Bradley Who? Here Comes the Obama Effect
Everyone knows about the dreaded Bradley Effect: the phenomenon that leaves white voters loath to tell pollsters they won't vote for a black candidate. There's been a lot of fretting about this recently -- fretting, I find, that correlates with age: the older you are, the more likely you are to believe the Bradley Effect will turn up in this election. Here are some reasons Democrats needn't be overly worried, in ascending order of importance:
1. The event that gave the BE its name -- the 1982 California gubernatorial election, when Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles, polled well and then lost resoundingly -- took place 26 years ago. Don't you think the world has changed a little bit since then, especially regarding tolerance? Consider a prejudice once thought to be even more intense than racial prejudice: If we've made even a quarter of the progress in racial matters that we have in issues regarding sexuality, that alone turns the Bradley Effect on its ear.
2. There are 60 million Americans of voting age who hadn't yet reached the age of eight in 1982. Don't you think their racial attitudes are different from the people who have disappeared from the voting roles in that time -- namely, their dead grandparents?
3. Tennessee, 2006: The Democratic candidate for the Senate was a black man, Harold Ford. Tennessee hadn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1990. George Bush carried the state in 2004 by a 14 point margin. Republicans ran an ad, right before Election Day, suggesting that Ford had a taste for white women. In this very red state, with a black population of only 17%, Ford lost by just 3 percentage points. More to the point, he did better in the election than in the pre-election polling.
4. One recent, ill-conceived analysis suggests that 6% of people polled will not admit that they will not vote for a black man. Ask yourself: even if this were accurate, how many of them would be likely to vote for a liberal Democrat anyway? How many of them live in states that McCain is going to carry no matter what, like Texas or Mississippi? How many live in states that Obama is going to carry no matter what, like New York or California?
5. Finally, and most importantly, isn't there another shoe to drop on this issue -- namely, the number of people who will vote for Obama because he's black? I'm not talking about white voters who think it's time for a black president, or who want to feel good about their own racial attitudes -- those are Democratic voters in any case. I'm talking about the increased turnout among black voters. In recent elections, 51% of registered blacks voters showed up at the polls. Do you think that number will be up 10%? 20%? More? So do I. And that's just registered black voters. Registration of new black voters in states like Virginia and North Carolina has been one of the Obama organization's most notable accomplishments.
As a result, I'm looking for the debut of the Obama Effect -- a level of increased participation among black voters that may change the electoral map for years to come.
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What about those of us who couldn't care less about the colour or gender of a candidate but care deeply about their track record, resume,character and ideas?
I have listened, from the Primary season on, to each candidate's ideas, looked for myself at their qualifications, observed their interactions with their families and with their opponants and settled on Obama-
After 8 years of careful dismantling, I believe that our civil right can only benefit from having an honest to goodness Constitutional Scholar in the Oval Office.
With the Supreme Court having become ideologically unbalanced with the last several appointments, I'd like to see the next nominations made by someone who will not be looking for the most "conservative" choice.
I find Sen. Obama's resume impressive and love that he focused on community empowerment and voting rights throughout so much of his working life.
I like his demeanor- I like the way he and his wife interact, I like his manner with "the opposition", he's thoughtful and well spoken,I think he can get a point across in foriegn affairs without embarrassing me.
I think that my interests will be better represented by Sen. Obama and an Obama-appointed cabinet than by a continuation of the Bush legacy.
Race is not a factor.
Biden teaches a weekend Constitutional Law class in Delaware. I guarantee his discussions with Obama ill be far more compelling than Bush-Cheney or McCain-Palin.
Don't forget McCain is a legacy too.
Wouldn't you just love to be a fly on the wall? That would be my idea of a good time!
amen...my friend
But lets paint it all blue just the same :P,
Undecided no more
http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/10/a-hard-look-at-reality-and-what-you-should-do/#more-1773
Bradley Effect on the Obama Campaign (and much more)
now this is a smart well thought out piece. not just reactive opinion.
"Republicans ran an ad, right before Election Day, suggesting that Ford had a taste for white women. In this very red state, with a black population of only 17%, Ford lost by just 3 percentage points."
The B.E. might be less, but it's still out there. (Maybe the age thing is right--I'm in my 40s.) No one thought another Great Depression would ever happen again, and yet here we are, so I'm not buying the "it's been 26 years" argument. By how much the B.E. might be lessened, if it's there at all now, will be seen in this election. Just don't slack off, people.
Obama benefits from being long awaited, unlike any other. And he steps up, squeeky clean and eloquent and fills those shoes. His speeches carry the impetus of the change he embodies. Someone brought up Bobby Kennedy, and the comparison is good, from the angle of being green. Hillary, though tactless to bring out fears of a repeat of 1969, nevertheless brought up the fragility of being so close to espousing the American moral ideal that somewhere, someone may come to finish demoralizing the American people after events like 9/11 and now the worst economic times ever by doing something irrevocable. It is worrisome to see the punishment America has endured since the turn of the millenium. There would be nothing better than to restore faith in itself, by having a brilliant, pristine leader. I almost wish Obama had a slight dubious air, something in the closet that would tell me he could take care of himself under any circumstance, and he's forged enough webs of alliance so that he'd be untouchable. I do look at him though with a suspicion of Nation of Islam programming: the suit, the mannerism and as a white woman, it's less his brother or father, who don't hide their game, but his mother's upbringing that makes me question how attached he might be to white Middle America. I wish him well however, and I wish him a long life.
You hit the nail on the head. Those voters who would never in a million years vote for a Black man or 'another Hussein' are already firmly in the Republican camp. They don't even factor. They can keep them there too!
I expect the Reverse Bradley Effect. That's where white people won't tell pollsters or anyone that they are voting for Obama. Instead they will poll for McCain and vote for Obama in the voting booth. Most rational Americans are afraid of Sarah Palin and what she represents. Americans are not Nazis.
PLDChicago:
I feel as you do. In order to remain on the "republican party christmas card list", they have to keep their mouths closed. But this way, they can be "closet Obama voters". What a concept!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The "Obama Effect" is one more reason for bitterness and clinging to outmoded ways of thinking among many Americans. The anger, of course, comes from the single fact that we are NOT living in
W hite A nglo S axon P rotestant anymore. The culture has shifted without many people's awareness or assent, and these people are moving through the changes by re-creating their past so that they can maintain their past ways of being and thinking.
Today, kids don't care as much about having black and gay friends. Jimmy Carter's phrase "human rights" has almost become acceptable. People who were for the Iraq War became sickened by torture, the lies and the attack on our constitutional fundamentals. Nonviolent communication, negotiation and problem-solving are now being taught in some schools.
Reality is busting out all over. No wonder there is anger and rage and fear and hope.
Obama is like Oprah....he is not black to most people...he is just Obama.
The crazy repressed white people...from a different time and space just do not get that yet...
Nobody should underestimate the Bradley Effect, though, and feel like they don't have to vote. An NPR report ther other day spotlighted an interview with a lady in Virginia, IIRC, who, after just a few questions, confessed to planning not to vote Obama owing to outright prejudice.
I personally have no idea why anyone would want to be president now. There's no money in the Treasury, and unless some minor (and major) economic miracles happen, whoever wins is going to end up going down in history as another Hoover.
Recall that Clinton was seriously considering suing Poppy Bush when he saw the state of the country's coffers. The next president may have no tactical choice but to make an example out of W through civil, probably even criminal, charges, this just to throw a very angry public a proxy bone.
If the B.E. were really at play here, Ob ama would not be the nominee
The future is going to be much more positive and different despite these crazy repressed people.
One quibble. Well, two, considering I read something a lot like this on Talking Points Memo. But my quibble is with the notion that black voters are voting for Obama because he's black. Believe you me, if it was Condi Rice or Clarence Thomas or, okay, Colin Powell, for heavens sake, I would not push the touch screen for them. Blacks are voting for Obama because he's a MAN, who happens to be black, who is pushing the issues that most affect us and that we most care about. He's a MAN, who happens to be black, who fulfills the promise of King and Bobby Kennedy combined. Hell, yeah, I'm proud of him. I cried like a baby when he stepped on that stage at Ole Miss because, historically, that moment meant EVERYTHING to a black person who grew up in the South. But make no mistake. I'm not voting for him cuz he's black. I'm voting for him because he stands head and shoulders taller than anyone to run for that office ... gosh, since Bobby Kennedy.
It started out that way, but turned when Obama made the campaign against Hillary about race. When more than 90% of blacks vote for Obama over Hillary in the primaries, the only explanation is that blacks are voting on the basis of race. Unlike Kerry and Gore, Obama and Bill Clinton are likable and good speakers. But other than the ability to make a good speech, Obama has more in common with George Bush than anyone else. Both are congenial, likable guys, both have incredible amounts of money behind them, neither is exceptionally bright or experienced and will have the unelected political handlers who get them elected telling them what to do. Most importantly, both have a Congress from their own party and will not veto any spending bill to hit their desk.
Bill and Hillary Clinton made the nomination race about race. And Obama is exceptionally bright. You've just been dumbed down by the dummy we've had in office for eight years, who doesn't read, think, or wonder, except when he's looking between his legs for the missing weapons of mass destruction.
What on God's Earth are you talking about?
Neither is bright?
You're joking, right?
You do know that Bill Clinton got 92% of the AA vote, huh?
Nexialist - you should consider the facts before making vacuous claims. He was accepted to Harvard Law on the basis of his academic credentials and he was elected as President of Harvard Law Review,
Yes indeed! Middle-aged white woman in Texas here. I'm not voting for him because he's 'black' either. (Never have figured out - as I'm not originally from here - how come when it comes to his heritage the white doesn't count. The man is bi-racial, not 'black.') A smart, qualified leader. Just what we need.
If that's the case nearly all African Americans are bi-racial. When we were brought here in slaves ships and the women were raped. The product of that was bi-racial children. We have so many different skin colors ranging from light, bright and almost white. So we all have some white blood in us.
fair points, all. but i think the author's point was that these examples, whether real or not, represent statistically insignificant segments of the population and are likely to cancel each other out. the increased number of new black voters is significant because they are likely to vote democratic no matter the candidate. that's how i read it anyway.
Obama is where he is because of the white folks in white states...saw a man of character, a man who is the best last chance to be a better country......
blacks, whites, hispanics and others are voting for Obama because is the best candidate and people want a change from the old to the new - the old has not worked - we want to try something else - period -
Here here! He's the right candidate for a time such as this.
Remember in '82 Deukmajian was actually running against his immediate predecessor, Governor Moonbeam, Jerry Brown, who had for one irritating albatross the famous Bird Court around his neck, and by convection, Bradley's as well. The Supremes of that era were seen as very friendly with convicted murderers and such. (Three of them were eventually recalled.) Deukmejian ran as a balanced-budget law and order conservative, an antidote to Brown rather than Bradley.
Them as schedule scientific studies all know you have to take into consideration all possible forces and factors, and most iterations of the Bradley Effect consider only race.
If anything, there is a Reverse Bradley effect where voters don't tell pollsters they're voting for Obama, for fear of this information getting out to their neighbors and others. If you look at the 50 primary contests, Obama almost always OVERPERFORMED, particularly in the south. In fact, did he ever underperform?
This is what I feel will be the true "Obama effect"
The fact that Obama won the Democratic nomination shows he has substantial support among the masses. Secondly, the economic crisis will trump color. As PA Gov. Rendell eloquently put it, "a drowning man doesn't care what color the person is who throws him a life preserver…. nobody's going to care whether he's black, green, orange, purple, fuchsia or whatever."
Obama 08
Give a brother a shot
Listen, we don't have to "give a brother a hot," Syco. Nope. I don't care whether you're black, white, or whatever or anything in between, Barack Obama went out there and EARNED that shot, every step of the way. Along with his attitude, beliefs, and temperament, that is what will make him a great president.
Obama gets my vote because he's the better of the two candidates. Unlike spoiled child of privilege John McCain, Obama received an excellent education based on merit. Not only is he very intelligent and hard-working, BO also possesses the sort of temperament best suited to be a POTUS.
My vote has everything to do with a candidates' qualities. Race is irrelevant.
Obama '08
What I've discussed with friends is the Harold Washington effect. Harold Washington was the Mayor of Chicago in the mid-1980s. He ran against a woman, Jane Byrne, in the Dem primary and beat her. Then the Rep put forward some cat named Bernard Epton. You think this campaign is turning racial? You should have seen the plain white buttons that many normally good-natured white folk sported and the statements of how Chicago's famed elevated train system "the El" would become known as the Soul Train if he were elected. This statement was printed in one of the two major newspapers in the City (Chicago Sun-Times).
Well, Harold won as blacks rose up against the blatant attempts at racial intimidation, voter suppression, slander, rumors, lies, etc. My sister-in-law of now 14 years, whom I love dearly, has voted twice in her 46 years of life - for Harold Washington's first and second terms.
Just like my sis, there is a woman from turned 100 this week. She has registered to vote for the very first time. She is making, just like my sis, a concerted effort to elect a Black man to office. She is rekindling the Harold Washington effect - and she's not alone.
Whatever motivates good people to vote - let them vote. Our children are at stake here. ALL of our children regardless of skin color. The need healthcare and jobs and education and a house to live in.
The fate of the nation and the idea of democracy are at stake here.
The people who are least likely to be racist voters are those under 30, who are the least likely to vote. If the Obama campaign can get these people to vote, along with increased minority participation, they should win. The people who vote the most are seniors, and they might be more likely to pull the lever for McCain because they are too uncomfortable voting for a black candidate with a "foreign" name.
The real reverse Bradley effect is that person who is conservative and has always voted Republican, who would never admit to anyone that they would vote for a democrat-- let alone a black man, but are so sick about the state of the economy and all the failure of the last 8 years that in the privacy of the polling booth will vote their wallet and quietly pull the lever or mark the ballot for Obama. There are a lot of those people even here in North Idaho.
Yes, I thought that was a big point the author missed. Here in the south , it may well be surprising how many vote for Obama who would never admit to their friends they are going to do so.
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