Can America Afford a McCain First Term?

One of the common Republican criticisms directed at a potential Obama presidency is that its first two years will be marked by instability, poor management, and inexperience. But if managing an enterprise as large and politically complex as a presidential campaign is any indication of how either of these candidates will perform day one in the White House, it is McCain's campaign, not Obama's that should be worrying American voters.

Since announcing his candidacy last April, McCain has been unable to get control of his organization. The campaign's messaging, strategic planning, grassroots, and fundraising operations all have been mired in disarray. Most of the mess is attributable to the candidate's inability to establish a clear chain of command at the top and to quell infighting among senior staff, a somewhat stunning revelation when considering McCain's stature in the Party and past experiences as a presidential contender. But while the chaotic state of McCain headquarters has become a well worn subject over the past two weeks, with a litany of Republican elected officials and strategists questioning the candidate's chances in November, as well as mainstream media figures such as Bill Kristol and Adam Nagourney writing pieces chronicling the myriad and ongoing staffing problems, few seem focused on the more substantive issue of what all of this means for a McCain first term if he is actually elected.

With only 110 days left in the election, there is no discernible answer as to what a McCain presidency would look like, who would be the key players organizationally, where the primary policy focus would be directed, and how he would avoid the mistakes of management and judgment that have thus far pervaded his campaign. In fact, if the past year of inner circle shakeups is any proxy at all for how a first term might be run under McCain leadership, it is a disquieting reality.

• First, McCain Campaign Version 1.0 was run literally into the ground by July of 2007 by advisors John Weaver and Terry Nelson, who under McCain's supervision mismanaged his finances so badly that they bankrupted the campaign. Overspending on offices, staff (Weaver hired his fiancée and her brother), polling, and consultants (Weaver increased his fees to $20,000 a month even as the campaign stumbled) forced the campaign to take out private loans, a matter now under FEC investigation, simply to stay afloat.
• Then came Campaign Version 2.0 in August 2007, which continued on uninterrupted through June 2008 with McCain's hiring of lobbyist Rick Davis and number two Charlie Black. Far from achieving the goal of correcting the earlier mistakes of the Weaver/Nelson era, Davis and Black instead exposed more deeply than ever McCain's organizational ineptitude, including his unwillingness to completely banish or fire past advisors no matter how incompetent, his failure to define clear roles through established hierarchy, and his inability to provide a philosophical framework from which his campaign could launch a coherent attack on Obama. As Nagourney's piece last week pointed out, early missteps by McCain were not met with decisive action, but rather by incorporating a "swirl of competing spheres of influence, clusters of friends, consultants and media advisers who all represented a matrix of clashing ambitions and festering feuds."
• Finally, Campaign Version 3.0 arrived in early July 2008, when McCain announced a third campaign shakeup that almost inconceivably fell exactly on the 1 year anniversary of his 2007 ousting of John Weaver. This latest "adjustment" appears to have firmly passed control from Rick Davis to Bush-Rove era veteran Steve Schmidt (incidentally in the process making McCain even more vulnerable to claims that his campaign is being cast in the mold of a Bush third term). But if McCain believes that the promotion of Schmidt will finally put to rest the problems of the past, he is likely to be disappointed again. His inner circle remains filled with people who have been demoted without losing their official titles, like Davis, who continues to occupy the title of campaign manager even as Steve Schmidt manages the campaign, a complicating fact that guarantees infighting will persist. Even more concerning is the revelation that McCain himself may still be unsettled with his inner circle even today, a point highlighted by Bill Kristol's article implicating the lingering influence of former McCain senior aide Mike Murphy over McCain. With all of this it seems likely that McCain Campaign Version 4.0 or some hybrid thereof is not far off.

Contrast this against the Obama organization and the differences are stark. They remain focused, organized, and well managed. Notwithstanding some shuffling of his policy team earlier in the year, Obama has made no major changes to his inner circle since announcing his candidacy. Moreover, the chain of command is defined and clear. At the top of the campaign sits David Alexrod and David Plouffe, with the former focused on message and communications and the latter on operations, political, and grassroots. There is no question as to their ability to make decisions on behalf of the candidate. This structural coherence has allowed the campaign to largely avoid the political infighting between staff that so paralyzes McCain's efforts. But perhaps even more impressive has been Obama's steady hand at the helm. He has maneuvered and managed his unlikely campaign through difficult waters in the primaries, defeating the Clintons, and so far effectively defending against the early attacks of McCain leading into the general. He also has adeptly unified the two houses of the campaign effort, the presidential campaign and the DNC, typically a messy business and a logistical nightmare. This organizational leadership augurs well for Obama's ability to execute a seamless convention later this Summer and enter the general with a strong party infrastructure behind him. Even more important is what it says about how he might manage his first few years in the White House if elected. With the Fall approaching and the campaigning reaching its peak, McCain's current political team will no doubt ratchet up the charges of inexperience and youth against Obama. But these cries will likely fall on deaf ears if Obama continues to deliver a consistent message and organize effectively through November. Who knows, though, maybe McCain Campaign Version 4.0 has something better up their sleeves that we haven't yet seen.

Comments

[georgiaR]

"Can America Afford A McCain First Term"
My wallet can't afford an Obama first term after he raises taxes. Many liberals say Bush's tax cuts just went to the "rich". Well 47% of them went to people making under $100K.

[evahartselftlanguages]

TO: Senator John McCain July 21, 2008

You know nothing about Social Security and have it all wrong. Social Security came about in 1935 as Law by Congress and put in because local communities could not afford to care for so many people during the Depression. A Depression is going on now and your untimely remark is so wrong. Social Security is like an annuity paid on an insurance policy, not charity. The taxes I have paid in past I have not benefited from either so your comment you don't benifit by paying Social Security taxes and that young people should not pay for vulnerable aged is not an argument. We must care for Blind,Disabled,Deaf people,children. It 's a Government of ALL Americans and Rights.

Recently I discovered from National Coalition for Homeless at nationalhomeless.org web and Nov 07 Report which confirms my scarce food,job Report in 1997 and it states,"In many cities there is not enough facilities to feed people at soup kitchens 3 times a day 7 days a week.

St. Anthony's Marian shelter for women closed recently in San Francisco. Hamilton Methodist Church closed recently too known also as Haight-Ashbury Food program. Two other food places closed too. It is terrible out there. Welfare time limits shorttime shelters. Let's compassionately care for others.

Eva Hart A Christian In Army from 62-70 670 Eddy St. Sfc 94109

[evahartselftlanguages]

TO: Senator John McCain Sinator or Senator ? July 21, 2008


Proverbs 11 states,"He who refreshes others will himself be refreshed."

Proverbs 29:14 states,"A King Keeps His Throne Forever If He Cares for the Rights of the Poor." Although the United States does not have Kings this does show whose side The Good Lord is on. I'd want God on my side. Also the true understanding of Democracy means if have a bicycle you worked hard to get no one should take it from you. If however in a classroom a student must consider what wil prevent chaos for whole class and then consider also the individual and his rightful concerns. Democracy means all individuals are important and one should not step on their Rights too. This is not a nation of one for oneself only.

A GOOD MAN CARES FOR OTHERS

This hermit does not pay for what he gets because he enjoys all the comforts of civilization that he owes to the efforts of others, but contributes nothing himself. Therefore I will neither approve of him nor respect him. You don't do us good. From English Composition and Grammar Mr. Warriner

Eva Hart A Christian

[Pahbi]

The whole issue of, 'experience' is so bizarre to contemplate.

How much experience did Ronald Reagon have with world affairs did he have before he took office? He was an actor and then Gov. of California. Bill Clinton was the Gov. of Arkansas before he became president.

From Jimmy Carter forward, the only president we've had that came into office with significant, 'world experience' was George H Bush. The other 4 presidents, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W Bush, were Govenors.

How has this issue of, 'experience' become such a focus during this campaign?

- Pahbi

[Faith101]

McCain's time has passed, we cannot afford him to lead us in the 21st Century. This man has only just recently begin to learn how to use a computer, come on now. We can't afford McCain as president, not now. He definitely is not a visionary

[eden4barack08]

HELL NO!

*Answer to the headline.*

[thepoliticalcat]

I second that emotion. Good Gawd.

[SimonNZ]

Bill Kristol is a mainstream media figure? Gee, and I always thought he was a slimey closeted ultra-right
wingnut. Go figure............

[Tremonius]

I have never understood how news agents, particularly broadcasters, concede always the lowest common ground, such as, the nature of Experience. Politics, in the Senate or anywhere else, is essentially a carousel ride, and you learn all of value you ever shall know after one rotation. It doesn't make any difference how long you remain on your painted pony ever afterwards. All you derive from more and ever more loops is age.

A better example perhaps is prostitution. The john pays a price and the hooker performs tricks for him, whether casting a vote or writing a letter to a federal agency. What does a hooker accumulate by more and more tricks? Nothing to brag about, I think.

Hillary in Bosnia dodging sniper fire, McSame in Hanoi, this is Foreign Policy Experience? You'd learn much more from a high school civics class. Not well known and even less well reported is the sad fact that the most ignorant sources of policy opinion on Vietnam were the vets who fought there. The Domino Theory was created in the air, not on the ground. Vets often assumed on the basis of Experience what they could not support with knowledge or understanding. I lost any illusions on that score in nearly twenty six years as a veterans benefits counselor. There were Kerry exceptions, but many more roomfuls of old echoes.

Which is the best description I can think of for old McSame.

[Okieborn]

If Mccain would win the Presidential race this fall, I would be forced to move to Canada!!
I would know that America had gone "NUTS" !!!

[reshas1]

Start packing....

[RocketmanBob]

Enjoy your trip.............

[barackobama4prez]

I thought about moving there too lol

[elizaW]

So Obama can organize a campaign. You think that makes him a good president? I think it makes him a good office manager. I guess when your candidate has accomplished nothing while in the Senate you've got to concentrate on how good he is at promoting himself. If you want a good office manger who will do nothing but promote himself and ruin the economy, then I guess Obama is your guy.

[MaryanneAZ]

Wa-wa-wa .... Obama is a thoughtful, pragmatic, steady, articulate and saavy candidate and campaign manager. BTW, you need to look at Obama's senate record and accomplishments before you sound off. Also, this is not his first time managing a campaign successfully either. He ran in Illinois and then for the U.S. Senate. He runs his personal life the same way--no drama, no debt, wise investments, exercise, etc. Obama is a role model as well as a fantastic politician who has what it takes to lead the Nation. I welcome an Obama presidency. It is more than time for change. Obama '08

[eden4barack08]

A 50 state large office, that is! Come November he'll manage it from the WH.

[kd1s]

Good management requires leadership and what is a president other than a leader.

[firewmn]

*
In your own words.. "I think that makes him a good office manager"... Barack thanks you and I thank you for the compliment as the POTUS ... is the HIGHEST OFFICE..!!

Barack is my office manager of choice..!

*

[mari2JJ]

Here, here!!!!! For me too. Barak has shown his leadership style and it will serve him well in the White House. We are all sick and tired of a President that is cluelessd and who mucks everything he touches. And the next President is going to be stuck with cleaning up the 8 years of wall to wall mess left by this shiftless Bush administration. Sad to say that this Bush is not a chip off the old block like Bush 1 was, He has been a great disappointment in everything he has done and for what he chould have done but didn't.

[thepoliticalcat]

You know, the fact of the matter is, he is running an incredibly tight ship. If you've ever managed anything more complex than a child, you know how much work it takes to get a single project off the ground and running. I am amazed at his skills. He is fiscally responsible, sensible, calm despite the trying hell he's living through, focused, energetic, hardworking. I fall to pieces sometimes when dealing with my projects. It's one reason I hate management. I'd rather just have someone else take the headaches. Just tell me what I need to do and when you want the item delivered and leave me alone to do my job.

He's displaying an amazing understanding of multiple complex issues and has hardly made a false step despite his relative youth and the intensity of the public gaze. That alone makes him a far fitter contender for the position than anyone else who entered the field. I refer you to Hillary Clinton's multimillion dollar debt and McCain's unbelievably out-of-it campaign.

[CologneCitizen]

Most Europeans feel you cannot afford McCain. The last 8 years have brought the USA down in many fields. The "corporate identity" of the USA has suffered a lot under the current regime. Obama may be inexperienced, but he is a smart guy and we think he can get America back on track. His opponent would carry on what this admin does now. Not good enough for the USA and therefore not affordable. He is too much a military man, fascinated with death and destruction. His bombing song to the tune of Barbara Ann and his wish of smoking themselves to death Iranians would have cost him the nomination in many other countries. Sick jokes should not come from a person who is going for the highest position in the USA.

[RocketmanBob]

Thanks for the advice, but, during an election we usually give more weight to what US citizens thank about the candidates and less shrift to the opinions of other nationals. If Obama were running for "president of Europe" then it would matter, but last time I checked...................

When doing the right thing one generally doesn't worry about the opinions of others-verstehen zie?

Until the UN is reformed into a truly democratic assembly, that guarantees the individual's, as well as the member nation's, rights-to freedom, private property (material and ideas), and identity-I will choose to rely on my own national identity, outlook, and sovereignty.

If y'all love Obama so much you can have him. We'll take Hillary.........

[Higbyguy]

George W. Bush has pretty much crapped all over the reputation of the U.S. in the eyes of the world as head of a renegade cowboy nation that will do whatever the hell it wants to because it's the biggest bully on the playground. It's quite telling that the best defense that discredited ideologues like RocketmanBob can come up with is to discount the opinions of everyone who isn't an American. That kind of attitude evinced by eight long, embarrassing years of "We can do whatever the hell we want because we're Americans" is -- thank God -- finally coming to an end. Whether or not the UN works, this country that I love and revere has under the leadership of selfish NeoCons become the world bully.

Obama's candidacy isn't only a breath of fresh air -- it's the only thing that's going to restore our reputation as world leader through leadership and not through arrogance and intimidation.

Something to think about, RocketmanBob while you drive around in your gas-gussling American flag-covered Hummer and think that this is what patriotism is all about.

[atienne]

I would like the next POTUS to be an achiever, someone who got to where they are on intelligence, savvy and skill. I don't want yet another POTUS that got to where they are by having it bought for him.

It has been proven that Ayers was not a big donor to the campaign. He holds a respectable job and was never actually charged with a crime. You complain about this but neglect that McC himself was a member of the Keating 5 and escaped punishment based on who he is and who he is connected with. His own wife was not merely drug addicted but stole from her own charity (that's sick!) and her family has mob connections but this is somehow OK??? Why the double standard? Aren't you sick of crooks as your POTUS? I am not religious and am not defending Wright or any other preacher, reverand or priest but too many do preach intolerance. Although, I listened fully to the sermons from which the soundbytes came and I can tell you that it was NOT hatred that was being preached from the pulpit. Perhaps you should take a listen for yourself instead of being spoonfed soundbytes.

I honestly fear that a McC presidency will bring this nation crumbling the rest of the way down. The rest of the world will see this nation as a nation of ignorance and what little bit of power this nation has left, will be gone. You can trust in that!

[rich5861]

I think it is awesome you know your facts. Someone sent me an e-mail the other day and saying how much Michelle Obama hated American and Cindy McCain. I wrote back and it was easy to
challenge all the charges against Michelle and point out where they were wrong about Cindy.

I enjoyed your comment.

[eden4barack08]

And I enjoyed yours. Kudos for responding to those vicious emails with facts!

[watchingthings]

Stupidty is at it's peak with Bush in command. Why would anyone, even in their wildest dreams, even think of electing someone like McCain?

[watchingthings]

...as to can it afford Mccain......no...not unless the country has charged and is processing the current administration for war crimes and crimes against the state. If America refuses to hold the current administration accountable and does not charge them....the world will not forgive them and all Americans will have to stay home. America will be cut off from the world. What this administration has done borders on Fascism....and maybe fascism will be tollerated in Amnerica....but the rest of the world will not stand for it.

[arcanepsyche]

Judging by the actions of the house right now, it seems like some sort of recompense will be sought once the neo-cons leave office. We just have to wait for them to not be able to use their "executive privilege" anymore. Bleghch, I can't even stand to think about how evil they are.

[watchingthings]

After the disaster that is bush....how can you even ask such a question, if you want an honest answer.

[elizaW]

What's your point? That Obama is more organized? That's like saying he's a Virgo. So what. His fiscal policy is a disaster for the middle class. We can't afford an Obama presidency.

[rich5861]

I don't understand how you can say that Obama's fiscal policies will be a disaster for the middle class. Under his plan, you will pay lower taxes. You will have health insurance that you can afford and if you can't afford it, you will still be covered. The middle class makes around 75 -80 thousand per year. If you make over that, you are not middle class at all. There is nothing wrong with making a lot of money but our country is in trouble now. To deny that would just be putting blinders on. I think you should really study his policies before just saying that the middle class would suffer. From what I have read and heard about Obama's policies, it will help most people tremendously. By the way, you need exceptional organizational skills to make this happen and he is blessed with those abilities.

[metogamekun]

Although I agree with most of your comment, I can't help but wonder where the $75-80K per year for the middle class came from. If this is true, the average American is lower class.

From wikipedia - "In 2006, the median annual household income was $48,201.00 according to the Census Bureau." I know it is now 2008, but I really doubt we've made that big of an advance in the last 24 months.

Personally I don't see how people live on anything less than this amount. I'm somewhere in between your number and the Census Bureau's and don't feel wealthy (although I'm not hurting either, just frugal by necessity.)

Makes the statements about those making $200k a year being middle class seem a little fantastic doesn't it. I'd like to see Phil Gramm and his ilk try to get by on what the average household has to. Bet he wouldn't be making such asinine comments.

[MaryanneAZ]

How is that republican presidency working out for you? For me, my wages have been stagnant, I cannot afford meat in my grocery order, I'm now taking public transportation because gas is too expensive, my 401(k) investments have taken a nose dive, my health care premiums have tripled along with my copays, I could go on. I think you get the picture. A Republican presidency of 8 years has been a disaster for me and our Nation. Wake up. Elect Barack Obama. We need a disciplined and intelligent president at the helm. Obama '08

[Sparky123]

You can relax. After the October surprise, McCain will waltz into the WH with a 70% approval rating.

[arcanepsyche]

What, is the government going to plan another terrorist attack on the US? Are they going to assassinate Obama? A 70% approval rating for EITHER candidate is ridiculous during the election. The media is ignoring McCain's faults right now, but come fall and winter the uninformed voters (like you) will finally understand how horrible of a person he really is.

[Vermontah]

"His fiscal policy is a disaster for the middle class"

That's just about the stupidest and most uninformed comment I have read on HuffPost. And that's saying a lot.

You simply do not realize that the Republican party's philosophy is the destruction of the middle class. They don't want to deal with a middle class, they don't want to help the middle class, and since Ronald Reagan they have undone what has made our country great, the working middle class.

Democrats, while not perfect by any means, do have a philosophy oriented to the middle class. Any Democratic candidate will be better for the middle class than a Republican.

A disaster for the middle class? Absolute hogwash.