Put down that "The End is Nigh" sign and take a look at these numbers: The Dow has rallied 20% from its low on March 9th. New and existing home sales are up 5%. Demand for big-ticket goods actually increased last month for the first time in almost a year. Even retailers are seeing lower than expected dips -- their downward spiral's slowed to a downward stumble.
Economists are cautiously optimistic. The sky is no longer falling, they say. It's hit bottom. So the only direction our economy can go is up! Or sideways.
"I feel a lot better about seeing a recovery in 2010 today than I did a week ago," an economist told CNNMoney. He warned, though, that the recovery will be tepid -- not arriving till late next year.
A sunnier group just predicted the recession will end in late 2009.
Others, while hesitating to declare that the worst is over, called these hopeful signs but will "wait for several months of increases" before calling this the bottom. "For me to be encouraged, I'd have to see a trend," one analyst told the AP.
Of course I've panned financial experts in the past. (They're easy targets) And just this week Nicholas Kristof compared them to chimps throwing darts at a board. The truth is, whether we're at the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end or the middle of the middle of the recession is anyone's guess. But five economic indicators steadying or slowly (knock on wood) ticking up is something even a laymen like myself can see as a watershed. And I'm not alone: The number of Americans who told Gallup they think the economy is improving doubled in the past two weeks, increasing to 29% -- the highest positive number since July 2007.
Is this the kind of reassurance you can take to the bank? Bad metaphor, but a good question. We'll have to wait and see.
