Undemocratic Arab Regimes Afraid of Obama's Change

It seems like an appropriate enough cartoon. The depiction of the president elect Barack Obama with the US flag behind him and the bubble quoting Obama as saying the change has come to Washington. Looking up to the Obama depiction was an excited Egyptian woman congratulating the African American senator, reminding him not to forget that people around the world have been hoping and praying for his success. This was followed by the Arabic phrase: 'uqbal inna meaning may the same [change] happen to us.

According to the opposition weekly Sawt al Umma, the cartoon which appeared in al Ahram the leading government controlled Egyptian daily, caused a sense of an emergency among the senior Egyptian leadership. The weekly stated that 150,000 copies of the paper's first edition were quickly removed from the streets and destroyed and the 'troublesome' phrase disappeared from future prints that day. The before and after cartoon depiction appeared in Sawt al Umma. and other publications. http://www.shobiklobik.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=172011

This is certainly not the first time that a political cartoon has caused powers in our region to be worried about losing their powers. But the paranoia of the Mubarak regime is a reflection of the concern by many Arab autocrats about the Obama euphoria empowering those calling for change. Obama's victory on the change mantra was not lost to people around the world yearning for political reform.

Jordan's leading blogger Mohammad Omar (www.mohomar.com) says that the victory of the son of a Kenyan immigrant gives minorities, immigrants and unrepresented groups hope. Imagine a Palestinian who was born in Jordan fifty or sixty years ago and has tried very hard to be part of the political scene looking at the son of an immigrant in America being elected to the top executive position. The winds of hope don't stop at the American shores, Omar insists.

The victory of the change candidate was especially noticed by Arab reformers who have been paying a price for daring to question the political status quo. The case of one such political reformer, who is unjustly imprisoned, is Ayman Nour, an Egyptian constitutional lawyer and elected representative whose supporters insist has been suffering in jail for his political ambitions which included his challenge to the seemingly lifelong president of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak. Nour, who is serving a five-year prison term on what his defenders say are trumped-up charges, namely, the forgery of signatures among the thousands submitted when he ran for president. Ironically Egyptian law only requires fifty signatures. Nour, a charismatic secular leader, came in second to Mubarak and far ahead of many well-known opposition figures.

After being officially nominated by the democratic party, Nour wrote to Barack Obama appealing for his help. " The writer of these lines is a human being, about your age, who was -- and still is -- dreaming like you of change and reform in his country. However, in our countries legitimate dreams turn into horrifying nightmares!!" (http://www.freeaymannour.org/call.htm)

Last week, and after Obama's stunning victory, Nour's supporters were trying to hold a public meeting of their party in Nour's law office when they were attacked by unknown individuals and the law offices were torched. The local police and fire fighters were conspicuously slow in arriving.

The Egyptian government's overreaction is a sign of the concern that moderate pro-US Arab regimes fear as a result of the US elections and the de-escalation of the so called War on Terror. As long as ideological Washington was engulfed in this war, repression of genuine democratic activities was ignored. Arab leaders used their special alliance with the Bush Administration in the war on Islamic fundamentalists to act against all opponents including secular opposition like that of Ayman Nour.

Some of Nour's friends have been assuring his wife and family to be patient just until Obama takes over. They are encouraging them that the Egyptian reformer's days in prison and isolation are numbered. This sense of optimism is felt throughout the Middle East and North Africa.

Shortly after initiating the ill-conceived war on Iraq, the Bush Administration, led by its neocon officials, began a push for democracy in the larger Arab world. This pro reform and democracy initiative didn't receive wide support, including from Arab reformers and intellectuals. They repeated the story of the birds needing to focus on the hunters fingers and not his tears. Bush's wars, his approval of torture in Guantanemo and spying within America emptied the pro-reform rhetoric from its value.

Some of the same skeptics are now optimistic. After seeing America at its best, there is a renewed sense of confidence in American-style democracy throughout the world. However, this growing confidence about the possibility of political reform can turn into a disaster if change does in fact stay limited to the American shores. If young reformers in the Arab region are again crushed after the change candidate takes power in Washington, their hopes for genuine reform in the Arab world will be set back for years, once again.

Daoud Kuttab is an award winning Palestinian journalist. He is the general manager of Community Media Network, a media NGO registered in Jordan and Palestine. Daoud's email is [e-mail]

Follow Daoud Kuttab on Twitter: www.twitter.com/daoudkuttab

Comments

[ambika]

While it seems that the world is expecting a lot out of President elect Obama, the notion of change and hope is very powerful. For years the Egyptian people have been hoping for a new direction in governance and the elections in America just might bring about that new direction. Yet it is important to remember that Mr Obama cannot actually free Ayman Noor or create a government change in Egypt, it will have to be up to the people to react. What is possible is that if the people can create enough fevor in their country, which will inturn force other stakeholders such as lobbyists to take notice and place pressure on Mr Obama then he can inturn lean on the Egyptian Government. Young Arab reformists should embrace this new opportunity if change is to happen in their region as well.

[chaos4700]

Not surprisingly, as a prime example of a democracy under seige from within, Egypt is the second-place recipient of US military aid, after Israel.It will be nice if the US can displace its hitherto corrupting influence in fledgling or beseiged democracies with one of genuine reform. Real democracy and freedom benefits everyone, even us, when it spreads in other countries.

[OrganOfThought]

Oh what a dream. How much hope does it take for a people (or peoples) to rise up against their criminal, thieving, murderous, oppressors?

The truth is that oppressors are afraid of their people (obviously). That is why they are brutal. What will it take for enough people to say that their time is now? For unity in action to replace fear?

Who wants to see dominoes fall?

[sposton]

Contrary to what people think, the masses of people hardly ever rise up in rebellion on their own. It is the upper middle classes and kids of the elites that usually rise to leadership of uprisings and revolutions (peaceful or otherwise). Unfortunately, the oppressive regimes also know how to manipulate these potential discontents with combination or terror (stick) and lack of terror (carrot). That is why Egypt imprisons prominent journalists, lawyers and such. It sends a clear signal to others not to question the predominant order.

America is a hostage of regimes like Egypt's because of the nature of America's engagement in the world. If America ceases to be an empire it would speak much more clearly and powerfully when it advocates democracy around the world. Empire has a different calculus, where a particular regime's stability usually overrides any democratic ideals.

It is nice to see that Obama has inspired people around the world. I would caution against investing much hope in Obama because you are likely to be disappointed. He's a welcome change from Bush's miserable rule but he is still a president of an Empire with all of its ramifications.

[OrganOfThought]

Iran 1979

The current government of Iran is horrifyingly violent, corrupt, and murderous. They are truly evil. But they were not what immediately replaced the Shah of Iran when he was overthrown.

Initially, the Iranian revolution was a democratic one. All estimates and statistics show that over 85% of the population supported overthrowing the oppressive regime of the Shah. Millions and millions of people marched all over and faced bullets (many died). They were not part of any selective group. Old people and children marched. Religious and secular people marched. Rich and poor marched. Educated and uneducated people marched.

A couple of years later is when people became complacent and the current fanatics took over. But that is another argument.

I am afraid there is no way we are going to agree, because you believe America is a hostage of these regimes. I believe that all of these regimes are puppets of American power (Federal or Corporate), just like the Shah of Iran was and the Saudi royal family is.