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David C. Wilson
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Blog Entries by David C. Wilson

The Elephant in the Exit Poll Results: Most White Women Supported Romney

(89) Comments | Posted November 8, 2012 | 2:39 PM

I think Nate Silver deserves a lot of credit for being one of the few "poll readers" willing to forecast a numeric probability of Obama's win before Election Day even started, and getting darn close. However, I'll withhold credit from many popular analysts who are ignoring the significant role race...

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The Racial Bias in Dismissing Blacks Voters' Support for Obama

(110) Comments | Posted October 26, 2012 | 10:13 AM

Reactions to Colin Powell's endorsement of President Barack Obama for a second term have speculated that the two men's shared race is the explanation. While the notion that Powell is not being objective in his decision is reckless on the surface, let's simply assume that it is true....

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Red Flag: Sympathy for Weak Presidential Candidates

(2) Comments | Posted October 23, 2012 | 4:17 PM

Can anyone tell me Mitt Romney's foreign policy doctrine? You'd better answer quickly before Gov. Romney decides to change it. Let me help you out, because we now know the answer is "anything Obama would do, Romney would do... but better" (Question to self: Can you actually tighten "Crippling sanctions?").

...
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Public Opinion on Voter ID Laws: Strong Support, Shaky Foundation

(41) Comments | Posted July 18, 2012 | 4:06 PM

The latest public opinion poll I've conducted with colleagues at the University of Delaware's Center for Political Communication (CPC) finds that Americans strongly support voter identification laws--those which require individuals to show government issued identification when they vote.

But we also find that support for the laws...

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Latest Polls Show a Close Race, But Where Is the Romney Effect?

(421) Comments | Posted June 21, 2012 | 1:04 PM

The headline from the most recent AP-Gfk Poll (June 2012), "Obama loses advantage over Romney as economic anxieties increase," doesn't tell the full story about what's NOT happening with public opinion. My read of the data shows that despite economic concerns the public has shown little...

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Mayweather's Racial Resentment Reflects America's Thinking About Race

(170) Comments | Posted February 15, 2012 | 9:53 AM

This week, professional boxer Floyd Mayweather Jr., tweeted on the success of New York Knicks point guard Jeremy Lin, proclaiming "Jeremy Lin is a good player but all the hype is because he's Asian. Black players do what he does every night and don't get the same praise."...

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Why Republicans Support Government Mandates

(11) Comments | Posted January 8, 2012 | 1:17 PM

Mitt Romney's Iowa victory and his subsequent polling numbers in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida suggest that likely Republican voters have softened their concerns over the Massachusetts health care legislation (a.k.a., "Romneycare") he signed into law.

Romney has been able to make the case that he has no problem...

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What Did the Final Polls in Iowa Tell Us?

(3) Comments | Posted January 4, 2012 | 5:11 PM

With the coming tsunami of 2012 election season polls, it's always good to play Monday morning (or Wednesday afternoon) quarterback.

My read of the data suggests there were many dynamics in the Iowa electorate not being captured by polls taken in the final week before caucus night. Mitt Romney,...

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"Run Hillary Run!" and the Search for Democratic Opposition to Obama

(39) Comments | Posted October 29, 2011 | 9:47 AM

There have been several stories which suggest that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton should be the Democratic nominee for president in 2012. More curiously, there are stories which imply she could win a hypothetical Democratic primary versus Barack Obama, or general election versus nearly...

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Are Republicans in Love with Romney, or Is He Just a Good Bet?

(139) Comments | Posted October 20, 2011 | 10:36 PM

While former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has been a staple in GOP presidential campaigns for at least the past five years he has yet to sway a majority of Republican that he's "the one" for them. On at least three indicators of candidate preference among self-reported Republicans Romney's...

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Delaware's African American Voters Changed the Political Map

(3) Comments | Posted September 8, 2011 | 9:02 PM

With the 24 hour news cycle it's easy to understand why many stories are forgotten and some are never told. This is especially true with regard to poll results. Almost every politico and news channel will cite a set of poll findings to lead or support a narrative, but they...

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ESPN's Misleading Poll Results on Lebron James

(55) Comments | Posted May 28, 2011 | 11:38 PM

Polls are typically associated with political issues, candidates, and public behaviors, but there's also "politics" associated with reporting poll results. If there's one thing the public should denounce it's bad poll reporting because it leads to false information, a potentially false consensus, and lower trust in the source of the...

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It's the Military, Stupid! Demeaning Service Members for Political Gain

(55) Comments | Posted December 1, 2010 | 11:39 AM

I am a professor of political science and international relations, but I'm also a veteran of two wars (Desert Storm and Iraqi Freedom) with 20 years of service in the Army. Over the course of my service I reviewed tens of thousands of military personnel files, and at least 25...

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Why Christine O'Donnell Lost... A Long Time Ago

(12) Comments | Posted November 3, 2010 | 2:26 PM

The pundits who thought Delaware Senate Republican candidate Christine O'Donnell was ever doing well among the state's electorate were sadly mistaken from the jump. Not only did she performed less than admirably in her debate performances, she mishandled her media relations, fought the state and national Republican Party organizations, and...

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The AP-KN Poll Headline on Obama Ignores the Best Data

(4) Comments | Posted October 31, 2010 | 1:32 PM

I am among the strongest advocates of polling, but, I'm dismayed by shallow headlines that lead what might actually be pretty interesting work. So, in line with the "restoring sanity" theme for the weekend, I thought I'd try to bring some perspective on how polls can offer much more "reality"...

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O'Donnell Closes Gap, or Coons up Big? The Dirt in Poll Details

(127) Comments | Posted October 29, 2010 | 10:13 PM

Over the past 48 hours, two competing polls in Delaware have provided confusing information to the state's electorate and the nation in general. One telephone poll of 797 likely Delaware voters, conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU), October 20 - 26, shows Democrat Chris Coons with...

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Juan Williams' Teachable Moment: He Simply Didn't Accept That He Is Prejudiced

(67) Comments | Posted October 24, 2010 | 2:54 PM

In the aftermath of Juan Williams' firing from his NPR contract, many public commentators have taken sides on whether he should have been allowed to express his personal sentiments about Muslims, or been fired.

Speaking to Fox News' Bill O'Reily, Williams said the following, "Look, Bill, I'm...

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Have You Seen it? O'Donnell's Not a Witch...But the Commercial Doesn't Say That

(59) Comments | Posted October 5, 2010 | 8:35 AM

The first sentence of the first commercial for the Republican candidate for Delaware's U.S. Senate says, "I'm not a witch." And then the rest of the commercial, including O'Donnell's appearance, the background music, and the setting all fail to get the "witch" thing out of our minds.

...
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The Latest WSJ/NBC News Poll: 10 Headlines the Media Will Ignore

(38) Comments | Posted September 30, 2010 | 4:53 PM

This week's NBC New/Wall Street Journal Survey of 1,000 adults (margin of error +-3.1%) provides some great data for political conversation. However, given the favored narrative about how bad things are in America, you're unlikely to see some of the more eyebrow-raising nuggets in the data.

Here are...

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Obama Dominates Republicans in Polls

(76) Comments | Posted September 30, 2010 | 3:56 PM

After last week's CNN poll highlighting President Obama's "all-time" lowest job approval the public was bombarded with stories and headlines about how poorly the president was performing.

Since then, many polls have shown the President's approval rating as anywhere from 3% to 6% points higher; all...

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