have a 2/3rd majority, but with a Dem President, what does that matter?
I'd hate to be a Repug fixer for those machines this October. Any late-breaking scandals like '06 and you just can't predict anything. How many 51/49 Repug winners this fall? There will be anomalies.

[PuritanDescendant]

I'm baffled by what looks like the GOP's lack of understanding of basic democracy. The majority rules. When all of your policy positions are rejected by the majority, then you're going to lose elections. The GOP keeps trying to run on policies that majorities do not prefer. How can they expect to win elections this way?

[oafishcad]

That's why they're the Not See Right.

[LoRiseAntlers]

I called the Republicans the new Whigs in a forum a few months back,then had to explain what the Whigs were,why they went extinct,and why the GOP seemed to be following the same arc.I then spent the next six weeks getting flamed,getting called,among other things,"fag","terrorist","commie","liberal commie","socialist commie",etc.Never once did one winger mount anything like an intelligent defense against my argument,thus pretty much proving my thesis that in the arena of political evolution,the Right might just be finally dying out.

[Liberal2]

Quite an arc, wasn't it? From Lincoln to Bush in a hundred and forty years.