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Daniel Nichanian
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Blog Entries by Daniel Nichanian

McCain, Obama Ad Strategies Echoed In Congressional Races Across Nation

Posted September 30, 2008 | 10:28:25 (EST)

As voters soured on the Bush Administration over the past three years, the political environment rapidly deteriorated for the GOP. Today, Republicans are weighed down by their party label, and any candidate who comes to be perceived as a typical Bush Republican is in grave risk.

That simple national dynamic...

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Obama Advancing On The Ground, Under Pollsters' Radar

Posted September 11, 2008 | 10:54:19 (EST)

It increasingly looks as though this close election may be determined by investments on the ground, in local precincts across the country, an area of the campaign that Barack Obama's organization and supporters have excelled at.

But this is not the type of edge pollsters pick up on, making any...

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Polls: Obama Wins Post-Convention Bounce

Posted September 2, 2008 | 11:55:38 (EST)

Are Democrats even daring to hope for a post-convention bounce? John Kerry got none whatsoever in 2004, and Barack Obama’s post-June 3rd and post-European trip upticks were short-lived. And on Friday, John McCain’s vice-presidential announcement just hours after Barack Obama delivered his acceptance speech looked like it could be enough...

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Polls: Obama Pre-Convention Numbers Rise In Key Swing States

Posted August 22, 2008 | 09:56:06 (EST)

Pollsters have been productive in the week before the Democratic Convention. In the last 24 hours, they put out eight surveys from states that are rated toss-ups or lean, including polls from three of the big four (MI, FL, and PA). And after a week of worrisome results for Democrats,...

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McCain Gains Nationally, Leads In Florida; Indiana Even

Posted August 20, 2008 | 10:12:17 (EST)

**Updated with new Indiana poll **

It’s a good thing for Democrats that their convention is just around the corner and that they will soon regain control of the race with Obama’s vice-presidential pick. While none of these most recent polls are particularly alarming -- Obama is ahead in both...

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Polls: McCain Leads In Colorado, Ties In Ohio

Posted August 18, 2008 | 11:15:32 (EST)

Only two presidential polls were released over the week-end, but they are both important in what is becoming a presidential roller-coaster, much like the 2004 election (on this day four years ago, Electoral-Vote.com had John Kerry leading George Bush 327 to 211 EVs) -- quite a contrast with the...

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Poll: Obama Leads In Alaska; Campaign Red State Efforts Making Gains

Posted August 13, 2008 | 11:32:41 (EST)

Presidential polls have brought few surprises over the past few weeks, with surveys in most battleground states finding surprisingly steady results -- for instance yesterday when Obama was, as usual, narrowly ahead in Colorado, a bit more in Iowa and tied in Virginia. But today’s polling delivery does contain...

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Polls: Obama Leads In Key Battleground States

Posted August 12, 2008 | 09:40:23 (EST)

Yesterday's poll results all centered on crucial battleground states:

  • In Virginia (polling history), SUSA has the two candidates locked in a toss-up, with McCain at 48%...
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Obama Leading But Losing Ground In Latest Polls

Posted August 1, 2008 | 11:34:05 (EST)

The number of polls released yesterday was overwhelming. Quinnipiac showed tight races in Ohio and Florida, while Obama led in Pennsylvania and in CNN’s national poll. In other presidential polling, we got some more narrow results:


  • For the fourth consecutive day, Obama lost ground in Gallup’s...

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Gallup: McCain Breaks A Long Losing Streak, Barely

Posted July 29, 2008 | 10:16:25 (EST)

What a twist! Last week Obama dominated the news and jumped to his biggest lead ever in Gallup’s tracking poll over the weekend. He also leads in a number of national polls released Monday. So who would expect that yesterday McCain would break a long losing streak and...

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Fifty-State Strategy Gains But The Old Swing States Still Rate

Posted July 25, 2008 | 10:19:02 (EST)

Two election narratives have somewhat paradoxically collided these past two weeks. On the one hand, the shifts in partisan identification and Barack Obama’s determination to change the electoral map have significantly eroded John McCain’s base. On the other hand and despite Obama's shifted strategy, the fact is states...

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New Polls: An Unexpected Uptick for McCain

Posted July 23, 2008 | 09:54:49 (EST)

In a campaign season in which most polling news tends to bring good news to Democrats, yesterday's delivery is remarkably strong for the McCain campaign and should serve as a reminder that, however much red states like North Carolina and Alaska have shifted blue, Obama is very far from having...

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Weekend Roundup: Obama, Afghanistan and the Maliki Non-Denial

Posted July 21, 2008 | 10:27:50 (EST)

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s appeared to be doing everything he could do this weekend to give his statements advocating a timetable for U.S. troop withdrawal maximum exposure. Just days before Obama’s trip to Iraq, Maliki must have known that the American press would be covering Iraq in...

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Obama: Operation Blue Mountains

Posted July 17, 2008 | 09:47:52 (EST)

It’s Wednesday, Project Runway has debuted and it is time for the fourth installment of the biweekly electoral college ratings. The ground continues to shift towards Barack Obama, as the focal point of the election moves further and further into red territory. Two weeks ago, it became...

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RNC Rolls Out First Contrast Ad

Posted July 7, 2008 | 10:39:28 (EST)

News broke Thursday that the RNC was preparing to air its first contrast ad of the general election in four battleground states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The $3 million buy was a first jab at the Democratic Party, a signal of the buying power of the wealthy RNC....

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Democratic Voting Rolls Still Climbing In Pennsylvania

Posted June 30, 2008 | 09:47:08 (EST)

In the weeks leading up to the April 22nd closed primary in Pennsylvania, both Democratic campaigns undertook a massive registration campaign to get as many independents and registered Republicans to become registered Democrats in order to vote for their candidate. The numbers that came out of that effort confirmed...

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The New, More Blue, National Election Map

Posted June 25, 2008 | 13:07:20 (EST)

As both presidential campaigns have started airing their first ads and hiring staffers in various battlegrounds, the time has come for more definite decisions on what states ought to be contested and what constituencies ought to be targeted. Last week, Obama started to air his first general election...

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Obama Opting Out of Public Financing

Posted June 19, 2008 | 10:20:35 (EST)

In a video message released to his supporters on his website this morning, Barack Obama announced he is opting out of public financing. He will be the first candidate ever to rely on private donations to finance his general election campaign, a not unanticipated but controversial move that will...

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The New-Latest Swing-State Polls: Ohio A Toss Up; Florida To Obama

Posted June 19, 2008 | 10:07:59 (EST)

After weeks of not getting a single poll from OH and FL, here is the third Ohio poll in two days -- and a reminder of how much indecision we should expect in polls as long as the race remains a toss-up:

  • Unlike PPP's 11% lead...

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Polls Show Democrats Drawing Together Behind Obama

Posted June 18, 2008 | 14:53:03 (EST)

Quinnipiac released its eagerly anticipated set of swing state polls, and after weak showings by Obama in the waves of early April and mid-May, he has improved significantly this month in solidifying the support of registered Democrats. Though his lead in all three of these states fails...

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