Make HuffPost Your HomePage
Get Email Alerts
McCain Gains Nationally, Leads In Florida; Indiana Even
**Updated with new Indiana poll **
It’s a good thing for Democrats that their convention is just around the corner and that they will soon regain control of the race with Obama’s vice-presidential pick. While none of these most recent polls are particularly alarming -- Obama is ahead in both national surveys within the margin of error in Florida and leading outside of it in Pennsylvania -- they support impressions that McCain has had a strong few weeks:
- A national poll released by Quinnipiac finds Obama leading 47% to 42% -- down from the 9% lead he had last month. That includes 79% of Democrats, versus 83% of Republicans for McCain, and a 6% lead among independents. Obama has a strong lead among women, 53% to 39%. Respondents say they would trust McCain more to deal with Russia -- confirming that Obama has work to do on national security.
- In a second national poll released by the LA Times, Obama is up 45% to 43% (by only 1% when Barr and Nader are included), but he was leading by 12% last month (15% when leaners were included). The poll also finds that 35% “have questions” about Obama’s patriotism. In another sign that McCain’s month of negative ads is working, Obama’s favorability rating has dropped from 59% to 48%! But there are worrisome signs for McCain as well: Obama is more trusted on the economy, 75% think the country is on the wrong track and his supporters are far more enthusiastic.
- UPDATE: SUSA released the very first poll from Indiana in two months yesterday evening. The previous survey (also taken by SUSA) had Obama up 48% to 47% -- a stunning result that had not been confirmed by any other poll. Yesterday, McCain lead 50% to 44% -- but considering that we had gotten no confirmation that the race in this very red state was that tight, it would be unfair to consider this SUSA poll as McCain gaining.
- A month after Obama inched ahead in Florida (polling history) for the first time in Rasmussen polls, John McCain is back in front -- but within the margin of error, 46% to 43% (48% to 46% with leaners). Obama might be alone on air, but his favorability rating is very weak (49% versus 48% unfavorable), especially relative to McCain’s very strong numbers (61% to 36%!). Obama needs to improve his share of the Democratic vote (78%).
- In North Carolina (polling history), McCain also posts some gains in Civitas’s latest poll. Leading by 3% last month, he is now ahead by 6%, 46% to 40%. To the extent that African Americans only represent 18% of the sample, a bit lower than the 19-20% they represented in 2004, it is not surprising that Obama is trailing.
- In Pennsylvania (polling history), Susquehanna finds Obama holding on to a lead, 46% to 41% despite getting only 73% of Democrats. The institute’s last poll was taken in May and had Obama leading by 7%. Obama’s numbers among African Americans are outstanding (98%-0%) but McCain is very strong in the Southwest (up by 18%); that’s a region Hillary Clinton did well in and where McCain is hoping to appeal to white working-class Democrats.
- Worrisome news for Obama in Minnesota, where SUSA finds him ahead within the margin of error 47% to 45%. SUSA’s previous poll from the state had a 1% race, so it is not technically a tightening -- but most polls had found Obama leading by healthier margins up until the past few weeks.
- In Louisiana, there is no surprise in Rasmussen’s latest poll: McCain leads 55% to 38% (57% to 39% with leaners).
Both the Quinnipiac and LA Times national poll have Obama falling from the double-digit region to the 2-5% leads that most polls have shown him hovering around over the past few weeks. That’s the good news for Obama -- he has been pounded by McCain over the past 5 weeks, took a 6-day vacation, and he is now preparing to enter a period in which his financial dominance will be more useful; yet, McCain’s gains are still leaving him short in national surveys. And Obama is confirming his good dispositions in Pennsylvania -- a crucial battleground state in which he has led by at least 5% in every July-August poll.
That’s the good news Democrats can take out of this, but there is plenty of things to worry about as well: McCain’s gains in the LA Times poll and the Rasmussen results with leaners are outside the MoE and they seem to be accompanied with a successful redefinition of Obama, as concerns about the Democrat’s patriotism now appear to be definitely part of the political conversation. Furthermore, this is the third straight Minnesota poll to find McCain pulling stunningly close -- after Quinnipiac and Rasmussen. Finally, and this is something we have been talking about for a while, McCain is not even on air in Florida and North Carolina while Obama is spending millions in advertising; yet, here are two new polls finding McCain inching ahead there (this is the 5th straight Florida poll released in August, and all have shown McCain ahead; Obama led in every Florida survey taken in July).
As for Indiana, the release of that SUSA poll is sure to be among the highlights of this week’s polling: Obama has been spending money here but we had no indication of the state of the race. Given that Bush won the state by 20% in 2004, it was difficult to trust that SUSA poll without any further confirmation. While this survey’s result isn’t as good as that from June, it confirms that Indiana will be a battleground state and that Obama is not wasting his money here.
To sum up: on the one hand, Republicans were worried Obama would take a dominant lead over the summer, that did not happen. On the other hand, the Obama campaign believes it has laid the ground to take the lead in the fall; it knows it has a superior ground game and that it will dominate McCain financially, something it has not really tried to do over the summer months - but how much should there be worried that numbers are not moving in their direction in FL and NC?
These are among the last pre-convention polls that will be released. Soon, it will be a whole new ball game, and the VP picks and conventions will set the tone of the fall campaign. The state of the race on September 5th will surely be very different than that of August 24th - but voters’ impression of the candidates during the summer will surely play a large part of the fall dynamics. We will have to wait a few more weeks to know the significance of this summer tightening.
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
We need to remind people that McCain's calls for lower taxes echo Bush's.
Are you paying less taxes now than 8 years ago?
Not unless you're unemployed or earning less.
Red herring tax refunds fool nobody.
I thought it was a mistake for Obama to go on Rick Warren's Forum. He and his audience are biased. John McCant had the questions and was not even in the building when Warren said he was in a sound proof cone of silence. That was almost like a set up.
However, I believe Senator Obama will win despite the cheat, lying repubs and the MSM owned by wealthy repubs [except for Olberman's show and Jack Cafferty].
Independent for Obama '08
Good. Now maybe the media will scrutinize and pick apart Mc Cane in order to keep the race close.
I live in Phoenix, AZ -- the heart of McCain Country -- and I can report that Obama stickers are on just as many vehicles as McCain stickers. This isn't noted by the MSM, of course. They're into controversy because it sells. It creates eyeballs on their programs. They're owned by Republicans!
People, please don't panic. Simply get up ... get out ... and ask people if they're better off today than they were seven years ago. If they say they're better off, then tell them to vote for four more years of Bush rule. If, however, you get a truthful answer that the economy sucks and they're scared we're headed toward war with Russia now, then encourage them to vote for Change. Tell them Obama equals Change.
Be kind, be truthful, and be supportive. Remember that we all -- Republicans and Democrats alike -- have something in common. We all want to survive and we want to do so with grace and dignity. This past seven years hasn't gone so well. So, let's trust a guy who can THINK! Let's trust a guy who's first instinct isn't to "nuke 'em." And let's STOP being afraid.
Be well, everyone.
THE ONLY WAY I WILL PANIC IF HRC IS NOT THE VP - I WILL HAVE TO VOTE JOHN MCCAIN - I WILL NOT VOTE FOR OBAMA SORRY!!!!!! I AM A WOMAN AND ITS TIME TO CHANGE!!!!!
I am a woman...and you are a very selfish woman....along wiht the rest of the PUMAS and HILLRAISERS.......................you are not entitled to play with our lives.
Break out the paper bag. You will need it to get through the panic attack. Or just to hide your head in shame for being such a stupid troll.
:-)
So, 112985, you're okay with Roe v Wade being overturned? You don't mind if McSame tries to overturn Griswold? (legalizing birth control) You think it's fine that McSame packs the Supreme Court with right wingers? You feel it's great that the Republicans will put the corporations firmly in charge of our country? You want to see health care become non-existant for most Amricans? I know you are angry with HRC, but think about 4 more years of Republican control. They could really finish off the country this time. Please, please, rethink your decision.
that doesn't make sense! If Hil is vp, O is the President so you'd still HAVE to vote for O for Hil to get in..huh?????
AGREED. This is such basic common sense but it is right. Do not allow the mainstream media to divide us up. We are Americans first before we are members of any political party. This is not a football game. It is our country. The Neoconservative Hydra like serpent that controls our government and the mainstream media needs to be extracted. The Neocon's have perverted the Conservative movement and are hiding inside Trojan Horse, John McCain.
Start by being an informed voter : Obama has already stated that he would violate the borders of Pakistan and drop bombs on that country is he deems their fight against terrorists inadequate. He no longer has pacifist credentials.
If McCain is only up six points in Indiana, he's in trouble. Bush won the state twice by comfortable double digit margins.
McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll released yesterday.
"among likely U.S. voters"
Those were the people who went to vote at the LAST election.
Enjoy.
With McCain in the white house this country is going down. He's all about WAR and white Americans are too dumb to see it. They just can see themselves voting for a Black intelligent guy so they go with the devil they know
With Obama in the white house is scary!!!!! he don;t care about nothing but being president!!!!! he is not worried about the economy, babies being born, the war - he wants to be a rock star!!!!! that is scary!!!! he lies - Resco, Aeyers, Wright - he will throw you all under the bus!!!!!
Oy. Such poor trolling. Come on. Even you can do better.
I'm not worried about the polls. The only reason why Obama is down this week is because he was on his euro trip, on his vacation and McCain was left with an open field. In which McCain can't crack 43%. Why can't he close the deal?
One word of adivce however, we need to get on the offense. Forget defending yourself with negative attacks. Obama needs to be proactive and launch attacks on McCain before he does. Obama should have learnt this from the Clintons. And stop throwing everyone under the bus.
Obama 08!
Bradley Affect!
sad.
THE ONLY REASON OBAMA IS DOWN IS BECAUSE HE IS ELISTIST - HOW MANY OF YOU CAN
AFFORD TO GO TO HAWAII??????????
How many of you have seven houses, like McCain? Or is it nine? Or eleven? He can't remember. So why should I know?
:-)
Obama was raised in Hawaii. AND he WORKED for his money; he didn't marry it.
I can.
But then again, I don't have 20 cats to feed.
look up the word Elitist will you! You think you are slamming him but Elite is a compliment.
You tell me which one is more elitist: A father taking his kids to Hawaii where their grandmother lives for the last vacation he's going to get for the next year or a man who wears $500+ shoes riding around in a golf cart who owns houses in multiple states.
Using your own argument "How many of you can afford a $500 pair of shoes? How many of you have more than one home? How many of your homes are across two or more states? How many of you know the price of aviation fuel because your wife hops in her private jet to get around the state because the US highway system is just like a third-world backroad in your state?"
You can take a trip to Hawaii everyday as long as you understand that it's not something that everyone can do and that you aren't disconnected from the rest of the people that you will serve. Wearing a $500 pair of shoes doesn't mean you're out of touch unless you think that everyone can afford them or you don't even know what they cost and don't realize what $500 means to a family of four making $25,000 a year. It's not about what you do, it's about whether you understand or not.
Well, Steelrod, I am very, very, worried. Obamas foreign countries tour was brilliant and McCain tore it down in one fell swoop with the " celebrity " ads. They worked. All of McCains ads are working. Saddleback worked. Why don't the American people know that a vote for McCain is a vote for more war ? Bush destroyed us and McCain will finish us off. Of that I have absolutely no doubt. After 7yrs of death and destruction, McCain is leading in electoral votes. Six weeks ago it was 309 to 164 ; now it's 264 to 274. This is serious. I know Obama has said he wants to have a decent respectful campaign, but that has not happened. NOW is the time for Obama to say to America, " I know I told you that I wanted a respectful campaign and I have tried, but the time has come for me to stop defending myself. I will tell you how I feel this country can be healed and I will point out the differences and the bold face lies,spewed from John McCain, who would rather win an election than tell the American people the truth." Obama has 10 weeks. If he doesn't start delivering knockout punches now, this election is over.
The only thing the polls mean, at this point, is to determine who is perceived to have an advantage at the start of the race ...which hasn't even begun yet. Neither McCain nor Obama are the nominees, but are only presumptive. Also, these polls really have no way to predict the Obama Effect. This is to say, that they aren't measuring the mind-boggling grass-roots, get out the vote network that Obama has organized over the past year. (Whereas McCains "advantage" is POW 'war hero', Obama's is as a "community organizer" Organize is exactly what he has done, and organization is one of the most needed qualities in Washington, right now.) His is the first campaign to use the MSM as an auxillary rather than THE primary medium, whereas his 'on the ground' network, his my.barackobama site etc, are the primary components of his strategy. Because of this, the polls are only showing the tip of the iceburg. The sheer number of people who have contributed financially to his campaign vs those contributing to McCain, is one important indicator, as people who are fired up enough to give their money in these tough times are twice as likely to back up their donations with votes.
That's the worrying part. After 8 years of Bush, and the Democrats having a large generic edge, Obama should have a strong lead at the start of the race.
Has it not occurred to any of yall that people just don't like what they see of Obama? And that they like what they see of McCain?
Look-Americans don't lean to the left-or to the right, for that matter. Americans tend to be solidly middle of the road.
Here's the problem-you Democrats are having yet another McGovern Moment. The hard left wrested control of the party from the relatively sane yet again, and nominated a hard left candidate. You make the mistake of assuming that a lot of Americans think just like you. Sorry. That just isn't true.
McCain is far more centrist than Obama. Obama is HARD LEFT. And Americans are starting to see past the hype, and recognize Obama for what he really is.
And they don't like him.
Any questions?
Yeah I have a question:
Where did you find someone who likes McCain?
I know way too many Republicans and none of them like McCain. Seriously, I have yet to find one who says they LIKE him or his policies.
rgblue: Where do you find someone who likes McCain?
TRIATHLON: The US Marshall's Office, Ya Need A Badge and good rope to handle those evil forces!
The Right-Wing Capital "C" Capitalist side of the (MIC) Military Industrial Complex on the other hand seems to believe that when it comes to those evil forces around the world it is the responsibility of the US Marshall to saddle up those horse, men, and get a good rope even hang" in is too good for them.
So, we have the (PRN) Presumptive Republican Nominee, out front on his White Horse, pistol in one hand, Winchester "76", in the other with a New Rope on the saddle horn. Out of Georgia, Out of the G-8, don"t let them trade in the (EU) European Union Common Market.
Now, you boy"s from (NATO) The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, have to trust the Old US Marshall, you all can handle this one on your own, but we will be BEHIND YOU ALL THE WAY, Way behind. And, all you others with boarders with those Evil Forces, we have more Red Chinese Credit on our cards, and more Israeli Weapons that need to be put to use, and we will be BEHIND YOU ALL THE WAY.
They like him well enough to vote for him instead of Obama and that will be all that matters.
Hard left? Lay off of the pillz. He is actually too moderate or "centrist" for my liking.
I wish 0 was a liberal, He is not.
I have a question also. Where do you get CENTRIST for McCain? He is certainly not centrist on the war or on a woman's right to choose, he favors continued tax cuts for the rich and big oil. He is just MORE George Bushit. Don't like him? Don't like MCCAIN, and I don't like you much either.
Let's do a fact check. There's a great rumor going around that Obama is the "most liberal Senator" in the Senate. The problem is that one survey source says so. Anyone who knows anything about statistics knows that one survey does not the truth make; especially when you don't know the leaning of the surveying group.
Let's see a little more to make informed decisions. Let's also take a look at both liberal and conservative survey groups; just to be fair.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/lib_senator_ratings-2007.html shows how seven different liberal groups rate the Senators. Not surprisingly, McCain rates extremely conservative, even in comparison to other conservatives. Obama ranks as one of the more moderate Dems and is within two positions of Joe Lieberman.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/con_senator_ratings-2007.html shows how eight conservative groups rate the Senators. In this group, McCain score mode moderately; especially compared to his Republican colleagues. Obama, on the other hand, again shows more moderate than the Right would lead you to believe. Again, he is shown within two positions of Lieberman.
Conservatives, including McCain are praising Lieberman for his moderate stance. Across 15 liberal and conservative groups, Obama is within two positions. If Obama's HARD LEFT, then McCain must not have a problem with it since he's hanging around with JL.
Very informative collection of polling data. I'm not in the least surprised by the result. The article should have mentioned the small war that Russia just waged against Georgia. I think that has certainly helped out McCain's numbers.
I agree that a lot of groundwork has been laid. I am kind of surprised that the McCain campaign has been hitting so heavily in the last couple of months. It's going to be extremely difficult to maintain the momentum and a negative campaign for the next few months.
I don't know if I would worry, but if ever there was a time for each of us to lay the groundwork for why we support Obama to our friends, colleagues, and even strangers, it's now. If we don't like the numbers, we can change them. But sitting it out will accomplish nothing. Believe me, I sat out the last two elections thinking it couldn't possibly go the way it did, and have regretted it every since.
The debates will decide it all, that is unless the negative campaign really does influence brain dead Americans.
McCain takes 5-point lead over Obama
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26308429
What caused this drastic change? 2 things;
#1-This statement; "I will win. Don"t worry about that" 18 August 2008
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080818/pl_politico/19381_1
#2-"Obama to General Wesley Clark: Your services not needed"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-clemons/obama-to-general-wesley-c_b_119342.html?page=3
Obama made 2 BIG mistakes. #1-Arrogance with his "I will win" statement, #2-Dissing Wesley Clark who has a huge military following.
Check the dates, put the numbers together, and you will see this is when Obama's numbers started to fall.
The Obama camp better wake up or they are going to see John McCain inaugurated on January 20, 2009.
I think the polls a not accurate because they don't call cell phones. There are many of us that use only cells most importantly the youth voters.
Yup, I agree; this is a major factor that never comes into play in the polling, and I believe it is a far more significant percentage than anyone associated with the polls would ever admit.
Just think about the average poll sampling: a supposedly random sampling of around a 1000 people who are strictly tied to LAND LINES.
That's supposed to be indicative of the public voting preference on a national scale? Out of approximately 300 million people? I think not....
I guess Floridians like the idea of oil rigs off their coast.
Floridians are and have always been right wing idiots. I hate that damned state.
Look at it this way... Florida is where the right wing elderly go to die...
Everyone should just stop focusing so much attention on these BS polls. I believe that a lot of these polls are meant to discourage those voting for the candidate that appears to be at a disadvantage.
Loading comments…
Posted August 20, 2008 | 09:12 AM (EST)