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Daniel Dicker

Daniel Dicker

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Oil Speculation Continues Unabated -- $5 Gas Next?

Posted: 04/ 4/11 06:31 PM ET

While prices at the pump shoot over $4 a gallon, five United States senators are calling on the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to investigate whether gas prices are being manipulated. The job of assuring that our energy markets are fair actually falls not upon the FTC but upon the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), but it's had little success to date at curbing oil speculation and slowing this latest run-up in price. The senators may be hoping that the FTC, using a newly crafted 2009 law, can lend a hand.

There's good reason for Senators Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.), Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) to be frustrated with the CFTC. The Dodd-Frank Financial Reform bill, signed into law on July 21, 2010, mandated that the CFTC write rules for the oil markets designed to stop speculation from controlling prices on crude oil and gasoline and driving them to astronomical levels, as they did in 2008. The bill also demanded that these rules be in place and working by February of this year.

There's just one problem: Those rules haven't yet been written and approved.

They haven't been written largely because of the pushback that the CFTC has received from the traders that make massive profits from the financial oil markets and the advocacy groups and lawyers that represent them. As the CFTC has proposed new rules, they've been met by a who's who of derivative traders and their advocates arguing for the status quo and urging caution, including PIMCO, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, the Futures Industry Association (FIA) and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) -- to name only a few. The lawyers arguing their case are predictably the best, brightest and most expensive in Washington, including attorneys from Alston & Bird, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, Patton Boggs, Sullivan, Cromwell and Skadden, Arps.

Under this pressure, the CFTC has buckled and thrown in the towel on much of the needed rulemaking, at least for now. To take one example, the Commission has given up trying to craft a rule on position limits in oil derivatives until at least 2012, and position limits is only one of thirty complex rulemaking areas the CFTC has acknowledged it must tackle before its mandate is complete.

If these five senators are serious about restoring fair pricing to the oil market, and not merely acting outraged for the sake of their constituents, they will likely not find the Federal Trade Commission better equipped to answer their call. All of the tools at the federal government's disposal that could be used to reduce the speculative interest in oil -- in trading, clearing and reporting -- reside with the overseeing regulatory agency: the CFTC.

Moreover, it's hardly assured that even the completion of the CFTC's rulemaking mandate, if it ever comes, will make prices fair. Investment in paper barrels of oil from both commercial funds and individuals is the single most important speculative source driving energy prices higher. A ban of both commodity index funds and exchange-traded funds that use commodity futures, removing much of this investment, would be an important and instantly measurable first step. So far, however, a ban of these instruments is not even being considered.

But it's important to remember that chasing destructive speculative activity out of a commodity market is not an impossible task. In January 1980, the Federal government and the exchange overseeing silver futures trading, the COMEX, took collaborative action: In a series of draconian but necessary measures, the exchange instituted a "liquidation-only" restriction for the market, forcing speculators to either take delivery of contracts or find massive credit for their holdings while the Federal Reserve blocked commercial lenders from extending that credit. The impact was immediate: Within three months, prices dropped 77%.

The example of silver in 1980 shows that the tools are available and that only with the combined will of the industry and our government can we restore fair prices to commodities. Whether we see such will in action to help lessen oil prices for consumers, however, remains to be seen.

 
 
 

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While prices at the pump shoot over $4 a gallon, five United States senators are calling on the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to investigate whether gas prices are being manipulated. The job of assu...
While prices at the pump shoot over $4 a gallon, five United States senators are calling on the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to investigate whether gas prices are being manipulated. The job of assu...
 
 
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05:40 PM on 04/26/2011
Simply we do not have a market that is predicated on supply and demand. The ability to buy a stock or commodity on essentially "credit" was the precursor of the Great Depression. Like always we do not learn from our mistakes and we are doomed to repeat them. Traditional economic principles are not in play here.
08:08 AM on 04/18/2011
We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the most recent surge in the price of oil - from around $90/barrel to $110/barrel - followed our intervention in Libya and the halt in exports from that country. The extra billion dollars a day that oil consumers are consequently paying to oil producers (Russia, Iran, Venezuela, et al.) should be considered part of the war's cost and dwarves the cost of the actual military operation.

Libya was exporting 1.5 million barrels a day, which doesn't seem like much in a world where 80 million barrels are produced daily, but remember we are talking exports. Global crude oil exports are about 40 million barrels/day; so, while Libya's production is only 2% of global production, its exports constitute 4% of global trade, a significant loss to the global market.

If you believe the current high price of oil results from the general turmoil in the Middle East, not the war in Libya, consider this timeline:
Date Event Price of Oil (WTI)
12/17/10 Young marketeer immolates himself in Tunisia $88
1/14/11 Tunisian President Ben Ali flees country $88
1/22-27/11 Algerians & Yemenis protest, Egyptians occupy Tahrir Square $85
2/11/11 Egyptian President Mubarak resigns $83
2/15-21/11 Protestors shot in Bahrein; Libyan rebels take over Benghazi $83
2/26/11 UN imposes sanctions on Libya $95
3/27/11 No-Fly Zone approved $97
4/1/11 Libyan rebels retreat from Brega $105
04:08 PM on 04/23/2011
It looks convincing to line up events and oil prices, but it doesn't prove that the two are linked causally. They might be, but just the coinciding dates isn't proof of that.
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Daniel Dicker
11:18 PM on 04/05/2011
MrStat1 is unfortunately wrong -- the global price of oil is financially set in New York and has been for years. a read of my book would give much better understanding.

Ditto for idgafkurt's comments -- indeed, the understanding of 'fair' prices for oil and other commodities is a complex issue as they have few metrics to point to as other capital markets, like stocks and bonds have -- one thing is sure though, the dollar's value is far less correlated to oil than almost everyone expects -- again, my book does a far more complete job in explaining the oil markets -- thanks for your cogent comments.
MrStat1
I believe in the rule of law
07:56 PM on 04/05/2011
What this guy doesn't mention is that oil is a globally traded commodity. The world markets set the price, not New York. Even if a ban was put in place in the US oil will still be traded on the world's markets, where the US has no jurisdiction, and when Exxon imports a barrel of oil it will be at the world market price, not what the CFTC says is fair. And the government cannot order Exxon to only pay $90 a barrel and not the let's say $100 barrel the seller is charging.
07:37 PM on 04/05/2011
Dan, what is the "fair" cost of oil and how did you determine it? Articles like this show a complete lack of basic economic understanding. Oil, like gold, silver and all other commodities are sky high due to gov't policy, not wild speculation. With our Gov't, Fed and Treasury all pursuing a weak dollar policy this is the outcome - inflation. Oil is priced in dollars, dollars are worth less so the cost goes up. On top of that we've pumped so much money into the economy that it is flowing to safety and in this case safety is commodities, like oil. In conclusion, the high price of oil is not due to speculation but due to our weak dollar, easy money policy. Look at any era w/ a strong dollar policy and you'll see low oil prices and innovation; look at era's w/ weak dollar policy and you get high oil prices and no innovation...
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Malcolm Hensley
Last of the Reagan Republicans
04:59 PM on 04/05/2011
See we know this and they want to give the traders a new toy!

It's called Cap & Trade!

Sorry, knowing what these same traders did to the NOx market in 1999 it just confirms a suspicion I have that the people backing Cap & Trade are either Stooges for Wall Street or Cronies!

As for Gasoline I got feed up with being jerked around by the traders and decided I didn't like sending my money to the likes of Hugo Chavez or Gaddafi and bought a CNG (compressed natural gas like many people heat their house with) vehicle.

I fill my natural gas vehicle up at home every evening, it cost less than $1.00/gasoline gallon equivalent!!!!

At the present cost of $4.00/gallon for gasoline it's like my car money equivalent is getting 140 miles per gallon!

And I just smile every time I pass a gasoline station!
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hrpmap
Retired man still active..
01:53 PM on 04/05/2011
This is from the USGS and Obama has to know it. .
http://www­.usgs.gov/­newsroom/a­rticle.asp­?ID=1911
More info
http://www­.eia.doe.g­ov/oiaf/ae­o/otherana­lysis/aeo_­2009analys­ispapers/a­nsng.html
The above sites, government sites, back up what this man is telling us. And so does Ken From the biggest name in the oil industry. People we are being played like afiddle as syaing goes.
http://www­.youtube.c­om/watch?v­=NbakN7SLd­bk
 
10:48 AM on 04/05/2011
The utter lack of serious reporting in the mainstream media on the obvious speculation that is driving up the price of oil is a disgrace. We have to rely on real investigative reporters like Matt Taibbi to show how Goldman Sachs manipulated this market and there is no reason to believe it is not still going on.
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democrats for life
republicans need not apply
02:53 AM on 04/05/2011
5/gallon for gas would throw is in a deep depression
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tacevad
American SS Card Carrying Socialist
09:23 AM on 04/05/2011
I fear it is too late at $4/gallon
oilfield
large employer per obamacare
11:52 PM on 04/04/2011
energy costs will necessarily skyrocket.....
10:57 PM on 04/04/2011
The oil price is manipulated higher in the comex but the opposite is done in the silver market by the big commercial paper pushers... all to keep the dollar 'strong'. In 1980 the hunt brothers weren't paper speculators trying to manipulate the price, they were taking physical delivery and were breaking the comex. Volcker increased interest rates massively to 'rescue' the dollar at the same time the liquidation order came for the silver market which collapsed the silver prices and bankrupted the hunt brothers. I'd like to see the big commercials take delivery of a 1 million barrels of oil... deliver it right to their doorstep on wall street.
The Baltic Dry Index is very close to the same level as the 2008 crash yet oil has skyrocketed ... makes no sense except deception in the paper markets. The manipulation works both ways depending on the objective. Perhaps Jeffrey Christians' statements at a CFTC hearing with GATA regarding gold paper markets being 100 times more in volume than the underlying physical market can bear would shed some light on how corrupt it all is.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jok3XLBz_SI&feature=related
at 5:54 it is admitted
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Carl Caroli
I just don't understand people
10:32 PM on 04/04/2011
Too many senators take too much money to do nothing. Follow the money, as always.
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Reno Fickler
Head Lifeguard/Dead Sea Marina
08:52 PM on 04/04/2011
A gallon of gas in Saudi Arabia is 10 cents. Their govt owns all phases of production.
From the well to the consumer in the USA, the product is bought and sold TWELVE times.
Of course, they all make money, hence $5 gas. Here our fed and state gas taxes are four times the cost of Saudi gas.