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Dave Johnson

Dave Johnson

Posted: July 27, 2010 04:57 PM

Shouldn't High Unemployment = Less Work to Do?

What's Your Reaction:

Simple question: have we reached a point where machines and computers leave us with less work to do? If so it can mean a lot of people are left without jobs and incomes, losing their homes and health, while the rest have our wages dragged ever downward. Or we can make some changes in who gets what for what, and every one of us ends up better off.

Cake or death? Which will it be? (*explained below)

Somewhere around one in five of us is un- or under-employed while at the same time so many of the rest of us, still employed are stressed, tired, doing the work of those laid off. With too few employed many stores, restaurants, hotels and many other businesses are falling behind. As Bob Herbert puts it today, "Simply stated, more and more families are facing utter economic devastation: completely out of money, with their jobs, savings and retirement funds gone, and nowhere to turn for the next dollar." The government has stepped in with stimulus to pick up some of the slack in demand but that can't go on forever and we need to find long-term solutions.

Is it structural?

There are signs that the jobs crisis may now be structural, or built into the system. This means that the usual solutions are not going to "restart the engine" and trigger a return to an economy that had where almost everyone can find a job, (even if it is a menial, boring time-suck).

Our unemployment emergency may really be about less work to do. Hale "Bonddad" Stewart writing at 538.com, Labor Force Realignment and Jobless Recoveries concludes, (click through for gazillions of charts and full explanation)

The "jobless recovery" is in fact a realignment of the U.S. labor force. Fewer and fewer employees are needed to produce durable goods. As this situation has progressed, the durable goods workforce has decreased as well. This does not mean the U.S. manufacturing base is in decline. If this were the case, we would see a drop in both manufacturing output and productivity. Instead both of those metrics have increased smartly over the last two decades, indicating that instead of being in decline, U.S. manufacturing is simply doing more with less.

So it may be that machines and computers are doing more of the work that people used to have to do.

Robert Reich sees signs of structural unemployment as well, writing in The Great Decoupling of Corporate Profits From Jobs,

... big U.S. businesses are investing their cash in labor-saving technologies. This boosts their productivity, but not their payrolls. [. . .] The reality is this: Big American companies may never rehire large numbers of workers. And they won't even begin to think about hiring until they know American consumers will buy their products. The problem is, American consumers won't start buying against until they know they have reliable paychecks.

So what do we do?

Maybe we need some changes in who gets what for what. Right now we have an economy that is structured to send most of its benefits to a few at the top, while the rest of us -- the help -- sink ever downward into less and less security. People with power and wealth benefit when they figure out how to cause other people to receive lower pay -- or just lose their jobs. Eliminating jobs brings bonuses to the eliminators -- a perverse incentive if ever there was one. If someone can figure out how to cut your pay and benefits or just get rid of you ("eliminate your position") they get to pocket what you were making, and you get nothing (and conservatives say you're lazy). If you don't own the company you're out of luck.

In the past this perverse incentive was mitigated by people banding together in governments and/or unions and forcing the wealthy and powerful to share. But modern marketing science has been successful at making people believe that government and unions are bad for them. This was also mitigated by the ongoing need to find people to do the jobs that needed to get done. But with continual improvements in technology this need is reduced. We're living the result.

Also, this perverse incentive structure assumes an infinite pool of customers to sell to, ignoring that the transaction of benefiting from eliminating a job also eliminates a customer. But modern business has become so efficient at job elimination that this comes into play. Who will be able to buy the TVs that the employee-eliminating factory makes, if all the employees are eliminated and have no income?

These are structural problems that we can change. Let me just brainstorm a few possibilities for structural changes into the mix here:

  • Today when they replace a worker with a machine, the few at the top get another chunk of income, the worker gets nothing. But suppose a worker got to keep some of the economic benefit from getting laid off! Suppose that if your company replaces you with with a machine you get, say, 15% of the cost-savings as ongoing income. Heck, getting laid off would be a good thing, like winning a prize. After you get laid off a few times you only have to work part time. Get laid off enough times, you can retire.

  • Suppose we just shorten the workweek? What if we change from a 40-hour workweek to a 30-hour workweek? Economist Dean Baker has been offering ideas for workweek reductions for some time:

    The other obvious way to provide a quick boost to the economy is by giving employers tax incentives for shortening their standard workweek or work year. This can take different forms. An employer who currently provides no paid vacation can offer all her workers three weeks a year of paid vacation, approximately a 6% reduction in work time.

  • Suppose the corporations and wealthy were taxed at the rate they were taxed before all the deficits and income inequality started, and the government just sent everyone a check, which served as a base income? Then everyone's wages would be higher because desperate people wouldn't be fighting over the few jobs. So then the better those at the top do, the better all of us do.

    These are just a few ideas for restructuring the economy in ways the help all of us instead of just a few at the top. Please add your ideas in the comments.

    We have a choice. We can continue with the system we have, and most of us -- the help -- will just get poorer and poorer while a few at the top take home more and more. Or we can change who gets what for what, and everyone comes out ahead.

    *So which will it be, cake or death?

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    This post originally appeared at Campaign for America's Future (CAF) at their Blog for OurFuture. I am a Fellow with CAF.

     

    Follow Dave Johnson on Twitter: www.twitter.com/dcjohnson

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    wmnorton
    Moderate where moderate used to be
    03:02 AM on 07/29/2010
    The only reason that corporations are running the government is because of the cost of running for federal office. To fix this we need an amendment to the constitution which would say sonething like

    No one make collect more to obtain an office than the office pays. Congress may provide additional funds. No one may conribute to a candidate for office who can not vote for that candidate.

    There are many things that this would accomplish, among these are
    1. The money would have to come from the people that would be represented.
    2. Since the people who would be running for office would have to go back to the old fashioned way of canpaigning, ie: getting out and meeting people, they would be in closer contact with the people.
    3. Campaigns would have to be shorter.
    12:04 PM on 07/28/2010
    Great article Dave. There is a glaring underlying premise to all of your points which is this: capitalism as a viable economic system is finished. The normative operational paradigm of a modern, mature capitalist system is not growth but stagnation. It is an uncontested fact that China alone has the abilibity to manufacture every single little gadget that is needed by the rest of the world, from airplanes to cars to potato peelers. Modern manufacturing technigues, using robots and computors, is rapidly making workers obsolete. We had all better wake up to this fact and do something about it before it is too late and we find ourselves burning down our own homes so we can have land to grow a few vegetables on.
    11:54 AM on 07/28/2010
    One criticism, your article states "The "jobless recovery" is in fact a realignment of the U.S. labor force. Fewer and fewer employees are needed to produce durable goods. As this situation has progressed, the durable goods workforce has decreased as well"..."So it may be that machines and computers are doing more of the work that people used to have to do."

    It isn't more machine and computers. It's ILLEGALS. Those companies STILL need employees to make their products and to be successful. We are not in some New Age of Commerce. It's the same old business as usual. The only difference is that the jobs are now being done by non-Americans. You are right about a realignment of the U.S. labor force. The American workforce has been replaced by cheap foreign labor.
    11:47 AM on 07/28/2010
    You are exactly right. The problem is, companies are counting on the illegals who they have hired to buy their products...which they are. They only people I see working in my neighborhood, whether it's at the local mall, the Comcast business offices, the FedEx drivers, or the guy reloading the soda machine at the community pool are exclusively Hispanic. No American workers. Walk through Sears and you feel like you're in a South American country. No one speaks English. But apparently that's okay because the only people who have any money to spend are the illegals who don't speak English either. Obama has created a New America with New Americans. In his immigration reform speech the other night, he said that "immigrants" (ie, illegals) will mean a younger and more productive workforce to compete in the global economy. I guess Americans aren't young enough or productive enough for his New World Order. Not only was that comment the most egregious case of age discrimination I've ever heard, it insults the millions of young American high school and college grads who are now looking desperately for work, and can't find it. Businesses will not stop hiring illegals until they are forced to. That will be the only way Americans will get their jobs back, and the only way the economy will heal.
    HUFFPOST SUPER USER
    Tiggerchick
    if your view is myopic, go get Lasik
    10:13 AM on 07/28/2010
    Forget about reducing the work week to 30 hours...how about an actual 40 hour work week? Get rid of the exempt employee - the employee who is salaried and does not qualify for overtime. I've been a salaried, exempt employee my whole life (well, until 2008 when I was "retired" against my will) and I never worked "just" 40 hours - more like 55 - 70. In fact, employers seem to have the expectation that employees will work whatever they're told and that 40 hours is just not "good enough".

    Force employers to actually pay for the sweat equity they're receiving by making a mandatory 40 hour work week for everyone. No more free overtime. Then you'll see how quickly departments will resume operating at a normal staffing level. No more running the last three people into the ground because they've seen 5 of their peers let go and are wondering who's next. Better work that OT or it might be me.
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    FoonTheElder
    Always choosing between the lesser of two evils
    09:48 AM on 07/28/2010
    From Robert Reich:
    "So with all this money and profit, they’ll start hiring again, right? Wrong – for three reasons.

    First, lots of their profits are coming from their overseas operations. So that’s where they’re investing and expanding production.

    GM now sells more cars in China than it does in the US, but makes most of them there. The company now employs 32,000 hourly workers in China. But only 52,000 GM hourly workers remain in the United States – down from 468,000 in 1970.

    GM isn’t just hiring low-tech assembly workers in China. Last week the firm broke ground there on a $250 million advanced technology center to develop batteries and other alternative energy sources.

    You and I and other American taxpayers still own over 60 percent of GM. We bought GM to save GM jobs, remember?

    GM officials say no American taxpayer money is being used to expand in China. But money is fungible. Because of our generosity, GM can now use the dollars it doesn’t have to spend in the United States meeting its American payrolls and repaying its creditors, for new investments in China."

    http://robertreich.org/
    11:48 AM on 07/28/2010
    Good points Foon. I wrote on these post, over a year ago when all this bailout business was going down, that the end result of the bailouts to the banks and GM would be the banks lending to GM so they could build up production in China on the US taxpayer dime.
    Wise up and rise up! This is our country; take to the streets and take it back.
    ThePeacemakers
    Concerned Citizen
    12:27 PM on 07/28/2010
    And again I have to be PO'd!!!

    Why are we giving tax breaks to purchase cars from a company that is LOATHE to hire USA workers???

    That's the EPITOME of our problem!!!!!!
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    FoonTheElder
    Always choosing between the lesser of two evils
    09:45 AM on 07/28/2010
    China's employment in manufacturing went up from about 60 million in 1980 to 100 million in 2002. There's plenty of work being done, it just isn't being done in the U.S.
    http://www.bls.gov/fls/chinareport.pdf

    "How long will it take for Americans to realize they’ve been had by their own corporations? US jobs are not coming back because the factories will not re-open, because those factories are now in communist China. This did not happen in previous recessions, except to a smaller extent where there was a manufacturing scare in the 1980s when Japan was taking manufacturing jobs.

    US corporations began outsourcing and off-shoring jobs to China shortly after they were able to convince the US government to dismantle trade and investment regulations, about 10 years ago.

    All the corporations thought this was great because they could employ people in China for 10 cents/hour and still sell the stuff for the same price back home in the US. How long could this continue? – for as long as the consumer and US government could continue borrowing. Time is almost up.

    The US will soon have no choice but to either slap import restrictions on products from China, or devalue their currency so they can keep borrowing. Either way, the whole corporate deck of cards is going to collapse. After that the rebuilding can begin. We must bring back the manufacturing jobs."

    http://www.thecomingdepression.net/main-street/deindustrialization/manufacturing-base-intentionally-destroyed-analysts/
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    HUFFPOST SUPER USER
    Carl Caroli
    Give peace a chance
    07:32 AM on 07/28/2010
    Bonuses and other perverse management incentives, like stock options, have turned corporations main focus from producing products to producing profits. The short term, quarterly results syndrome must be overcome if we want to readjust the distribution of wealth in this country.
    06:25 AM on 07/28/2010
    pretty soon there will be one fat guy in a suit sitting in an office producing a widget for the last consumer made by a robot in the back room. when that widget is sold he will stand up turn off the lights and close the door to his profitable business for the last time.
    parasites need to remember the only rule that really matters to them...don't kill the host.
    03:15 AM on 07/28/2010
    You hit the nail right on the head! Who is going to buy their products when all of the good paying jobs are gone? I am a 3rd generation professional woodworker and I spent the last 30 years working my way up from an Apprentice to an Estimator in the commercial cabinet and millwork industry here in Southern California. The decline in our trade started about 15 years ago as illegal immigrants brought downward pressure on wages and finally the demise of the union shops. Then we were given NAFTA which brought unfair competition from both Mexico and Canada. The reasons that we can't compete with Mexican products are widely known but many are surprised to learn that Canada also has an unfair advantage. For many years the Canadian government has subsidized their manufacturers in order to keep their citizens working. The final straw was when China started to dump large quantities of cheap cabinets. After 30 years I lost my job with very little chance of finding another in my industry anytime in the near future. Apparently I chose a trade that has been classified by our government as one of those jobs "that American's don't want to do." My situation is not unique. There are millions of unemployed workers who previously had good paying manufacturing jobs that are gone and not coming back. America needs drastic change NOW!
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    HUFFPOST SUPER USER
    jcaunter
    Profile: schizoid, INTJ, IQ145
    03:03 AM on 07/28/2010
    Knowing Obama and Wall Street and the financial elite who rule America, they'll pick the later option. The Wall Street Oligarchy and their Washington political class sock puppets dream of turning all Americans into neo-fuedalist debt serfs. They will want no part of your proposals, though those proposals are probably the only thing that will prevent revolution.
    02:11 AM on 07/28/2010
    corporations don't need us
    they have world markets
    cheap labor
    they just need our address, banks , bailouts and taxbreaks
    and cheap $$ from Fed
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    MajorKong
    If the pilot's good, see, I mean if he's reeeally
    08:39 PM on 07/27/2010
    "So it may be that machines and computers are doing more of the work that people used to have to do. "

    All well and good except for one very major flaw -

    Machines don't buy anything.

    They don't live in houses. They don't drive Fords. They don't eat at McDonald's. They don't drink coffee from Starbucks. They don't wear clothes from Target. They don't go to movies. They don't drink Budweiser. They don't go on vacation at Disneyland.
    11:48 PM on 07/27/2010
    So, are you saying we should pay people to dig holes and fill them up?
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    HUFFPOST BLOGGER
    Dave Johnson
    12:57 AM on 07/28/2010
    The post says we could pay people some of the savings from laying them off, shorten the workweek, redistribute upper incomes, and asks people to leave a comment with their own ideas.
    07:44 PM on 07/27/2010
    I have just received in the mail several back to school catalogs for women and kids. I am wondering
    this is not for me anymore. Who can afford a 75.00 dress for their child? What an awful mom I am that my child will not be well dressed this Fall. It makes me think how interconnected the wealthy are to the middle. Soon these catalogs won't come anymore and it will be a relief.
    07:32 PM on 07/27/2010
    “We need to revisit the plight of HG Wells' "Eloi", blissfully ignorant people who "looked" evolved but were "dependent" on the industrialized "Morlocks".
    Our sustenance is no longer in our hands as the wealthy corporate free traders STILL shout
    "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!"
    We have been in an "under the radar" trade war since after WWII but the 21st century robber barons don't care.
    All of our banks (yeah, the ones WE the taxpayers bailed out) are on the menu next:

    "Sumitomo Mitsui is considering investing in and possibly acquiring major North American banks, according to a report Friday"
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sumitomo-mitsui-looks-to-buy-american-bank-report-2010-07-22

    Sumitomo Mitsui is one of the many companies listed in RESPECTED historian Linda Goetz Holme's book
    "Unjust Enrichment: How Japan's Companies Built Postwar Fortunes Using American POWs"
    (source: Official Japanese Government list of companies using POW forced labor in WWII)

    OUR own bankers are evil enough...just wait until they are owned by our
    so-called free trade partners that keep handing us shovels to dig ourselves deeper!
    Ian Fletcher has the answer in his 2010 book: "Free Trade Doesn't Work"
    We had better heed him or it will be welcome to the new "United Eloi States of America"â€
    Shame on unbridled free traders, the men on Mt. Rushmore would bring them up on treason charges!â€
    http://www.wfrnlive.com/labor-issues/buy-american