Bradley Who? Here Comes the Obama Effect

Everyone knows about the dreaded Bradley Effect: the phenomenon that leaves white voters loath to tell pollsters they won't vote for a black candidate. There's been a lot of fretting about this recently -- fretting, I find, that correlates with age: the older you are, the more likely you are to believe the Bradley Effect will turn up in this election. Here are some reasons Democrats needn't be overly worried, in ascending order of importance:

1. The event that gave the BE its name -- the 1982 California gubernatorial election, when Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles, polled well and then lost resoundingly -- took place 26 years ago. Don't you think the world has changed a little bit since then, especially regarding tolerance? Consider a prejudice once thought to be even more intense than racial prejudice: If we've made even a quarter of the progress in racial matters that we have in issues regarding sexuality, that alone turns the Bradley Effect on its ear.

2. There are 60 million Americans of voting age who hadn't yet reached the age of eight in 1982. Don't you think their racial attitudes are different from the people who have disappeared from the voting roles in that time -- namely, their dead grandparents?

3. Tennessee, 2006: The Democratic candidate for the Senate was a black man, Harold Ford. Tennessee hadn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1990. George Bush carried the state in 2004 by a 14 point margin. Republicans ran an ad, right before Election Day, suggesting that Ford had a taste for white women. In this very red state, with a black population of only 17%, Ford lost by just 3 percentage points. More to the point, he did better in the election than in the pre-election polling.

4. One recent, ill-conceived analysis suggests that 6% of people polled will not admit that they will not vote for a black man. Ask yourself: even if this were accurate, how many of them would be likely to vote for a liberal Democrat anyway? How many of them live in states that McCain is going to carry no matter what, like Texas or Mississippi? How many live in states that Obama is going to carry no matter what, like New York or California?

5. Finally, and most importantly, isn't there another shoe to drop on this issue -- namely, the number of people who will vote for Obama because he's black? I'm not talking about white voters who think it's time for a black president, or who want to feel good about their own racial attitudes -- those are Democratic voters in any case. I'm talking about the increased turnout among black voters. In recent elections, 51% of registered blacks voters showed up at the polls. Do you think that number will be up 10%? 20%? More? So do I. And that's just registered black voters. Registration of new black voters in states like Virginia and North Carolina has been one of the Obama organization's most notable accomplishments.

As a result, I'm looking for the debut of the Obama Effect -- a level of increased participation among black voters that may change the electoral map for years to come.

Comments

[brooklyncitizen]

There are two factors at play: Race and the Stupid Factor. Some people will never vote for a black man and others have been so disenfranchized they have voted against their own best interests for years and are simply too cynical to see their way out. Similar to the stock market they are ruled by fear and the fear keeps them stuck.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/10/13/081013fa_fact_packer

However, I still have faith in people to really come through and vote to stop our collective destruction.

[Chicago48]

While O will most definitely bring a fresh new team to the White House and intellectual advisers, he wont' have much to work with because WE. ARE. BROKE.
As for the O effect, the article makes good points. However, i still don't trust the people who answer polls. I was a pollster and the comp I worked for always talked to older white seniors for their opinions because they could never catch the younger ones at home. The mother w/ kids was too busy to talk, the single person was out in the streets and not near the phone. Plus -- cell phones are prominent. More cell phones than land lines.

[KC333]

What can I say about the youth vote...it is unreliable. I have been able to vote for 11 years now and this is the first time I have ever voted. I have already voted, but I am still concerned about the youth vote. I also know that there are people that say they will vote for McCain to their friends, but will change their mind in the booth. It is very important to get out and vote. The young vote will hopefully make the Bradley effect disappear. Also, minorities also do not vote in high numbers. They too must get out and vote. Obama will not win if people decide to sit at home. Do not trust the poll numbers. Obama has worked hard and will work hard for us, and we need to show him our support in the booths on the 4th of Nov!!!!

[gorideabike]

Another Obama effect: More Bush/Cheny bumper stickers than McCain bumper stickers. No Obama yard signs either in racialy hostile regions, because people do not want to be targeted. And a serious lack of McCain yard signs too in solid Republican areas like say, Omaha.

[gorideabike]

The Obama effect: Many community organizations all over the country means Obama has very long coat tails and a bunch of Democratic candidates for lower offices will be swept in with him.
The McCain effect: Quarterly reports to Americans showing what their retirement accounts lost up to 9/30/08 are being opened right now. Economy craters while McCain runs Klan rallies.
The Palin effect: Executive experience as the Alaska Governor is a series of shockingly amateurish bungles. Knowing she will be booed by Philidelphia hockey fans known to throw objects during games, she says she will take her daughter with her so they won't boo so loudly. And does. Reveals herself to have ice rink refrigerant in her veins.

[Grrr]

Another small note about the Harold Ford race. He lost by the smallest percentage in TN state history. In this race, though polls are showing a large ( but shrinking) lead for McCain here in TN I'm beginning to wonder if we may be seeing a reverse "racial leakage" factor. That some whites who fully intend to vote for Obama are embarrassed and fearful of telling neighbors, coworkers and even pollsters. I'm seeing far larger numbers of signs and bumper stickers for Obama than I ever expected to see in this red state and more people than usual are mum about their choices. When I read yesterday that West "by God" Virginia had one poll with Obama up 8, I really began to wonder if Tn polls would also begin to show similar uncertainty for McCain.

[daddyG56]

I think there's another wild card at work here....the dreaded "youth vote". I think young people are going to vote. I mean really turn out and vote this time. The contrasts between the candidates is so striking that it may well compell many to turn out. If they do so, they will overwhelmingly vote O.

[Mugzi]

Youth were suppose to vote in 2004 and maybe they did...the reason I watch polls is that the further Obama can distance himself from McShrub, the less of a chance of rigged machines. It would be very noticeable to rig machines when Obama is 15 or 20 points ahead of McShrub. When it is close they can rig machines and it would be hard to claim machine tampering. Please we need to vote on paper and pen with hand counting by non partisans counters....NO MORE MACHINES!!!!!

[sufi66]

Robert Kennedy predicted in 1968 that in 40 years we would have a Black president.

Kennedy effect?

[Krikkit]

You left out the most important factor, namely that the economy trumps race. Here's a personal anecdotal story to illistrate the point. I live in an Appalachian state with two openly bigotted brothers. Both of them have told me they will vote for Obama because the alternative is unthinkable. They will not vote for McCain under ANY circumstances.

You have to understand, for these two, to admit that they will vote for Obama is about as shameful (to their minds) as those hush-hush Bradley-era voters to admit they would not vote for a black candidate. But they are admitting it. Openly. They WILL vote for the black candidate. Their biggest surprise is that they are not taking a ribbing from their friends over their choices.

[truthyguy]

It would be really refreshing if The People would vote based solely on which candidate is most qualified.

[Bootoomee]

Sorry truthyguy, but qualification is a silly yardstick. Constitutionally, over a hundred million Americans are qualified. The question is who has the best leadership qualities neede to lead nation.

So far, Barack Obama leads in all areas.

And that is why he is going to be the next president of the united states!

[BigHeadTodd]

Fear within a non-black community and wanting to go along with the pack will make some PUBLICLY say or tell pollsters they are "undecided" or will not vote for Obama. But, cmon, at this point are there REALLY many undecided voters left?

The differences are, well, black and white. McCain represents politics of the late 20th century: dogmatic on moral issues and a fiscal policy that only serves the very rich and destroys the middle class. Obama represents 21st century America with pragmatic views of the social issues, belief in SCIENCE to help us with the environment, and the forethought to know that if you don't have a strong middle class workforce, programs for the very poor and perks for the wealthy will wither and die in a sick economy....like now.

Two-term REACTIONARY party presidents from Nixon to Reagan (three-term with him if you include G.H.W. Bush) to G.W. Bush have all taken this country down the wrong path.

We REAL AMERICANS are tired of waging "wars" against shadow movements (not even countries!) to secure oil fields for more gross profits for political cronies. We are tired of having corporate PIGS tell us "times are tough" and closing down offices and laying off people, only to have them ship OUR jobs to someone overseas. We are tired of having the "trickle down from the rich effect" only be greedy creeps peeing on us below.

The time is NOW for a change in direction!

[kozy]

I believe "BigHeadTodd" has it exactly correct. There is a REVERSE Bradley effect out here in many areas. These are people that say they WON'T vote for Obama that actually will. This is likely the cause of the Harold Ford near win in Tennessee. These reverse Bradley people are suburbanites that are White Flighters -- moving from places where blacks are in the neighborhood, to places that are white -- and racial skeptics (as opposed to outright racists). They would feel uncomfortable telling someone they would vote FOR a black man and will tell a pollster they are "undecided". Yet, in the privacy of a voting booth, they will vote for Obama. The anti-Bush, anti-Republican sentiment is huge -- and it seems to me that can only translate to a big advantage for Obama and Democrats in general.

[Grrr]

Just made a similar post before reading these. You are dead -on. I'm in TN and have been getting the same vibe.

[seniorcousin]

I'm 55 and I've been worried about that all along, but I've noticed the people in my family who I know wouldn't vote for a black are saying it's because he's a Muslim, liberal, Arab, etc.

[KathyCln]

I'm from the 5th congressional district in Minnesota and we sent Keith Ellison to the congress as the first Muslim. Seems that he is acting "normally" and will surely be reelected. I ask these people who think Obama is a Muslim...so what!!?!! Also to John McCain: isn't it ok to be an Arab and be in the congress??

[LAB11]

But still they are saying out right they will not vote for him. This in not the BE. If they were saying they WILL and then not voting for Obama that would be the BE.

[indc]

I think there may be a reverse BE... there appear to be white voters who do not feel comfortable supporting Obama openly due to social pressures, but in the voting booth ...

the danger continues to be theft of this election..... as we clear see there are trillions of dollars at stake, and we know with certainty that the 2000 and 2004 elections thefts were planned and executed well enough to get away with it and put Bush in office.... before, during, and after the vote, Americans need to demand that this election be conducted with integrity and those who try to steal even one vote should go to jail for a long time, and those who try to steal our democracy by orchestrating voter theft should go to jail for life, and go to a hard time jail. The number of deaths and physical and mental injuries these thefts have lead to is massive, the economic theft and damage to Americans has become evident, and the opportunity cost to education, infrastructure, new energy industries and environment, and everything that deals with the future well being of the citizens of this country makes clear this was not a crime without severe damage to victims and the well fare of America... what is more treasonous than stealing democracy itself and denying American their freedom to choose their leadership.

[angrykeyboarder]

Like me, my Mom is an Obama supporter. I emailing this article to her. Based on what she's said she really needs to see this.

[Julie02]

Actually, I have a theory that I have gotten some nods of agreement on. There are people the are publicly for McCain because of their lonstanding Repub affiliation and their family/friend loyalties that will not speak out for Obama or admit that they are considering him. There are also those that may even go along with their racists friends with their tasteless jokes. But when they get in that voting booth, many of them are going to pull the lever for Obama. I think we will be surprised at the numbers on Nov. 4.