WI: Obama Gains Traction With Clinton's Core Constituencies

With another big night that extended his winning streak to ten contests, Barack Obama made March 4th as irrelevant as he possibly could have.

How likely was such a scenario in the morning of February 6th? After Super Tuesday, the two candidates looked to be stuck in a stalemate with no end in sight. We knew that Obama was favored to win the rest of the February voting states, but such a sweep was supposed to be quickly erased by losses on March 4th, prolonging the primary into a drawn-out battle for each delegate.

Instead, Obama has done much more than hold his serve in the ten contests that have taken place since February 5th. He not only swept every single one of them, but he did so with astonishing ease, crushing her repeatedly and opening up a wide pledged delegate lead. Obama faced high expectations, and was not necessarily going to get much credit even from a victory, but he exceeded them in almost every single contest - a truly remarkable accomplishment.

Obama's victory in Wisconsin tonight is a dramatic exclamation point to this series. All pollsters (even ARG) had Obama leading in the state, but the conventional wisdom held that the race would remain competitive. After all, the Clinton campaign seemed determined to keep the race tight in a way they had not attempted in the last few voting states.

Wisconsin's demographics also appeared to favor neither Clinton nor Obama, making this contest particularly interesting. On the one hand, Wisconsin's electorate is particularly receptive to anti-war and populist arguments (it is not a coincidence that Howard Dean chose Wisconsin as his last stand in 2004); it also has a significant student population. On the other hand, the state has a significant working-class population, a group that Clinton had relied on until recently to carry her to victories.

Considering the momentum Obama has been riding in recent weeks, it was logical to expect that the Illinois Senator would win Wisconsin tonight. But the size of his victory - 58% to 41% -- was not expected. Clinton will have a very difficult time justifying this defeat considering that she made an effort to limit her losses here. Her strategy of more aggressive contrasts, in particular, does not seem to have been fruitful at all - and that will certainly influence the way the campaign approaches Texas and Ohio.

More importantly, the exit polls reveal that Obama might be breaking the stalemate the Democratic campaign had been in for some time now. Week after week, different constituencies were barely shifting their allegiance, guaranteeing tight elections and preventing any sense of resolution from emerging. But in Wisconsin, Obama has also struck at the heart of Hillary Clinton's base, improving his standing among her core constituencies.

He tied her among women, riding a 36% lead among men (and a massive gender gap) to victory). He prevailed comfortably among the least educated voters - even High School graduates - as well as across income groups. Clinton still polls fares better the lower a voter's family income, but she can no longer rely on voters making less than $50,000 to rescue her. Obama even came out with a healthy 7% lead among registered Democrats.

At the same time, Obama's advance among groups that were already supporting him keeps growing. 70% of voters between the age of 18 and 29 voted for him, as well as 91% of African-Americans (Obama has only recently started passing the 90% threshold among the black vote).

Obama looks to have finally found the key to appealing to Clinton's key constituencies, and the New York Senator will be in a world of trouble on March 4th if she does not find a way to motivate women and the working-class (as well as Latinos, whom she depends on heavily in Texas). The first signs of this trend had appeared in the Potomac Primary, but Wisconsin has made it that much more dramatic.

Boosted also by his huge victory in the Hawaii caucuses (74% to 26%, which should represent a 14 to 6 delegate split according to my calculations), Obama has built on his pledged delegate lead. Campaign Diaries' most recent count gives him 1189 to Clinton's 1041, with 9 outstanding. This alone makes March 4th as irrelevant as Obama could have dreamt it of being on the morning of February 6th: Clinton needs to win Ohio and Texas to stay alive, and she needs to do so by margins significant enough that she can cut in Obama's delegate lead. But even big Clinton victories - and it is unclear how she could rise high at this point, given her decline among the groups she is the most dependent on - will not worry the Obama camp too much. A 148 delegate lead cannot be lost that easily, and there still are plenty of states voting that Obama is confident will allow him to build on his delegate lead (Mississippi, Wyoming, for instance).

Hillary Clinton still has two major opportunities to stop Obama's march towards the nomination. There are two debates coming up, the first one this Thursday in Texas, and Clinton believes that she has an advantage in this format that could allow her to at best regain some ground and ride strong performances to big victories, and at worst to change the storyline and halt Obama's momentum. These two upcoming debates should certainly not be dismissed. After all, there have been plenty of debates that have profoundly altered the state of the race so far in this contest - October's Philadelphia debate that marked the beginning of Clinton's decline, January 5th New Hampshire debate after which the women vote rallied around the New York Senator, the South Carolina slugfest helped Obama get a massive victory on January 19th, and the California debate a few days before Super Tuesday allowed Hillary to stop the bleeding and hold her own on February 5th.

And Clinton did get one piece of good news tonight. In the Washington primary, Clinton only trails Obama by 3%, 49% to 46%. At this time, the contest has not yet been called. Unfortunately for Hillary, there are no delegates awarded out of this contest, so she once again can point to a beauty contest to reassuring news, but the hope she had out of this primary had nothing to do with delegates. Ten days ago, Obama trounced Clinton in the Washington caucuses - 68% to 31%. The Clinton campaign has been working to argue that caucuses are undemocratic processes in which only a small number of voters can participate, leaving many disenfranchised. Since Obama got many of his biggest wins (and thus a lot of his edge in delegate) from caucuses, the Clinton campaign has been hoping to discredit Obama's pledged delegate lead by questioning the validity of caucuses.

Now, the Clinton campaign will have evidence to back up its claim. A 37% humiliation in the February 9th caucus has become a too close to call contest, in what is right now a 34% swing. And turnout has been very strong - superior to the Republican primary turnout, and the GOP was awarding delegates tonight. It is hard to entirely dismiss the numbers from Washington, just as it is difficult to ignore Florida's. And look for Clinton to press the anti-caucus charge in the coming days.

Ultimately, this is not an argument for voters but for superdelegates. As it is looking increasingly likely that Clinton will not be able to catch up Obama's lead among pledged delegates, she needs to give some sort of cover to her backers, an argument they can use to justify their not rallying behind the party's frontrunner. And the results of the Washington primary are precisely that type of argument.

But that presupposes that Clinton remains relatively close in the pledged delegate count. And much before Ohio and Texas cast their votes, it is starting to look like the former frontrunner might not even achieve that. And no one would have predicted that on February 6th.

Comments

[sumofallfears]

Being from Ohio, I see the same thing happening here. There will be an Obama surge, and he will roll Hillary in my state. Not only is she going to lose the delegate battle in Texas, but she is going to lose by double digits in my state.

I think Hillary will lose by 20 points in Ohio.

http://www.politicalinaction.com

[GregQuindel]

What polls say in February is totally meaningless as to what Americans will do in November - MEANINGLESS. Remember where Hillary was 6 months ago? McCain? Hillary haters will not vote for Obama - period. Obama and his supporters are dreaming and I don"t want to wake up in November to a McCain Presidency. I really like Obama but when it comes down to an election against McCain, Hillary is the much stronger candidate. And while it might not be popular in the primaries (and the absurdly undemocratic caucuses) Hillary"s vote to authorize (NOT TO GO TO WAR) will be much easier to defend against McCain rather than what will appear to be a typical weak-on-defense liberal. Obama"s lack of experience is almost an advantage with wide-eyed liberals in the primaries but will devastate him (and our country) in November. I wish these things weren"t true. I just hope Democrats wake up before it"s too late.

[TrustMeImASalesman]

"It ain't over till it's over."
"This is like deja vu all over again."

"Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."

"You can observe a lot by just watching."

"When you get to a fork in the road, take it."

The above quotes are from the great New York Yankee catcher Yogi Berra. So with his wisdom, let's see if Hillary's future is bleak.
1. It ain't over... Don't count Hillary out yet. She be in this through the 15th round of this bout.
2. "It's like DejaVu all over...." Kerry will be in there "I was a Vietnam Veteran and I..." plus other vets trying to destroy the military industrial complex. He'll vow that Obama will pull out of Iraq and ....yada,yada..etc..
3. "Nobody goes there anymore it's too crowded" reveals that the Super Delagates are and will determine the outcome of the convention.
4. "You can observe alot just by watching" will prove to be Obama's achilles heel. Congressman Kirk Moriston Dem Tx. Was humiliated by Chris Mathews on MSNBC. Watch Hillary's advisors jump on this.
5. "When you get to the fork in the road, take it". And Hillary will change course. She's coming out swinging facts, achievement, legislative record, etc.. You'll see the gloves come off!

And this is why Dick Nixon and John McCain are laughing up a storm. They can't wait to get into it!

[AvasTiaJeanne]

I mostly agree with this article, but I have a comment about the Dem primary in the state of Washington. I live in Washington state, and I can tell you that a lot of people did not vote in the Dem primary because it was known that it was a "beauty" contest and that no delegates would be awarded out of this. So I think to show our primary as an area where the difference in the percentage between Obama and Clinton was small is not really presenting a true picture.
However, those of us who could made a big effort to go to the caucuses. I am a working person, and not "wealthy" as Bill Clinton seemed to imply in his comments regarding caucuses. I considered that an insult to those of us who have states with caucuses. True, the count is not as high, but those of us who could went to our precinct and voted. And the turnout was higher than ever before.

[TrustMeImASalesman]

Right now I believe the Democratic Party is in a very self-destruct mode! Reaching for change without knowing what substance, direction, and goals will destroy their chances for victory.

Barrak Obama, preaching these noble ideas of
"Change" can't back up any goals with legislative efforts. The National TV humilations of his supporter Congressman Kirk Watson(Dem. Texas) on MSNBC by Chris Mathews show explicitally the danger the party is in.

Watch now as Hillary and Bill go for the juglar vein on this issue. It's gonna be "Katie Bar the Door" brougha! I know the Republicans will not hesitate to crush Obama on these issues.

I believe Bill Clinton will come outa the closet with all the dirty tricks that he's mastered over the years. Just watch! Barrak, in my opinion, has never been and "Political Bar room brawl" and is about to get his butt whipped. This will bring about the real ugly side of the DNC and the Republicans are just laughing and waiting!

[bestyf]

This is probebly true but it only shows what so many have been saying about them. That they only care about winning and themselves. When they pull the dirty tricks, they may just crush all those excited young people that could have been the DNCs future. Instead it will drive them and others away, distroying the Dems chance at not only the presidency now, but long into the future. If Democrats allow this to happen, they deserve it.

[MajMike]

I wonder when/if she will start getting calls to drop out from the DNC et al, ala Romney? I don't see it happening until after March 4, she has until then for her machine to slime Obama and hope for a miracle (and poach delegates ;).

[winoohno]

Excellent article first and foremost.

It is unnerving to me how desperately hillary wants to be President. I bet she is preparing to dig in and claim delegates from MI & FL; contest all delegates apportioned through the Caucus process; spend recklessly on attack ads through her campaign, 527's and websites; and it wouldn't surprise me to see a court case along the way.

If we are to reverse the reckless course of the last 8 years, then we desperately need someone like Obama. Listen to the way hillary always speaks about herself ("I") and the way Obama speaks about bringing people together ("we"). Do WE want another autocratic executive or a President of the people?

[user168]

Has Hillary ever heard of "only truth wins at the end"? She spends her whole life trying to win with "Me-Hillary" by skipping the truth. How smart can that be? Why can't she figure out that wisdom comes from sincerity to truth?

[MAGLATINA]

OBAMA HAS BEEN LIFTED BY THE REPUBS THAT HAVE VOTED IN OPEN CAUSUSES AND PRIMARIES. THEY WILL NOT VOTE FOR HIM IN NOV; THUS MAKING THE WINNING OF MACCAIN EASY.

[dkmedl]

Maglatina,
I agree with you. The sheer number voting in the Democratic column was very telling when compared with the number of Republican tallies. They voted for Obama, of course, because they want to run against him in November. Of course, they will not vote for him then...Karl Rove has struck again!

[Noel]

I totally agree with onlyThis that, if Clinton wins because superdelegates put her over the top, the Democrats' system is f-ed up. I still believe that HRC would make a better president than John McCain and that it's important to have a Democrat make the inevitable Supreme Court nominations that will be coming along. You won't owe the Democrats anything, but maybe you can see that it will help the country to vote for the Democratic candidate.

[GregQuindel]

Caucuses are undemocratic. You have to be there at a specific time and for many at a great distance. Florida screwed up but the voters clearly choose Hillary. Why don't these things matter? As far as the super delegates go, wait until things are more settled. The choice for them may be obvious. Why is everybody talking about them doing something untold when it hasn't happened? The whole system is f-ed up, not just the possibility of the superdelgates voting for a candidate you didn't chose.

[onlyThis]

If Sen Clinton wins on the superdelegate count when Sen Obama is clearly ahead in the popular vote and the popular delegate count I will not vote in November. I have nothing against Sen Clinton and would not mind her being president but if the Democrat's system is so f-ed up then I don't want to be part of it.

[dkmedl]

I hope that the Superdelegates can see that Obama is winning so much because of the Republican plot to support his candidacy over Hillary Clinton's. He will be much easier for them to beat in the general election. Come November, you will see how little Republican support Obama has. Even Oprah's money will not be able to help him when the Republican attack machine cranks up.

[twinkerbell]

The Republicans actually want Senator Clinton. She is a polarizing figure who will bring out Republicans in droves to vote "against her". Not only that, in some of the few close races in the US House and the US Senate, she may take Democratic candidates down with her. And even if she wins, she will need 60 Democratic votes in the Senate to cut off Republican filibuster. McCain will ge the independent vote; Clinton will not. McCain is a war hero; President Clinton was a draft-dodger. McCain looks like the old man he is; Obama looks young and vital, while Clinton looks like she's had a lot of plastic surgery.
Obama's supporters will resist the Republican attacks, and Senator Clinton's 35 years of experience gives the Repub attack machine much more ammunition.