Bradley Who? Here Comes the Obama Effect

Everyone knows about the dreaded Bradley Effect: the phenomenon that leaves white voters loath to tell pollsters they won't vote for a black candidate. There's been a lot of fretting about this recently -- fretting, I find, that correlates with age: the older you are, the more likely you are to believe the Bradley Effect will turn up in this election. Here are some reasons Democrats needn't be overly worried, in ascending order of importance:

1. The event that gave the BE its name -- the 1982 California gubernatorial election, when Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles, polled well and then lost resoundingly -- took place 26 years ago. Don't you think the world has changed a little bit since then, especially regarding tolerance? Consider a prejudice once thought to be even more intense than racial prejudice: If we've made even a quarter of the progress in racial matters that we have in issues regarding sexuality, that alone turns the Bradley Effect on its ear.

2. There are 60 million Americans of voting age who hadn't yet reached the age of eight in 1982. Don't you think their racial attitudes are different from the people who have disappeared from the voting roles in that time -- namely, their dead grandparents?

3. Tennessee, 2006: The Democratic candidate for the Senate was a black man, Harold Ford. Tennessee hadn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1990. George Bush carried the state in 2004 by a 14 point margin. Republicans ran an ad, right before Election Day, suggesting that Ford had a taste for white women. In this very red state, with a black population of only 17%, Ford lost by just 3 percentage points. More to the point, he did better in the election than in the pre-election polling.

4. One recent, ill-conceived analysis suggests that 6% of people polled will not admit that they will not vote for a black man. Ask yourself: even if this were accurate, how many of them would be likely to vote for a liberal Democrat anyway? How many of them live in states that McCain is going to carry no matter what, like Texas or Mississippi? How many live in states that Obama is going to carry no matter what, like New York or California?

5. Finally, and most importantly, isn't there another shoe to drop on this issue -- namely, the number of people who will vote for Obama because he's black? I'm not talking about white voters who think it's time for a black president, or who want to feel good about their own racial attitudes -- those are Democratic voters in any case. I'm talking about the increased turnout among black voters. In recent elections, 51% of registered blacks voters showed up at the polls. Do you think that number will be up 10%? 20%? More? So do I. And that's just registered black voters. Registration of new black voters in states like Virginia and North Carolina has been one of the Obama organization's most notable accomplishments.

As a result, I'm looking for the debut of the Obama Effect -- a level of increased participation among black voters that may change the electoral map for years to come.

Comments

[rosal]

If this is going to be the replacement for the Supreme Court deciding, I don't think this is going to fly. People might said one thing and vote another way, but, people don't give money to a candidate they don't really like. Compare the donations to Obama and McCain, count the number of new Dems registered, count the number of people at his rallies, and the number of volunteers. Plus, maybe in person people would lie about their choice, but I don't think they are so careful when they are polled by phone.
If the Repbs want to use this as an excuse for "winning", they better think twice. Millions and millions of supporters are not going to sit in silence as in 2000.

[HelenofOz]

"Tennessee, 2006: ...ran an ad, right before Election Day, suggesting that Ford had a taste for white women...."
I know I am an outsider and all, but there is something seriously wrong with the US electoral system that it is possible for a Party to run these types of advertisements. I am not going to pretend that we don't have racism in Australia and that Aboriginal people are not under-represented in our elected officials, and that political parties don't run smear ads - although NOTHING like what you can get away with in the US - ours have to be based on truth or an independant arbitrator pulls them from air. But come-on - how can it be acceptable - morally, legally, ethically, I could go on - to run an ad like that?
Obama / Biden 2008 - wish I could vote!

[shaunmarie]

Let me see if I can explain the thinking behind this:

It is considered better in the US to allow candidates to say whatever they want, unimpeded and allow te other side to respond, under the notion that a "free press" - doing their job - will explain the facts to the electorate. And honestly, as much as our mainstream press is a mostly useless institution, Americans DO have access to the information they need to make an informed decison (the problem lies in how lazy the electorate can be in seeking out and thinking about information)

The danger of having an arbitrator is that the arbitrator could side with one party over another, and essentially control the outcome of the campaigns. Think of it - what if the current administration or legislative branch got to appoint the person or panel performing the arbitration?

Finally, though we have truth in advertising laws, they do not trump our first amendment, which is PARTICULARLY important when it comes to political speech.

[RobLuzecky]

I understand all of your points Shaunmarie, but i am still somewhat confused; doesn't America have hate speech laws? I guess I'm thinking of a argument in the American Supreme Court a few years back where pornography was defined (and i'm summarizing) as anything that represents or conveys a message that is deemed offensive to the public as a whole, and this argument effectively put a constraint on the first amendment. I wonder if there hasn't been similar argument with respect to hate speech? And if no such law has been passed, what about issues of attempting to instigate a riot or civil unrest; could I say anything at all in America, or are there limitations to the first amendment's protections?

sorry if these questions are somewhat inane, but as a Canadian I am as baffled by these campaign ads.

[athenasword]

We do have laws about slander and hate speech. But to go after every single ad would be time consuming and expensive. I think we all rely on the press and counter-arguments from the other campaign. You are asking good questions, though!!!!!!!

[NCvote4O]

Helen, We wish you could vote too. It is comforting to know that people outside the US are paying so much attention to this election. It shows that we all have a lot at stake. And our reputation is in the balance. Obama will bring back the respect we need to perform on the global platform. On NOv 4th, the world will be watching and I know we can deliver good news.

[athenasword]

Hey Helen... glad you're watching! I live overseas and it has been SO interesting to talk to people from all over the world about this election and about Sen. Obama. When people find out we are American the first thing they want to do is ask about the election! And, we have really enjoyed hearing the views from Oz, the UK, Germany and Asia.

Wish you could vote!

[KvnM]

If memory serves me right, the election in which the Bradley effect took place in 1982 had a gun control initiative that motivated a lot of Republicans to vote. Former Governor Jerry Brown lost a race for the Senate, having lost several points from the pre-election polls. There was almost certainly a Bradley effect in California back in 1982 but it was probably not as severe as the gap between the pre-election polling and the election results would make it seem.

[TennGal]

To constantly reduce everything to Black or White is still such a 20th century narrow viewpoint. In my opinion what also is a counter balance to the Bradley Affect is to apply Obama's appeal to so many People of Color - American Born Asians, Hispanics, Middle Eastern, Middle Asian, South Pacific Islanders, Native Americans.­..,Recent naturalized citizens of the world, ,. These aren't necessarily people who would vote Democratic but represent the true melting pot that is America and will counter the right wing radical fundametalist conservatives who sell the rest of our nation short.

[OtayPanky]

I'd like to believe that you're right, and that the Bradley effect is history.

But I don't.

So let's both hope that Barack and his team can pile up not just pluralities, but big majorities in all the swing states, so that he can stand the potential diminishment on election day and still come out ahead.

[Boadicea]

The Obama effect I see firsthand in my own family and among old friends is this: Republicans embarassed to admit that this time they're voting for the Democrat, that this black man is actually remarkable, and the best thing to come along in a long time.

That's the Obama effect.

[Awash]

"Reverse Bradley Effect" = Bubbas4Bama

However this might might be offset by the "BamaLaska" vote = Alaska is Alabama with snow

God Blass Da Blue States and maybe Texas

[robeson]

Would the Bradley Effect also distort exit polls. Are people still lying after their vote?

[shelobo]

Depends on which STATE you are in.During the primaries here in my small Texas town ,people DID tell us they voted FOR the candidate ,that their family/friends /Boss /Preachers were against, BUT would NEVER tell ANYONE that they voted for a Black Candidate and were afraid someone would find out ,so they did not stay for the Precinct conventions afterwards because certian people would dissaprove of them voteing for a Black. Three different women told me their Preachers would cast them into hell if they found out they voted for a Black ,and this was at the height of the Wright controvers­y.Several men told me that if their BEER BUD'S found out they voted for a Black they were dead meat ! We only had about 10 middle aged WHITE women who even bothered to vote at all.We asked them if Hillary lost who would they vote for in the general ,two said McCain ,because he's white !! The rest said Obama ,BUT they would NEVER tell that they did .So YES ,SOME people do lie about their votes.The serious question we as Americans should ask people is ,WHY are people still AFRAID to stand AGAINST racism? WHY are people still distrustfull of ANY person ,good or bad because of their skin color ?Why do we let Racism CONTINUE in this WONDERFUL country ?Can anyone come up with a logical answer that fits into THIS era ,not fifty years BACK?

[mamacat]

I think that a lot of people here in Orange County, CA are also afraid to be seen as an Obama supporter. When I walk around with an Obama button on, a number of people will wink, nod, smile, and even tell me they are for him also. However, they are subdued, and I think obviously concerned about all the hatred that they see in the MSM for him at the GOP meetings.

[forworldpeace]

We may in fact see a "Reverse Bradley Effect"- from those who say they support McCain but who will actually vote for Obama.

[Heleric]

Imagine for a moment that you are drowning and a man swims out to save you.
Would you care if he was black or white?

[ptillen]

Oh BOY is this a good point!!!

[3rdCitizen]

Nice analysis, but given the current state & trend of all the major polls, I'm actually working hard to avoid having too much hope. I still remember how awful I felt after election day 2004, & if it should go wrong again (for whatever reasons), I know this one would be at least as bad. So, I'm just burying myself in the day-to-day matters of what I can do to help the Obama campaign. I won't feel confident until the polls have closed & Obama has been declared the winner by every major news organization. Until then, it's way too early to take anything for granted.

[ElSidd]

Yes, crazier things have happened. I thought about it with Obama/Clinton race. I had to take a nap whenever I thought about the possibility of her winning. For me, I call it the "Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown effect"

[BIG JOHN]

THE BIG POLL IS THE ONE ON NOV. 4TH. THAT SAYS THE NEXT P.O.T.US IS B.O.

NO MORE BUSH, CHANEY, PALIN OR MCSAME.


GET OUT THE VOTE. MAKE A PHONE CALL, DRIVE AN OLD PERSON TO THE POLLS. IT'S NOT OVER UNTIL THE FAT LADY SINGS. SHE'S WARMING UP........­...

[apoyo]

Let's hope so.

[ReasonablySkeptical]

During a recent drive through an affluent neighborhood in Houston, I noticed something. The lack of signs/stickers for either presidential candidate. There are plenty for local and congressional candidates (even after the storm), but only a handful for Obama and even less for McCain. This is the same neighborhood that has proudly displayed "W" signs and stickers on every other well-manicured yard and Mercedes for nearly a decade. Heck, there were more for Gore and Kerry. Today, nada. Is it the Bradley Effect? The Obama Effect? Maybe it's The Bush Effect -- former Bush supporters that don't want to be (A) advertising that they cannot stomach voting for Obama even if it means another poor GOP pick [the McCain "I must be crazy to keep going back for more" sign], or (B) advertising that their prior pick was so bad that they are switching sides [the Obama "but what will the neighbors think" sign]? Hmmm.

[bobsmith]

Or maybe people are sick of both parties - the "screw them all" effect.

[Mikecoatl]

Probably they can't stomach McCain. Not that the rest of us can, mind you, but conservatives never liked McCain. And the affluent aren't going to drink the Palin kool-aid. Also keep in mind that Bush has roots down here in Texas. BTW, I have seen very few signs here (San Antonio) and sometimes the only sticker I see all day is my own Obama decal.

[atciii]

i have met plenty of white people who will secretly vote for Obama, but would never say it out loud because of the people they are around. so as you may have a "bradley effect" you have Closet Obama Supporters as well!!!

[shelobo]

I'm a white ,60 year old female and I have a 'Obama For President ' sign in my front yard and I live in a town of a little over Eight Thousand ,a few Blacks and LOTS of Hispanics. PLENTY of people have said that by my supporting Obama , I had lowered their opinion of me ,my Husbands Boss Mother and a few co-workers speak very little to my husband because of this.Does it matter to me ,yes because it's MY VIEWS not my Husbands nor my familys.Do I care or am I scared because I am voteing for a Black man ?Hell NO ,this is AMERICA and it's because I live in this great country that I don't have to be afraid to vote for anyone of any Color ! I dispise what John McCain is doing and his wife and his campaign ,because AMERICANS have fought for to long for the FREEDOM to be able to VOTE for whoever we choose.I don't see a persons skin color when I look at them ,I see whats INSIDE and how they act towards their fellow AMERICANS .When I hear a person speak ,I don't 'hear' the color of their words ,I try and understand the MEANING of their words.PATR­IOTISM to ME means love of and devotion to one's country and THE PEOPLE of that Country. White/Black /Mixed ,even speckeled ,ALL are Americans .I will Vote Obama /Biden ....for that reason

[mamacat]

Bravo.

[athenasword]

Great stuff. Bravo. My parents are in a similar position and have been openly supporting Obama for months. I know they have taken some cr@p from a few people.... but have also changed some minds and had some great discussions in their small rural town.

Chin up and I'm glad you are standing by what you believe!!!!!