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Dar Williams

Dar Williams

Posted: February 16, 2011 09:16 AM

Why We Can Have One Million Electric Cars on the Road by 2015


When General Motors' EV1 rolled out in 1996, there was no infrastructure for it, gas was about ten cents a gallon, and cars were turning into military vehicles. And I still wanted one. But then it was gone.

Flash forward to President Obama saying we'll have a million electric cars on the road by 2015. Pundits expressed immediate doubts about this number, but today we have two big reasons to believe we can get there.

First, we have to look beyond the options we have today. They're expensive, and charging stations are more a novelty than a fixture.

Sadly, if the future were left to Detroit, I too would call the electric car a heartbreaking but undeniable fad. Detroit reminds me of a guy who trashes therapy, makes fun of people in therapy, and then goes to see a therapist when his entire life falls apart. It turns out therapy's not so bad, but it's nothing he'll brag about on Superbowl Sunday, which had six car advertisers (not all domestic) and not one mention of plugging in.

And the primping, pumped-up free market would rather Detroit guy block his symptoms than really face his issues, so no help there with a longterm solution.

In other countries, however...well, it's way different. Every car company is working on an electric car. Volvo's R&D means we'll see a safe car with fast-warming seats. Volkswagen wants to be an EV leader, which means we'll have innovation with a hypnotic, persuasive soundtrack. And perhaps a flower in a symbolic tailpipe.

And then, worst of all, there's Hyundai. Worst for us, because Hyundai will take an electric car and make it as normal and inexpensive as that Ford sedan you scrape up to afford after college. With a third the fuel costs.

And what about those charging stations? Who will cover that? For starters, hotels, colleges, and Starbucks. Also, just a thought -- Whole Foods can offer free grid-tied solar charging stations to lure back the thousands of people who boycotted them after John Mackey wrote that health care editorial in the Wall Street Journal.

So that's the car and the charger. They will change, with or without Michigan.

And what about us? Will we change? The truth is, we already have. That's the second reason this EV revolution will take.

The United States has an impressive yellow brick road on which to roll out the electric car: the Main Streets of its small cities.

I'm not talking about big cities like New York, where they're already foregoing cars or driving little things that look like children's sneakers.

In smaller cities, people might not want a car that looks like a Sketcher, but they still drive only thirty miles a day.

In the early nineties, these cities reminded me of carefully hollowed out Easter eggs we made as kids. It was as if someone had plinked a small hole at either end of Main Street and blown the contents out. I saw boarded up windows, dusty pawn shops and confused people shopping at big box stores before the term "big box" had even been coined.

By the late nineties, I saw a full-tilt small urban turnaround. Main Streets from Rockland, Maine to Oakland, California revived old theaters with music, dance and classic movies, general stores came back again (with a few extra frills), and old brick buildings became exposed brick cafes. Small businesses opened upstairs from music stores. And I saw gardens, fountains, footpaths and rail trails that increased daily multi-generational traffic. Some pedestrian boulevards have been gentrified, pure and simple, but generally, these walking (and walker)-friendly city streets were and are a populist renaissance.

So we've got the car, the charger, the demographic, and now the math to show why this matters so much:

According to the National Renewable Energy Lab, if we plugged in during off-peak hours to cover our daily commutes (30-40 miles), over 70% of our energy needs would be met without building another power plant.

Yes, that means an abrupt cut-off of oil and emissions with 70% of the energy supply already spoken for. Overgeneralization? I'm sure. But if it were only half true, it would still be a revolution.

This is an environmental game changer, and this time it's not going away. Of course I'm hoping that Detroit can release its bottled emotions, feel its feelings, write in a journal, and create the world's leading EVs and hybrid EVs with just a little nudge from the world's competition, but the new car is coming no matter what. Meanwhile, this country's cities are growing and greening from the inside out, and I hope they'll see their farmers market, local coffee glow in the mirror and know it's time for a plug-in car.

 
 
 
 
 
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04:30 PM on 02/17/2011
Most Americans have never experienced driving an electric car and there is a lot of misinformation out there, mainly that electric cars are dirty if they are powered by coal, which simple is false. Secondly, most small businesses; grocery stores, movie theaters, restaurants, hotels, etc can afford the $2-4 thousand cost of install a charging station, which can bring in extra revenue buy 1) attracting new customers, and 2) selling people electricity. Finally, there is the fact that electric cars have virtually no maintenance cost and are projected to hold their value better then gas cars.
02:27 AM on 02/19/2011
You're right...they aren't powered by coal, they're electric. BUT the power plants churning out the electricity could be....perhaps? Most of our power plants are coal powered. More electric cars spells more need for electricity. That means more coal to burn to produce more electricity. That's problem number one. Second, as a small business owner, that 2k-4k cost for a charger is NOT easily affordable for most small companies. That's senseless overhead, and has NOTHING to do with my product. Third problem is that there is just as much of a maintenance cost for electric cars as there are gas powered...not to mention a car like the Volt is priced at...oh...$37,000. All they did was swap out the internal combustion parts for other electrical parts. The top three most expensive repairs/needs for cars in the U.S. (with the exception of fuel and body work due to accidents) is tires, transmission, and electrical elements...all of which current electric cars have. I'm sorry, but the answer to a cleaner world isn't electric cars. This is just another ploy to make the green people feel better about themselves while still making a buck. If you want to get sucked into this crap, be my guest...but it won't solve anything.
USBrit
And GOP Jesus said, I am come to help the rich.
01:27 PM on 02/23/2011
And the power plants can also be fueled by other sources, or like my greenhouse use solar panels to provide electricity to charge batteries. Coal and fossil fuels are not the only sources of electricity.
11:42 AM on 02/19/2011
Hi Frank,

Your right about the coal power plants, but unlike a gas car which gets dirtier over time, an electric car is the only vehicle that gets cleaner as we move towards more renewable energy. In regards to your comment about maintenance transmissions usually outlast the car, the main costs are oil changes and services for the engine (about 75%). Your correct that the Volt is expensive but the Nissan Leaf cost about $12,00 less and in California there are substantial rebates available, making the Leaf competitive with a Toyota Prius.
03:21 PM on 02/17/2011
If you are going to ask us to read your articles, please ask your bloggers to try to make sense.
It is difficult to read through all their mistakes. Fine products of public education I guess.
10 cents a gallon gas in 1996, how'd I miss that?
The muddled thoughts are hardly worth the effort to work through the mistakes.
Governor in Fl. put kibash on high speed rail boondoggle from Tampa to Orlando. Thank you Governor Scott. Finally the debt thingy is being taken seriously.
USBrit
And GOP Jesus said, I am come to help the rich.
01:28 PM on 02/23/2011
Odd, I've ridden high speed rail in other countries and it seems to work very well. Perhaps Yanks are too fat to fit in a train nowadays.
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llabesab1234
12:48 PM on 02/17/2011
Yeah! And they'll all be plugged into that coal spewing power grid. That is if China doesn't take away all our coal.

That's the problem with Libs. They haven't learned the lesson of "Unintended Consequences." Like, what do you do with all those Prius batteries when they die out. Bury them at Wounded Knee?"
02:21 PM on 02/17/2011
Instead of sticking your head in the sand with "unintended consequences", and pretending that the status quo is tenable, you keep looking for better alternatives.

We need to find a better way, and all options should be explored.

Kennedy put a man on the moon in ten years. How long would it take the US to find a suitable alternative to petrochemicals?

It's not going to come from the private sector, because the financial outlay is too great for any company to invest.

The solution is out there. We just need the resolve and the confidence to find it.
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allengoldchain
Freedom is never voluntarily given bythe oppressor
02:52 PM on 02/17/2011
Better yet if they are all electric what happens when the batteries die out while on the road
hroark314
The handle says it all, doesn't it?
11:43 AM on 02/17/2011
Of course we can have 1 million PEVs on the road by 2015 - if the government either mandates it or if the government subsidizes purchases enough. The question is, left to their own devices (i.e. without government coercion), would people by PEVs? The answer is no.

PEVs are not operationally cost competitive with internal combustion vehicles until you get gas prices in at least the $6-7 per gallon range. Even then, they are not as convenient as regular cars because they are slow to charge and have a relatively limited range (no car trips).

As the world's oil supply dwindles, I'm sure cars will be constructed to use less oil. I'm not sure if that means we'll have PEVs, more hybrids, or something else entirely. No matter what, I'm confident that without a massive government spending program, we won't be seeing many PEVs during the next 15 years.
USBrit
And GOP Jesus said, I am come to help the rich.
01:33 PM on 02/23/2011
"The question is, left to their own devices (i.e. without government coercion), would people by PEVs? The answer is no.".

The answer actually is yes. A friend of mine just test drove a Nissan Leaf and seems to have been quite impressed with it. In Denmark and Israel electric cars are already showing up and in Denmark the electricity is generated by wind turbines asa they have a nice supply of wind coming in off of the ocean. And the cost per mile of driving an electric is way lower than a gasoline powered vehicle.

As regards charge time, that too is changing. Please do try to keep up with current technical trends.
hroark314
The handle says it all, doesn't it?
12:50 PM on 03/18/2011
I don't check the HP often, so forgive the tardiness of my my response. Your friend's impression (he didn't even buy the car) does not constitute a significant buying trend. While I know less about the European and Israeli market for electric cars than I do about the market in the US, I am sure that electric cars are heavily subsidized in Denmark and Israel.

GM had only sold 647 Chevy Volts as of the end of January (and those cars are heavily subsidized). You may want to try to keep up with the trends as well.
11:28 AM on 02/17/2011
The EV revolution is a non-starter. The infrastructure for a nation-wide system of charging stations for 100% electric cars is estimated to cost between $250 billion to $1 trillion (uh, that's $250 billion to $1 trillion in CO2/global warming construction dollars).

Entirely unnecessary. The future is PLUG-IN HYBRIDS which are a different kettle of fish than hybrids. Plug-in hybrids already have the recharging infrastructure in place so the cost is ZERO...and that recharging infrastructure is your home and an extension cord (okay, a little bit of an exhaggeration; a special adaptor will be needed). Plug-in hybrids have the advantage of being able to be driven OVER the range of however much charge you can put on its battery overnight because once the charging limit is reached, the driver can easily, at the flick of a switch, go over to gasoline-propelled drive, something that cannot be done with 100% electric. Except for the teeny-tiny demographic (about 1%) of drivers who will go EV, no one will buy all-electric even if it's only 2 or 3 trips a year where they'll go over the charging limit. No one wants to be stranded.

Plug-In Hybrids are the future. There's a reason Warren Buffet put $250 million of his fund's money into them and NOT EV's.
USBrit
And GOP Jesus said, I am come to help the rich.
01:36 PM on 02/23/2011
EV's are not a non-starter, plug-in-hybrids are moire likely to be an intermediate step - besides which it makes perfect sense for some to drive hybrids and others EVs. The Yanks haven't even gotten as far as the Europeans in using diesel powered vehicles - the diesel Jetta gets something like 45 MPG. And drives quite well. So lots of answers, but in the long run we have to get off of oil. For proof of that just look at what is happening in the middle east right now, what happens if we suddenly get cut off from that massive flow of oil coming here every day. Talk about an economic/security problem.
10:42 AM on 02/17/2011
The fallicy here is that we can create this huge adition to our nations power grid by bolting on solar panels.

Don't get me wrong, I love the idea. But you still have to build the baseline power from traditional sources that will power those 1,000,000 cars when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing.

We need to build 200 nuclear power stations for the dream of electric cars to come alive.

This is the only solution.
USBrit
And GOP Jesus said, I am come to help the rich.
01:37 PM on 02/23/2011
In the UK, bright sunny UK, there are people putting up solar panels to power cars that are driven every day. Do that and you do not need a distribution system.
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heididh
09:34 AM on 02/17/2011
Even if you got your EV, GM would have taken it back. They were leased, never sold, and all taken back, then crushed, and the patent to the batteries that made them efficient was sold to one oil company, and then another. And I doubt an oil company would sell it to anyone who actually wants to produce something that would reduce demand on oil. Moreover, the only way for nuclear power to work is with heavy government subsidies, and radiation is so dangerous, so why not subsidies for chargers?
11:29 AM on 02/17/2011
Patents only have a life of 20 years...then it goes into public domain. So your argument makes no sense, particularly when you realize that there are only a few years left on the patents in question.
USBrit
And GOP Jesus said, I am come to help the rich.
01:38 PM on 02/23/2011
Unless someone adds a small tweak and gets a new patent.
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Ann Oid
Idiocracy was apparently a documentary
01:36 PM on 02/17/2011
And Toyota did the same thing with the Rav4 electric at that time,
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3neuticals
04:34 PM on 02/17/2011
Not exactly. You can still find Rav4 EVs on the road. You have to know how to do Google sightings to find an EV1.....and it won't be functional.
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hershobr
08:36 AM on 02/17/2011
One million electric cars won't make one single dent in the environment, not compared with the hundreds of millions of regular cars being used in China, India, not to mention the U.S. Everyone knows we need to get off oil, but we shouldn't push one technology over the other because it's politically appeasing, we should see what will actually work the best, both for the environment in the long run, and our needs in the short run.
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RogerDF
12:01 PM on 02/17/2011
I would bet that someone said the same thing about catalytic converters. 1 million cars is a start, but start we must. I like electrics because the energy can come from anything (nuclear, coal, gas, ....). If we can just get the battery tech down, we will really have something. Demand fuels innovation that fuels demand and so on.

I heard a startling statistic about catalytic converters. A new car running at highway speed produces less pollution than a pre-1979 car does parked with the engine off. Yikes.
USBrit
And GOP Jesus said, I am come to help the rich.
01:39 PM on 02/23/2011
Gee, better call up China and tell them to stop investing in all of those electric cars they are starting to build.
08:22 AM on 02/17/2011
As fuel prices rise, and they most certainly will given the current state of the world, motoring vialelectricity will become more competitive and more popular. And hopefully motoring by way of natural gas, a resource we in America have plenty of, will reach new heights too.
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mheister
Raconteur. Blog michaelheister.com
02:51 AM on 02/17/2011
I'm not fully defending Detroit here, BUT -

Chevy has the Volt. And the parent company GM has an investment in Tesla.

Ford is going to roll out a fully-electric version of the Focus in the next year or so, along with a hybrid versions. They already have a hybrid Fusion, which they can modify for plug-in easily enough.

The Big Three (well, maybe not all so big, but you get the idea) all have a significant presence in China, which is pushing hard on the green/electric front. As if the Scooters here (I'm in Fuyang) weren't dangerous enough, you have to keep an eye out for the silent electric ones now. Also, while these companies compete, they also invest in and makes deals with each other.

I'm not saying Detroit couldn't do more, or isn't doing enough. But they are doing something. And we should encourage that.
02:45 AM on 02/19/2011
China...going "green"?! HAHAHAHAHAHA! Yeah, and Italy is working on outlawing pasta.
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mheister
Raconteur. Blog michaelheister.com
02:07 AM on 02/20/2011
Says the guy who's never spent a day outside of his red-state home in his life.
01:44 AM on 02/17/2011
Last time I looked, America's antequated electrical system was straining to power my window air conditioners and the bathroom electric heater when I take a bath......

How, pray tell, can the overloaded electrical system that just blacked out Texas when it snowed, recharge millions of multikilowatthour electric cars, EVERY NIGHT, without blacking out the country?

Thankfully, the prices for these idiotic cars is so high they'll never become viable outside the toys of the ultrarich. (The electric Smart car is over $US42,000.)

AS the electrical load increases remarkably, the PRICE of power in the USA will increase MARKEDLY to pay for the increased generating capacity that will be required. YOU, the electrical consumer, will be paying double, triple, or more just to light your bathroom....subsidizing your neighbor charging his stupid electric car at YOUR expense.

Are we that stupid??
11:31 AM on 02/17/2011
The "straining" you refer to happens during peak hours, usually during the day.

Plug-in hybrids (THEY are the future, not 100% electric) will, for the most part, be charged during off-peak hours, during the night.
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RogerDF
12:04 PM on 02/17/2011
And, there are those suggesting that during emergency peak hours, power be drawn FROM cars plugged into chargers. Admittedly, discharging my car is a scary thing to me but think of the potential of the power stored in 300 million cars.
02:43 AM on 02/19/2011
Seriously...$37,000 for a VOLT!? No thanks. It's a clown car. I could spend less than half of that and get a Ford Focus, a new 52 inch HDTV, an iPhone, and a lobster dinner. Hhhhhmmmm? This electric movement is a dead end. We need to focus on how the power is MADE, not what it's used for. If people were seriously trying to back the green movement, they wouldn't even bother with this scam. When you actually look into what it takes to make these cars, it's no better than your average internal combustion engine.
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breakingpoint
War is a Racket - Smedley Butler
01:23 AM on 02/17/2011
and that electricity will come form where?
coal?
nukes?
08:23 AM on 02/17/2011
Uh huh, but we actually have plenty of those resources here.
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breakingpoint
War is a Racket - Smedley Butler
12:14 PM on 02/18/2011
and most of the pollution in the country comes from those two resources

can we bury the waste in your backyard?
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3neuticals
08:52 AM on 02/17/2011
Yep.

Coal....nuclear....solar....wind. If we actually had our own sovereign nation and government, we could be making sure RIGHT NOW that all these new wind farms and solar arrays going up were owned by AMERICAN interests rather than allowing these Chinese and European outfits to build them, err...I mean "invest" (wink. wink.) in them. Also, there would be incentives of some sort for people who wished to fit their homes with solar panels MADE IN AMERICA or local clean energy co-ops. The cost of solar is still artificially high making it practically impossible for most people to be SELF-RELIANT instead of being at the mercy of an energy company.
USBrit
And GOP Jesus said, I am come to help the rich.
01:44 PM on 02/23/2011
If one finances the solar system in with the mortgage it is actually cost effective now based upon current electric rates. So, making a safe assumption that electric rates are likely to only go up, solar will make even better sense in the years to come.
12:21 AM on 02/17/2011
it really is very important to protect the polar bears and stuff. thats why i am willing to get an electric car, tomorrow, pending a small donation from some rich hollywood types who are worried about the dolphins etc. because i aint gonna be able to get no new electric car on $20k/year, even if gas goes to $5/gallon it wont cost me as much as the insurance on a new car would.
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3neuticals
08:56 AM on 02/17/2011
Polar bears are important, but I think you will find that most people involved in the subject are more concerned about maintaining present day-forward healthy and sustainable living conditions for humans.
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Jguig
12:07 AM on 02/17/2011
And just where are we going to get all the electricity to power all of these cars?

It takes energy to make energy. The cleanest way to do that is nuclear power. Are we ready to do that?

Look at Europe like most of us here always do. France relies on nuclear power far more than we do. Ready?
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RogerDF
12:07 PM on 02/17/2011
In some ways, France does it better than we do. Their plants are all alike. If you find a bug, you upgrade them all. Staff can move from plant to plant and training can be standardized. Ours are all one-offs. The price for all that is that they innovate very slowly. Every new plant here is the current state of the art.

To answer your question, yes I am ready to commit to nuclear. We also have to commit to re-processing to get rid of spent fuel. There are some very good ideas out there. Check out Hyperion Power for small plants that require minimal oversight.
11:56 PM on 02/16/2011
What kind of infrastructure do you need for an all electric that gets over 100 miles on a single charge and goes over 100 miles an hour. The GM EV1 an electric plug in did it in the ninetys. But the US GOV. and big oil seen it as a threat to the status quo and killed it. Big oil has the technoligy they bought in the ninetys and buried it.
01:51 AM on 02/17/2011
Actually, Ike, it was the GM DEALERS who killed EV1. Dealers depend on the cars breaking down so they can fleece the owners on repairs. New cars are becoming so specialized, computerized and proprietary, the manufacturers are working very hard to support these dealers. Righttorepair dot org is from the independent shops trying to get Congress to pass a law making it your right to repair your own car....or have an independent shop have available the proprietary resources to do it.

EV1 was determined during its test period to need very little repairs and zero oil changes! Dealer's screamed bloody murder and GM responded by burying the cars in the crusher...to the test people's dismay.
11:36 AM on 02/17/2011
Silly wabbit.

As observed and filmed in the movie "Who killed the electric car?", dealers and GM would manufacture and sell cars that ran on horse sh*t if it sold.

The EV1 had two problems: (1) liability issues for Detroit (that's why they had to crush them); and (2) not many consumers were going to buy them because the battery charge was very little and there is no infrastructure in place for 100% electric.

Plug-in Hybrids are the future (and if you get the DVD version of "Who killed the electric car?" you get the distinct impression from the end of the movie and the extras that that is precisely the conclusion the film-maker comes to).
12:43 PM on 02/17/2011
California had laws in place then that forced the manufacturers to produce something like the EV1 or face draconian cuts in what they could sell there. The EV1 cost three times as much to build as they could possibly sell or lease it for. They leased them at a huge loss until the laws were changed and immediately dropped the lease program and retrieved the cars. I agree that selling them as is without warranty would have been a much better political move, but they didn't ask me.
Battery technology is hugely improved now and there are many relatively affordable options around. I most like the idea of the VOLT where running out of juice in the battery is not a problem. I hope the price comes down to where I can afford it.