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David Brody

David Brody

Posted: March 3, 2010 11:28 AM

Health Care Reform: A Political Lose-Lose for President Obama and Democrats?

What's Your Reaction:

I've got some bad news for President Obama and the Democrats. Politically, this health care reform issue could very well end up as a lose-lose situation. Let me explain.

If health care reform does not pass then it'll look like the Democratic Party and this administration can't get their act together and govern. At that point, November 2010 could look like me in a bathing suit. Downright nasty.

If health care reform does pass then get ready for health care Armageddon. If you think those town halls last August were rough, imagine what this August will be like. Those town halls across the country may end up making the Jerry Springer show look tame.

The Democratic Party is in a tough spot because even if they pass health care reform, we're really not going to see any sort of tangible result for years. In other words, there is not going to be an exact quantitative way for the Democrats to measure its potential for success in 2010 or even 2012. There might be some signs that Democrats will no doubt point to but honestly, all of us will have no clue.

I know the conventional thinking is that Democrats just HAVE to get a bill through or they will look like political goofballs. While that may indeed be true, I think the larger problem for them politically is if they pass this bill through reconciliation. This administration has already been saddled with the narrative (fair or unfair) that they want to shove big government programs down the throats of Americans. Throwing in reconciliation will only fan the flames. When you have polling suggesting that Americans aren't buying the big government approach to health care then you're playing with fire. Piecemeal is the safer play but this President came to The White House wanting to do big things so piecemeal isn't going to work.

Years ago, using reconciliation to pass the Bush tax cuts may not have been the right thing to do (depending on your perspective) but the big difference is that millions of Americans were getting checks in the mail because of it. It's hard to be against that. You won't hear too much complaining about that but passing health care reform through reconciliation doesn't have that immediate payoff. People are impatient. What are they getting immediately? Health care reform will take some time to play out and right now time is not a friend of the Democrats.

Senator Jim DeMint may have said it best last year when he uttered these now famous words:"

"If we're able to stop Obama on [health care reform], it will be his Waterloo."
History buffs know that the defeat at Waterloo was the end of the road for Napoleon's rule as Emperor of the French. President Obama and the Democrats may be about to find out that Jim DeMint might be more than just a Senator. He may end up being a political prophet.

 

Follow David Brody on Twitter: www.twitter.com/thebrodyfile

I've got some bad news for President Obama and the Democrats. Politically, this health care reform issue could very well end up as a lose-lose situation. Let me explain. If health care reform does no...
I've got some bad news for President Obama and the Democrats. Politically, this health care reform issue could very well end up as a lose-lose situation. Let me explain. If health care reform does no...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Mikyung Lim
11:58 PM on 03/05/2010
I do not agree to Mr. David Brody’s statement,
“politically, this health care reform issue could end up as a lose-lose situation for President and administration… If health care reform does not pass it'll look like the Democratic Party and this administration can't get their act together (probably correct). If they pass health care reform, we're really not going to see any sort of tangible result for years, leaving no quantitative way for the Democrats to measure its potential for success in 2010 or even 2012….This administration has already been saddled with the narrative that they want to shove big government programs down the throats of Americans.â€

I believe, the focal point of not passing health care reform will be public’s perception of President’s failure of not delivering his reform promise. This will rule over anything else. Not working economy, failed reforms, and continuously malfunctioning social system, in other words, the harsh reality will bite President/administration most, not the ideological debate of big government. If everything goes fine, people will forget about “What Big Government?.†Public seem to change their mind all the time.
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collinda
1ProudVet
05:42 PM on 03/05/2010
I've always believed that Obama never wanted to pass healthcare in 2009. Think about it. he could have used reconciliation last summer. As a matter of fact, he wanted 60 votes in the Senate for the express purpose of not having his party force him to fight for a more progressive bill through reconciliation. His maneavering has placed his party in a great position on healthcare.

In 2009, the phrase, "a government takeover of healthcare," = "the public option." Up to 13 Democratic Senators and 30-40 "Blue dog" Democrats were dead set against any form of a public option. By withdrawing his public support for the public option, and going with the, "Baucas bill" he innoculated the public option. And now, Democrats, who opposed any public plan facing a nightmare in this years' midterms, the president now has leverage to go to reconciliation (that's right, Obama couldn't use reconcilation sooner because of members of his own party!)

So now, if the Democrats can get a bill with at least an expansion of medicare, the repeal of the ant-trust exemption, and the slowing down of spending on healthcare over the longterm. This would be a coup of epic proportions. One problem: I get the sinking feeling that this is not what Obama was after.

Bottom line: If he signs a bill with the insurance mandate, without either the public option or an expansion of medicare, think 1980 all over again for the Democrats. It's Jimmy Carter on steroids!
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Changeizgood
01:52 PM on 03/10/2010
REally collinda?!
Ram = to shove it down ones throat unbi-particianly
Imagine that in a Democracy.
The plan was to "call them all out for being the corporate whores they have become, under the guise of being a elected official "For the People."

Sound like success to me. The gridlockers had to be called out. When Bush stole/won the election, he had support from both parties UNTIL he lied and became the incompetent borrowing Wall St gift giving f00l he became with rubberstamping smelephant party backing his every blunder.

But he still had support when he WON THE PRESIDENCY.

This group of bought and paid for hoolagans need to be thrown out for selling US workers to the highest bidder like a low wage auction worldwide.

Oh the midterms are so very important to do just that from both parties voters. Libertarians don't like being hoodwinked by their officials who take their hard earned donations and lie to them about what "is really going in the bills."

They don't like Obama, but they hate a liar worse, and now they have plenty of guns to back it up.

Keep it up and there will be another class war of the 20's and 30's.

President Obama followed the law of the land for a bi-paritcian bill after the rethugs put 169 amendments in the bill with bluedawgonits on Insurance dole, they still voted NO.

We'll see in NOVEMBER.
03:40 PM on 03/05/2010
You are absolutely correct, Dave, this Obama "health care" "reform" push has DISASTER-DISASTER written ALL OVER IT.

for the simple reason that it is NOT "Health Care" "reform" - it is INSURANCE 'reform'....

...it is MANDATORY, Profit-uber-alles INSURANCE, from the VERY DESPISED insurance packagers, who have created this health-care CRISIS in the first place!

I was just at a jobsite where one of the contractors had just received a TWO-HUNDRED DOLLAR per month insurance premium increase, from seven (hundred dollars) to over $1,000 per month for a family of 4, with a high $5,000 deductible.
That's $12,000+ per year for insurance, with you having to ante up the first $5,000 in medical costs; with premiums that will of course SKYROCKET if you ever exceed the deductible in a year (and actually need health care for your family) !!!!!!

WHAT PLANET is Barack Obama on ???

He was elected because HEALTH CARE was IN CRISIS in 2008, and ALREADY in 2010, BEFORE his "MANDATES" ATROCITY of a bill goes through, Health Care costs are ALREADY 20% WORSE than they were back in 2008, when it was already a major crisis / campaign issue to begin with !!

No, really, are Mr. Obama's closest aides and "advisors" trying to SPIN this NIGHTMARE for American families (in an economy where the above contractor's workers are getting less than 30 hours per week, month after month) as a "Success" for him ?

As "something to BRAG about" ??
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repuglycon
Desert Bird
03:38 PM on 03/05/2010
Its a Win-Win-Win
03:29 PM on 03/05/2010
We need health reform desperately, but not this bill.

Oboma beyrayed us this should be his Waterloo.

Don’t be fooled into allowing the underlying 2700 pages bill, which the healthcare industry crafted, which will allow them to steal at will from us and the US Treasury, to become law.

It will force us to purchase questionable insurance to purchase overpriced care.

The health care industry reported paying $600,000,000. so far for this bill.

What other deals and payoffs have been made?

Real Public Option reforms which would save lives and save money have been kept out of the debate by the President, Democrats, and Republicans, did anyone commit crimes doing it?

Eliot Spitzer should be put in charge of a federal squad of Untouchables to perform hard nosed audits and investigations of Wall Street and Washington which will ascertain what roll criminal activity has had and is having in the destructive behavior which has decimated individual wealth, political fairness, and the United States Treasury.

All 300 million people in the US could receive free public option health care, delivered from government VA system styled hospitals, paid for with sales tax revenues instead of insurance premiums, and it would save $1trillion dollars every year from the $2.6trillion spent last year.

Everyone choosing government, sales tax funded care, could have it free with no restrictions primary, inpatient, outpatient, long-term, mental, ophthalmology and dentistry including medications.

Either Free Public Option or Private Purchase Private Care options for everyone to choose from.
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Changeizgood
02:15 PM on 03/10/2010
When the congress was debating from both parties, and hd input from the doctors who told them their law suits were frivolous. So President Obama put in tort reform for frivolous law suits to make the person doing it, would have to pay cost of court if found frivolous, ergo the need for intermediate counciling on the risk or out of court settlement. it also give the doctor who may have done harm to make amends directly to the patient, instead of paying the insurance companies a third for covering them. The insurance companies hiked the doctor's insurance and hospitals, they are reaming them in cost also.

So in the hearings the bi-paritcian(Snow) asked what percentages of cost went to care and doctors?
What cost went to insurance companies?
They found 30% of every dollar from tax payers went to cover staffing(paper pushing denying CEO's who deny care for bonuses received annually.

That's almost a 1/3 to tell US NO or deny care and doesn't circulate back into the system for buying of more technological equipment like MRI's or mammograms, new cancer/diabetes drugs. Just goes to some yacht or new McMansion while people are dying.

They suggested a market where those slipping through the cracks, pre-existing conditions, and inaffordability, would have a safety besides "die quickly.

The insurers are the frauds, they don't want to pay out after years of building their mammoth companies to what they are today, they kick the sick to the curb.
02:44 PM on 03/05/2010
Obama and the Democrat Congressional "Leadership" started with an overall weak approach on the HCR initiative and proceeded to then give away (strip) ALL of the remaining strong points, such as prescription drug re-importation, public option, removing anti-trust exemption for health insurance companies,and permitting States to design and implement their own State-wide health insurance plans including single-payer, "Medicare for All" plans. That's a 100% guaranteed path to lose-lose politics.
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Dustee
R-U Caught Up in all of those Republican LIES?
03:02 PM on 03/05/2010
You taught well by Fox.
02:19 PM on 03/05/2010
Unfortunately, I think Brody's analysis is correct but the problem is with Democrats trying to do "too much" by half. Obama endlessly says "we are here to do difficult tasks" but he rejected single payer health care not because it was unsound but because it was "too difficult..." Rejecting the only known way to provide universal coverage efficiently, inevitably led to alternatives that look a lot like the Tower of Babel.

Mandating coverage is only the most glaring example of the ludicrous extremes that become necessary. Ever wonder why Medicare didn't force old people to buy private insurance? Because, back then, politicians were smart enough to know what would happen to them if they tried. Anything requiring universal participation is, almost by definition, a function of government. Forcing individuals to perform what is properly the role of government is not only suicidal, it's unworkable.

Ironically, by fearing the loss of corporate campaign donations, Democrats will instead lose their voters. All those ads Pharma promised to buy for Democrats will fall on the deaf ears of their enraged constituents. If anything like the current legislation is passed, I believe it will lead to an electoral bloodbath in the fall and subsequent repeal in 2011. If that happens, we won't have wait "another generation" for health care reform, as supporters predict -- we will wait forever. The only way out of the box they've built is to do what they should have done from the beginning: pass single payer.
06:24 PM on 03/05/2010
< Obama endlessly says "we are here to do difficult tasks" but he rejected single payer health care not because it was unsound but because it was "too difficult..." >

NO... Mr. Obama did NOT _reject_ Single Payer (much less Public Option) because they were "TOO DIFFICULT"....

...he REJECTED those genuine "health care REFORM" options, because he has STACKED his presidency with RADICAL RIGHT-WING REPUBLICAN BANKERS, like TIMMY GEITHNER & BEN BERNANKE, and with so-called "Democrat" banksters
("D.I.N.O.s" Democrat In Name Only)
like RAHM EMANUEL and LAWRENCE SUMMERS, who are ALSO RADICAL RIGHT WING REPUBLICAN, "tax CUTS for WEALTHY, DEREGULATE financial markets" BANKSTERS, who are only POSING as "Democrats"

Mr. Obama is Getting ALL of his political "advice" from people who LOVE TO PILE DEBT on American consumers and government (taxpayers), because the flip-side of "RED INK" DEBT & decits, is INTEREST PAYMENTS to banks, which are bankers PROFITS.

This was NOT a PASSIVE SABOTAGE on Obama's part.. he HELPED first MAX BAUCUS,
then BEN NELSON,
then the despised JOE LIEBERMAN __SABOTAGE__ the Public Option all through 2009, because Rahm Emanuel told him -
- "We'll get MILLIONS in CAMPAIGN DONATIONS from Big Pharma, Big HMOs, and Big Insurance if you help the Senate SABOTAGE real reform."
05:29 PM on 03/12/2010
I was merely pointing out our President's inconsistency in, on the one hand, claiming difficult tasks to be the legitimate purpose of governance and, on the other, dismissing the only practical forms of real health care as being, let's say, too purposeful.

I'm not sure what you mean to imply by saying he has "stacked" his presidency. Presidents select people whose judgments they trust and who they believe can carry out their desires. I mention this only because there is a deluded willingness on the part of some to blame not Obama but his advisers for the administration's anti-progressive policies. This is not only naive but demeaning both to Obama and the scale of his apparent deception. These may not be the policies he campaign on but they werent' forced on him by others.

I think it's pretty clear at this point that neither party represents the desires of a majority of the electorate. Last January something like 63% of the population supported single payer but we were told it couldn't be done. We couldn't have a public option, either, because there weren't 60 Senate votes under normal procedures. And we can't have it now, operating under extraordinary procedures, because suddenly there aren't even 50 Senate votes.

If Congress won't give us something that 63% of us wanted, how secure are more fundamental rights? How safe is anything?
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01:57 PM on 03/05/2010
"they want to shove big government programs down the throats of Americans"

Psychoanalysis could tell us why the Republicans are so obsessed with this talking point.
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01:55 PM on 03/05/2010
"but honestly, all of us will have no clue"

If you work for CBN, then it is clear that you already have no clue.
Just consider the false doctrines, political and theological, that the network routinely peddles.
Did Pat Robertson receive a word of knowledge from the Creator concerning health care reform?
03:31 PM on 03/05/2010
Is this guy one of the Pat Robertson crowd? No wonder he talks such nonsense with authority.
01:52 PM on 03/05/2010
Dems could turn this into a positive by passing a bill that includes something that can excite the progressive left of the party - a robust public option for instance.

Brody makes too big a deal out of the use of reconciliation - simply majority rules which is the way should be in most instances.

The right-wing will be yelling and screaming no matter what. If Obama and the Dems are willing to take some stands, not just on healthcare but other things like financial reform, climate change, jobs, etc. I will stand there with them. Also, I'd be more willing to attend town halls and stand up to the racist, hysterical, loud mouths.
01:31 PM on 03/05/2010
I worked in health care for 25 years, and my experience led me to strongly support efforts to develop a universal health care program in the USA. A recent personal experience has strengthened my resolve to support this legislation.

In January, I had foot surgery at a Holland, Michigan, outpatient surgery center. I was in and out of the center in three hours, but the center billed Medicare more than $26,000 for its services. This amount does not include the surgeon’s fees, anesthesiology or medical equipment. Of course, Medicare didn't pay that amount - they paid the center $2,084, which seems about right for the services provided. Would I have been responsible for paying this exorbitant charge if it had been denied by Medicare?

I wonder, based on my sister’s similar experience recently. She went to an urgent care center for her son's school athletic exam. The center advertised $45 for the exam, but when she went to pay, the center told her they would bill her insurance. Rather than $45, the center billed her insurance $150. In her case, the insurance denied the charge and she had to pay the $150 rather than $45 as she had been originally quoted.

Medical costs need controls. I don't see how this will be accomplished without universal health care. Please support our President in his efforts to pass some kind of bill to protect the public’s right to affordable health care.
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Dustee
R-U Caught Up in all of those Republican LIES?
01:38 PM on 03/05/2010
(fanned)
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MegWe
06:29 PM on 03/05/2010
Fanned again.
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lovethesinner
Yes, WE did.
01:17 PM on 03/05/2010
"At that point, November 2010 could look like me in a bathing suit. Downright nasty."

(in the background we hear)
"Paging Pastor Haggert... Paging Senator Larry Craig... Paging Representative Mark Foley... please come to the courtesy phone in the lobby"

I wonder if you could sum up the whole conservative movement as a denial of human nature and personal problems with self-acceptance?
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Dustee
R-U Caught Up in all of those Republican LIES?
01:35 PM on 03/05/2010
Glad you got your message through.

(fanned)
12:44 PM on 03/05/2010
The Health Bill passed in the senate with 60 votes! Reconciliation will not be used to pass the Health Bill but to make some adjustments. Time for everybody to realize that. 60 to 40 is a healthy majority.

The amount of disinformation and outright lies that have been associated with this bill is astounding. Is this the best that could be done? Given the current political situation with one party dedicated to insuring that nothing gets passed, it probably is the best we could have hoped for. Hopefully, some years in the future, we can build on this and create a better health care bill for all Americans.
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S E Martin
03:32 PM on 03/05/2010
Thankfully, in all honesty, most Americans don't follow politics on a day-to-day basis.

Most of them will only hear the news when it passes, and either be happy or angry.

Fox News likes to brag about its viewership, but it's still only a very, very small percentage of the country who watches it religiously (and I do mean religiously!) The Fox News crowd would never support anything a Democrat does regardless.

The rest of the people either don't care or will be happy to hear of its passage.
12:12 PM on 03/05/2010
How did Obama let the Dems create this disaster of a bill? 2700 pages with no cost controls.
01:21 PM on 03/05/2010
???

This Bill will reduce the deficit over a ten year period. That is what i call COST CONTROLS.

Herein is the problem -- The Obama Administration has done a poor job EXPLAINING this Bill.

The positive side is that the GOP knows that there are many tangible things that will go into effect immediately after the Bill's passage, such as allowing parents to carry their children on their insurance through the age of 27, and immediately allowing those with pre-existing conditions to obtain coverage -- which the American people will like.

If passage would be so bad for the Dems, trust me, the GOP would be fervently ROOTING for this Bill.
08:47 AM on 03/05/2010
Is this another fear tactic? So, Do nothing for fear of... or Do something for fear of....? So, America is to just say No, do nothing and that is the Right thing to do? Republicans have it right? The previous administration had it right? So, was this article written to appeal to the angry and the ignorant? or the Egotistical Rich? or Health insurers? Hmmm Wasn't this what they said about Civil Rights? Hmmm Pass Health Care Reform. I'm not scared. Armageddon is coming regardless, so it is written. We just don't know when, Man has been predicting and re-predicting it's coming for years. God knows when, No one knows the time or the hour when it will occur. People need to quit using this as a fear tactic. God does not like to be mocked.