Bradley Who? Here Comes the Obama Effect
Everyone knows about the dreaded Bradley Effect: the phenomenon that leaves white voters loath to tell pollsters they won't vote for a black candidate. There's been a lot of fretting about this recently -- fretting, I find, that correlates with age: the older you are, the more likely you are to believe the Bradley Effect will turn up in this election. Here are some reasons Democrats needn't be overly worried, in ascending order of importance:
1. The event that gave the BE its name -- the 1982 California gubernatorial election, when Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles, polled well and then lost resoundingly -- took place 26 years ago. Don't you think the world has changed a little bit since then, especially regarding tolerance? Consider a prejudice once thought to be even more intense than racial prejudice: If we've made even a quarter of the progress in racial matters that we have in issues regarding sexuality, that alone turns the Bradley Effect on its ear.
2. There are 60 million Americans of voting age who hadn't yet reached the age of eight in 1982. Don't you think their racial attitudes are different from the people who have disappeared from the voting roles in that time -- namely, their dead grandparents?
3. Tennessee, 2006: The Democratic candidate for the Senate was a black man, Harold Ford. Tennessee hadn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1990. George Bush carried the state in 2004 by a 14 point margin. Republicans ran an ad, right before Election Day, suggesting that Ford had a taste for white women. In this very red state, with a black population of only 17%, Ford lost by just 3 percentage points. More to the point, he did better in the election than in the pre-election polling.
4. One recent, ill-conceived analysis suggests that 6% of people polled will not admit that they will not vote for a black man. Ask yourself: even if this were accurate, how many of them would be likely to vote for a liberal Democrat anyway? How many of them live in states that McCain is going to carry no matter what, like Texas or Mississippi? How many live in states that Obama is going to carry no matter what, like New York or California?
5. Finally, and most importantly, isn't there another shoe to drop on this issue -- namely, the number of people who will vote for Obama because he's black? I'm not talking about white voters who think it's time for a black president, or who want to feel good about their own racial attitudes -- those are Democratic voters in any case. I'm talking about the increased turnout among black voters. In recent elections, 51% of registered blacks voters showed up at the polls. Do you think that number will be up 10%? 20%? More? So do I. And that's just registered black voters. Registration of new black voters in states like Virginia and North Carolina has been one of the Obama organization's most notable accomplishments.
As a result, I'm looking for the debut of the Obama Effect -- a level of increased participation among black voters that may change the electoral map for years to come.
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Actually I believe we are going to see a REVERSE Bradley Effect.
it's my opinion that there is a not insubstantial segment of the population that will PUBLICLY say they would never vote for a black man to be president and answer pollsters saying they are for McCain. But when they get into the voting booth will pull the lever for Obama. It might be out of fear of being ostracized in the community or fear of being seen a sympathizer, but in the stillness and solitudde behind the curtain, there is only ONE logical and intelligent choice this election cycle: Obama.
Of course, there is about 10-15 percent of the population in this country that is openly or closet racist and they would vote for None of the Above before they'd vote for Obama.
Sad, at the dawn of the 21st century, that we still haven't evolved as a society yet.
Reverse thing is absolutely true. I have a relative down in Texas, big Republican apparatchik. Confides to me there is no way he could vote McCain and that he knows Palin is a cipher. Also tells me he would never say that out loud. Might go Obama or write-in.
He's a transplant from up north, and a moderate. Not that Obama would win Texas, but maybe there are more crypto-Obamaphiles and -McCainophobes out there than we know.
Unfortunately, there's more than the Bradley Effect and possibly voting machines that Obama's going to have to overcome. This just in: six states have been found to have been purging their voter registration files in what appears to be a violation of the law. http://new
The article says that it seems to be non-intentional, but I'll let you be the judge. The six states are Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina. How convenient that five of the six are swing states and the sixth was considered a potential battleground state up until a week ago.
If you are a new voter, make sure that you are on the rolls. Probably wouldn't hurt even if you aren't a new voter. It disgusting how so many things whether racism, potential machine problems, disenfranchsement activities, innuendo attacks, xenophobia, and now this, Obama's having to overcome. While he's doing well even in the face of all of this, one has to wonder if there's going to be a final straw.
Plan to vote early...
Then if there is something funky going on you have time to resolve your voting issue before election day.
Well....I am 47 and white and live in NYC. One day at the doctors I struck up a conversaiton with a woman of color and I don't know how we got on the topic but she said that prejudice against people of color runs rampant in Manhattan. Now NYC is not the warm bath of liberalism I knew from my youth but I was shocked to hear her say this and asked her what she meant.
She gave several examples from her own life and her family and friends - where they had been turned down for apartment rentals, snubbed at job interviews, etc.
So I thought about it and realized that in my apartment building with around 135 apartments, the only people of color were the doormen. I started paying attention at restaurants, and indeed expecially at higher end restaurants the employees were a mix of white, hispanic, middle eastern but no African Americans.
I like Obama and I despise the Republican ticket so I sure hope this country is not as racist as I fear it is, but I am worried...
The hope is in numbers. The racists aren't going to vote for Obama anyway. But there are fewer and fewer of them. What you're describing is terrible, but it's population shift, not increases in racism.
As for race and the election, gains in voter registration-- not just minorities and young people, but millions of previously disengaged Americans-- will be one of the great legacies of the Obama campaign. Turnout was up in 2004, but still almost 40% of eligible voters sat the election out. He might win anyway, but if tunout is close to 70%, Obama will win in a landsllde. Any Bradley effect will be neutralized by these trends, not to mention the economy.
I'm a 50 year old AA woman originally from NYC and, no disrespect, but many New Yorkers live in a weird bubble below 96th street. Kind of like the Seinfeld effect where you don't actually see any AAs; but AAs and latinos make up the majority of the population. I mean how often do you actually interact with those in The Bronx, Brooklyn or north of Central park? I had the worst time 35 years ago trying to find employment WITH an Ivy League degree; HR officers who were enthusiastic speaking with me on the telephone and reading my resume looked really puzzled when I showed up for the interview. I guess I don't really 'sound' black. :-) I hope that has changed now.
My DREAM is that we will have another kind of Barack Effect if he's elected POTUS.
-When more AA and latino kids BELIEVE in the American dream and work towards it. There will be less
-Less minority on minority crime
-Greater rates of HS and college graduation
-Lower rates of incarceration
-Lower rates of self-abusive behavior that bind people to hopeless lives of drugs and crime
-A safer, saner America for EVERYONE!
Make sure we let Diebold KNOW we not taking their shady sh%$!! this time!!
http://www
I prefer to think of the CELL PHONE effect. Cell phone users are not being included in the polling and they represent a young demographic. If they were included Obama would be polling much higher.
I'm not sure that matters as much as you'd think. Most respectable polls are representing "cell phone only" people. Also, young voters are notorious for not showing up at the polls. I hope it's different this year...
"Most respectable polls are representing "cell phone only" people. "
Can you name one please? All of the polls I've seen only use landlines. Considering that 14% of US households don't have landlines, the polls are very skewed.
"Also, young voters are notorious for not showing up at the polls. I hope it's different this year..."
Do you know why Obama is the Democratic presidential nominee? Because Iowa college students gave him a chance. Don't underestimate us.
They are adding a fudge factor since it is illegal to make people pay for them to call them.
They are not allowed to call cell phones. It's against the law. If they call you and you tell them that you are on a cell phone, and they call again, it's a $50,000 fine, for the first offense. Trust me, they are NOT calling cell phones. They are doing what they think is their best job to ACCOUNT for these people, but they don't really know.
The O effect? Is that the same as voter fraud?
No. You are thinking about the Diebold effect, or maybe the Bush V. Gore effect, or the GOP caging effect, or maybe the Katherine Harris effect. Take your pick.
It's ok. One day you will come to accept President Obama.
For who he is and how he scraped and shaped the country back together.
I'm standing by my notion of the McCain Effect. Allow me to define it. The McCain Effect is that when the candidate of your party is so weak, their campaign so awful, that despite what you tell the pollsters and your friends, you vote for the other candidate, however reluctantly.
Let me give you a more grounded example. You're a Republican in a red state. The talk in the diners and coffee shops is of how terrible that socialist/communist guy with the funny name is. You concur and join in the general chatter. But in your gut, you're getting a gnawing feeling. Your guy is all over the place. Inconsistent and incoherent. He's chosen a running mate - who stands a pretty darn good chance of ascending to the presidency within 4 years - that is likely to be, well, just plum dangerous.
So you go to vote. And you, with a heavy heart and a prayer of forgiveness to St. Ronald of Reagan, give your vote to the other guy. You know that when all is said and done, he may be many things, but he ain't dumb or dangerous. You can't say that for your own guy.
If there's any trace of the Bradley Effect left in the election, the McCain effect is more than enough to counteract and surpass it.
EXACTLY!!! Thank you! I've been saying for months, especially lately with how truly pathetic the McCain-palin ticket, that the Bradley Effect will be countered by its opposite:
Specifically, there will be many people who will tell their grand ol' white friends and family they are voting McCain, but in the PRIVACY of the booth, they will, quite anonymously, and with no fanfare, vote for OBAMA, and then turn around, leave, and go moosehunting and tell their friends they voted for mccain....
...and these are the folks who won't tell anyone - a phone poll, an exit poll - that they voted for the black candidate. They will just do it quietly.
It's the "I like my party, but I love my job" scenario.
HarrytheHat, thank you for the HOPE.
This is known also known as "The McCaine Mutiny" .
I pray that the God of these Christian people prevails upon them to do the Jesus thing and vote Obama, who is the candidate that Jesus would vote for, were he around. Jesus, according to my understanding of the Bible, would NEVER tolerate and support the intolerant, abusive hyperbolic rantings of John McCain, Cindy McCain and Sarah Palin. Jesus was a tolerant, good, kind, neighbourly man.
If you are a "Christian", meaning, a believer in Him, then ,whether you like it or not, you are compelled to support the person most like Him. Remember, as a Peace preaching Semite,( non-white Middle Easterner), tolerance was central to His ministry. Peace, Love, Kindness and Tolerance. The planks of Obama,s platform.
Go with your conscience now!
OK,
But if the democratic party starts asking if I have accepted Jeebus as my personal savior before I can caucus like the GOP, then I am out of there.
Well written Barrister and thank you!
Ok. Where to start? First off, I am white. How white? My father is a state official in the Sons of Confederate Veterans! (I am not a member of the SCV for a lot of reasons)
I have already voted absentee for Obama. I did not vote for him because he is black and I needed to feel better about myself or to excuse my ancestors transgressions.
I voted for him because he is a well-educated, articulate man whom I believe will best represent our country as president. I believe he closest represents my own ideals and dreams. Race has nothing to do with it.
I am under 30, and like a lot of younger Americans, am sickened by what has gone on in our country's past. I believe Obama will help us put much of that behind us. It has no business in the present.
What's your take on how your father and/or his friends in SCF views the candidates?
I have no idea how the SCV views the candidates. I don't hang around them at all. I live overseas currently so I don't even get a lot of hear-say from back home. You could check their website. It might have some information.
My dad is a reasonable man when it comes to politics. Some of his views are surprisingly progressive.
He has danced around the question every time I have asked him who he plans to vote for. I suspect he will be one that will vote for Obama and not ever admit it publicly. Publicly saying that he voted for Obama could lead to some awkwardness at certain social functions that he attends I guess.
He and I have some major disagreements when it comes to politics but he is always willing to listen to my side, as I try to listen to his.
Who knows? Maybe I got through.
Well put, dpiyjrtmfr.
Thanks.
I'm with you dpiyjrtmfr, I'm a 41 year old white woman, and an ex republican. (Pre-Bush 1&2. ) It galls me that ANY American would bring race into this, but that being the truth about America, I am even more horrified that ANY American would consider putting That Woman in office. It's revolting and absolutely embarrassing. She's a vile, nasty, ill-achieved, contemptuous snake in the grass and the voters that can't see this will be sorry. We all will one day - even if she doesn't make it this time, we know she'll run again. She's that power-hungry.
Obama, on the other hand, is a gentler and more well-spoken person. He's a politician to be sure, but we don't have to be concerned about him running around the world inciting the wrath of other foreign leaders. It's time. Let's show the rest of the world that we are not as stupid as they think we are.
Let's just hope your vote is counted.
Your first point is so bizarre that I haver posted this before even reading the rest of your article.
"If we've made even a quarter of the progress in racial matters that we have in issues regarding sexuality, that alone turns the Bradley Effect on its ear."
Have you heard an outspoken Alaskan lady who believes that homosexuality is an abomination that can be cured through prayer had an approval rating of 70%?
AND, contrary to left-wing myth, polls show that the majority of the population were aware of her fundamentalist beliefs when her approval ratings were so high.
Alaska really is the Last Frontier - my experience in visiting family there is that on the whole, social attitudes of the 1950's are alive and well there. (Not MY family - hardcore liberals all.)
Palin's poll numbers are low and sinking everyday. Maybe you should get some updated data before you try to make a point.
A tip - engage brain then type.
Palin's approval ratings fell because after her disastrous interviews, her religious views were barely mentioned in the Gibson/Couric interviews.
When her approval ratings were high, 70-80% described her as a 'strong conservative' - they knew her views.
If your governor had the oil companies cut a check to each state citizen, he/she would be much beloved too. Gov. Palin was largely unknown 2 months ago. She said all the right, make that far right, things at the convention and was well received. It's easy to like the candidate that you don't know, but the numbers started sliding when her understanding of the issues was shown to be lacking. She has shown no interest in the lower 48 or Hawaii during her time as gov. Her abject lack of curiousity about the world and the issues that effect war, poverty, disease, malnutrition, industry, negates her ability to speak articulately let alone lead on these issues. It's no surprise that her poll numbers are coming down.
Oh if I could only believe in this article...
Nice try Mr. Okrent, but it's going to be up to white people to make sure this election isn't close enough to get stolen. Whites make up between 70-80% of the population (when you include Hispanics/Latinos who consider themselves white and other people that pass or are functionally white). Sir, you should not try to shift the focus onto the victims of racism. Look, a poison creates it's own antidote; pro-Obama votes among blacks (among other reasons) are primarily a response to racism. The moment of truth is almost upon us.
Good article! I've been very mildly worried about Bradley, especially when I see it promoted by a worried Obama supporter or a smug Repub. Nate Silver does well debunking the whole thing.
http://www
there is an additional component to the Obama Effect ---
white voters who will never admit out loud that they are willing to vote for a black man but know, in their hearts, that Obama is the right choice for their children and their grandchildren's future and will "pull the lever" for Obama once they are alone, with their god, in a voting booth ..........
Frankly, I'm not worried about the Bradley effect. It's the Bush effect that's got me scared witless. You know, the phenomenon where voters are loath to tell a pollster that they won't vote for a candidate who can construct a complete, coherent sentence.
Twice no doubt
You can't blame them for not saying as much--that category of people aren't capable enough of elocution to express their true feelings in meaningful terminology.
The majority were perfectly willing to say they preferred candidates who are as slueless as they are and have failed even more spectacularly in everything they've ever attempted. Hopefully this largest portion of that group has learned their lesson. Or at least, those who value learning.
Learning only occurs when there is a will to learn.
So don't count on it.
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