Fifty-State Strategy Gains But The Old Swing States Still Rate

Two election narratives have somewhat paradoxically collided these past two weeks. On the one hand, the shifts in partisan identification and Barack Obama’s determination to change the electoral map have significantly eroded John McCain’s base. On the other hand and despite Obama's shifted strategy, the fact is states that were battlegrounds in 2004 have remained tight, ensuring that McCain remains highly competitive.

Yesterday,5 polls from crucial swing states showed narrow races in the familiar swing states, while other developments underlined the relevance of the new Obama approach, including the unprecedented national scope of his campaign. As the Democrat started running ads in states like North Dakota and Indiana last month, we got out first sense that talk of expanding the map was not just a feint. An analysis of Obama’s campaign organization published by The Hill confirms that Democrats are serious about contesting these states.

Obama has already opened 4 campaign offices in Alaska and 6 in Montana. McCain has no offices in either of these red states. This is a repeat of the primary scenario: Obama’s organized in the caucus states Clinton ignored (Colorado, Alaska, Idaho), gaining a decisive edge in the delegate race. The stakes in the presidential race are different, of course, since electoral votes are not allocated proportionally. But given that no Democratic presidential candidates have opened campaign offices in Alaska or Montana in decades, the mere act of organizing troops in those states could have a dramatic effect on November results. In fact, two polls from red states by Research 2000 confirm that McCain has a lot to worry about:

• In Mississippi, McCain leads 51% to 42% - versus a 15% lead in May. Obama gets 19% of the white vote. He will need to improve that share a bit as well as boost black turnout. (The poll is made up of 37% of African-American respondents versus 35% in 2004.) One positive note for Obama: 15% of the poll’s black respondents are undecided versus 3% of white respondents. He has room to grow. (As a reminder: I have been skeptical of Obama’s chances in Mississippi.)

• In North Dakota, this is the second poll in a row (after Rasmussen’s) to find a toss-up, with McCain up 45% to 42% within the margin of error. This is a state Obama is actively competing in.

As if to confirm its intent to fundamentally alter the rules of the game, the Obama campaign finalized the first national advertisement buy by a presidential campaign since 1996. That year, Bob Dole aired a single national ad. This year, Obama has bought an expensive $5 million package of spots to be aired during the Olympics. In an age in which presidential election play out on a select number of battlegrounds, campaigns do not see the utility of buying time nationally on broadcast television for they are then paying to have their ad seen by voters in Rhode Island and Wyoming, Kansas and Illinois, New York and California - none of them states that Obama and McCain are preparing to contest.

Some will say that the Obama campaign is wasting its resources. Why spend anything on Montana when it is much more important to win Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico and thus get to 273 electoral votes -- whatever the popular vote margin? Three days ago, I explained that Obama’s gambit is very much a win-win move: Either McCain does not respond and opens no offices, runs no ads in MT, AK and NC and Obama’s chances in those states risk becoming even better than in Virginia and Colorado; or McCain responds and divests his limited resources away from states like Virginia and Colorado, leaving those more vulnerable.

It looks like there already are signs that the unlikely erosion of the GOP electoral base is forcing McCain to invest time and money -- a victory for Obama. McCain has been campaigning in… Arizona this month, staging campaign events and directing his staff to pay attention to the state. This is startling given that Arizona is a lean Republican state to start with and it is McCain’s home state. There have been hints for a while that Arizona could be closer than expected, but keep in mind that this isn’t even one of the states Obama has been investing in.

And keep in mind that the Obama campaign has substantially more resources, so that it can spend in Alaska and Montana while also heavily investing in the more traditional battleground states. In fact, The Hill’s article emphasizes just how big an organizational edge Obama is gaining in states in which McCain is supposedly concentrating in: By the end of the week, Obama will have 18 offices in Ohio and 20 in Virginia, compared to 8 and 6 for the McCain campaign! In Missouri, Obama is planning on sending 150 paid staffers and has 50 presently; McCain is described by The Hill as only having “a handful” and planning for 50.

These organizational discrepancies will have a very concrete effect come Election Day: they will impact voter registration, turnout and enthusiasm. These factors might not be determining in blow-out elections, but in close campaigns they can easily account for the 1% to 2% differential that could have gotten Al Gore and John Kerry in the White House. In 2004, the Kerry turnout operation in Ohio ended up being swamped by Bush’s, and that alone appears to have swung the election towards the Republican.

Read more at Daniel Nichanian's blog, Campaign Diaries.

Comments

[mvy]

The real issue shouldn't be how well Obama or McCain might do in any individual state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant and equal.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states.

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 20 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, MA, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

[YesWeCanada]

Obama's 50 state strategy fits nicely with a strong showing by the Democratic Party in general. Obama will have far more cash then McBobDole2.0 after the conventions. McCain will be competitive when combined with the bigger money of the GOP. However the GOP and McCain will be disorganized and fighting over the same $'s as more and more GOP seats become vulnerable.

[AdamND]

I live in North Dakota and Obama has two offices in Bismarck and Fargo. McCain has none that I can think of.

[Heaphy]

I believe that Obama now has ZERO paid staffers in California, where he leads by 24% in the latest Field Poll I saw. He is counting on his volunteer grassroots campaign here in California to carry the day for him, and to provide squadrons of volunteers to work in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado as well. I support the Fifty State Strategy enthusiastically. If Obama wins states like Montana and Alaska, then it will be as part of an historic landslide. Even if he loses those states, his campaigning hard in states like that sends a message to voters in EVERY rural and presumed red state. He cares about them and their concerns deeply and truly wants their support. This may result in additional Democratic seats in the Senate and House of Representatives, as well as reinvigorated Democratic Parties in state legislatures and city councils in formerly red states. Trust Barack Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe, Daschle and the whole Obama team to allocate campaign resources wisely.
- Jim Heaphy

[syrupcore]

Nice article, thanks. 20 offices in VA is hot.

[theone718]

The grassroots effect of this election will definitely play a big part in the soon to be landslide victory come november, some states will be close but will go in Obama's favor, hey just because the states are close doesn't mean all those electoral votes won't go Obama's way.

[generaldelivery]

With $4 gas, the economy in the toilet and record foreclosures, Obama should be mopping the floor with McCain. Instead, he's losing ground in those "must win" states.
You know the ones? They are the ones that Hillary won.

[Heaphy]

You cite no evidence that Obama is losing ground in any "must win" state. I don't know how you define "mopping the floor" but the latest Gallup tracking poll has Obama up by 9% over McCain. I consider that very encouraging. That doesn't mean that we don't have lots of work to do. Bill and Hillary should be campaigning their hearts out now for Democratic victory in November. I trust they soon will.
- Jim Heaphy

[sco8d]

Like NJ, NY and Cali? All states Hillary won. Oh, I forgot Pa. Check the polls then get back to me.

[CtJean]

Why are you still holding on? Let it go ,,, get behind O.

He is the nominee, and we need him to be the next president

O is mopping the floor - 2% of the voting population is a large number and that is how many people have cell phones - no landlines - they aren't usually polled.

[dsgeorge]

MSM will keep on telling us the race is close -- NO WAY.....they just want ratings.
This is a blow out election - BO will win handily.

[dsgeorge]

no matter how much MSM wants to tell us everyday that this election is close I believe that the polls are worthless due to the impact of cell phones vs land lines and I truly feel that BO will wipe McBush outta the water in November.

If I am wrong I will be moving to Canada!