Since Israel first built its Dimona nuclear facility in the late 1950s it has been harshly criticized from a variety of quarters for its lack of transparency and candor regarding its nuclear capabilities. Significant international pressure has been applied on Israel over several decades to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and disclose the exact nature of its nuclear capabilities. Israel's failure to do so has been the result of a shrewd cost/benefit analysis, and common knowledge of its capability has proven to be a useful means of promoting a balance of power in the Middle East. Given the political upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa this year, can this balance of power be maintained, and is Israel's nuclear ambiguity likely to help or hurt Israel in the long-term?
Israeli ambiguity has undoubtedly helped deter existential attacks, and not joining the NPT has enabled Israel to maintain its sovereignty with respect the use of its nuclear arsenal. Israel's low profile on the subject has also been central to enabling it to avoid becoming the subject of U.S. laws banning providing funding for states developing nuclear weapons, as has been the case with Pakistan for example. Doing so has proven lucrative: From 1976 to 2004, Israel was the largest recipient of U.S. foreign assistance, and since 1985 the U.S. has provided more than $3 billion per year in grants to Israel.
But there are a number of ways nuclear ambiguity has hurt Israel. It has complicated Israel's diplomatic ties and has at times strained Israel's bilateral relationship with the U.S. Israel's secrecy has similarly complicated the Middle East peace process and contributed to an atmosphere of distrust among the parties. Although Israel believes concealment of its program has been central to preventing Arab countries from developing nuclear weapons, acknowledging its nuclear arsenal could have helped deter Iran and other states in the region from wanting to become nuclear states.
Given the political upheaval in the region this year, it is only natural to wonder whether Israel's decades-old policy of nuclear ambiguity is likely to benefit Israel in the longer-term. From the perspective of prolonging the balance of power that still exists, maintaining the ambiguity will probably serve Israel well. As long as Israel's neighbors and enemies presume Israel has a substantial nuclear capability, Israel should remain secure from existential attack, but only until other regional powers themselves go nuclear. Then the calculus may change, and become more an issue of demonstrating that Israel's nuclear arsenal is larger than that of any other regional power. At that time, Israel will presumably have no choice but to formally declare its capability.
Israel has been anything but ambiguous more generally about defending itself and its interests, and this will surely not change any time soon. At a time when Israel is feeling surrounded - with dramatic political change either having occurred or in the process of occurring in so many states in the region - anything it can do to inject stability and a sense of security into the arena will of course be in its own interest. The problem is, there is very little Israel can do. It is hostage, as is the rest of the region and the world, to merely witnessing the outcome of events in Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. As NATO has experienced firsthand in Libya, it is difficult and even unrealistic to presume to be able to influence the outcome of such deep-seated political change.
Israel has been a net beneficiary of its policy of nuclear ambiguity, but whether Israel will be able to maintain a balance between its security and foreign policy objectives, and the ideals of transparency in a democratic society and a globalized world, remains to be seen. One thing is for certain - Israel cannot afford, and has no intention, of either admitting its capability or changing its geostrategic posture until and unless lasting peace is reached with the Palestinians and all of its neighbors. For that reason, it must be expected that Israel, and the world, will be waiting quite some time for Israel to either clarify its status or adhere to the NPT. At this juncture it is hard to imagine a scenario in which any disadvantages of maintaining nuclear ambiguity will outweigh the benefits of keeping it in place.
Daniel Wagner is managing director of Country Risk Solutions, a political risk consulting firm based in Connecticut, USA. He is also senior advisor to the PRS Group. Ruth Sigalus is a research analyst with CRS.
Follow Daniel Wagner on Twitter: www.twitter.com/countryriskmgmt
I add that this 21st of April marks the 7th year since Israel's Nuclear Whistle Blower-Mordechai Vanunu, emerged from 18 years in a windowless tomb sized cell for telling the world and providing the photos to prove that Israel had manufactured upwards of 200 nuclear warheads by 1986!
Vanunu told me, “Many journalists come here to the American Colony, from CNN and NY Times. They all want to cover my story, but their EDITORS say no...CNN wants to interview me; but they say they can't do it because they don't want problems with the Israeli censor. BBC is doing the same thing.
"Sixty Minutes from the United States from the beginning they wanted to do a program, but because of the censor situation they decide not to do it. Also big media from Germany, France, Italy, Japan. None of them wants problems with the Israelis."
And that was when I became a muckraker!
Eileen Fleming, A Citizen of Conscience for House of Representatives
Founder of WeAreWideAwake.org
Staff Member of Salem-news.com
A Feature Correspondent for Arabisto.com
Producer "30 Minutes with Vanunu" and "13 Minutes with Vanunu"
Author of "Keep Hope Alive" and "Memoirs of a Nice Irish American 'Girl's' Life in Occupied Territory" and "BEYOND NUCLEAR: Mordechai Vanunu's FREEDOM of SPEECH Trial and My Life as a Muckraker: 2005-2010"
http://www.wearewideawake.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=21&Itemid=26
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How do you know? Were is the fuel for the Dimona reactor comming from?
How?
This makes no sense. Iran began their nuclear power program while the Shah was in power. Israel nukes had no affect and no, Iran is not producing nukes.
Huh????
No, the problem is Israel wants to hold onto the occupied territory even at the cost of eternal war with it's neighbors. It could end the existential threat to the Israeli State in an afternoon if it would make peace on that basis.
I think all countries should build nukes.
libya gave up its nuke program and the West plotted to invade them at first opportunity.........nukes keep you safe from invasion.
How so? You can't just make a comment like that and not explain how you think it would happen.
What would Arab states or PLO/ Hamas /Hezbollah do to the Jews if they would have won, and what “human rights “Jewish population would experience if Arab forces would prevail? No need of strong Imagination – enough to check what Iraqi Saddam did to Kurds and Shiats, Taliban did in Afghanistan, Sudanese did to Black Muslims in Darfur and the list is long…
Thank God Jewish State is strong enough to win in each war, still preserve humanistic democracy and maintain the highest among Western Armies Standards of minimizing civil casualties in areas where terrorist use civil population as human shields.
Important comment on the usual repetitions of the claim that Israel is the largest beneficiary of US foreign assistance – insinuating that because of some “non patriotic motives” US Administrations give Israel “something for nothing”
Serious analysis show that US loans and the grants to Israel are benefitting US industry and economy not less that it benefits Israeli economy.
USA loans and Grants are given against buying US Products and create long term cooperation with significant orders for spare parts and maintenance and secondary purchases from USA.
It is mistake to compare the above assistance to the money given to some countries that are not using it same way Israel does.
Israel has lost wars and the only consequence was a blow to Israel's pride and sense of superiority.
Israel has not won a war since 1967. In 1973, Israel were saved by a massive airlift from Nixon. In 2000 and 2006, they were beten back by Hebollah. Cast Lead was a turkey shoot, not a war.
>> Serious analysis show that US loans and the grants to Israel are benefitting US industry and economy not less that it benefits Israeli economy.
False. There is no serious anamysis that supports that claim, only partisam capaign pieces from law makes in Washington.
USA loans and Grants are used to finance the occuaption, the settlements, edcuationa nd helth programs in Israel while Americans go without. Trade agreements with Israel are so heavily biaed in favour of Israel that US industries have folded becaseu of unfair competition from Israel.
The "special relationship" between Israel and its (formerly) rich Uncle Sam is analogous to that of a sympathetic parole/welfare case officer, who advocates on behalf of an incorrigible recidivist and malingerer.
Yet I doubt the US and the international community would approve if S. Korea started building nukes. Why the double standard? Why does Israel get a free pass?
Because South Korea is a signatory to the NPT and Israel is not. Free will and soveriegnty have to count for something, otherwise, why bother with borders, states and governments at all.
The point is an "existential threat" is not a reason enough for there to be such bias.
The US has a large presence in South Korea, and nuclear capable US Navy shps and never far away.
A frightening status quo that allows a tiny state of just 7m people (1% of the global population) to have amassed a nuclear weapons arsenal sufficient to wipe out half the world. And Daniel Wagner believes that is probably a good thing! HELLO! Has logic and reason gone on extended leave?
Israel is estimated to have secretly built over 400 nuclear warheads, outside the NPT and IAEA, and that is good for America? Good for the EU? Good for the Middle East? Good for peace? Good for the Palestinians? HELLO! IS ANYONE THERE?
You are aware, I suppose, that the Israeli government is a right-wing, unstable coalition that ignores international conventions and the authority of the UN Security Council? I assume that you know that Israel's land grab in the West Bank and its settlements there are illegal according to the United Nations, as also is its endeavour to make Jerusalem its capital although it is designated by the UN as an international city?
The problem is that, although like me, you are Jewish, but, unlike me, you believe that Israel can make her own rules and treat the UN and other international institutions with contempt.
THAT IS NOT DEMOCRACY and that makes us very different, indeed.
Ah, more pro-palestinian revisionist history.
1950's - Israel starts it's nuclear program and developing nuclear weapons program.
According to you, at this point, AIPAC and Likud develop the stratagem of ambiguity.
1963 - AIPAC is formed
1973 - Likud is formed
So by your theory, members of AIPAC and Likud, went back in time to the 1950s to develop the ambiguity stratagem.
Therefore, Israel has time travel technology.
In every major engagement since 1948, Israel has soundly defeated every combination of its neighbors with TRADITIONAL weapons and regardless of who initiated hostilities. There has never been a credible "existational attack" or a threat thereof against Israel.
And what does "ambiquious" mean?
The toxicity of phosphorus is also recorded in a report by New York medical staff: 4
‘Oral ingestion of white phosphorus in humans has been demonstrated to result in pathologic changes to the liver and kidneys. The ingestion of a small quantity of white phosphorus can cause gastrointestinal complaints such as nausea, abdominal cramps, and vomiting. Individuals with a history of oral ingestion have been noted to pass phosphorus-laden stool ("smoking stool syndrome"). The accepted lethal dose is 1 mg/kg, although the ingestion of as little as 15 mg has resulted in death.'
Although an Israeli army spokesman told CNN on 7 January 2009 , “I can tell you with certainty that white phosphorus is absolutely not being used.” the chemical had been used by Israeli forces since the beginning of the war."
http://www.countercurrents.org/cook150411.htm
I reviewed a study that found prolonged exposure to missle attacks has been shown to be a real obstacle to educational development. So, Hamas is hurting its own citizens and Israeli citizens.
"rael 's use of white phosphorus and other toxic metals, and its suspected use of depleted uranium, in the war against the people of the Gaza Strip has put the whole of the Strip's population and its environment – air, soil, groundwater and possibly seawater – at risk of serious long-term injury and contamination. "
"rael 's use of white phosphorus and other toxic metals, and its suspected use of depleted uranium, in the war against the people of the Gaza Strip has put the whole of the Strip's population and its environment – air, soil, groundwater and possibly seawater – at risk of serious long-term injury and contamination. "
They have used nuclear weapons on Gaza, but, you think they don't have nuclear weapons?
But do we really understand the consequences of these evil weapons that are manufactured in the US and used by all NATO and Israeli forces.
We must fully understand that in all of the above theatres of war the uranium contamination has not only affected their own NATO/IDF military forces but also the innocent civilians in the respective target areas and adjacent countries (including Israel itself). It is the indiscriminate nature of these weapons and the fact that their associated contamination has the ability to travel vast distances that surely labels them as the most horrific evil act against mankind.
The terrible consequences of Depleted Uranium were made available to the media by a Dr. Leonard Dietz who had worked for the Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory for 28 years. He was an experimental research physicist in mass spectrometry and was responsible for developing advanced mass spectrometer instrumentation and new analytical techniques for isotope ratio analysis of uranium and plutonium.
After the 1991 Persian Gulf War Dr Dietz provided physics support on airborne uranium particles from depleted uranium munitions to Congress, and to environmentalists and researchers who were investigating the spread and health risks of these radioactive particles. He produced an extremely interesting report titled "Contamination of Persian Gulf War Veterans
You need to work on your fork comparison.
I understand that articles like this are simple pretexts to give Israel-haters the needed platform for their usual (and, frankly, rather boring) antics. Yawwwwn!