Poll Numbers? We Don't Need Your Stinkin' Poll Numbers -- We've Got Google Instead

Back during the Democratic primary (which, when you think about it, feels like an entire lifetime ago) I looked briefly at how Google Trends, which shows the popularity of different search terms, so closely resembled the data coming out of the national pollsters. Google's search stats not only predicted the eventual outcome of the primary, but reflected the many twists and turns of that volatile race (this concept was independently expanded upon by Yale scholar Michael Giuffrida, whose report goes into far more detaily goodness).

Yet Google's numbers reflected nothing but passive search terms -- people may have been searching to get more information, to make a donation, or to find the latest hit piece. Their preference for a candidate had no bearing on the search volume, just the fact that they used the name.

The major polling firms, on the other hand, spent millions of dollars to get exact preferences from potential voters. But the data, whether it came from Google or it came from Rasmussen, mirrored each other.

Well today, with little more than a week left in the election cycle (and may I ad as an aside: thank god for that) it's worth another look.

Here's the numbers from Pollster.com, which averages all the national polls together. It's a snapshot of the race for the entire year:

And now the Google Trends report for the same timeframe:

And once again, you can see the ebb and flow of the campaign reflected -- the convention "bounce" for both men is clearly visible, as is the tightening of the race that followed, bringing McCain into an almost-perceptible lead briefly, before finally opening up into the clear Obama majority we see today.

Take the Pepsi challenge on the two charts, and you'd be hard pressed to guess which is which.

Which makes it all the more interesting to look at some of the key states in this campaign, over just the last 30 days:

Colorado

Florida

Missouri

Montana

Ohio

Virginia

and, McCain's make-it-or-break-it state of Pennsylvania

None of them paint a pretty portrait for McCain. Most clearly show a growing gulf. Those that don't may reflect McCain's last, best hope. But, if Google is to be believed, it's a slim one at best.

Is Google showing us the wisdom of the crowd this election? Just 11 more days to find out.

Comments

[saumi]

palin and mccain may not poll hgih because many of there supporters are not exactly the googling type. If they did google they wouldn't repeatedly assume that the O is an arab, muslim etc etc. Not googling also explains the views of the earth being 6000 years old and thet the flintstones like scenario actually happened.

[Daniel Sinker - Huffpost Blogger]

For those wondering if this is all hokum, and that if you tossed Palin into the search results she'd show up higher, I have an update at the end of my latest blog post.

[dlo2]

After watching the movie "W", I realized that as the saying goes, "you can fool some of the people some of the time, you can't fool the people all the time" and it's time for US voters to stop the farce in this campaign by McCain/Palen who will continue W's trajectory and the tragic continued bankruptcy of this poor country and generations to come. Wake up, Republicans...now you have to forget your fears of Obama and recognize that this man is an opportunity that is absolutely blessed for America. Not only is he brilliant but he owns his own soul and he is a good man in all ways. And he is NOT left leaning...he is a CENTRIST in every way. He will bring polarized groups together to work collaboratively for the good of this country, for us, for our progeny and to begin to heal the fractured international alliance which will assure our survival in a cacaphonic world of warring tribes, self-interests, and human meanness. It is time for peace in this country to begin within..within ourselves, our communities, and our fellow Americans.
Most of all, vote Obama/Biden for a renaissance of the America we once knew. We need the Dark Ages now to be over and to orchestrate this feat, we need to send the Bush, Rove, Cheney, Rumsfield, McCain, Palen tribe into history forever and ever.

[sirgorpster]

The trouble is my guess is if you including PALIN you would find she was a big hit but would not match her "popularity" number or correlate with McCain.
This data probably correlates higher with the polls that track "intense feelings" either pro or against.

Can you post an update with Palin and with the dislike-ilke intensity data?

[judiNJ]

Do NOT feed the Trolls! If you feed them, they come back. Just ignore them and do not respond.

[MrCommonSense]

Perhaps the reason slightly more people Google information on Obama is that they are trying to discover just who he really is and hopefully they will use that information to make a better informed vote this November 4th. That is if they an decipher the facts from all the exagerations and misinformation out there about both candidates. It really can be a mental challenge.

[littlepitcher]

Polling samples on Fox et nauseating cetera are always under 1000 people. As a onetime market research surveyor, I am aware that a small sample, drawn from a custom-selected polling area (college town, mid-income white suburbia, ghetto) skews polling results any way the contractor desires.
These polls may well be custom-designed by the Fox and NBC crowd to terrify elderly and racist occasional or registered non-voters in order to herd them to the polls. Do not make the mistake of believing that news channels are unbiased, run unbiased polls, or have anyone's best interests at heart except their own.

[skytrader]

i betcha, that not half of the mccain/palin crowd knows how to spell the word internet, and another 20% surely dont know how to use a search engine, so, double if not triple up the mccain google numbers and u got real numbers.

democrats need to vote!

this race is not over yet!

[RobinSeattle]

Again, everyone must vote for the mandate. The bigger the popular vote disparity for us, the bigger our mandate and the freer hand we will have to put this country on the right track. So no matter how big Obama is winning in your state or McCain is winning in others, we need ALL Obama fans to turn out for the mandate.

MANDATE! MANDATE! MANDATE!

Those of you in Kansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma, which will be red states in November, can still help Obama bigtime. So please, VOTE! We need every single one for the MANDATE!

[lmrgreen]

And the larger the voter turnout the harder it will be for Rove and his gang to steal votes! WE must not get complacent - every single vote is important and anyone thinking of sitting it out because it's "in the bag" and they don't want to bother standing in line for five hours - think again! A mandate requires everybody's participation!

[paixa3]

Wise people, I hope, will ignore:

Pundits
Polls
Talking Heads

[rnadna]

Now here's a smart man! Spent all of 3 seconds writing the above!

While the writer of the article must of spent days, if not weeks!

Bet you the 3 second wonder is a rupublican and the latter is a democrat!

That's because Repubs have a lot of hot air and like to pontificate accordingly!!

[lauriemann]

People who are more likely to vote for McCain/Palin are less likely to be using the Internet in the first place. So, it's like the polling problem - many of us who are voting for Obama/Biden don't have land lines anymore. While we can avoid the ludicrous Republican robo-calls, we also can't be polled. Still, it will be interesting to see if GoogleTrends match the election results.

VOTE!

Another middle-aged white woman for Obama/Biden

[betward]

Your polling index may very well be used in the future by the mainline pollers who are having trouble getting people to answer poll questions posed in the old way. And those poll questions can be biased in their presentation and the demographic manipulated. So when you are looking for wherre peopl's interests are taking them as your poll seems to do you may be getting a more relaible statistic.

[rebelrebel]

I have to wonder: why do they even bother with national polls? The popular vote does not elect the President; the electoral college does that. So the only polls that mean anything are the state-by-state polls.

After all, Al Gore got 500,000 more votes than George Bush in 2000, and who got to be President?

Ultimately, it seems best if people think the race is tightening. This will increase turnout.

[STILJON]

Polls should be 1% of the election coverage. Democrats need to show up and run up the score on this football game to a 63-35 win. The only poll showing McCain with an advantage is regarding national security and this is Obama"s to win. We can and should go for a blow out on this issue too. Obama"s foresight in 2002 that Iraq"s volatile ethnic mix would lead to a long and costly war distracting us from Al-Qaeda was a far greater example of comprehensive understanding then mcCain who thought it would be "easy" and involve no house to house fighting. Obama has been calling for a timeline for withdrawal that now matches the thoughts of military experts and Iraqi leaders. McCain still won"t offer a timeline for withdrawal. The sooner we responsibly withdraw from Iraq the sooner we can relieve the strain on our military and begin to strengthen our state of military readiness for any future threat. In 2007 when McCain was insisting Iraq was the central front on terrorism Obama was saying we need to focus more on Afghanistan. The latest assessment from the NIE due out after the election clearly demonstrates that Afghanistan is facing a serious "downward spiral" making it the central front in the war on terror. The knockout punch is the leadership Obama shows during the current international incident facing the world economy. His intelligent judgment and steady temperament is exactly the leadership qualities we need in a commander-in-chief.

[PAMPAS]

It is par for the course that a Democrat has the support of enough people to raise outstanding amounts of money, and someone has the gall to label it "obscene." I did not hear the same accusatory tone when the Republicans were raising heretofore unimaginable amounts of campaign contributions.

No one is holding a gun to a contributors head. Contributions are made if the person chooses to make them. It is evident that your fear is Obama is so appealing to contributors, and John McCain is not, that McCain doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of making headway. You are probably right.
But that is the beauty of a privately financed campaign.

If you think that there is a chance that the candidate who raises the most contributions is more beholden to special interests, you might want to re-examine your supposition. If anyone is more beholden, it is the person who is desperate for cash and is willing to sell his soul to the highest
bidder. I think McCain, if he were to win, would be a monkey on a leash waiting for the pull of his masters.