Polls are typically associated with political issues, candidates, and public behaviors, but there's also "politics" associated with reporting poll results. If there's one thing the public should denounce it's bad poll reporting because it leads to false information, a potentially false consensus, and lower trust in the source of the information.
Without question, ESPN's job is to entertain, not produce good scientific polling; but, their recent poll on the NBA and LeBron James is just plain bulls!@#t. The article and the lack of details about the poll present a classic example of biased reporting, polling on the cheap, and making what scientists call a Type I error (a.k.a., false-positive, or saying "I found something" when it's not really there).
According to the report, ESPN conducts a monthly telephone survey gauging topics like favorite NBA player, favorite overall athlete, and interest in the league. The main finding reads: "50% fewer respondents said James was their favorite NBA player." This entire lead rests on the following fact: LeBron James popularity fell from 9% (April 2010) to 4.5% (May 2011). The ESPN poll also found that James' "overall athlete" favorability dropped roughly 2 points, from 3.6% to 1.8%.
The 50% decline is true, but ...really? Are they kidding? That's not a drop, it's a bobble.
Indeed, the article characterizes the poll as unscientific (it never states why), but it appears that interviewers only called phone numbers in the Cleveland, New York, New Jersey, Boston, and Chicago areas. Yet, I'm skeptical mostly because other sources of public opinion suggest the exact opposite of the ESPN findings. Let's count the ways.
First, after trailing only Kobe Bryant in jersey sales over the past two seasons, this season James had the top selling jersey in the league.
Second, in 2011 James earned the 3rd most NBA All-Star fan votes behind Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard; James' Miami Heat teammate Dwayne Wade earned the 4th most votes. In 2010 James was the 2nd highest vote getter, and Wade was 3rd. These numbers do not suggest a serious drop-off in support for James or Wade, or the Miami Heat. In fact, while Bryant and Howard got more votes than James in 2011, their overall numbers actually decreased, albeit not at the same rate as James' and Wades'.
Third, a panel of 119 sportswriters and broadcasters throughout the United States and Canada made James the only unanimous first team All-NBA member. Fourth, NBA coaches voted James first team All-NBA Defense. There are many more stats on James relative to other NBA players that further suggest his brand is still strong.
These aggregates levels of support from NBA fans, media, and coaches suggest that James is both well-liked and well-respected. It's probably true that James is not as popular as he was in the past, but it that does not mean that he is not still popular and held in high regard. The poll report fails to make this clear.
A few more shots at the ESPN poll are warranted. Since ESPN's polls have no stated margin of error--likely because they are UNSCIENTIFIC--then one can't call the aforementioned 4.5 and 1.8 point changes in James' numbers meaningful (i.e., "statistically significant"). Why would ESPN (or the readers of the article) think the numbers are worthy of attention? Three words come to mind: big, pretty, numbers.
While the 2011 survey (N=6,007) is based on 1,996 fewer respondents than the 2010 survey (N=8,003), sample size alone is not the key to the accuracy of survey data, rather readers should ask whether the poll contacted a random sample of individuals (i.e., representative of the population of interest). Random sampling helps to minimize the bias in selecting survey respondents. So, regardless of how many persons are interviewed unscientific polls are not only inaccurate, they are not comparable.
The ESPN article makes the same mistake that most "reporters" make when discussing polling, they assume that any numbers they collected through polling have merit. You might Google/Bing "Literary Digest Poll" just in case you think this is a new issue.
Unfortunately for ESPN, the poll results in the article raise far more questions about their methods than they answer about James' popularity. We don't know the population the poll targeted, the response rate for the poll, the list of questions that were asked or how they were worded, the topline results for the entire list of questions, or even the dates of data collection. For all we know, ESPN is simply fudging their numbers to sell an idea (some might call this propaganda depending on the moment in World History).
In essence, ESPN is polling on the cheap; claiming they are doing research without doing "good research." Hell, the article doesn't event tell us "who" is the most favored athlete or NBA player.
The LeBron James as villain narrative gives the impression that ESPN is sticking to the entertainment game, rather than the good reporting game. This is a legitimate approach to take, but I'm going to call ESPN on its poll, mainly because there is enough "hate" and "dislike" in the public today, and we don't need ESPN to promote more of it through misleading poll findings.
This whole ESPN article reeks of ENTERTAINMENT (E) and PROGRAMMING (P), and not SPORTS (S); and the NETWORK (N) could do a lot better.
Follow David C. Wilson on Twitter: www.twitter.com/dcwilsonphd
I don't think the top selling jersey is an indicator of who the most popular player in any sport is. It is more of an indicator of whose jersey is most popular during the period cover and it only applies to jersey buying individuals not tot he entire fan base of a sport.
If All Star votes are an indication of a player's popularity then there's always Yao Ming who was apparently the most popular center at times and the most popular overall at at times.
My money is on Le Bron.... Michael Jordan was right...... "if you want to be "the best" you "beat" the best..... you don't "collude" with them...
As far as ESPN is concerned..... four words..... "Mike Leach" "Craig James". "nuff said.
If you don't think James is the most reviled figure in the game, you may as well trot out your analysis suggesting the unpopularity of OJ is a mirage as well.
James is popular in Miami, and it took "The Decision" to actually turn the Mavs into "America's Team". James is popular nationwide in the same way Barry Bonds was popular outside the Bay area...not at all.
"He's the first player to score 3 points at the age of 19, Jordan didn't even have 3 points in the NBA at 19, He's well on his way to passing all the NBA greats." (Being Sarcastic)
**ESPN has been making there own records and polls for years, that's why I rather to listen to local sports reporters or people not trying to cash in on the ESPN hype machine
Did Mr James quit on the Cavs in the Boston playoffs.
The answer is of course yes - but suck-ups like ESPN and other reporters ingnored the truth about him.
No suspension - not even a hint of one.
You my friend are an enabler like the rest - James leaving is one thing quiting on your coach, teammates and your city is quite another.
As stupid as the decision was - I lost all respect for his lack of play!
I don't care for him one way or the other, but there are few things I hate more than bitter sports fans who are unreasonably mad at some athlete because they feel personally slighted. Let it go.
As a free agent he can go anywhere he wants - period.
The "decision" I thought was a bad idea - but it was his choice.
Quiting is quite another story -
He quit - anyone who is honest knows that - and that is what I have against him.
I freely admit he was fun to watch while he was here - but he lost me by his play on the court.
I have seen many a player come and go including two Cy Young award winners.
However I have never seen one of local players quit - James did - end of story!
Your argument is that LeBron's favoritism didn't drop. Your proof is that his jersey sales are tops in the league, passing Kobe.
Fun fact - Kobe's jersey didn't change from last year to this year. No one needs to buy a new one. People who previously bought a LeBron jersey needto buy a new one because he's on a new team. This data is unpersuasive for your argument that his favoritism hasn't dropped.
Your other proof - NBA all-star voting, NBA all-whatever team - proves LeBron's TALENT, not FAVORITISM. Sure, LeBron is talented - arguably the best in the league. That doesn't mean he is going to be everyone's favorite player. Remember, Kobe lost a lot of popularity after he was accused in Colorado. He was still a superstar player (one of the most talented in the league), but he wasn't liked. There are a lot of talented athletes that aren't liked. I'm thinking Jeter and A-Rod - very talented, but on the Yankees so a lot of people hate them. Just because they each have made several All-Star teams doesn't mean that people like them - it means they are talented.
Your entire article reeks of equating "talent" with "favorite." Your article has a point if - and only if - people's favorite player must be the most talented player in the sport at the time. Because that isn't true, your article ripping ESPN is no better than the original ESPN article.
For one thing, I agree that All-Star votes do not necessarily mean that the player is liked or even a favorite player. When a fan is asked to vote for who they think is the best player, a lot of fans will go for their personal favorite, but many will grit their teeth and vote for the most talented, regardless of team loyalty and personal dislike. The fact that James came in third and not second or first says, I think, a great deal about how the fans feel about him personally, when the coaches and writers unanimously voted him in. Fans as a group are, for better or worse, going to be more biased by their personal feelings. I also fail to see how dropping from second to third is supposed to prove that he didn't drop in popularity.
I think at best it can be argued that James isn't substantially more or less a "favorite" this year than last year, that his talent has gained him as many fans as his grandstanding has lost him.
The point of the article is that James may be "less popular" but it's not by much, and the poll is undoubtedly at odds with all other data (well, except..what's in you heart). The overwhelming majority of the public LIKE LeBron James and I think that makes those who don't like him just a tad bit annoyed. Call it what you want, but my article is based on more than one source of data, ESPN's is not; don't get made at the messenger.
Seriously, though, is this your first time on ESPN?
Its hard for a player to get out of the "who does he think he is" zone . Only rings will get him out of that.
Eventually if he keeps being himself, people will stop h8ing and see the guy for what he really is. The more players decide who they want to play with and where, the more h8 will surface. Totally ignoring the fact that these guys are putting out an excellent product and doing what the sport is supposed to do. Entertain.
I've never seen such off base h8red for a player.
Unbelievable work ethic (do you think his jumper is falling more just because?)
His basketball IQ is incredibly high ( Magic Johnson's words not mine)
Business savvy and is personally in control of his brand.
Saves and invest his money very wisely ( he gets advice from his friend Warren Buffett)
Has never been in trouble
You never see wild stories of him partying to hard even though his at the age and in the city to do so.
Charitable.
So whats really goin on? What's the actual reason that you h8 the dude so much?
Could your reason really be bigger than the list of reasons I just gave you to like him?