THE BLOG
09/26/2012 12:53 pm ET | Updated Nov 25, 2012

The Battle To Control Poll Narratives

With the presidential election closing in, pollsters, donors and campaign officials from both parties are scrambling to get ahead of the narrative now more than ever.

Romney officials say their own internal polls show the election being closer than what the public polls depict, which show Obama creating distance between the two campaigns, especially in some battleground states.

Obama's campaign pollster, Joel Benenson told Washington Post writer Greg Sargent that the Romney campaign is "delusional" to think the electorate is not as diverse as it was in 2008.

"There are some historical trends that appear to be pretty irreversible," he told Sargent. "That reality may be uncomfortable for the Romney campaign, but this will be an electorate that has been as diverse as the previous four presidential elections."

Benenson was responding to a quote from Romney campaign pollster Neil Newhouse. According to the Hill, Newhouse said, "I don't think [the polls] reflect the composition of what 2012 is going to look like."

Newhouse added that it's crazy to think Democrats will show up to the polls in such strong numbers as they did in 2008. Not only do they believe this to be the case, but they are banking on Republicans coming to the polls in strong numbers because of their unified opposition to President Obama.

Newhouse and similar Republicans think the mainstream polls are skewed to favor Obama and with their polls, the numbers show a different story. For instance, a POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground poll shows Romney with a 14 percent lead over Obama among middle-class families according to Fox Nation. According to Fox Nation, this demographic comprises about 54 percent of the American electorate.

The Romney campaign said they were not worried about the polling numbers. A Washington Postpoll shows Romney trailing Obama by 8 points in Ohio and 4 points in Florida; the Romney campaign said its internal reports don't support that claim. But, as Sam Stein of the The Huffington Post wrote, if the Romney campaign had numbers that were different from what the Washington Post poll showed, why haven't they released them?

The "Five Thirty Eight" blog by Nate Silver of the New York Times has Obama winning the electoral vote with 312.3 votes, a 79.7 percent chance of winning the presidential election and owning 51.2 percent of the popular vote.