Pulling Away From McCain After the Convention

The good news for Obama heading into the Democratic National Convention next week is that he continues to lead McCain in the national polls by 45% to 42% among likely voters, according to a recent poll taken by WSJ/NBC. Even more encouraging is the fact that composite polling from pollster.com indicates Obama maintains a healthy lead in the Electoral College tally with 260 to 191 and 87 toss-ups. The WSJ/NBC poll also points to the fact that voters remain much more enthusiastic about Obama's candidacy, that his fundraising continues to give him a significant advantage, and that he is registering voters in much greater numbers than the Republicans. All of this augurs well for his candidacy heading into the general election.

The bad news, or at least the more paradoxical, is that despite his effectiveness as a candidate thus far, Obama has still not moved into a more dominant position in this election. This is a particularly puzzling reality when one considers the comparatively uninspiring strategy and message McCain has offered to the nation.

The key to understanding the current paradigm most likely rests with the fact that McCain continues to hold a distinct advantage over Obama on issues of national security and foreign affairs. A more targeted WSJ/NBC poll conducted in July indicates that 53% of respondents believe Senator McCain would make a better commander in chief, while 25% said the same about Obama. Similar numbers apply when comparing the candidates on issues related to the management of the war on terror and US policy in Iraq. These polls offer an important insight not only into why the race remains so close, but also where Obama can make strategic adjustments to pull away from McCain after the convention next week.

In the past several weeks McCain has wisely refocused his campaign on major foreign policy matters confronting the nation, while minimizing his rhetoric on domestic concerns, such as the economy, where Obama has the advantage. This strategy was on full display during the recent conflict between Russian and Georgia where McCain sought to bolster his commander-in-chief credentials and move the dialogue in a direction favoring his campaign. Shortly after the conflict broke out, the Arizona Senator went on the offensive. Taking an even more hard-line approach than Bush, McCain issued a statement urging a UN resolution by the Security Council condemning Russia's action, an emergency session of NATO to demand a cease-fire, and to remove Russia from the G8.

This response set the stage for what surely will be the core of the McCain strategy in the general election -- move the dialogue decidedly in the direction of foreign policy and national security issues, adopt hard-line policies that make McCain seem like a strong leader, use fear as a way to scare voters into believing they can only be safe and secure under a McCain presidency, and attack Obama as a candidate who is hopelessly naïve and inexperienced on the nation's foreign affairs. In effect, adopt the same "Rovian strategies" that got Bush elected twice.

But unlike the 2000 and 2004 elections, it is not so clear that these same strategies will work this time around. For starters, domestic ones now predominate over foreign policy ones. The economy, for example, is far and away the issue of greatest importance to Americans in this election. Moreover, voters seem far less convinced after 8 years of failed policies under Bush that a hard-line approach to our foreign affairs is the proper one.

This changing paradigm offers Obama two critical opportunities in the months ahead to pull away from McCain. First, is for Obama to take ownership of a key domestic issue like the economy and "own it." Second, is to challenge McCain on the single issue where he remains strongest, thus diminishing the key rationale for his candidacy. Without the national security and foreign policy legs to stand on, the McCain candidacy goes nowhere. On this second point particularly, there are at least five areas where Obama should focus his attention after next week's convention to make significant inroads on McCain:

• Get Detailed and Provide Solutions: Obama has run the past 18 months as the candidate of hope and change. But lacking from this message at times have been real solutions that address crucial foreign policy challenges. In the lead up to the general election it was enough for Obama to speak in more general terms, but as the possibility of his becoming president becomes greater, so does the need to put his change message into more concrete terms for the American public. This will be the only way for him to make inroads will voters still concerned about his "inexperience" on foreign affairs.
• Get Right on the Surge: McCain will no question wield a powerful sword on the issue of the surge this fall. Not only did Obama vote against it, but in responding to questions about its apparent successes, he is quoted as saying that even knowing what he knows now, he still would not have voted for it. The fact is that Obama was right to vote against the surge. No President who has managed a conflict as poorly as Bush deserves a vote of confidence to expand US involvement. But Obama's posturing runs dangerously close to creating the same type of vulnerability John Kerry created in 2004 when he argued very technically that he voted "for" the war before he voted "against" it. The surge is bad politics for Obama and he needs to get clear to the American public that he recognizes the successes of the troops on the ground.
• Get Tough on Iran: Obama needs an issue on foreign policy where he seems less nuanced and more "tough." Iran represents the best opportunity for him to do this not only because a tough policy is the right one, and because Obama already agrees with that position, but also because it will help him shore up his base within an important constituency -- Jewish voters -- in key states such as Florida. Obama's recent trip to the Middle East made one thing clear -- that his administration, like McCain's will not accept a nuclear Iran. Yet despite this emerging consensus among the candidates, Obama has failed to make it a centerpiece of his campaign, thus allowing a nagging perception to perpetuate within the Jewish community that McCain will ultimately be better for Israel than Obama. If Obama wishes to continue to make inroads with Jewish voters in key states, he must work to better inform them of where he stands on such critical issues. This is one area where smart policy is smart politics too.
• Go on the Attack - McCain's judgments on foreign policy have been cut from the Bush-era model and its policies of the past 8 years. But recent shifts by the Bush team away from its own foreign policy orthodoxy are now demonstrating, in stunning fashion, the intrinsic weaknesses of this model. Reversals on a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, the need for redeployment to Afghanistan, dialogue with Iran, and active negotiations in North Korea, as just a few examples, seriously undercut the intellectual basis not only for the Bush worldview, but also McCain's. Obama must go on the offensive to expose this and to better convince Americans that we are in the grips of a failed foreign policy theory that will only be continued and perpetuated by McCain to determinant of US interests abroad.
• Deploy Your VP Wisely: if conventional wisdom stands up, Obama will pick a VP this week with strong foreign policy and national security credentials. Whomever is chosen, Obama must deploy them as a persistent and effective weapon against McCain on foreign affairs and national security. The VP candidate must also work to assuage concerns among voters about Obama's perceived "youth and inexperience." Just as Cheney made Bush seem more palatable to American voters who were worried about his ability to manage complex policy issues, so too must Obama's VP convince voters that he has a strong team around him to make up for any potential deficiencies of inexperience he might have on foreign affairs.

Comments

[HawkOnTheLeft]

I think Joe Biden can deliver the attack message with force, but, as banal as it sounds, he needs a better tag line.

"Failed Policy?" Naptime. "Distracted" Worse. "We are not safer" Wish-washy at best.

*** Our enemies are stronger because we invaded Iraq. ***

This argument is both easy to prove and in your face. Just run down the list of enemies:

Worried about what Iran will do next in Iraq? Iran wasn"t in Iraq before we invaded! Iran is stronger because we invaded Iraq. Concerned al Qaeda in Iraq will regroup? There was no al Qaeda in Iraq before we invaded! Al Qaeda in Iraq is stronger because we invaded Iraq. Upset about the spread of radical fundamentalist Islam? Iraq was 100% secular " now 40% of the country suffers under Sharia law. The radical Islamists are stronger.

And al Qaeda and the Taliban? We could have crushed them if we had sent 30.000 extra troops there rather than 130,000 to Iraq. The true terrorists are stronger because we invaded Iraq.

A set of allied tag lines include:

¢ Republicans have no business telling anyone how to make America safe.
¢ Given their track record, there"s no way they should make the next decision.
¢ "The Emperor"s new clothes" " the Republican "mantle of national security", vaporizes when you ask the simple question: are our enemies stronger?

Want to pass the tag line along to Joe?

[citizenbfk]

It sounds like you want Obama to be like John McCain or John Wayne or whatever other warmonger you think would appeal to the American people. And you want to start a war with Iran to win the Jewish vote and Florida!?

Go back and become a Republican.

[charmon5]

the "Surge" again....good grief! If I pour gasoline on my house and light a match, am I then a hero for calling the Fire Department to put it out? "Well it worked didn't it? The fire was doused..." The same might be said for that logic...

[RRundbaken]

Go after McCain's self described strongest attribute: foreign policy. Point by point show how he has made terrible decisions, This guy is living and dying with the surge. Go after it. He wanted to invade Iraq before Bush did. Define him before voters get things set in their mind. And Biden - GREAT CHOICE I WOULD VAE VOTED FOR HIM FOR PRESIDENT - is the guy to go after him on this point. McCain is a BUsh clone go get him Joe!

[KDelphi]

I dont believe peopel are pulling away from Obama because they l;ike McCain--what is growing is the"undecided"!! I am a Democrat and exttremely Liberal but, I really have no idea what Obama is going to do about problems that are effecting my community--health care, poverty, food price,filthy food, crappy schools, (faith based initiative ass), I know he thinks you have to make $250,000 oa year to be "rich"! ..he needs to tweak this--people tried to tell his campaign this in Ohio---but they were so sure they weregoing to "turn the South blue again". I iknow you hate Ohio--you think i CHOOSE to live here? In 2004, it WAS stolen in Ohio, and if the DNC and DLC had LISTENED to Tubbs Jones/Boxer---Kerry might be president. I dont get it...how is this GLORIOUS Convention going to sit with someone who is tryingt o keep the elec. on and fought for 2 wks (with the peopel Obama wants to "put in charge" opf our "new health care" plan) to get a Rx that i have been taking for 25 yrs!!THIS is the stuff that MUST change! You want McCain elected? Keep it up lay off the tech stuff--I get the internet as a gift--it isnt just "elderly"--alot of peoel around here have had ot have their internet Shut OFF! . I just wish I could name ONE issue whre Obama is solidly onthe side of the "little guy"..sorry, typing, RA

[DHFabian]

Obama's sharp turn to the right (er..."clarification" to those naive souls who mistook Obama for a progressive) has damaged the campaign. Up until then, Obama was a shoo-in. Too bad. Obama has certainly lost a great deal of support by declaring his pro-war war/anti-poor agenda. It's painful to realize that Obama will continue with "business as usual", but based on the fact that America's progressives have proved unwilling to stand up and DEMAND change, I suppose we get what we deserve. Folks (with the money to do so) will head off for the convention this week, where all dissent will be kept in a tidy box, out of view, and all will behave as required. It'll be fun, and remember to bring your camera. There will probably be another big convention gala in 4 years, with people carrying the same signs for the same causes they've been espousing since 1980. The next president will be a Republican, and we'll repeat this tiresome cycle all over again.

[tyger]

We just need one point more. It's a long race no hurry to get to the end, want to make it over line first. Haste makes waste.

[Joedlh]

I agree with four of the five points. Obama should recognize the Iran issue for what it is: a red herring put up by those who thrive by manufacturing an enemy and making everybody fearful of them. Everybody is talking about how Iran is building nuclear weapons capability. However, all the deep scrutiny by nuclear watchdogs has failed to provide a shred of evidence that this is so. To be sure, Iran is a threat. But not this year or the next ten years.

I think it would be a better choice to focus on the Afghanistan/Pakistan problem. The real threat is there. Pakistan already has nuclear weapons, yet the Taliban has a strong and growing presence in its affairs. A solution is drastically needed and must not bog down the U.S. as Russia was bogged down -- and ultimately lost. Also, one of Bush's signature failures -- and there are many -- is that Osama Bin Laden has not been brought to justice.

Bin Laden is held to be truly evil by every American. He actually did us harm. Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a disagreeable blowhard who is easy to dislike. But he's not the real threat at this time.

[mjc]

Think this blog is mostly about wishful thinking. This campaign is going to go right down to the wire and whichever candidate is elected will find it difficult to unite this country even after the Nov 4 decision. That is the real problem because the closer one examines Russia's new attitudes and the closer one looks at Iran, or North Korea, the more difficult problems will be in a definitive foreign policy without such a policy looking just exactly like the Bush/Cheney version. Biden would be extremely helpful but that is assuming that Obama is going to win; there are no guarantees anymore.

[OtayPanky]

My guesstimate is that The Bradley Effect is costing Barack 3 - 5 points right now.

Ditto the Hillary effect.

If Barack was white, and Hillary hadn't been running, he'd be up by 10.

And if I was a rich man, yaddle deedle daddle feedle faddle fum...

[texfly]

I agree with idea that Obama's election is not goingto be a cake walk. Since the '60s the USA has become more polarized and have sorted into like-minded camps. This has involved actual migration of people over that time. See Bishop's "The Big Sort". To make matters worse about 80-85% of the electtorate have already made up their minds about this election and the battle is over the last 10% that will decide the outcome. It is going to be a very close election folks no matter what transpires between now and election day. The problems as I see it is that the Republicnas are very loyal to their brand no matter what is brought out about McCain. He could be found mentally incompetent and still not lose any of his base. In fact he might pick up a few more sympathy votes.

The Democratic party MUST register new voters who haven't been involved before in order to win. Plus, the Democrats tend to pay attention to the debate. The attention span of the US electorate is about 10 sec. If you can't say it in 10 sec you shouldn't bother.

Obama may show a large bump in Sept and Oct, but come election day, as Rev Wright has said, "the chickens will come hoem to roost". It's said state of affairs, but unfortunately it is right on I'm afraid.

[bigkay]

Obama's dragging out of the VP choice and texting his followers is alienating the super voters (seniors) he is just too advanced for the American electorate. My 90 year old father lives in FL. a very important state , he thinks Obama was born in Kenya??? I fear the Repubs are going to win., if the apathetic college crowd are a no show , as they have been in past elections,, we are in BIG trouble.

[mrsbee]

I absolutely agree, texfly...someone on TV said today that Obama's sentences and paragraphs are too long for the people in the rust belt to grasp...that he needs to speak in sentences of a few words for them to understand......he should send Biden (if it is Biden ) to campaign there..he speaks their language...tough and spot on.

[KDelphi]

Please dont tell me you are goingto ignore the poor, working classes etc. ,again. You'll get Reagan esque rewsults if you do...An article I read out of Berkeley the other day just awed me--in its naivete!! Are peopel totally unaware how this economy is effecting peopel making less than $40,000?! So, the rich will "have to sop at IKEA"-I cant AFFORD IKEA!! (I wont shop Wal-Mart--but alot of you "well-healed" people. do. I dont understand how you fail to see where your real weakness is year after year after year....of course McCain will make things worse---I'm an atheist, but obama was not totally W#RONG (VER poorly worded, I would say) that, peopel in my neighborhood WILL retreat to God and Guns if you dont give a damn, or if you are rperceived as os. Saying, "There;s one woman in Indiana..." is nothing. How can you NOT support the nationlized health care plan? Why not the netroots? Gay peoples' rights..who are you gona "win"--the "new blue south"?? BULLSHIT! You are much better off going for blue collar workers and the poor, women, all gender minorities, etc. And you guys say THEY are dumb---why the hell cant you WIN for a change?! If not the Dems, who WILL stand up for the poor, disabled, elderly---if this keeps up, you will be IN these classes--and, then, who wil fight for YOU---

[morypovich]

There was a post earlier stating that American's vote with their gut not their brains, and I agree. But this time around Americans are looking at the trouble that the middle class is enduring while the richest in this country are getting richer than ever. Do you really think they're guts are telling them that McCain is going to change that? No way. The GOP's recklessness has sunk themselves and in November they're going down hard. Justice doesn't always come on time, but it's not off the table. The GOP is gonna lose big,and not only for the Presidential slot, and it's they're own fault. This McCain campaign has got no ground, and it REAKS of desperation. now come on and rock out to McCain with me,BOMB BOMB BOMB, BOMB BOMB IRAN, GO JOHNNY GO!!

[jaygirl]

Do you seriously think that after eight years of shredding the Constitution, ignoring the law, stealing the American treasury, salting all the Federal courts with neo-cons, starting illegal wars, murdering a million innocent Iraqis, breaking the economy, sending jobs to other countries, and destroying the middle class that the people responsible for these actions are going to let the Democrats sail in and take over the United States? I DON'T THINK SO! So before you get too excited about the Presidential race and who is going to be named Vice President and the conventions, gird your loins for the forthcoming take over of this country by the religious right and corporations. Don't be too surprised when Marshall Law is declared and the private corporate armies are marching on the streets of America with their guns at the ready.

[armadillious2002]

Obama must win and the rovian rethugs brought to justice for their fraud and crimes against this country.

[darker]

I agree OBAMA MUST WIN. We must RESCUE AMERICA and the middle class from REPUBLICAN CROOKERY.

Corrupt Republicans TRASHED the ECONOMY, TRASHED middle-income Americans and
want to PARALYZE OUR FUTURE.

do not wimp out.
FIGHT BACK. vote for OBAMA.

[KDelphi]

If the "middle class" is hurting---what is happenign to the poor, the homeless, the sick--do you care? Cause if tyou dont , they wont either---wont spend the gas to go vote,

[KDelphi]

OBAMA is not goingto bring these peopel to justice! He didnt even have the guts to vote right

[UrbanInterloper]

You are wrong on Iran, and misinformed about the views of Jewish American voters, which aren't that unique or unusual.

1) So-called "tough" talk about Iran actually endangers the U.S. the *moment* it passes a candidate's lips. This was true of Clinton's "totally obliterate" statement as well as McCain's "bomb, bomb, bomb" singing, both of which strengthened the anti-American statements made by Ahmadinejad by playing right into his hands. Obama needs to call this out for what it is: reckless, yellow-bellied, Bush-style bullying that endangers the lives of U.S. citizens. Not if McCain wins in November, but *right now*.

2) Jewish Americans overwhelmingly favor diplomacy with Iran over military action:

http://www.jstreet.org/page/media-advisory-new-survey-american-jewish-community

3) Obama already has 62% of the Jewish American vote, and the only Jewish demographic he does poorly with is Orthodox, which poll 77% for McCain (see link above). Considering that Jewish Americans number roughly 5 million, and that about 10% of that population is Orthodox, we're talking about roughly 500,000 people, a fraction of whom actually vote. And Obama has 1/5 of these conservative-leaning voters anyway.

So basically, Jewish Americans think and vote like other Americans, most of whom don't want reckless loudmouth warmongering.

[UrbanInterloper]

Ok, now I'm the one who's (slightly) misinformed. The U.S. Jewish population has risen to nearly 6 million, and I apologize for the old information.

http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia_761587494/Jewish_Americans.html

[alvedge]

The is in reply to the Burrell analysis: Re Iran, while appearing tough here, abandoning every nuance by Obama in this very complex situation must be carefully considered. The tough line might best be wedded with the idea of tough , direct di[intelligent and , where our overwhelming power is adequate precondition to achieve an accommodation that will leave iraq acceptably stabilized and the nuclear energy issue possibility locked up with Nuclear Energy permitted along with unrestricted monitoring by ElBaradei's IAEA Inspectors. Be alert to paint McCain's foreign policy comments as those of a carelessly risky, faux patriotic, ill-considering gut responder where the most careful,even patient, thoughtful analysis is required before leaping into unnecessarily provocative even coercive responses. Remember the old anti-Goldwater ad ending in a mushroom cloud.
An as for Afghanistan, be careful not to see this as amenable to a military solution. This could be tougher than Iraq for military address. More troops there may actually arouse greater country wide anger at the presence of foreign forces and the government we support. What we may mistake as just Taliban could become a national insurgency.