McCain Boosted In Michigan by Economic Gloom and Romney Rumors

On the same morning that Ford posted an $8.7 billion loss, today's Quinnipiac polls shows a McCain resurgence in several key battleground states, particularly Michigan. The gains are not surprising. As Ford and GM continue their reported flirtation with bankruptcy, now more than ever, Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm is taking flak from Michigan blue collar workers, and the backlash appears to be working to McCain's advantage. It may also increase speculation over McCain's choosing Mitt Romney as VP .

According to Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in Connecticut, "McCain sees recently Democratic Michigan as his top takeaway target." Brown notes that Obama's support amongst independents in the state is beginning to erode. According to the Detroit Free Press, "Independents may make up as much as a third of the electorate in Michigan."

Today's poll has McCain narrowing Obama's lead to just four points, down from six in the same poll on June 26. And a July 14 poll by Rasmussen showed Obama leading by eight points. Michigan, which has gone Democratic in every presidential election since 1988, is seen as a key battleground in 2008. Victory for either candidate, however, is contingent upon winning over the state's discontented blue collar voters.

Despite the state being all but abandoned by the DNC throughout the primary season, Michigan remains Obama's to lose. Yet the state's economic woes are pressing heavily on Gov. Granholm who, fairly or not, is seen by many traditionally Democratic blue collar voters as responsible on some level. Workers are outraged over the decline of the state's auto industry and the mass exodus of manufacturing jobs out of state and overseas.

If McCain picks Mitt Romney, son of former Michigan Gov. George Romney, as his running mate, Obama will almost certainly be forced to devote significant resources to maintain a close race in the state. Romney won a critical victory in Michigan in the Republican primary, besting McCain by 9 points with 39 percent of the vote. If given the VP nod, Romney could help the ticket overcome what many in Michigan still perceive as McCain's insensitive treatment of the state's economic issues.

"There are some jobs that aren't coming back to Michigan," said McCain in the course of the primary fight. An article by Jonathan Weisman of the Washington Post, observed that "Michigan Republicans apparently heard the Ariz. Senator's 'Straight Talk' as 'Gloom.'"

Despite fleeing his native state for a gubernatorial run in Massachusetts, there is a sense here that Romney is fundamentally invested in the plight of Michigan workers. After McCain's "gloomy" comments, Romney declared himself the only GOP candidate "that's got the automobile industry in my blood veins."

A 39 percent primary victory isn't exactly a lock, but a Romney slot on the ticket would certainly force a showdown in Michigan.

Comments

[Granmapat]

Your article about your Grandmother was closed to comments so please allow me to post here.
In all my 67 years - I have never been more excited about a Presidential candidate as I am now for Obama. I am from Byron Center, MI and I just think that McCain might be off-base when he thinks he has the senior vote. My biggest dream is that the youth and the seniors will rise up and elect a young, brilliant, dynamic man with a message of hope not only for us but for the whole world. That man of course is Obama.

[poliscibabe]

I was born in Michigan and my family moved into the middle class thanks to my grandfather's job at a GM plant. The real culprits here are the Big 3 auto company executives who could not and would not lead their companies into the brave new world of alternative fuels. What is going on in Michigan is CRIMINAL! I don't think that the Republicans, who as friends of Big Business, have the will or the vision to lead us out of the mire. I do think that Barack Obama has the vision and he is working on getting the mandate to lead us on the tough decisions that need to be made. Michigan is much more than the auto industry. My alma mater, the University of Michigan is one of the great places of higher learning in the world. With Obama in the White House leading Michigan can begin to move away from the poor political decisions and towards a better future.

[AKJM]

Romney may give McCain Michigan, but he will loose Missouri, Tennessee, North and South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Texas.... all the Bible states. I see McCain's best shot as Huckabee.

[tyruler]

Its amazing how nobody talks about the Arabs and Muslim Americans who could potentially swing the state to either McCain and Obama.

With the the Israel-love trips and anti-Iranian tought talk being thrown about by both candidates to secure the 2% of Jewish vote (mainly of Florida) you'd think they'd act even more evenhanded when it came to the Israeli-Arab dispute as to not lose the Arab/Muslim vote.

Alas, as the author notes, American Muslims have suffered enough to allow another third Bush Presidency even if the Democratic candidate parrots Aipac line of "leaving no options off the table" when it comes to Iran.

Maybe such tough talk doesn't work Mr. Obama, Hillary could have told you that.

[sonnysj76]

Jesus what needs to happen in this country before we wake up and realize that the Republicans have taken this country down the drain.
What baffles me is the notion that the so called "Independents" are leaning towards McCain... If this is really true...what the hell are those Independents seeing? Where have you been the last seven years? The country is broke under Bush's rule and McCain promises to do the same! Tax breaks for rich, calling people going through horrible economic crisis "winers" and so on... and yet these "independent" see McCain as someone who can help them and as someone as who understands them than Obama. Are you freaking kidding me?

[soithoni]

fear of the unknown
bigotry
fear of something new
no jobs
fear of the future
patriotism
fear of something different
Bill O'Reilly
Rush Limbaugh
Sean Hannity
Fox N Friends

Have you ever had a conversation with a conservative? The truth never enters their head. Their opinions are based on their gut feelings, and rumors, and lots of "...people say that...". And they're not changing their baked perceptions for nothing. No how. No way. "The Truth? - get away from me with the Truth!!"

They don't see anything wrong with McCain. Except that he's a bit of a bumbler. The surge, Bush, the damn economy, all them terrrrrrists, Johnny Mack'll take care of them! They can't see anything wrong with Bush! Well, maybe a little bit... "...but he's our preznit"

[Wilbur]

You must understand something. "Independents," as they are called, are NOT voters who are up-to-date on things, as the ptress would have you believe. Rather, they are intellectually lazy people who cannot put together a coherent or rational political thought-process and who live in a world of make-believe (where Democrats and Republicans put aside philisophical differences for the good of the country, and other such fairy tales). Every "independent" I've known has fit that description.

Once again, we see people planning to vote against their own real interests. As the Bible says somewhere: "A fool returneth to his folly as a dog to its own vomit."

Wilbur

[Dan Treul - Huffpost Blogger]

It is difficult to comprehend, sonnysj76. Michigan represents a particularly interesting case in that its economy has arguably taken a heavier beating than that of any other state under what you so politely refer to as "Bush's rule." In a recent post, I examined the state's auto workers, who seem overwhelmingly to support Obama. Why the recent polling doesn't reflect this seems a mystery, although the independents are certainly involved. I agree with you, however: it doesn't make any sense why a reasonable, independent-minded voter in Michigan should be siding with McCain, given the economic conditions on the ground.