Everyone knows about the dreaded Bradley Effect: the phenomenon that leaves white voters loath to tell pollsters they won't vote for a black candidate. There's been a lot of fretting about this recently -- fretting, I find, that correlates with age: the older you are, the more likely you are to believe the Bradley Effect will turn up in this election. Here are some reasons Democrats needn't be overly worried, in ascending order of importance:
1. The event that gave the BE its name -- the 1982 California gubernatorial election, when Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles, polled well and then lost resoundingly -- took place 26 years ago. Don't you think the world has changed a little bit since then, especially regarding tolerance? Consider a prejudice once thought to be even more intense than racial prejudice: If we've made even a quarter of the progress in racial matters that we have in issues regarding sexuality, that alone turns the Bradley Effect on its ear.
2. There are 60 million Americans of voting age who hadn't yet reached the age of eight in 1982. Don't you think their racial attitudes are different from the people who have disappeared from the voting roles in that time -- namely, their dead grandparents?
3. Tennessee, 2006: The Democratic candidate for the Senate was a black man, Harold Ford. Tennessee hadn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1990. George Bush carried the state in 2004 by a 14 point margin. Republicans ran an ad, right before Election Day, suggesting that Ford had a taste for white women. In this very red state, with a black population of only 17%, Ford lost by just 3 percentage points. More to the point, he did better in the election than in the pre-election polling.
4. One recent, ill-conceived analysis suggests that 6% of people polled will not admit that they will not vote for a black man. Ask yourself: even if this were accurate, how many of them would be likely to vote for a liberal Democrat anyway? How many of them live in states that McCain is going to carry no matter what, like Texas or Mississippi? How many live in states that Obama is going to carry no matter what, like New York or California?
5. Finally, and most importantly, isn't there another shoe to drop on this issue -- namely, the number of people who will vote for Obama because he's black? I'm not talking about white voters who think it's time for a black president, or who want to feel good about their own racial attitudes -- those are Democratic voters in any case. I'm talking about the increased turnout among black voters. In recent elections, 51% of registered blacks voters showed up at the polls. Do you think that number will be up 10%? 20%? More? So do I. And that's just registered black voters. Registration of new black voters in states like Virginia and North Carolina has been one of the Obama organization's most notable accomplishments.
As a result, I'm looking for the debut of the Obama Effect -- a level of increased participation among black voters that may change the electoral map for years to come.
I am a volunteer co-ordinator for Obama in a very ultra-conservative area. Many times I have been approached by Republicans who whisper to me that they will vote for Obama but do not want their neighbors to know. I call them the "Whisper People". They are the ones who will say to pollsters that they are Repubs and for McCain yet they are the ones who will vote for Obama
I find each of the points have some merit but like 4 and 5 as the strongest.
She hasn't spoken to me since Palin started giving interviews, though.
The only way for your voice to be heard is to vote 3rd party.
Maybe it was the alligator affect, you know...where the beasts are set loose to roam about, chewing up the ballots cast for someone that those in control do not want to see win, as scandalous as that sounds, it seems that it has indeed happened, in all kinds of disenfranchising kinds of ways, of course.
It's like that curious "osama" print out on the absentee ballots coming from upstate NY that were proclaimed as being just a mistake. It would seem that more of an explanation is necessary, particularly since today, the McCain campaign is instructing their voters to make depraved comparisons between Sen. Obama and the man seen as the arch enemy of the United States - Osama. Yes, Osama, the guy whose name was placed on NY States absentee ballots in one upstate county.
It would seem inconceivable that the editing process involved in printing something as serious as absentee ballots for the office of the presidency yet, no one noticed that incendiary reference.
Usually, there are at least 2 people involved in editing and review, with final approval given before printing is executed.
Perhaps the County Executive can explain what went so terribly wrong in the process, because it surely seems very curious that this occurred without anyone noticing it.
Perhaps we are calling these "affects" by the wrong name, because perhaps they involve more than what meets the eye?
This is the 3rd election that I have been able to vote in. I have voted everytime.
I was born and raised in California.
I have several professional degrees and an excellent career.
Guess what? I HAVE EXPERIENCED RAC ISM. It has NOT been wiped clean in 26 years! My goodness, it sickens me how the cau cas ian liberal demographic has become the biggest apologists for rac ism. Instead of fighting to eliminate it, you just ignore that it exists.
Talk about privilege.
"Stirring the pot," is exactly how we reach equality. The fact that Obama is running has itself stirred the pot, and forced racial apologists to acknowledge a reality that the rest of us have known for the last 200 years. Now, when confronted with the evidence of these racialized ideas, people just want to ignore it. How is that education, in any way shape or form? How does that stop people from secretly changing their votes when they are in privacy?
And please, don't use the term "holocaust" when referring to animals... or compare animals to the experience of people of color ... or claim that those practicing Islam are the only ones who hate America these days. Unfortunately, we've lost our moral authority to most of the world.
I'm a young Black woman who was a mere 1 years old during the Bradley election. I was born and raised in California. I have several professional degrees and an excellent career. Guess what?I HAVE EXPERIENCED RACISM. It has not been wiped clean in a mere 26 years and the Bradley effect is quite the reality.
My goodness, it sickens me how the "liberal" population has become the biggest racism-apologists ever. No one wants to admit the extent to which race and racist attitudes drive American society.
Talk about privilege.
The Le Pen effect is different. In France, in each election, pollsters don't know how to estimate the support of the extreme right. Many voters are embarrassed to admit they're going to vote for Le Pen, and the polls are always misleading (the difficulty resides in estimating by how much). This is because people instinctively want to please the pollsters, who are known to be urban, well-educated and likely to disapprove of candidates like Le Pen (or Palin).
So people's please-the-pollster tendency still may lead to an inflation of Obama's numbers, even in the absence of a Bradley effect.
I hope.
That was then. This is now. It is the Democrats that have the momentum and are energized. Obama is a generational candidate. His campaign is like nothing any of us have ever seen. There are no comparisons. Bradley was no Obama. Sorry Tom. I believe racial attitudes have changed enormously. The current group of younger voters do not see race the same way. The tend to be more color blind. Also polling has gotten so much more refined and accurate. If there was a Bradley Effect it would have shown its ugly head by now and Obama would be watching from the sidelines.
After this election we will finally be able to put the Bradley Effect behind us. Racism will always be with us. The trick is too make it less and less relevant. Barack Obama will be a great stride toward putting racism farther in the rear view mirror.
This is a different time. The polls are more anonymous and sophisticated. Racism is still alive and not well but it is diminished especially among younger voters. My daughter is 18 and her and friends are on fire to vote. Far more motivated then my generation. I really believe the Bradley Effect is a relic of another time.
I do not believe Barack would have made it this far if it were a factor. As for dealing with rabid conservatives......you might want to try pepper spray.
Keep the faith Deni. This is our time.....this is Barack's time.
And btw, don't count Mississippi out so fast! Mississippi, like many other states, is going to be closer than you think!
I, my spouse, and my kids are all white, but we live in quite a racially diverse suburb of Chicago. We have whites, as well as many blacks, hispanics, and Asians around us. We like bringing our kids up here to show them that many good people come in all colors and from all backgrounds. We are also strong supporters of Obama, and Illinois is considered "safe" for capturing the electoral votes for him.
I have thought about getting an Obama campaign sign for the front of my house too. If it were just me and my spouse only, I'd definitely get it. However, since I have my children to think of first I won't be displaying that in front of our house. Again, we live in quite a diverse area with probably strong Obama support. However, especially since reading about these fruitcake hate-mongers of McCain's, I will not even risk the possibility of harm coming to my children because of them.
You could be right that there are more supporters of him than are willing to talk about it out loud. I'm hoping in the privacy of the voting booth though they will be willing to voice their opinion.
Hope, not fear. GObama '08!
If you have enough love for your children and grandchildren and their future; if there's enough love for the country once viewed by people around the globe as the greatest in the world; if there's enough love for the valiant young men and women who literally put their lives on the line every day to preserve the freedoms of this country, then hope has more than a fighting chance.
And hope, plus faith, plus action is an unbeatable combination.
Young Black children were killed just so that others could go to integrated schools, and live in the "diverse" neighborhoods that everyone so proudly claims as their own.
Now, we can't even post a sign in our yards to support a Black presidential candidate?
What happened to all those so-called "conversations about race," that were supposed to be the positive outcome of the racism to which we have been exposed in this election?