As voters soured on the Bush Administration over the past three years, the political environment rapidly deteriorated for the GOP. Today, Republicans are weighed down by their party label, and any candidate who comes to be perceived as a typical Bush Republican is in grave risk.

That simple national dynamic...

It increasingly looks as though this close election may be determined by investments on the ground, in local precincts across the country, an area of the campaign that Barack Obama's organization and supporters have excelled at.

But this is not the type of edge pollsters pick up on, making any...

Are Democrats even daring to hope for a post-convention bounce? John Kerry got none whatsoever in 2004, and Barack Obama’s post-June 3rd and post-European trip upticks were short-lived. And on Friday, John McCain’s vice-presidential announcement just hours after Barack Obama delivered his acceptance speech looked like it could be enough...

Pollsters have been productive in the week before the Democratic Convention. In the last 24 hours, they put out eight surveys from states that are rated toss-ups or lean, including polls from three of the big four (MI, FL, and PA). And after a week of worrisome results for Democrats,...

**Updated with new Indiana poll **

It’s a good thing for Democrats that their convention is just around the corner and that they will soon regain control of the race with Obama’s vice-presidential pick. While none of these most recent polls are particularly alarming -- Obama is ahead in both...

Only two presidential polls were released over the week-end, but they are both important in what is becoming a presidential roller-coaster, much like the 2004 election (on this day four years ago, Electoral-Vote.com had John Kerry leading George Bush 327 to 211 EVs) -- quite a contrast with the...

Presidential polls have brought few surprises over the past few weeks, with surveys in most battleground states finding surprisingly steady results -- for instance yesterday when Obama was, as usual, narrowly ahead in Colorado, a bit more in Iowa and tied in Virginia. But today’s polling delivery does contain...

Yesterday's poll results all centered on crucial battleground states:

• In Colorado (polling history), PPP finds Obama holding on to his lead from July, 48% to 44%.

• In Virginia (polling history), SUSA has the two candidates locked in a toss-up, with McCain at 48%...

In a campaign season in which most polling news tends to bring good news to Democrats, yesterday's delivery is remarkably strong for the McCain campaign and should serve as a reminder that, however much red states like North Carolina and Alaska have shifted blue, Obama is very far from having...

As both presidential campaigns have started airing their first ads and hiring staffers in various battlegrounds, the time has come for more definite decisions on what states ought to be contested and what constituencies ought to be targeted. Last week, Obama started to air his first general election...

In a video message released to his supporters on his website this morning, Barack Obama announced he is opting out of public financing. He will be the first candidate ever to rely on private donations to finance his general election campaign, a not unanticipated but controversial move that will...

• Unlike PPP's 11% lead...

Quinnipiac released its eagerly anticipated set of swing state polls, and after weak showings by Obama in the waves of early April and mid-May, he has improved significantly this month in solidifying the support of registered Democrats. Though his lead in all three of these states fails...