Changes to the primary season calendar, campaign finance laws, and proportional delegate allocation have completely upended the Republican presidential primaries in comparison to previous years.
People have compared the current race to the Democratic primaries in 2008, which saw Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama battle it out state by state through June. But there were two key differences in the Obama-Clinton race: first, it was a two-candidate race for most of the primary season, with both Clinton and Obama having strong organizations and fundraising; second, the role of the superdelegates -- various elected officials and party insiders -- in the Democratic primary in putting Obama over the top to secure the nomination.
In the current Republican race, there are four candidates competing for delegates. Mitt Romney benefits from having the anti-Romney vote split between Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, so that Republican voters can't coalesce around one candidate to defeat him. The Romney campaign does have considerable organizational and financial advantages compared to their opponents. This means that they have been able to get on ballots, get out their voters, and carpet bomb their opponents on the airwaves with negative advertising. These have made the difference in several races -- i.e. Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Virginia.
There were no superdelegate equivalents in the Republican race in 2008 and 2012. If there were, individual endorsements from Republican elected officials and insiders would probably have Mitt Romney comfortably ahead on his way to securing the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the party's nomination in the current race. The prolonged and often negative nature of the primary campaign has progressively taken its toll on Mitt Romney's favorability ratings.
But the reality from the Romney campaign perspective is it's in their interest to have a divided field, even if it results in a longer and bruising primary season. The alternate scenario would be if Newt Gingrich were to drop out of the race -- as Rick Santorum supporters called for after Super Tuesday - it's likely a good part of his voters would go to Santorum. Santorum could then consolidate the anti-Romney vote in the remaining races. Gingrich's absence on the ballot could have made all the difference for Santorum in tight races in Michigan and Ohio.
If Santorum had won both of those states, his political momentum going into the races ahead in the month of March would have been enormous. For Romney, the media narrative about his inability to close the deal with conservative voters would be even more challenging than it is already, despite significantly outspending his opponents. To paraphrase the classic Beatles song, money can't buy him love.
From the Democratic perspective, it is in their interest to see the GOP circular firing squad continue. Vice President Joe Biden recently said he hoped the Republican candidates would have another twenty debates. The Republican candidates' attack ads, gaffes and soundbites have given Democrats an ample supply of source material for their own attack ads and talking points.
Given those two options, the Romney campaign would obviously prefer the lesser of evils, which keeps the opposition divided and lets them continue to rack up a delegate lead. But this slash-and-burn road to the nomination could come at a very high cost to Romney's favorability ratings for the general election. The question is can they repair the damage in time between the end of the primary season and November?
Follow David de Sola on Twitter: www.twitter.com/daviddesola
 |
 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
Instead, the republicans and their Clinton derangement syndrome have caused women to actually come running back to the democratic party over reproductive rights issues.
you say that like it's the bread and butter of politics. Business as usual.
But in many parts of the world, this makes the oldest democracy look like it's on the verge of civil war. If it's ok to "carpet bomb ...with negative ads" your own allies, how do you treat your opponents?
I'm thinking about G.W. Bush's idea that Iraqis would greet Americans with open arms, throwing flowers in the streets, grateful for their liberation.
What's Romney going to dream about when he is voted into the oval office? 'I did it my way'?
And you can continue a campaign if you lose 36% to 37%. You can talk about the frontrunner's high negatives. But if the numbers are 51% to 49%, it gets harder, because there is nowhere for the votes to come from. If it WERE a two-person race, the massive money bomb would be more effective in driving votes away from the anti-Romney. And if they had a bad week, Romney would easily build enough momentum to win.
But Gingrich wins SC and loses big in Florida, in a two-person race, that would have ended the primary. But instead, Santorum comes to the forefront, the new hope of the anti-Romney forces.
I think Romney has actually been substantially harmed by the large field.
If Romney were running on his own record, where he is trying to sell his own achievements, yes, the divided field would work to his advantage. But he has been running on the ability to money bomb with negative ads any competitor out of the race.
But negative ads just drive people away from the target, not to the candidate who pushed the ad.
And so, for months, Romney has been spending millions on negative ads that drove voters from one anti-Romney candidate to another.
Also, a significant amount of the anti-Romney vote is actually niche voters. The Ron Paul vote is 10-15% that probably just would not have shown up if he were not there. For months, Santorum attracted the niche voter for whom social issues were the Only Issue. And so he hovered around 15% for a while.
In a two person race, those 15% candidates would have had to drop out. But instead, 15% here, and 15% there, it adds up to real percentages.
According to the Klown Kar Kavalcade, nobody but the person speaking could possibly govern effectively, even tho anybody running would be better than the current Pres.
Sow the wind. Reap the whirlwind