Indiana Home to Increasing Numbers of Once-Rare Blue Hoosiers
Another ominous sign for the McCain campaign is the most recent polling average by Real Clear Politics, which has Barack Obama leading -- albeit barely -- in Indiana, a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential contender since Johnson in 1964. A recent trip to the Hoosier state by this reporter supports those findings and suggests a continuation of the trend that may paint the state blue come Nov. 4.
Indiana overwhelmingly supported President Bush's reelection in 2004, and driving along Interstate 90 en route to South Bend, it's not difficult to see why. The self-proclaimed "Crossroads of America," Indiana is a land of farming, manufacturing, and religion. These are blue collar folks with red politics in their blood. This year, however, the economy is forcing a double take. A major region of the so-called Rust Belt, Indiana has ties to both the auto and steel industries and their spiraling troubles have driven unemployment to the forefront of voters' minds -- even, it's possible, ahead of typical red-meat Midwest Republican family values.
"I think Indiana is pretty much up for grabs this year," said Paul Garwood of South Bend, a self-described "pretty independent" voter who is leaning toward Obama. Just outside of town, where signs of economic recession are everywhere, an outsider might have difficulty even noticing McCain is running. Unlike Bush in 2000 and 2004, McCain has little visual presence in the community.
Such a notable difference between this year and 2004 seemingly has much to do with Indiana independents such as Garwood, whom Obama appears to be winning over handily.
"I'm divided but I'm pretty sure," said Michael Stankiewicz of South Bend. "[Obama] picked a good VP with history and knowledge of the issues."
South Bend resident Paula Blank agrees. She, like Stankiewicz and Garwood, is primarily concerned about the economy --- jobs and taxes. Blank describes herself as "more for Obama," although admits that McCain's pick of Sarah Palin did "kind of sway me for a while." Blank supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries.
The failing economy, which has certainly helped Obama here, has additionally prevented the GOP from playing into independents' concerns and fears over so-called wedge issues, such as abortion, gun control and gay marriage. Indiana Republicans recently failed to force a discriminatory definition of marriage amendment onto the ballot this year. The proposed amendment had been intended to prevent court challenges to Indiana's current gay marriage ban.
Such issues aren't playing nearly as well in 2008 as they have in the past, as Indiana grapples with a 6.2 percent September unemployment rate and widespread anticipated job losses in its industrial and manufacturing sectors.
"People are very frightened," said a South Bend woman who asked to remain anonymous. Citing the failing economy, she said, "I'm voting as much for Senator Obama as I am voting against Senator McCain ... We've wasted a tremendous amount of money in the last eight years."
Independent voter discontent is being capitalized on by an Obama campaign surging in funding and determined to bring it in the air as well as on the ground: according to the AP, "The Obama campaign also has aired at least $2.1 million in Indiana TV ads since June -- compared with less than $200,000 in advertising by the Republican National Committee on McCain's behalf through last week."
Of course, in Hoosier country, Obama's b-ball skills can't hurt, either. The man can sink a three at will.
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Indiana may well go to Obama (I hope so), but it certainly won't be "turning blue." We will be reelecting our Republican governor, and most likely mostly Republicans in Congress. This is an unusual election, with McCain's dishonorable campaign and his pick of Palin causing Republican discontent and even defection. But if the GOP had put up a reasonable candidate, Indiana probably would stay Red. In other words, we're still a red state, per se, but one that is voting blue for president this year.
Blue Hoosiers... Re-emerging after a 100 yrs of suppression. Kinda like the re-discovery of Blue Whales long thought to be extinct emerging in force from the depths of the ocean to once again Claim the Oceanic Superiority to the greatest and largest Whale of them all!!!!!!
phew..
Today, my mom and her cousin were talking about the small town in IN where they lived most of their childhood years. Cousin's father was a tremendous Democrat supporter and was invited by Kennedy to the White House. He worked himself silly haulling old ladies to the polls on election day. Cousin and my mom both laughed when they literally could NAME all the democrats they knew in town. Can you imagine it being that RED?
I think you have missed the major reason for rural flipping from red to blue in the prez race in Indiana.
Corn Ethanol. Obama a big backer of corn ethanol bill, McCain was against it. It will win Obama Iowa, the most corn-centric state for sure.
After the election people will scratch their heads why Obama did so well in the Mid West rural areas but this did not translate to D votes for congress. NPR will have some urban know-nothing opine on liberal church traditions in Iowa, blah blah.
It's the subsidy money.
BTW, Obama's home is a big corn state too.
During the first debate, McCain was nearly rabid in stating his disdain for ethanol/biofuels. I said to my wife, "There goes Iowa." He then added that in a stump speech a couple of days later and I told my wife that if he keeps that up, he's going to end up weakening his base in Indiana too. When the local amusement park's theme is "There's more than corn in Indiana" it's probably not a good idea to state emphatically your hatred for ethanol/biofuels. Now it looks like he's done more than weakened the base.
Looking forward to seeing the Hoosier State go blue this year.
Excellent point. Spending most of my time in South Bend and its immediate surroundings, the talk was mostly of job losses in the manufacturing, steel and auto industries, but ethanol is certainly a deciding factor for many rural Indiana voters this election. I think following the election we will see, as you and foxbat point out, GOP strategists questioning the wisdom of McCain to come out so hard against biofuels.
Either way you look at it, it does seem there's a kind of perfect storm forming for Democrats in the state come Nov. 4 - will it be enough to break half a century of Republican voting habits? We'll see...
Glad to see you spent some time in South Bend, my hometown, and I'm pleased by your findings--encouraged, really. But please know that South Bend is typically a Democratic strong-hold anyways (to wit: Dyngus Day, when the west side of South Bend practically shuts down to celebrate the start of the Democratic political season).
Unfortunately, when one gets just a little south of South Bend, one leaves the land of the Democrats and enters the land of the Republicans. The state's not as blue as you and I may like it to be. In other words, South Bend may not be the best litmus test for the rest of the state's political leanings. Lots of working-class Catholics in South Bend, sons and daughters of German, Polish, Italian, and Belgian immigrants.
It's sort of like the lake effect snow--drive just 20 minutes south of South Bend in January or February, and you'll see a dramatic difference in the amount of snow on the ground. Same holds true, I'm afraid, for Democratic leanings.
ewwww ethanol is not the answer. There are too many costs and losses in growing that amt of corn. I am hoping our next admininstration recognizes the need for real long term answers to reducing our dependence on ANY oil. It can be done. We sent men to the moon in a decade. I think we can I think we can I think we can...
I just tried to post a comment, but then I hit refresh and it was gone. The "pending comments" toll also said zero, so I'm not sure what that means. Anyway, I'll try this again. I live in southern Indiana, and I know loads of us who are voting for Obama. You can count me as one more "Blue Hoosier".
Obama / Biden '08
I live in a small town, not far from Evansville (very SW corner of the state for those of you not familiar with Indiana geography). My husband and I are voting for Obama this Saturday at an early voting location, and we know many others who are as well. I think Obama has great chances here. I know that we are an old fashioned type of state with true Midwest values, but we are also smart people with good common sense. My hope is that these characteristics will show through on election day when the rest of the nation tunes in for the results and watches this traditionally red state turn a lovely shade of blue.
Obama / Biden '08
My stepdaughter and her husband live in that area (New Harmony), and are expecting a little girl in early January... They were looking for a name that begins with "V", and I suggested "VERA" from the latin for "TRUTH" after ascribing the virtue of "Veritas" to Obama and BIDEN on a picture of them I have posted on the front door of my business...I don't know if they'll go for it, but somehow names like Hope, Grace, Joy seem to be especially appealing in these troubled times.
BTW, I think I heard that Indiana's polls are among the earliest to close, but I'm not sure about that little southwest corner that's in the Central time zone...
What a beautiful word...what a beautiful name. Thank you. I looked in my 1950s dictionary and only found,
Verity: Quality or state of being true, or real. That which is true, a truth; a reality.
Just like Obama. Verity; his very being. Exactly what he will bring to this country, finally, and not a moment too soon.
I am from Southern Indiana Between Evansville and Terre Haute they call the town I live in
""little Chicago"" and I am here to tell you that where I live 3 plants have closed down! We are a small town and VERY unemployed! It is ridiculous and yes This part of Indiana is very Blue collared But Red in votes Normally!
However I think people here are beginning to see the Light!
well I need to First learn how to spell!!...lol..Then type...........lol
Oh Well we cant all be perfect!
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