Bradley Who? Here Comes the Obama Effect

Everyone knows about the dreaded Bradley Effect: the phenomenon that leaves white voters loath to tell pollsters they won't vote for a black candidate. There's been a lot of fretting about this recently -- fretting, I find, that correlates with age: the older you are, the more likely you are to believe the Bradley Effect will turn up in this election. Here are some reasons Democrats needn't be overly worried, in ascending order of importance:

1. The event that gave the BE its name -- the 1982 California gubernatorial election, when Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles, polled well and then lost resoundingly -- took place 26 years ago. Don't you think the world has changed a little bit since then, especially regarding tolerance? Consider a prejudice once thought to be even more intense than racial prejudice: If we've made even a quarter of the progress in racial matters that we have in issues regarding sexuality, that alone turns the Bradley Effect on its ear.

2. There are 60 million Americans of voting age who hadn't yet reached the age of eight in 1982. Don't you think their racial attitudes are different from the people who have disappeared from the voting roles in that time -- namely, their dead grandparents?

3. Tennessee, 2006: The Democratic candidate for the Senate was a black man, Harold Ford. Tennessee hadn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1990. George Bush carried the state in 2004 by a 14 point margin. Republicans ran an ad, right before Election Day, suggesting that Ford had a taste for white women. In this very red state, with a black population of only 17%, Ford lost by just 3 percentage points. More to the point, he did better in the election than in the pre-election polling.

4. One recent, ill-conceived analysis suggests that 6% of people polled will not admit that they will not vote for a black man. Ask yourself: even if this were accurate, how many of them would be likely to vote for a liberal Democrat anyway? How many of them live in states that McCain is going to carry no matter what, like Texas or Mississippi? How many live in states that Obama is going to carry no matter what, like New York or California?

5. Finally, and most importantly, isn't there another shoe to drop on this issue -- namely, the number of people who will vote for Obama because he's black? I'm not talking about white voters who think it's time for a black president, or who want to feel good about their own racial attitudes -- those are Democratic voters in any case. I'm talking about the increased turnout among black voters. In recent elections, 51% of registered blacks voters showed up at the polls. Do you think that number will be up 10%? 20%? More? So do I. And that's just registered black voters. Registration of new black voters in states like Virginia and North Carolina has been one of the Obama organization's most notable accomplishments.

As a result, I'm looking for the debut of the Obama Effect -- a level of increased participation among black voters that may change the electoral map for years to come.

Comments

[JJeff88]

Depending on the state and its culture, there could be a countering "Reverse Bradley effect - i.e. that, in states with more traditional racial bias - Obama supporters may be reluctant to admit this to interviewers lest word get out and they become victims of hate-tactics.

You might get a Bradley Effect in politically correct California.

But you might see a Reverse Bradley Effect in places like North Carolina, Virginia or Western Pennsylvania.

Or maybe Okrent is right, and the whole deal is overblown.

[jadeba]

Gov. Easely (D-VA) said this last night. He felt there would be many who vote for O but won't openly say the did.

[olephart]

It's not just a prejudice against Black politicians many of these people have a prejudice against Liberals and Democrats. Most are not affluent so they are, from an economic standpoint, voting against their own interests. If you could imagine a trap door over a pit of alligators with a clasp connected to a lever marked pull to vote Republican, these people would stand on the trap door, pull the lever and as they were falling into the pit of alligators would say, "Damn Democrats!"

[LisaLisa1234]

LOL!!!

[Swedishgal]

You are absolutely correct about that. This country has got some of the dumbest mf-er's on the planet. I don't know of anybody that votes against their own economic interest except those in this country. If they want to give their hard earned money to rich people then that's their business but when their stupidity effects me then that's my business and that's why Obama absolutely has to win. If those s.o.b.'s cheat and that old guy wins I'm protesting and fighting back hard. They won't get away with it this time.

[Sparhawk]

So you would rather give your money to the Government­...you know the same group of crooks who stole $700M just jast week?

Please wake up

[Nexialist]

Conservatives believe in personal responsibility. They are not as angry at the economy as the corruption in Congress. Elected officials in both parties have eroded our economic and personal freedoms. That's what conservatives want, not success or failure, but the freedom to succeed or fail.

[olephart]

"Conservatives believe in personal responsibi­lity."

Then why don't they ever take any? It's Clinton's fault, it's the minorities and their sub prime loans, la ta da ta da. Why don't they admit that like with Reagan's deregulation that led to the Savings and Loan debacle that the present economic disaster is a direct result of looking the other way while Wall Street stole everything? In 2004 the SEC allowed the investment banks to increase their leverage from 10 to 1 up to 33 to 1. The SEC just announced that its voluntary regulation of banks has been a failure and they are discontinuing it. The Conservative philosophy that the Government is the problem and that markets will regulate themselves is false. Admit it, take responsibility. Regulations are there for a reason, it's why we paint stripes on the roads!

[Ceartas]

I know it is not quantifiable, but I hear tell of a "Reverse Bradley Effect".

This scenario suggests that there are white male voters out there who will admit to no one, not their wives, not their friends, not a pollster and certainly not their business acquaintances that they intend to vote for a black man.

This fellow, upon entering the booth, and faced with a choice, one of hope and change (however vague), the other for endless war, a program for taxpayers to further subsidize the banks, an aging candidate who has selected a running mate only marginally qualified for the office she presently holds, and woefully unprepared for the office she seeks, much less the Presidency­....THAT guy will punch the chad or pull the lever for the only rational choice: Senator Obama.

[FanofPaine]

true. I live in a very republican stronghold in VA. and I have a co-worker whose husband (they are mostly republicans) voted for Obama in the primaries here, but was deathly ashamed and afraid to tell anyone. I only know because his wife knew I was an uber-Obama supporter and she felt it would be "safe" to tell me.

[liviapeacock]

I love it! Obama as a guilty pleasure..­.now that's what I call, progress.

Obama biden 2008!

[jzucker]

Yes but...The important states are going to be OHIO, PA and FL, all of which have way too many racially biased voters. Witness the NBC "undecided" polls where 60% thought Obama won the last debate but only 40% would vote for him. There are way too many people in OHIO who whisper "I just can't vote for him".

It's sad and I'll leave this state if they vote mccain and he wins the election.

There was a rally in downtown cleveland where some members of local sports teams such as much heralded Brady Quinn came out in support for McCain. Quinn actually introduced McCain in a recent rally. This is a big, blue-collar, sports-team-loving, pay-for-th­e-stadium-­with-publi­c-money state.

Brady Quinn coming out for McCain is huge and symptomatic of the issues here. On a related note, I will boycott the Cleveland Browns and any advertisers, products etc., should he become the quarterback there...

[LeftRight]

Actually, if you look at the latest numbers, Obama is basically at 264 electoral votes right now. Out of the remaining 8 states, Obama only needs to win one of them, except Nevada, which doesn't have enough EVs to put him over the top. So if Obama wins any ONE of these states, he wins: CO, MO, IN, OH, VA, FL, or NC he wins the election!

In McCain's case, he needs to win ALL of them. The only other thing that could work for him would be that he won all those states, and Obama got NV, then there would be a tie.

[freedomfighter1]

'There are 60 million Americans of voting age who hadn't yet reached the age of eight in 1982. Don't you think their racial attitudes are different from the people who have disappeared from the voting roles in that time -- namely, their dead grandparents'


This is an excellent point the writer made. Pop culture has all but completely blurred the lines or race(and increasingly, sex) so that for alot of people its either a non-issue or an issue that they can overcome. I feel great about that. I remeber being 13 in 1987. I was introduced to several different cultures through movies and music. I loved every minute of it.

[LeftLeanWing]

I think there is another component here.... White voters who would never acknowledge that they voted for THE BLACK MAN around there peers.

I noticed it during the last debate in one of those televised Focus Groups. During the debate they all rated Obama higher than McCain consistently. Yet when asked who swayed them more and to raise their hands ( while televised ) they results were the opposite of what they previously conveyed.

I think a significant number of white people will say they are FOR McCAIN but end up voting FOR OBAMA.

This is the new BE; the Barack Effect...

[freedomfighter1]

'This is the new BE; the Barack Effect...'

That was a phenomenal comment LLW.

[media717]

I have long been saying that the Obama Effect is taking hold, but in a different way. I believe that some people are saying they'll vote for McCain but really want Obama. It could be because of where they live, the attitudes of their friends, family, spouse or maybe they're afraid they'll be ostracized at work or fired, that they are telling people they're for McCain. However, when they go into that voting booth and it's just them, their conscience and the ballot, they'll vote in their own best interests -- for Obama. I think the Obama campaign has to get the word out that it's OKAY to vote for their candidate. Some people just want permission to do it.

[davidinaustin]

I think you're right. I very gingerly brought up the election with my mom yesterday. She is in her 70s, grew up in Houston as a Southern Baptist, and has never dreamed of voting Democrat. I was stunned to hear her say she and her best friend since childhood have been very drawn to Obama and are petrified to tell their other friends. I have another friend who tells a very similar story, and I don't think it's unique. I'm not sure my mom will vote Obama, but the fact she has even considered it is an irrefutable indicator of how others in her demographi­c/generati­on may be leaning.

[Swedishgal]

Both of my parents, ages 66 and 70, will be voting for Obama. Even they say McCain is a grumpy old man and they don't like his attitude towards Obama.

[JFB]

Mr. Okrent and concerned HuffPost Readers,

Good news. A fascinating academic paper from August 2008 looks closely at the Bradley/Wilder effect and finds that it no longer exists. It is titled:

No More Wilder Effect, Never a Whitman Effect: When and Why Poles Mislead about Black and Female Candidates

It is by:

Daniel J. Hopkins, Post Doctoral Fellow, Department of Government, Harvard University

You can read it here:

http://people.iq.harvard.edu/~dhopkins/wilder13.pdf

[Nosquares]

There's yet another factor, I think, that will improve the vote for Obama. I believe there is a small but significant number of Republicans who, though they may be unwilling/unable to even utter the word "Democrat", are so fed up with their party and its representatives, will, in the safety of the voting booth, vote for Obama... perhaps a secret they'll take to the grave.

[JinChicago]

this also is something i believe to be true. i know a couple of people who have done nothing but rail against the gop while still being registered on that side, but when you bring up the election, have very little to say...let'­s hope we are right!

[readyfornewleadership]

I completely agree. I thought that was where we were going with this post. Financially savvy republicans (versus the cultural far right) see absolutely nothing in the Repub ticket that appeals to them. The current financial meltdown only reinforces that. I know republicans that are certainly not advertising the fact that they will not vote for John McCain. I think this is a very big number. I think McCain could have mitigated this by picking Romney but he picked a running mate that can only run a state that has more money than it knows what to do with.

[djwfutbol]

I'm confused. Bill Bradley looks pretty white to me. The Knicks still stink.

Just kidding. In the current environment, anyone so moronic as to think skin color is more important than working on solutions to this global disaster in the making, probably can't figure out which lever to pull in the voting booth anyway.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if JM didn't have a hint of racism in him and I'm sure SP has problems with blacks. When it comes to race relations, AK is as backwards a state as you'll find anywhere.

[contemporarymom]

I wouldn't go off spouting mere assumptions of others. What about those who use the excuse of race to justify those who don't feel obama is qualified? There have been many here at huffington who claim that those who really feel he is not qualified to be prez are hiding behind the fact that they don't want to vote for a black man.

My point is there is just way to much assumption making going on here.

[Academic]

I'd like to share your optimism Daniel Okrent but, alas, racism is a powerful component of the white American psyche. The only difference between the past and now is that whites are more skilled and adept, because of political correctness, in covering that racism up. And if you're honest with yourself you must know that there are millions of whites who still see the White House as being just that - the House for Whites Only.

Professor Dr. Stanley Collymore
London, England.

[Doofus]

Well, we are about to get over that.

[magicmary]

Oh, we so need a black president and an elegant brilliant black first lady! When they've finished putting a few dollars back into the pockets of the working/middle class and helped us find some stability again, I think racism will diminish. I pray.
Reminds me of my aunt who is horribly racist. She was handed her biracial new great grandson and then everyone walked out of the room. Deal with it gramma! Apparently from what I hear, her views are softening. I'm really excited for that little boy to grow up with a president who looks like him! I think there will be some great leaps in self esteem in many many corners of our culture and I am very hopeful because of that.
GoBama!!

[readyfornewleadership]

Give me a break. The only difference between the 1960s when blacks couldn't drink at a water fountain and 2008 when we have a black candidate for POTUS is whites covering up racism??

That is flat out stupid. How do you get nominated without heavy white support in a country that is only about 10% black.

I hope your academic area of expertise is elsewhere.

[Meggie]

I've thought from the beginning that this "Bradley effect" stuff was just preparing for the exit polls differing from the "actual vote". It was prep for stealing the election again with shady counting and electronic voting, along with caging lists and all the other illegal activities that Americans seem to think is OK in their elections. All most of us need is an excuse for why the Dem didn't win again and it would be accepted. It's disgusting, but we're so lazy and careless with this stuff that those in power feel comfortable doing it again and again.

[Swedishgal]

Al Jazeera is going to be in Hampton on Election Day. That's bad when we need poll watchers to make sure everyone can vote. The Repubs have turned us into a banana republic because of their voter sleaze.

[Opsimath44]

There will be a reverse Bradley effect this year.

Voters are telling pollsters that they will toe the party line.

But in the booth, they will vote their conscience and economic interest.

It's easy to make up a reason not to vote for Obama. It's not that he's black... it's for this, that, or the other.

But those reasons aren't holding up any longer, so in the booth, they'll do the right thing.

Obama by 15%, 300+ in the electoral college.

[BYoung976]

I send my thanks

I have been contemplating writing this for a while. I am an African-American male and I am supporting Senator Obama like I have supported all Democratic nominees that came before him. I want to thank all of the non-Africa­n-American­s (NAA) on this board for actually sticking to your belief and principles and for not letting race be your guide. For so long, I too have been worried about the Brady/Wilder effect, but coming to this board and hanging around my fellow co-worker I am encouraged that not only are we near the end of our chapter in our history but we're near the end of the book. Time to open another volume. I know that many many non-Africa­n-American will never vote for a qualified man/woman of color even if he or she represents their beliefs, values and ideas as such the case in Barack. I also know that some (NAA) will vote for Obama for him for the sake of dispelling their prejudices and I'm ok with that. But you all on this board as well as many across the country are the reason why American will once again be the beacon of light and hope. You are the reason why we as Americans will once again be looked upon as the great nation that we were founded to be. The nation that is not the envy of others but the model of they can become.

[BYoung976]

Now I know we have some trollers on this board and that's fine as well. Hell I frequent their boards as well. I was always told to KNOW your enemy or in this case the opposition because I don't consider the right my enemy; just not my cup of tea. I hope that those of you who are trolling realize that your party need to effectively change it's overtly evident perception as the party of exclusion. In all of Senator's McCain rallies, I rarely see non-white supporters. That is not the face of America and unfortunately for your party you can no longer rely on just the white vote that has carried your party for so long. If you don't wake up and smell the coffee soon your party will go the way of the whigs.

[Swedishgal]

Considering what disasters the Repubs and their deregs has wrought, we can only hope they go the way of the whigs.

[magicmary]

You know what, Barack is all of us! His maternal lineage looks just like mine just as his paternal lineage looks like yours! Barack said in an interview that he has people in his family who look like Margaret Thatcher and some who look like Bernie Mac! I'm my deepest heart of hearts I hope this will inspire all of us to get behind the concept of a true "family of man". The world is too small for us not to have 100% regard for each other. The racist and violent voices out there sound diminished, nasty, ugly and weak like a dying bumblebee in the face of this great moment in history!
Not only that but he's just so freakin' smart and so is Michelle! I want a *smart* president!!

[Swedishgal]

You are right about that! We've had Joe Six Pack the last eight years with disastrous results. Its high time for somebody alot smarter than us and Obama is it. He has so much class.

[readyfornewleadership]

there are a lot of us

[jcahill]

BYYoung976
great post

I have been in weekend volunteer groups where the assembled look like America itself
Last weekend we had 2 African american couples with their kids, 4 hispanics-one man who brought his young daughter, myself, wife and two kids (white), 3 Asian woman instructor­....differ­ent backgrounds, income groups-all bonded together on common ground-all together to make a difference---each of us giving up a beautiful Southern california saturday to make calls for the campaign_

As we started_ all sat in a circle_debriefed each other on philosophy and how to talk to people who answered our calls_then, we grabbed our scripts and phone lists
and off we went ---together, making hundreds of calls into battleground states for Barack.
After our 4 hour shift we sat together and agreed---this is how to do it.
Together.
Barack Obama's power to bring together folks of all backgrounds can be a powerful tool for change once he is elected. This is just the beginning of a new American togetherness.
I have never so vigorously participated in the political process in all my life...
and I have never been so proud as to have participqted in this one on behalf of this wonderful, humble candidate who I never think of as "black" --or of "mixed race"----
I just think of him as my_
hero

Let's rock the VOTE everybody!!

[GunnyJ]

If McC win this election because Obama is black, then the course of the United States of America deserves what it will get.......­.

[Meggie]

Yup.

[trinidadgirl]

And curse....