Seven Lean Years in Middle East Diplomacy

Secretary Rice continues her swing through (the non-boycotted states of) the Middle East, but the Israeli media has already drawn its own conclusions on the prospects of her producing any kind of breakthrough. The secretary's visit is forgotten and Israel is abuzz with the breaking story of secret peace talks that produced a draft text for a future Israeli-Syrian agreement. A respected journalist, Akiva Eldar, who seven years ago exposed the Shepherdstown document of the last formal Syrian-Israeli talks, ran the story in Haaretz. The full text can be read here and the story here. While neither is as detailed nor dramatic as the Geneva Initiative model Israeli-Palestinian peace treaty, the new text goes another step in demystifying the parameters of a comprehensive Israeli-Arab peace.

Eldar's piece details a series of meetings between the former Director-General of Israel's Foreign Ministry and ex-Ambassador, Alon Liel, and US-based associate of the Syrian leadership, Ibrahim Suleiman, mediated and hosted by European government officials. The talks took place between January 2004 and the summer of 2006. The governments in both Damascus and Jerusalem have denied that the talks received any official blessing. It does seem that this was an exploratory back channel that probably got closer to leadership circles on the Syrian than the Israeli side.

The story comes against the backdrop of continued US refusal to engage with Syria (or Iran) and the President's escalation speech, which suggests an intensification of the conflict with these parts of the Iraqi neighborhood. This rejectionism flies in the face of the Baker-Hamilton recommendations that call for a "New Diplomatic Offensive," whereby the US directly and unconditionally engages with all of Iraq's neighbors and returns to the active pursuit of Israeli-Arab, including Israeli-Syrian, conflict resolution. The ISG Report emphasis on the need for a diplomatic surge was echoed in last week's Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearings with Secretary Rice. Indeed, the Secretary of State cuts a forlorn figure as she scuttles through the region bereft of ideas or initiative. This demotion of the role of diplomacy has left the State Department that Rice leads very much playing second fiddle not only to the DOD but also to the financial-sanctions-slapping Treasury.

Secretary Rice should have a very full agenda to discuss with Syria, and Damascus should have been on her trip itinerary. The four senators (Dodd, Kerry, Nelson and Specter) who recently visited with President Assad heard firsthand of the Syrian willingness to constructively engage on the Iraqi, Lebanese and Palestinian issues. The worn out mantra that "the Syrians know what they have to do" and the administration's continued confusing of engagement with endorsement when it comes to dealing with one's adversaries, carries too heavy a price. The new peace plan shows that serious people on both sides will continue to attempt to fill the vacuum left by the desultory decline in diplomacy from Washington. Interestingly, the text of the draft Syrian-Israeli agreement is similar to the provisions outlined in the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group Report.

The unofficial back channel talks dealt with the four pillars that would need to be addressed in any future Israeli-Syrian negotiation: security, water, normalization and borders. The main innovation in the draft text is the idea of establishing a "park" adjacent to the Lake of Tiberias on what would be the new (old) Syrian side of the border. The park area would guarantee continued Israeli freedom of access to what is the most disputed territorial component of any future border arrangement. Other than that, the paper outlines a border demarcation based on the 1967 lines, the establishment of demilitarized and reduced military presence zones, provisions for early warning stations and international security oversight, water use arrangements, and a timetable for full withdrawal and full peace.

The leaking of the document serves as a timely if painful reminder that the solutions for a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace are known - what is lacking is the internal or external political will and leadership to make them a reality. Last week, former officials and negotiators from Israel, Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, the Gulf, the US and Europe met in Madrid to mark the 15th anniversary of the conference convened by Jim Baker and the grown-up Bush after the first Iraq war. A similar effort today is even more necessary from an American perspective and more acceptable from an Israeli and regional perspective, given the dangerous destabilization that the Middle East has undergone.

We have just marked the seventh anniversary since the last Israeli-Syrian political negotiations, hosted by President Clinton at Shepherdstown in January of 2000. Seven lean years. President Bush seems determined to escalate on the Syrian and other fronts and to continue to forego political diplomatic solutions. If the serious recommendations of the ISG wise elders and American public opinion against escalation and in favor of diplomacy are signs that the President does not understand, then maybe he should turn to his own preferred sources - according to the Bible, seven lean years were really enough.