Kim Jong Il's decision to initiate a military attack against South Korea's Yeonpyeong island on November 23rd is an indication of his ongoing desperation and power. When put in context with the succession plan currently underway in North Korea, Kim Jong Il is betting that he will be able to continue his well established pattern of brinksmanship with South Korea and the West while at the same time preserving his legacy among his people and providing a reminder to his son -- Kim Jong-Un -- of what is expected of him as heir apparent.
Historically, the North Korean leader has done well by pushing the envelope and testing the limits of South Korean and western patience. Where else in the world would the sinking of a military vessel in a developed country (as was the case in March of this year with the sinking of South Korea's ship, the Cheonan) and a guilty verdict from an official international inquiry leave the aggressor completely unpunished? Even with the current example of aggression, Mr. Kim has achieved his undoubted objective of ruffling western feathers, causing shudders in global stock markets, and reasserting his authority at home.
The revelation this week that North Korea has constructed a new uranium enrichment facility -- in direct violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1874 and the six party agreement reached in 2005 -- is further evidence that Mr. Kim will make agreements without necessarily having the intention of abiding by them. This presents South Korea and the West with an even more difficult dilemma: if an agreement were to be reached with North Korea that fully addressed the West's concerns about nuclear proliferation, could the western alliance have any reasonable degree of confidence that it will be adhered to in the long term? The answer has to be no.
On the question of China's current and future role in six party talks, China has demonstrated repeatedly that its long-term interest rests with itself and North Korea, and it remains the North's closest ally. Given that neither China nor North Korea's long-term interests are likely to change, it would be unreasonable to assume that either China or North Korea will ever have any other interests than their own at heart, which makes the notion of achieving a lasting and meaningful peace on the Korean peninsula difficult to imagine. To believe that anything else is achievable, given history, is to believe in the tooth fairy. The divided Korean peninsula will remain one of the world's most pressing long-term geostrategic issues.
A realist would suggest that the war that has never ended (on paper) between the South and North will one day need to be ended by military means. This can only be avoided, in due course, if China can be convinced that its long-term interest does not lay solely with North Korea, and the North comes to realize that its economy cannot succeed in isolation. China and South Korea both fear the implosion of the North's economy -- which is closer at hand today than perhaps ever before - and surely agree that their own long-term interests lay in the South's eventual unification with the North.
Mr. Kim's willingness to continue to thumb his nose at the international community and ramp up his belligerent stance against the South implies he is serious about further enhancing his nuclear capability. Even assuming deeper military engagement can be avoided between the North and South for the time being, and Kim Jong-Un eventually becomes the North's leader, a heightened state of military alert is likely to remain a permanent fixture on the Korean peninsula. There is little reason to believe that Son of Kim III will be any different than his father or grandfather with respect to how he runs the country or how he deals with the outside world.
The real challenge now will be for South Korea to avoid its own form of brinksmanship, given that military tensions are at a post-war high. Since the sinking of the Cheonan, President Lee has been under intense pressure to respond militarily to any future provocation by the North. He has stated publically that he will respond with maximum force, should that occur. Mr. Lee would be wise, given his neighbor's temperament, to avoid any actions that may be perceived by Mr. Kim as provocative. Holding military exercises on Yeonpyeong Island, just 12 kilometers from North Korea, was certainly ill advised. Hopefully, Mr. Lee will have the presence of mind not to accept Mr. Kim's invitation to a duel.
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North Korea - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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On 23 September 1946 an 8,000-strong railroad worker strike began in Pusan. Civil disorder spread throughout the country in what became known as the Autumn uprising. On 1 October 1946, Korean police killed three students in the Daegu Uprising; protesters counter-attacked, killing 38 policemen. On 3 October, some 10,000 people attacked the Yeongcheon police station, killing three policemen and injuring some 40 more; elsewhere, some 20 landlords and pro-Japanese South Korean officials were killed.[60] The USAMGIK declared martial law.
The right-wing Representative Democratic Council, led by nationalist Syngman Rhee, opposed the Soviet–American trusteeship of Korea, arguing that after 35 years (1910–45) of Japanese colonial rule most Koreans opposed another foreign occupation. The USAMGIK decided to forego the five year trusteeship agreed upon in Moscow, given the 31 March 1948 United Nations election deadline to achieve an anti-communist civil government in the US Korean Zone of Occupation.
On 3 April what began as a demonstration commemorating Korean resistance to Japanese rule ended with the Jeju massacre of as many as 60,000 citizens by South Korean soldiers.[64]
On 10 May, South Korea convoked their first national general elections that the Soviets first opposed, then boycotted, insisting that the US honor the trusteeship agreed to at the Moscow Conference
You bit the hook. I am 64 and got the same education that is force fed propaganda about the Civil War and WWII, etc too.
Yes, the slaves were given emancipation proclamation after the war. A significant statement to the world evolution. But the war had much more to do with the economic issues of cheap labor in the textile industry with great profits for the southern Plantations.
The price of cotton for the northern states manufacturing that paid a reasonable (relative) wage could not make the profits of the South. Of course, Britain and France were involved as they are today.
This should sound familiar. See the SOUTH HAS RISEN today. As Hilary said during the election they are running this country like a Plantation. So now we are back to the 1800's becoming world slavery called workers today for the Ownership Society of the entire GLOBE
DW
The trouble is, when you ain't got nothin', you ain't got nothin' to lose...
DW
Every country will defend it national interest unless some one wants to involve and make it Korea II. For now its just between Korean.
I think it is important for South Korea to keep a level-head during this unpleasant situation. This was an act to cement the authority of Kim Jungs heir, and it will blow over if they let it. It would be reckless of them to attack just because they are indignant. They should bear in mind the US's present military over-extension as well.
DW
On 23 September 1946 an 8,000-strong railroad worker strike began in Pusan. Civil disorder spread throughout the country in what became known as the Autumn uprising. On 1 October 1946, Korean police killed three students in the Daegu Uprising; protesters counter-attacked, killing 38 policemen. On 3 October, some 10,000 people attacked the Yeongcheon police station, killing three policemen and injuring some 40 more; elsewhere, some 20 landlords and pro-Japanese South Korean officials were killed.[60] The USAMGIK declared martial law.
The right-wing Representative Democratic Council, led by nationalist Syngman Rhee, opposed the Soviet–American trusteeship of Korea, arguing that after 35 years (1910–45) of Japanese colonial rule most Koreans opposed another foreign occupation. The USAMGIK decided to forego the five year trusteeship agreed upon in Moscow, given the 31 March 1948 United Nations election deadline to achieve an anti-communist civil government in the US Korean Zone of Occupation.
On 3 April what began as a demonstration commemorating Korean resistance to Japanese rule ended with the Jeju massacre of as many as 60,000 citizens by South Korean soldiers.[64]
On 10 May, South Korea convoked their first national general elections that the Soviets first opposed, then boycotted, insisting that the US honor the trusteeship agreed to at the Moscow Conference
All major trading partner in the world will loose. The first Korean war broke out is because China have warned the US and not to get too close to it border and US thinking is just like your thinking now.
You can't solve everything with gun but you can solve many problem with money.
The first Korean war broke out because Truman was applying his containment theory to prevent communism from taking over the world, as many in believed it was poised to do back in the day. China entered the conflict afterward because we got too close to their border, but the situation is very different today. No one thinks that the US or any other country wants to invade China, and they aren't as insecure as they once were about the US being near their border.
Why would you want to side with a loser when you're already winning the bigger war of economics?
For now its just the Korean.
The South can't strike that hard, and not without US's full support, which they won't have. The North is not without defense either. They don't fight only with sticks and stones...