Obama Opting Out of Public Financing
In a video message released to his supporters on his website this morning, Barack Obama announced he is opting out of public financing. He will be the first candidate ever to rely on private donations to finance his general election campaign, a not unanticipated but controversial move that will give him an enormous advantage over John McCain beginning in August when the general election finance rules take effect. In accepting public financing, the McCain campaign alone -- not the Republican party and not special interest groups or so-called 527s -- will be limited to spending $85 million between the convention and Election Day. The Obama campaign, by rejecting public financing, will be able to spend as much money as it can raise -- and some estimates put that figure as high as $300 million.
"This was not an easy decision," Obama, tells his supporters.
I support a robust system of public financing of elections. But the public financing system as it stands today is broken and we face opponents who have become masters at gaming this broken system... I am asking you to try to do something that has never been done before... to declare our independence from a broken system and run the type of campaign that reflects the grass roots values that have already changed our politics and brought us this far.
The conventional wisdom has long been that Obama would massively outraise John McCain and bury him during the general election campaign with advertisements and a ground campaign in all 50 states that would expand the electoral map, testing McCain's vulnerability in states like Texas, Montana and Georgia, which are not expected to vote Democratic but might, and so will force McCain to defend his turf with resources he could be spending elsewhere.
Indeed, Obama's prodigious fundraising ability terrifies Republicans. If the more than 1.5 million donors who have contributed to Obama's primary campaign give just $100 to his general election effort, that already represents more than $150 million -- and you can be sure that many will donate much more. Some are already mentioning the possibility of Obama raising more than $300 million just for the general election, a stunning sum to be able to spend in just over two months. With McCain assured of choosing public financing, the mere $85 million he will have to spend in the same time period would make it hard for him to survive the Democratic onslaught in key swing states.
But as the general election is kicking into high gear, it is unclear just how significant Obama's advantage will be. In fact, there are a number of question marks about both campaigns' fundraising plans and abilities.
McCain and the FEC
The Republican's fundraising has been at times too anemic and the GOP base is too disgruntled for him to take the risk of forgoing public financing -- and the fact that no candidate has done so until now underscores the extent of the gamble. The fact is, however, that McCain may well be excluded from accepting public financing. The FEC needs to approve his request and for now that committee still does not have a quorum to take any such decision. The Senate stalemate over new appointments that was at the origin of this situation got partly resolved mid-May, but there still have been no new votes on appointments.
Another question is whether the FEC might attempt to punish the McCain campaign for not using public funds in the primary despite using the promise of doing so to secure grants from banks at the end of 2007 (more details about this controversy here). McCain took advantage of the FEC's inability to rule on the matter because it lacked a quorum to spend money over the limits that are allowed for candidates who accept public financing.
The RNC
Campaign money is flooding to the RNC. Keeping up with tradition, the national Republican party is massively outraising its Democratic counterpart. The RNC finished the month of May with more than $40 million in the bank compared to more than $4 million for the DNC. Since most of the RNC's funds help the Republican nominee in a presidential year, this is giving the Republicans hope that they will remain roughly on par with the Obama campaign. Their calculation is that the current cash-in-hand of the respective campaigns added to that of the DNC and RNC has the two parties at the same level.
This is part of the reason Obama is opting out of public financing. He can raise more then McCain and keep control of the funds.
In any case, there are a few problems with the RNC analysis. For one, the reason Obama does not have that significant a cash-in-hand advantage over McCain right now is that he has been spending massively to defeat Clinton (spending that will incidentally come in handy in the fall since a lot of it consisted of ads in states like PA, OR and even MT, which Obama will attempt to win in the fall). McCain would be looking at a deficit that would surpass $100 million -- potentially even $200 million. There is very little the RNC could do to keep the McCain campaign afloat under this scenario.
Obama and public financing
The final question mark has been answered today. Obama has made the bold move of eschewing public financing, a move the Mccain camp has been dreading and trying to pressure Obama not to take. Indeed, the McCain campaign has long been demanding Obama to respect what they call his "pledge" to take public financing if McCain took public financing. Obama had taken no such pledge but had said that he would "aggressively pursue an agreement." The GOP thought they had him committed, however, and that he would look like a flip-flopper if he reneged. But in the last few months it has become increasingly obvious how big a financial advantage Obama would have without public financing, and today he took the option off the table.
Obama said he would accept public financing if a deal could be struck in which the RNC would curb its spending. "I won't disarm unilaterally," he added. The RNC's massive financial advantage over the DNC would mean that Republicans would have much more money to spend if both campaigns limited themselves to $85 million. Entering a binding agreement to not spend more than his opponent would have constitute a wasted opportunity for Obama and his amazing grassroots fundraising operation, no matter what deal he could have made with the RNC to curb its spending.
Read more at Daniel Nichanian's blog, Campaign Diaries.
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McCain said he'd run an honest campaign and then stood idly by while minions of the G.O.P. took liberties with Mrs. Obama. What did the old codger do? He did nothing. To add insult to injury, he let his plagiarizing, drug stealing Stepford wife come out and add fuel to the fire (for what that was worth). No, I don't blame Obama one bit. Why should he play the game by rules that suit the G.O.P. when they have shown in no uncertain terms that they won't respond in kind. The folks that want to dash on Obama over this should really think about what they're doing. I wonder if you'd not pull out the stops if someone did the same to you. Obama is not fighting unfairly, he's fighting hard and within the rules. Good for him.
So let them go crazy while Obama gets our small donations from more and more of us.
PLEASE people, stop bashing McCain so much! Here's why: on HuffPo there is a writer who thinks McCain will not be the candidate come election time
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-rosenbaum/when-mccain-drops-out_b_107236.html
and that REALLY scares me, since it is the only sensible thing the Republicans could do to face Obama. Let them spend all their money "putting lipstick on the pig" and let's pray McCain stays healthy enough to stay in and lose.
Had Barack Obama made the decision to accept public financing for the general election, it would have been akin to financial Affirmative Action for McCain. The playing field would have been artificially leveled. If McCain can't raise what he needs from the general public, shame on him. Believe me, if McCain had the fund raising apparatus that Senator Obama has, we wouldn't even be having this conversation.
Hey, O's huge individual on line donor effort has already revolutionized American politics forever. O is not going to owe anyone but the American people anything once he's elected. This is grass roots politics at its very best. The talking point here is that O is opting out of taxpayer financing of his campaing, and is embracing the first true public financing in the history of American politics!
Politics as usual. Obama was never anything more than a politician and he has proven it now. No big shock.
Of course you Obama kool-aid drinkers will twist yourselves and twist the facts to prove that Obama is perfect no matter what he does.
Ho-hum.
You Republicans are just mad because that old fart couldn't raise $300M if his life depended on it. They thought they were dealing with some school boy, but instead, they find they have a worthy opponent that is playing their game better than they are.
Obama is an agent of change. He is changing the way we look at public financing. He is not taking any PAC or Lobbyists money whereas McCain is. He wants to raise the money for his campaign through his own donors and while the detractors are fuming about it, he'll be spending that money in battleground states.
You Republicans better stop Obama watching and start your own fund raising before you get seriously outspent.
Cant stop laughing at-you-Obama supporters. There is so much more to come for you all-I only wish I could see the looks on your faces as Obama betrays every promise and smirks in your faces as he does,
I don't feel betrayed. The man is entitled to change is mind. What I fear is a man who flips from one thing to the other to appease a certain part of the electorate.
But while you are laughing, Obama will be raising money hand over fist. McCain will be taking up collections at the local old folks home.
He would be a fool to take the type of public financing as it is right now. I can’t see the advantage for Obama to turn in 300 million for 85 million. Not to mention that he is proving that there is a different way to use public financing, because this is as public as it gets. Further, McCain started his general election campaign with private funding; this is what I call subterfuge. Keeps the bull hokey flowing, and the real issues will be hidden.
Mr Nichanian,
at last a detailed, fair and simple explanation for O's decision on public financing!
I hope all the people who posted comments of disappointment in politics as usual or O's flip flop, now see
that it's neither politics as usual nor a flip flop!
Thanks, excellent blog!
The Two Obamas
By DAVID
BROOKS
"God, Republicans are saps. They think that they're running against some
academic liberal who would'nt wear flag pins on his lapel, whose wife isn?t
proud of America and who went to some liberationist church where the pastor
damned his own country. They think they're running against some naive
university-town dreamer, the second coming of Adlai Stevenson.
But as recent weeks have made clear, Barack Obama is the most
split-personality politician in the country today. On the one hand, there is Dr.
Barack, the high-minded, Niebuhr-quoting speechifier who spent this past winter
thrilling the Scarlett Johansson set and feeling the fierce urgency of now. But
then on the other side, there's Fast Eddie Obama, the promise-breaking,
tough-minded Chicago pol who'd throw you under the truck for votes."
Obama seems to be a thinker, and he doesn’t mind reconsidering an idea if it doesn’t make since. Unlike many of our leaders that will stick to a lie like it is true no matter the casualties. Bush has sold this Country and Robbed another, so I pray that the people turn from this wicked path.
I'm all for due consideration but this is becoming a habit - when does the tendency to "re-think" become the inability to keep your word? And if you have indeed "re-thought" something, why not just say that instead of all this nonsense about having just discovered that the system is broken?
http://strictlyanecdotal.com/2008/06/22/old-time-politics-cynicism-naivete.aspx
Proving once again.... Obama lied again...
Lied, claiming he’s never been Muslim; he studied the Koran as a child at an Islamic school in Indonesia, where he was registered as a Muslim, Barry Soetoro, taking his stepfather’s name
Lied, said he barely knew Rezko, when in fact he represented Rezko, used Rezko to get a sweetheart deal on his mansion, and tapped Rezko to serve as a major fundraiser for his political career
Lied, said Rezko only donated $50,000 to him; under pressure later revealed Rezko raised more than twice that and also sat on his fundraising committee
Lied, claims to be pro 2nd amendment, denied it was his handwriting on a questionnaire in which he favored a gun ban, later proved it was his writing
Lied, claimed he never heard anti-American, anti-White speeches at his church; his own autobiography indicates he did and as he later admitted under pressure
Declared he could never disown Rev. Wright; two months later when Wright called him out for being a typical politican, Obama disowned him
barbaraw60.........You have spent too much time listening to those Draft Dodging, Lying Bloated Turds, Limbaugh and Hannity.
Try getting your information from reliable sources.
What a wealth of information you have. Did you discover all these facts by youself or just who told you all this. Since you were not with him in Indonesia, you cannot be sure what he studied. And so what if he did. What is wrong with studying the Koran? What are you a communist?
As for Rezko, I'll raise you a Charlie Black. I'll see your 2nd Amendment and raise you Gitmo. anti-American, anti-white speeches, well lets see, can you say Katrina was because of gays and the catholic church is a whore. Hmmmm, seems like I remember somebody denouncing somebody named Hagee. Does that ring a bell?
Nobody is perfect. You ain't seen nothing yet..
I don't get or believe there will be blowback from Obama's decision. Isn't raising campaign funds directly from "the people" a lot closer to "public financing" that accepting $85Million from the government?
Obama's campaign has raised the most money in the smallest increments from the most people in campaign HISTORY. His fundraising IS the essence of PUBLIC FINANCING. End of story.
Barack and his campaign people will do well to just explain that their method of fundraising is more true to the essence of one person one vote than any public financing scheme.
One of the biggest mistakes of his career.
I received a "letter" from Senator Obama yesterday asking me to make a donation. I sent it back with a note saying it was a coincidence this came on the day he "opted out" of public financing. Hey, he even sent me a prepaid envelope! What a guy.
Obama will take heat from the McCain camp and from some campaign finance reform purists. But he would have been crazy to forgo an incredibly successful grassroots fund-raising machine. The new model, based on drawing in massive numbers of small donors over the Internet, is the embodiment of what campaign finance reform has always been about. And with that fund-raising prowess, Obama will be able to "give an election" to many people who otherwise wouldn't have one this year. The Obama campaign will have the money to campaign in many red states where a Kerry or a Gore could not have cost-justified going. Even if those states can't actually be won, there is logic to investing in them to force McCain to spend his scarce funds defending them. And those red-state efforts will certainly boost Obama's eventual nationwide popular vote margin to undergird what will probably be a narrower electoral college majority.
Keep it in perspective. The former CEO of Exxon, Lee Raymond, got $400 million to just go away. Hmmm... do you think we could all get together and give McCain $400 million to just go away, or has his wife got that covered already?
Oh! those poor pathetic GOP whiners who have backed an insane old coot and their equal pathetic sycophants, the Republican MSM.................
For all those GOP opinionators in this morning's (June 20th) NYT/WashPo who are outraged at Obama's rejection of public financing, to all the GOP 527s, to all the GOP lovers everywhere:
Kiss our A** !
You GOP lovers picked this PIG to represent you, this liar who can't get over the Vietnam War Hero crap,this flip-flopper extraordanaire, this woman hater, this old coot who has a gaffe a day uttered from his pea brain, this old coot who referred to his wife as a C word, who can't tell a Sunni from a Shia and wants to have a war to last a 100 years, this paragon of virture who wants to continue this god awful war and get more of our kids killed and would bomb Iran and .....................................
Oink! Oink! to all you McCain lovers...You picked your PIG, the insane old coot, the Bush III, now live with it and leave the rest of us alone to donate as much as we like to our candidate. He, Obama, may not be perfect but he is a hell of a lot better than yours !
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