Poll: Obama Leads In Alaska; Campaign Red State Efforts Making Gains

Presidential polls have brought few surprises over the past few weeks, with surveys in most battleground states finding surprisingly steady results -- for instance yesterday when Obama was, as usual, narrowly ahead in Colorado, a bit more in Iowa and tied in Virginia. But today’s polling delivery does contain a surprise: The first Alaska poll to find Obama ahead (for that matter, this is probably the first Alaska presidential poll in quite a while to find any Democrat ahead)!

• In Alaska (polling history), a poll by the Hays Research group has Obama leading 45% to McCain’s 40%. The survey included Ralph Nader (who got 2%) but not Bob Barr, who is also on the Alaska ballot. The poll’s margin of error is rather high, however, at 4.9%.

• In Kentucky, however, McCain shows little sign of weakening, as he leads Obama 55% to 37% in SUSA’s latest poll. Obama gets 59% of the Democratic vote.

Alaska, of course, is one of the 7 red states (along MT, ND, NC, GA, IN and I believe FL) in which Obama is on the air and organizing but McCain is not. For now, we had already seen Obama rise in ND and MT and erased the Florida lead McCain held through the spring. In North Carolina and Alaska, the margin had been tight for months but McCain has had a consistently narrow lead in both. In Alaska, 5 of the last 6 polls have McCain’s lead within 5% (the 6th had him leading by 10%).

Of course, one Alaska poll with Obama ahead does not change the conventional wisdom about the state - especially as the margin of error is rather high. And we will want to see more polls before concluding that Obama’s investment is having an effect. At the very least, however, it is clear that Alaska’s 3 electoral votes have become a prime pick-up opportunity for the Illinois Senator and that John McCain will soon be forced to divert some resources here. After all, it’s not like either candidate can afford to ignore 3 electoral votes: If Obama adds CO and IA to the Kerry states, he will be 2 electoral votes away from 270.

And on to down-the-ballot races:

• In the Georgia Senate race, the DSCC released an internal poll finding Sen. Chambliss leading 42% to 36% against Jim Martin.

• In the Kentucky Senate race, Senator McConnell leads Bruce Lunsford 52% to 40% in SUSA’s poll. In June, the margin was only 4%. Lunsford needs to improve his share of the Democratic vote.

• In the New Jersey Senate race, Quinnipiac finds Sen. Lautenberg leading only 48% to 41% among likely voters (45% to 37% among registered voters). Republican challenger Zimmer has a narrow lead among independents.

• In AK-AL, LG Steve Parnell released an internal poll that showed him narrowly leading Rep. Young, 42% to 38%. A third candidate, Gabrielle LeDoux, looks to be rising after a wave of advertisement and now gets 8%.

The Kentucky Senate race has been one of the most active in terms of advertisements, as Mitch McConnell has a huge war chest that he has been using to air a mixture of positive and negative spots. He has been hitting Lunsford repeatedly - particularly on energy issues. Lunsford has been airing ads of his own, but McConell has been working hard to overcome his (quite obvious) vulnerabilities since the fall. The race remains a plausible pick-up but McConnell retains a very clear edge.

It is interesting that the margins in the New Jersey and Georgia race are much tighter than that of Kentucky, since neither of those two contests have been considered particularly competitive. In New Jersey, polls have showing Lautenberg ahead by varying margins (the last two showed him leading by 18% and 10%, for instance). Launtenberg is too unpopular and too old to build a stronger margin. But New Jersey notoriously flirts with GOPers to give itself to an unpopular Democrat at the end; we have yet to see evidence of why Zimmer might be more successful than Kean was in 2006.

As for Georgia, it is rated 17th on my latest Senate ratings but Jim Martin’s Senate victory last week certainly upped Democratic chances. The DSCC released a triumphant press release announcing that Georgia was now a competitive race and they will now take this poll they commissioned as a sign that Chambliss is vulnerable. The DSCC’s determination to put Georgia on the radar screen is reason enough to consider a Democratic pick-up plausible (though for now improbable), especially if the DSCC invests a significant sum in the state.

Comments

[pbley68]

The Alaskans always seem to vote for Republican presidents, because the state is situated next to Russia, and the Alaskans obviously think in cold war terms, that the Republicans are cold war warriors who always protect them from Russians.
I bet McCain and his minions will exploit the Georgian conflict, to revive cold war feelings in Alaska, in order to keep the state overwhelmingly Republican.

[poliscibabe]

I live in the western suburbs of Chicago. In 2004 I saw many "W" bumper stickers. In 2008 I have not seen ONE McCain sticker and I have seen more than a few Obama stickers. I think that says a lot. The Western Suburbs were and are the heart of the GOP in the Chicago area.

[kellygrrrl]

how could any Alaskan vote for a Repub after what their Senator has done?

[AKJM]

Obama will never win Alaska.

[Liberoservative]

Wishful thinking.... :)

[xmw]

I bet there are probably people out there including yourself that said he would not be the nominee either. What do you think??? I would get a refund on that crystal ball if I were you.

[akryan]

probally right but if there is any year where this won't be true it's this year. The enthusiam gap is huge. We gave Obama 77% of our delegates. The caucus was like a rock concert. It shut down traffic. People were running through the streets to get in. In February (think real dark and way below zero) this is even more impressive. Like everywhere else the obamabots are like a cult that just gets bigger every day. Sciebamatology. On the other hand McCain came in dead last in his primary. Ron Paul beat him. Even the (very) Republican mayor of Fairbanks (2nd biggest city) endorsed Obama this week. The timing is also good because we have message multipliers with the strong campaign that Begich is running. On top of everything at least half (seriously) the Republicans in the state are under investigation, indicted, or in jail. Even Sarah "I'm more ethical than thou" Palin has a scandal going. So maybe, maybe, AK will elect Obama. I won't hold my breath though.

[AKJM]

Yep, Ryan, as with the rest of the country, Obama should be leading by a huge margin but is not. Due to Alaska's overwhelming "special outlook", largely unreported but similar to the deep South, Obama will not win.

[desertdweller]

For better, or for worse, Alaska has an abundance of self-sufficient, very conservative, America - love it or leave it types. It would be quite a stretch to peel back decades of GOP tradition, despite what's happening in the Senate and House races.

[DRaymond]

It would be interesting to find out why those who voted for Bush in 04 are leaning toward Obama in 08. I am wondering how much of this is a reaction to Ted Stevens' indictment.

[Liberoservative]

I don't pay much attention to any poll until the conventions and the debates are over.....

This back and forth of rise and fall is just something to make those that hang on every poll result nailbiters.......

Once the conventions and debates are over, I look forward to seeing some hard hitting ads coming out of both campaigns and I also look to the "gloves coming off" on the O campaign as they hit hard with TRUTH...

Truth is not going negative... unlike the Rethugs who can only spin LIES and try to fool the American voter. I hope that we are much more informed this year because I am afraid that if we elect another puppet into the Presidency that we will become a total fascist/plutarchy state.......

We need to take our government back and we need to do it now.......

It's broke... Let's fix it.... Vote Democratic!!!!!!

[52novels]

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com has this to say about the Alaska poll:

"The poll getting the most buzz today is in Alaska, where Hays Research Group shows Barack Obama ahead by 5. For the time being, however, I am not including this poll in our averages. Although the poll was published on the Hays website in full view of the public, the fine print says that it was paid for by the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, which qualifies as a Political Action Committee (as well as a union that endorsed Obama). I have e-mailed the pollster to clarify the origins of this poll and may include it based on their responses to those questions -- however, for now, I am considering it an internal poll and leaving it out."

Link: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/todays-polls-812.html

[kathomas1]

Grandpa McCain better start spending some money in Alaska before it's too late.

[Bobrobert]

Obama landslide - 08

:-)

[mvy]

To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

susan

[gbht12]

GO OBAMA, make this country BLUE