Bradley Who? Here Comes the Obama Effect

Everyone knows about the dreaded Bradley Effect: the phenomenon that leaves white voters loath to tell pollsters they won't vote for a black candidate. There's been a lot of fretting about this recently -- fretting, I find, that correlates with age: the older you are, the more likely you are to believe the Bradley Effect will turn up in this election. Here are some reasons Democrats needn't be overly worried, in ascending order of importance:

1. The event that gave the BE its name -- the 1982 California gubernatorial election, when Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles, polled well and then lost resoundingly -- took place 26 years ago. Don't you think the world has changed a little bit since then, especially regarding tolerance? Consider a prejudice once thought to be even more intense than racial prejudice: If we've made even a quarter of the progress in racial matters that we have in issues regarding sexuality, that alone turns the Bradley Effect on its ear.

2. There are 60 million Americans of voting age who hadn't yet reached the age of eight in 1982. Don't you think their racial attitudes are different from the people who have disappeared from the voting roles in that time -- namely, their dead grandparents?

3. Tennessee, 2006: The Democratic candidate for the Senate was a black man, Harold Ford. Tennessee hadn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1990. George Bush carried the state in 2004 by a 14 point margin. Republicans ran an ad, right before Election Day, suggesting that Ford had a taste for white women. In this very red state, with a black population of only 17%, Ford lost by just 3 percentage points. More to the point, he did better in the election than in the pre-election polling.

4. One recent, ill-conceived analysis suggests that 6% of people polled will not admit that they will not vote for a black man. Ask yourself: even if this were accurate, how many of them would be likely to vote for a liberal Democrat anyway? How many of them live in states that McCain is going to carry no matter what, like Texas or Mississippi? How many live in states that Obama is going to carry no matter what, like New York or California?

5. Finally, and most importantly, isn't there another shoe to drop on this issue -- namely, the number of people who will vote for Obama because he's black? I'm not talking about white voters who think it's time for a black president, or who want to feel good about their own racial attitudes -- those are Democratic voters in any case. I'm talking about the increased turnout among black voters. In recent elections, 51% of registered blacks voters showed up at the polls. Do you think that number will be up 10%? 20%? More? So do I. And that's just registered black voters. Registration of new black voters in states like Virginia and North Carolina has been one of the Obama organization's most notable accomplishments.

As a result, I'm looking for the debut of the Obama Effect -- a level of increased participation among black voters that may change the electoral map for years to come.

Comments

[kayatarms]

Yes! I keep pushing this, able to be in a position to hear people from all ethnicities, a few told me that in front of their friends they are saying no,,to tamp down an argument etc. but admit that they will vote their interests not what their family and friends want them to do! You'd be surprised that more people feel this way than to the contrary! I am glad that my career puts me in the position to actually hear more stories such as this time and time again. As the date is drawing nearer, the more I hear the hushes that it's just talk....and surprisingly I get this from Republicans who are in the closet! Very very unhappy with the PTAlin VP very poor dangerous pick and now two of em on top of it all!

[demfriend]

I like the way the Bradley Effect was explained without as much bias as it is the underlying thought process we have in some areas even we might be unaware of. But the loutright lie about who they will vote for happens no matter if race or party is a part of it. Always has been that way when you work with/for republicans it's been wise to never talk politics with at work. But we have heard with our own ears the hate whipped up by the GOP ticket and if its' racist then they will vote againest Obama anyway. That's the crowd the played to. I would like to think we could be free to talk about who we vote for but I still have friends today that lie about voting for Bush last time.

[JubilationLeigh]

Good points. And I'd like to add another one, Obama's running mate is an erratic 72 year old. That's gotta mean something.

[Haniel]

Erratic in exactly what way?

I think your confusing "erratic" with "gaffe prone." They're two completely different things.

[CaliTLC]

He is ERRATIC. McCain says "yes," then "no." He says "right," then "left." He says "up," then "down." He says, "north," then "south." He says less spending, then he says buy up millions worth of bad mortgages. He said, no bailout of AIG, then he said we should bailout AIG. Need more be said on the issue. He is ERRATIC - defined as: having no regular or fixed course; wandering; lacking regularity.

[Passenger57]

When the economic crisis hit,McCain said that the fundamentals....you know the rest.,on the same day the stocks took a 500+ point hit. Later that day,he had to "rephrase" that comment. Then,he started blaming everyone for the mess - including Obama - of course,never mentioning his own record of supporting deregulation. Then he said that if he were Prez,he would fire Chris Cox,which he couldn't do as POTUS. When this was pointed out, he said (on 60 Minutes,I think) that he'd ask for his resignation - and when he asks people to resign,they resign (wtf?!).Then,he said he was going to suspend his campaign and not do the first debate unless the bailout plan was ironed out...well,he never suspended his campaign,and he showed up at the debate even though the deal wasn't done.Then,when they fiinally had a deal,he signed off on it - but openly wished that Bush would veto it.
That sounds pretty erratic to me.

[BMS]

um - you mean Obama's opponent, not his running mate, right? :)

[shelobo]

Joe Biden is SIXTY FIVE years young 'wink 'wink' My Friend ....

[genia]

It is my opinion that the republicans are fixing to cheat....voting machine fraud. If and when they pull this off and steal the election.......This will be their spin......the Bradley effect.
They need something believable ....not to raise suspicions.. They also need for this theory to be repeatedly mentioned ahead of time.....as it is.

[wadda]

If the election is close they can steal it with deniable cover. This is why there needs to be a landslide.

Go vote; bring a friend.

[Bombenhagel]

I am posting all around... Forgive me.

Am I missing something??? All they are talking about on major news networks is that McCain still has a very good chance of winning... Today I've seen some screwy poll numbers.

I am aware the MSM has an interest in giving the impression that it is a close race; it's good for ratings.

I am not a tinfoil hat guy in this respect. I am very optimistic that we will win and America will be saved, no dramatic statement implied.

I consider myself to be well-read in general, and well studied throughout this campaign. I've compiled an enormous volume of data, using web skills I developed compiling evidence against GWB. I read other sites (townhall and foxnews).

Take Barack's 7-9% national poll lead (October 7th), coupled with Barack's 90+ lead in Electoral College projections, and then introduce the kind of stuff in the news today... Multiply other intangibles like the Bradley Effect, and I gotta tell ya, I AM SCARED FOR THIS ELECTION.

HuffPo is a great resource to "tell us of progress and strengthen our blood," but it is only one view.

More than EVER, we must get active. I am hoping Arianna suspends comments for one day and gives instructions to contact 5 people via email or something. WE ARE NOT HOME FREE. Remember that. We must NOT relax. We must NOT get complacent. We MUST continue to reach out. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF US MUST VOTE, "WITHOUT" FAIL.

[fehlner]

This was my thought, exactly. Plant the cover now, to make the theft more deniable.

[Manx]

I think we'll experience the reverse Bradley effect, which will offset or surpass the Bradley effect. Many voters who wouldn't admit to their friends that they'd vote for Obama will vote for Obama in the privacy of the voting booth.

[atciii]

i agree, i have met plenty of white people who are secretly voting for Obama.

[Unsweet]

I've been thinking of this possibility for a while now wondering if there might be a reverse Bradley effect. Tonight on the Rachel Maddow show NC Governor (D) Mike Easley clearly stated that he expects a reverse Bradley effect in North Carolina. I live in a conservative (Republican) part of Virginia. I see a few MaCain yard signs, but not a single Obama sign, yet I know Obama has support here. There's also the fact that it's impossible to get an Obama yard sign. I'm sure they have their reasons. Anyway, I agree with Gov. Easley, there will be a reverse Bradley effect as traditional Republicans will not be fooled again into voting against their own best interests ... they just don't want to run the risk of losing their right-wing friends in the process of voting for Obama.

[retmarut]

Hey, I had the same thought. I hope we're right.

Onyly in America would Hardold Ford be considered "black," but that ad was nefarious nonetheless.

[marisyl]

And only in America would Rev. Wright be considered black. Go figure.

[ifonlyuknew]

Race will only matter to the people that support Mcain and Palin anyway. Just look at their ralies and their convention. Old white people, with scattered youth. Barack/Bide rallies and their convention looked liked America, white, black asian, hispanic,indian, male female, young old, diverse, America. All that diversity can't be wrong. McCain is right " change is coming" OBAMA/BIDEN 08/12

[SmartPuff]

Excellent Comment!

[anelder]

Well said, I'm one of the oldies, older than the baby boomers; and I see Obama as the great white (oops) hope. Can't see so good anymore, get everyone all mixed up.

[Bombenhagel]

Thanks for calming me down. I'm your new fan, ifyouonlyknew. :)

[rflctammt]

I have been voicing the likelihood of a similar "effect" for a few weeks now. I'll call it the "McCailen Effect."

I live in a city well-known for its conservative, right-wing views. It has become increasingly difficult over the past 8 years to speak in mixed company of being a Democrat or supporting any even-sight­ly-liberal position. In 2004, in a church I had attended for years, the pastor said in his sermon that "being a Christian is synonymous with being a Republican." 3,000 worshippers didn't blink an eye. (My family and I never returned.) In this town you can lose friends - and business - by admitting you're a Democrat.

But that doesn't mean everyone who lives here is stupid. Many people have had their eyes opened by the discouraging direction our country taken in the last 5+ years. Though it is still difficult to admit in many circles that one is an Obama supporter, I believe that, thanks to GWBush and McCailen, lots of folks know continuing down this path is dangerous. And I am pretty sure, that though they won't admit it to their friends (or pollsters) that they don't support McCailen - when they do vote - they will choose someone else!

[vrgtm]

Am white, 72, and had hard luck with white Christians. What's the next irrelevant question?

Hart knows his stuff. This is also an opportunity to overturn corporate control of elections. Witness the voter rebellion in both parties against the "*showcased" media offerings in the primaries resulting in outsider- candidates like Obama vs McCain. It suggest to me that the winner (Obama) will be able to push it further, through congressional houses to term limits and gerrymandered district resizing, and further rebellion against campaign financing and its sponsors. Both parties are in the mood now. We may never pass this way again.

*showcased? It looked to me like both primaries' debates were restricted to anticipated favorites. Obama was featured only as foil to Clinton, the corporate choice, but fooled the stage managers and won. Ditto; McCain.

[Ohg]

If this race is about color - then Obama wins - Obama is a unique man, able to bridge huge chasms of difference. Obama is the Color of Water. ...........
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/10/30/barack-obama-the-color-of-water/

[intellectualindependent]

While it is unknown to what extent if any the Bradley Effect will have in this election or whether or not the reverse Bradley Effect will occur still brings the point that race still matters in elections and politics. While historically it is fact that over 90% of African Amercian votes go to Democrat candidates no one has raised the question about whether or not with Barack Obama being the first legitimate African American to seek the nation's highest office, whether or not that 90% is voting based on skin color or substance. Not voting for Obama because he is black is just as bad if not not as bad as voting for Obama because he is black. Both votes for or against Obama are racist votes. I do suspect that if Obama does not win in November we will in fact see riots occuring in the streets of Chicago as cries that this has been the greatest injustice in American history and the election was stolen from Obama. Obama may very well win this election because of his race. Bbarack Obama many aruge would not be the nominee today if he were white, instead it would be McCain v. Hillary. Obama's policies are no different the Jimmy Carter's in the 1970s, they are just repackaged with a new bow on it, so people are lying to themselves if they claim he is a new kind of politician.

[marisyl]

I agree. I remember Bradley, and you cannot compare Obama to him. Bradley was a pawn of a Democratic machine, a mediocre mayor, tepid campaigner, not at all inspiring or particularly bright. Absolutely no comparison to the brilliant Obama.

[DaveC19]

I don't doubt there is a BE somewhat. It does concern me but not as much as:

the D!ebold effect

The Rove effect

The caging effect

the disenfranchised voter effect

The Republicans are already STEALING the election right now! That have already purged millions of Dem voter registrations. Just read what Greg Palast has to say about it then call your Dem representitive about this especially if you are a victim of it. Don't let them steal this election too!

[kellygrrrl]

they can only steal it if it's close. Just get busy!

[Haniel]

All People :

Make sure you are registered NOW!!!

[dubster]

I absolutely concur. Excellent point Dave. The republican strategists are superb at message control and fear-mongering. That's why they've won more presidential elections than democrats have unfortunately. But you're absolutely right, Rove the protege of Lee Atwater and the rest of their ilk are magnificent at presidential, power politics. They know how to game the system w/ the help of other diabolical and crooked cronies like Kathleen Harris the secretary of state in Florida that purged democratic voters and was reluctant for a recount (Greg Palast is an amazing investigative journalist - God Bless his work). Thus, those variables still come into play even if the BE does not. Hopefully, the economy will resonate enough w/ voters to vote their wallets and castigate the party in power that caused this fiasco i.e. GOP and elect Senator Obama!

[kellygrrrl]

26 years is a LONG time.

26 DAYS is a long time!!!!

WE would be wise to remember this and not fall prey to the polls and the media and the debates.

Keep your head down and stay focused!!!! Work the phone banks. Work the Registration Drives. Donate. Drive voters to the polls

GET THEM THERE! VOTE!!!!!!

[Indigo girl]

To Sandman323, I think you may be more spot on than anyone thinks. I think there are a lot of intelligent, thoughtful Republicans who will NOT vote for their party this time. Many of my Repub. acquaintances have voiced this to me. Also, to Okrent, as a former teacher in St. Pete, Florida, I can tell you thankfully, kids don't see color.

THINK ABOUT THIS:
This election has EVERYONE talking, which is so refreshing, and necessary if our country is to claim its spirituality. THINGS ARE CHANGING - What WE NEED TO DO as citizens is to maintain our level of interest and involvement in our government. We have seen the result of a general apathy and acceptance for what is, ie: mass media shoving garbage down our throats; top level executives in both the private AND public sector LIE to us and get away with a slap on the wrist; and an eternal indoctrination of an ' US V. THEM' mentality. 'Them' being a terrorist, or a communist, or a fascist, or whatever is in vogue for the current psychology of fear to permeate slowly to every American. Obama has a vision, as we all should, for creating an amazing country for ALL of us to live in. We need to do our part as well, We should 'be the change you want to see in the world' as Mahatma Ghandi said.

WE ARE WAKING UP SLOWLY BUT SURELY - LET'S BE READY TO CREATE AN AMAZING WORLD!

[cheeriogirl]

YES WE CAN

I couldn't add another thing Indigo-girl to your most excellent post!

[athenasword]

Amen to ALL of that! : )

[tuttlemsm]

Given the historical context in which blacks attempting to vote would get them murdered, many blacks are understandably reluctant to acknowledge any voting preference to any pollster under any circumstances. Therefore, there may be a "reverse Bradley effect" in which blacks say they're not voting or are undecided, but of course go vote for the black candidate.

[Mildmannered]

The polls take into account the number of blacks who will vote for Obama because he is black, but do not take into account the BE.

[byjiminy]

Not necessarily. The polls are calibrated to reflect likely voters. If more black voters show up than expected, the polls will underestimate the black vote.

[cjk002]

In my opinion, there were actually two examples in 2006 that debunk often repeated assumptions about race and voting. In addition to the example of Harold Ford actually getting more votes than the polls suggested in a conservative southern state, there was Ben Cardin's senate victory in Maryland. Cardin is a white Democrat who defeated a black Republican, Michael Steele, by winning the majority of the black vote. This debunks the theory/smear that blacks will always vote for a black candidate regardless of his political positions.

If those two examples from the 2006 election are any indication of what to expect this year, we nay not have much to worry about (I hope).