Goodbye, Fidel -- If Not Quite Good Riddance

Well, it sure was one of the moments we've all been waiting for here in Miami: in a "Message from the Commander in Chief" in the Communist Party paper Granma, the world's longest-reigning dictator, Fidel Castro Ruz, finally pink-slipped himself, not just as head of the military but as president of Cuba. The rumor mill's even been speculating that he's dead, and that the regime is preparing the way with this announcement. Either way, now someone else can be tapped for the top job by the National Assembly this coming Sunday. It'll probably be Fidel's brother Raúl (already de facto ruler, of course), but there's also talk about veep and de facto prime minister Carlos Lage, who at age 57 would represent the beginning of the passing of the torch to a new generation of Party hacks.

After a swing today through Little Havana and Hialeah, though, I found that more than a few of Miami's Cuban-Americans, regardless of age, have been underwhelmed. On this overcast and rainy morning, unlike the frenzy I covered in August of 2006 when Castro gave up power temporarily, the reaction's been more muted (though that could change once people get out of work this evening). There's been some honking and flag-waving, but most folks I've talked to seemed unsurprised and little more than mildly pleased. "It's something we've been expecting for a long time," one sixtysomething gent told me. Added Consuelo, a matronly lady who left Cuba in the 1960's, "nothing much will change down there -- it'll be the same rum in a different bottle."

Cubans who came to the United States more recently, though, along with my contacts still on the island, seemed more... "hopeful" if that's the right word. Both groups know the desperation in today's Cuba much better than exiles who jumped ship 40 years ago, and Cubans on the island took the news calmly and philosophically -- how else, when the old guy's been more or less out to pasture and in worsening health for the past year and a half? Still, they're cautiously optimistic because, as one Havana dissident -- and former Miami exile -- Eloy Gutiérrez Menoyo put it, things have gotten so bad that "change is a question of necessity." Now that Fidel's officially out of the way, the thinking goes, Raúl and company will finally be free to start changes that they know are crucial if their Revolution is to survive long-term.

That's what I meant when I wrote in my Huffpo post just last Friday about the handful of "glimmerings of glasnost" both in Cuba and potentially also in Miami and Washington. It would be nice to imagine a Velvet Revolution, a post-Pinochet or -Franco transition -- but don't hold your breath. And a Ceausescu-style reckoning also doesn't seem likely (or desireable). Instead, chances are it'll be closer to what's happened in Syria since Hafez al-Assad. It's true that Assad's kid Bashir is young and reasonably vigorous, while Raúl's barely less geriatric than Fidel. But pretty much every Cuban, Cuban-American, and in-the-know gringo of my acquaintance believes the system's probably entrenched enough to survive both of them. And as we've learned all too well from eight years of Bush-Cheney, you only need a core of support to impose your will on an entire country.

What is fairly certain, though, is that no changes that might come to pass on the island will be enough for the "intransigentes" in Miami and Washington. One of America's top "embargo-industrialists," Miami GOP Congressman Lincoln Díaz-Balart, released a statement saying "Let us not get confused with the dictator's titles or lack of them -- nothing has changed," and Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte tersely declared the U.S. economic and travel embargo against Cuba is not going anywhere "anytime soon."

On the other hand, I've heard University of Miami analyst Jaime Suchlicki muse, change could be afoot in a new (Democratic) administration, if Obama or Clinton manage to survive a likely Republican slime campaign. Clinton is taking the safe, keep-the-embargo position, while Obama staffers told me they're looking to lift the ban on most family visits, and eventually go even further, but "incrementally." Personally, I'd prefer to see freedom of travel totally reinstated -- but hey, people forget the guy's still a pol, no matter how inspiring, and at least the supposed black reincarnation of JFK is unlikely to pull another Bay of Pigs.

So, bottom line: Could this be the beginning, at long last, of Cuba's evolution along the lines of U.S. trade partners China and Vietnam? To get rich is glorious but challenge the Party and you're tostada? That's what early indicators seem to be suggesting, and that might well be fine with many -- possibly most -- Cubans on the island. The bigger problem is likely to be on this side of the Florida Straits -- the dead-end, all-or-nothing stance that for nearly a half-century has done nothing but help bolster the Castro regime by giving it an all-purpose scapegoat for its myriad failures. Except for those in Miami and Washington feeding off the embargo-industrial complex, we all want families reunited, political prisoners released, democratic elections, economic reforms, and freedom of the press. But to make it happen, we really need to work for all of that intelligently and realistically. For a change.

Comments

[cinemaven]

I have to echo MagisterLudi's comments when he speaks of the achievements of Cuba despite a lack of resources. Their chief export is doctors and those doctors are prized for their knowledge and training. 25,000 doctors are working outside of Cuba worldwide.

I'll be in Cuba on the 22nd. I'm taking a package of medical samples from local doctors and school supplies donated by a local school. Many items that we all take for granted cannot be obtained easily no matter how well you've done for yourself. The place I'll be staying in Holguin likely has the best educated maids and bartenders you'll meet in your travels. Jobs in the thriving tourist industry are plums for Cubans who gain access to the stuff we bring in and leave behind. I'll have two suitcases when I arrive and one small carry on when I leave. Some of the items will end up in the black market but most will be donated to the school and dr.'s office in the area where I'm staying.

I'll also be visiting friends in Cuba who are artists so I'm bringing a bolt of canvas and some standing base and guitar strings. When Cuban artists visited here, I was one of the volunteer drivers. When they were taken to (a very small local) art supply store, the two men I drove almost wept at the amount of things we have available. I watched them create incredibly beautiful pieces using tools that we would consider totally out of date.

I wonder what will happen to Cuba when the embargo is lifted. I can't help but think of the people I met at resorts in the Dominican, Jamaica and other Caribbean spots. Education was lacking, access to medical care was lacking and they were just as greatful as the Cubans to have the many items I left behind. I have to hope that once the U.S. has access to Cuba, the education and medical care remain where they are and only good things come of it but the track record doesn't make one hopeful!

[MagisterLudi]

"Castro regime... its myriad failures."

You conveniently forgot to mention myriad successes: education: better than USA; medical care: better childhood mortality rate than USA, etc. This is no accident but one of the achievements of Cuban socialism, unmatched in Caribbean.

One can only has to look at animal-like conditions of the poor in Puerto Rico and Haiti to realize how much vigor is left (pun intended) in the Cuban socialism.

Americans elite (Democrat and Republicans) doesn't give a rats ass about Cuban democracy and well-being. China and Saudi Are glaring examples of that disregard.
Just read the cautious, caveat filled comments by supposed Progressive (not) Mr. Obama.

US yearns to convert Cuba to laissez fair capitalism service economy with its corresponding crime, narco-crime, prostitution, abject poverty and drastic reduction in education, social services and medical care.

Important thing is that American corps get to flood Cuba with poisonous Coke, McDonals, Twinkies and non-union sub-poverty level jobs like Wal-Mart and Nike, eh?

And you WOULD love it if Cuban women would all become waitresses and whores, and men janitors to serve fat American tourists.

Not so fast.

[Timma]

Cuba is beautiful and deserves to have the US embargo lifted without exceptions. While many people abhor Castro all world leaders deserve to be heard especially as they leave office. At this moment the United States would be better served by attuning its ears to Fidel Castro's parting words rather than dictating it susual pompous rhetoric about freedom and democracy. Castro said he would'nt appoint his brother Raul to succeed him because it is time for younger people to take the reins. Those words my friends are spoken from the heart by a man who understands more than anyone the mistakes of the past. I hope President Bush is listening.

[Liberal2]

Heh, what about the US role in maintaining Battista in power, which allowed US mobs to control gambling in Cuba. Like the ayatollahs in Iran, Castro is the result of US interference in Cuba.

[Berettasskeeter]

What about Bautista? Under him (a black man, by the way), Cuba enjoyed net immigration, the highest per capita income in the Caribean region, full literacy, and better health care.
Under the current regime, Castro and Che (a favorite of the LEft), murdered thousands (many personnally), jailed thousands more (some of whom have been in prison since the 60's). There is some speculation that the Russians pulled their missiles out of Cuba more because they were afraid Castro and Che would actually use them, than that the US would use them as an invasion excuse.
Raul Castro has been the head of the Cuban Armed Forces and the head of the Cuban secret police. He has been responsible for the brutal repression of millions. He won't be any different.
Pardon me if I'm not impressed by either Castro's retirement, or the hysterical ravings of HuffPo's posters.
Semper fi

[BARRISTER]

berettaASSkeeter:

Surely you jest.Under Batista you are suggesting that Cub "enjoyed":-

(a) net immigration. Know why? the Rich minority,like in America now, were enjoying exploiting the poor and middle class so they had no reason to migrate anywhere. They sent their kids to school in SPAIN, NOT America. They stayed home and got vulgarly richer.

The poor and the middle class could not afford to migrate. And, f they even harboured the thought, they quickly dismissed it for fear that one of Batista's many spies found out and they were executed. So, yes, net immigration, thje immigrants to Cuba being the Mafia and other American Criminals.

(b) Highest per capita icome in the Caribbean region. True at the time. But, per capitaincome is TOTAL income divided by the population. That does not mean that all Cubans had a high, moderate or above poverty level income. It means, like America today, that the Very Rich Minority were making lots of money from crime, gambling, prostitution, drugs and the exploitation of the middle and working classes. Very much like America today.

(c) Full literacy? Surely that is the punch line in your tepid joke. he fact is that when Castro took over ILLITERACY in Cuba was OVER 80% of the population. No working class literates; few middle class literates. That is why the Revolution began the literacy project so soon after January 1st. 1959. You are qute wrong. Again.

(d) Better health care? In pre-1959 Cuba? what Fairy Tale are you reading. There was NO health care. The Cuban Rich would go to Miami to have regular medicals etc. The middle class and poor would have to do without any health care at all. What there was, and that was precious little, was reserved for the cronies og the Criminal Batista's cronies.

Bottom line is that you are talking through your sphincter: pure unadulterated crap with absolutely bo basis in fact. Your propagander cannot change the historical facts.

[alohaboxer]

I hate to take the self-serving stance here, but I would love to be able to buy my favorite rum, Havana Club, anejo reserva, in both the 7 and 15 year aged versions, at my local liquor store in Florida. I would also love to take the short trip and see the home of one of America's greatest writers, Earnest Hemingway, and see the culture which inspired Lecuona to compose such amazing music.
As a Tampa native, I have been fortunate to have a tremendous Cuban cultural influences in my city and my life. I have been lucky.
Hopefully someone will change things soon. Until then, I will have to skirt the law a tad and get my Havana Club where I can; imagine the shores of Cuba and the great fish awaiting me there; and smoke contraband with La Comparsa southing my soul.

[Novista]

Wow, alohaboxer

I was born in Tampa ... my piano teacher was a personal friend of Ernesto Lecuona ... and music and rum, bring back memories.

My parents visited Cuba when it was still possible back when ... said they met Fidel himself, always wondered about that.

Cheers!

[MagisterLudi]

Cigars!

[alohaboxer]

Greeting fellow Tampanian. All my best friends and loves started with music and rum, and Cuba has the best. Open it up again for passion is nothing else.

[davis6774]

If Cuban-Americans really wanted change, then you would think they would support dropping the embargo. The embargo only hurts the Cuban people (their friends and relatives) and hasn’t worked for the past 40 years. So, letting us "free" Americans travel to Cuba, invest in Cuba, would ease tensions and bring 21th Centrury progress to an anachronistic country. The trick, and probably what worries the Cubans, is how you do progress, but not progress to the horrible humanitarian crisis in these democratic icons of Central America.