Don't Be Deceived by Carmelo Anthony's Scoring Totals

This post originally appeared on Freakonomics.com

Here is how the Associated Press led the story describing the Miami Heat's elimination of the New York Knicks in the 2012 NBA Playoffs:

The final horn sounded, and LeBron James wrapped his arms around Carmelo Anthony in a warm embrace.

Their head-to-head scoring matchup in this series was even, 139 points apiece.

Just about everything else tipped Miami's way -- so the Heat are moving on and the New York Knicks are going home.

Such a lead gives the impression that Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James played about the same in this series. If we delve a bit deeper, though, we see that the scoring totals are quite deceptive. Here is each player's level of shooting efficiency in the series:

Carmelo Anthony: 0.435 Effective Field Goal Percentage, 0.489 True Shooting Percentage

LeBron James: 0.517 Effective Field Goal Percentage, 0.604 True Shooting Percentage

Because Melo was a far less efficient scorer, he had to attempt 34 more shots from the field than LeBron in the series. And because shot attempts are a finite resource, this means that other players on the Knicks had to attempt fewer shots (with the exception of J.R. Smith, everyone else on the Knicks who attempted at least 10 shots from the field was more efficient than Melo in this series).

In contrast, LeBron was able to achieve his scoring total with fewer shots, giving him more opportunities to set up his teammates. One can see this clearly when we look at assists. LeBron finished the series with 28 assists while Melo only had 11.

Melo did finish with more rebounds and fewer turnovers. But when we consider the vast differences in shooting efficiency and assists we see that King James -- as has been the case throughout each player's respective careers -- had a far bigger impact on his team's fortunes. In fact, Andres Alvarez -- at the Wages of Wins Journal -- notes that LeBron led the Heat in Wins Produced during this series (he did the same for the regular season). In contrast, Melo's production of wins -- because he was a very inefficient scorer -- was in the negative range.

Such a story highlights an important lesson: scoring totals in the NBA can be quite deceptive. A player can boost his scoring totals by simply taking more and more shots. But if this shooting is inefficient, teams actually suffer from this choice. Of course, as the AP story illustrates, the inefficient scorer's reputation often does not decline from this choice. Hence we see this story repeat itself over and over again in the NBA.

 

 

 

Comments

[Dave Kaye]

09:48 PM on 05/20/2012

Why is with Denver everybody loved Melo. He comes to the Knicks he's overrated and not a great player blah, blah.

[CatfishJohn]

08:23 PM on 05/15/2012

Thank you, thank you thank you again for depicting the obvious to these clueless Costanza and Newman Knicks fans about Carmello..He is a selfish player, easy to see lazy on D, inconsistent hustle. he is this generation's "me-first" George Mcginnis... the ONLY reason Carmello likest he word "team" is that it has the letters ME in it....

[scottarino]

11:58 PM on 05/14/2012

You have a crush on "king James" .

[tedperl]

11:27 PM on 05/14/2012

Gkislander, the post was not intended for basketball fans who followed the series.

[GKIslander]

07:18 PM on 05/14/2012

I don't understand what this article is getting at. Melo is the focal point of the Knicks' offense. Aside from Amare, who hasn't been healthy and had his poorest outing by far this year, Melo is the most reliable and established offensive player. He practically carried the Knicks to their only win in the playoffs, making one clutch basket after another. His shooting percentage can be explain by a specific defensive design made up specifically to stop Melo. If you watched the series closely, Melo had James on him and Battier at different periods in the game, both of whom are superior defensive players. Miami defense also collapsed on the Knicks' perimeter players and took away their threes. For the most part, Melo had to consistently generate offense.

The series in no way demonstrate Anthony's offensive deficiencies. Anthony is a superior offensive player in the league. James is a dominant all around player. All scouts in the NBA would confirm that.

[slevydc]

10:33 PM on 05/14/2012

Watch a game carMelo Anthony is involved with. Carmelo is an excellent scorer and has an amazing touch for a player of his size, but Carmelo can only create shots. Carmelo does not involve his teammates in plays, relying on his height and one-on-one shooting ability to score on opposing teams. Players on his team end up standing around watching as he "goes to work". This is why Indiana is so successful and is in the second round, the team doesn't have a go-to player but everybody touches the ball and everybody isminvolved in every play. Because everybody gets their touches on offense, everybody is invested in playing team defense as well. The point the article is making is that even though Carmelo is incredibly talented, his play actually hurts his team, even as he pours in points.

[GKIslander]

07:34 PM on 05/15/2012

Slevydc, with all the due respect to the original writer, the assessment of Anthony expressed in the article is not accurate or objective for that matter. My point is exactly that the Knicks had perimeter players who cannot create their own shots and whose shots were taken away by Miami's stingy defense. Anthony had no choice, but to shoot to keep the Knicks in the games. As for the Pacers, they actually have more players capable of getting their own shots...The team has moved away from Granger as "the franchise player," and acquired more talent, which is a great move on their part. Whether the NY coach needs to keep Amar'e more involved in the offense, however, is a different story. That will need to be resolved in the next full training camp. Aside from getting the Amare & Melo tandem to work properly, the Knicks are a solid combo guard away from serious contention.

[CatfishJohn]

08:25 PM on 05/15/2012

EXACTLY slevy!...and we havent even considered that he plays incredibly lazy, minimal defense..even in 4th quarters