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David Elliott

David Elliott

Posted: October 7, 2009 03:28 PM

As Obama Scores an Iran Breakthrough, Congress Fumbles

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As the pressure built early last week for President Obama to forgo diplomacy with Iran in favor of imposing new sanctions, Iran's top opposition leader posed a piercing question to the world. "Which one of [Iran's leaders] can be expected to care about the agony their behavior imposes on people?" Mir-Hossein Mousavi asked. By belying the bankruptcy of the alternatives, his question underscored the importance of President Obama's diplomatic engagement with Iran.

The wisdom of this approach was reinforced again on Thursday, when the United States secured an agreement that will significantly reduce Iran's capability to produce a nuclear weapon. Even at this early stage, President Obama's diplomatic strategy has already achieved more positive results than the Bush administration's bellicose policy did in eight years. Yet by that evening, the U.S. Congress disregarded Mousavi's advice and Obama's diplomatic success, imposing new sanctions against Iran that, if anything, will only hurt the Iranian people.

Mousavi pointed out the obvious problem with most sanctions being proposed, saying they will "mostly hurt the poor" and will not help Iran's opposition. Indeed, it's even worse than Mousavi thinks. The sanctions Congress passed Thursday are a baby step toward imposing the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act (IRPSA), which would in all likelihood help the Ahmadinejad government.

IRPSA would expand unilateral sanctions and target companies exporting refined petroleum to Iran. The goal is to put pressure on Iran, but which "Iran" will we be hurting - the Iranian government or the Iranian people? Just like in the United States, Iran's poor, middle class, and elderly will bear the brunt of any gas price shock. Between its domestic production and smuggled petroleum, the ruling clergy and Revolutionary Guards will surely find a way to keep their gas tanks full and heat their homes. But if the sanctions really work, many of the very same Iranian people that members of Congress spoke so highly of this summer will be left out in the cold when winter hits.

An embargo on refined petroleum poses further problems. It would provide the excuse the Iranian government wants to eliminate burdensome petroleum subsidies and place the blame on the United States. Iran has to import roughly one third of its domestic gasoline consumption at market prices and then resell it at a subsidized price of about 40 cents per gallon. These subsidies cost the government of Iran a tremendous sum - between 10 and 20 percent of GDP, annually. For this reason, the Iranian government wants nothing more than to eliminate these subsidies, but it has been stymied repeatedly by popular opposition. Ironically, an embargo would enable them to eliminate these subsides, freeing up cash for the government to spend elsewhere, such as building more nuclear centrifuges or expanding the IRGC.

The Iranian people have already come out into the streets, risking everything, to protest against the government. If the west imposes sanctions because Iran refuses to halt its nuclear enrichment program, which has the overwhelming support of the Iranian people, who will the Iranians blame for the sanctions? Most will blame the United States, and the opposition will be put on the defensive. Rather than focusing solely on its demands for an end to the injustices being carried out and the restoration of the peoples' rights, the opposition will be forced to spend its time and energy proving its loyalty to the embattled nation.

Fortunately, some in Congress are now working on a better option. Rather than pushing for indiscriminate economic sanctions like IRPSA, they are pursuing the best path to pressuring the Iranian government: empowering the Iranian people to more effectively stand up for their rights and imposing targeted sanctions against Iranian government officials.

Taking the Iranian government on at its weakest point - human rights - these lawmakers will soon introduce legislation that sanctions Iranian government officials guilty of human rights abuses while eliminating roadblocks that undermine the development of a vibrant civil society in Iran. There are targeted sanctions the US and its allies can impose, such as freezing bank accounts, imposing travel bans on government officials and military commanders, and sanctioning companies that provide censorship technology to Iran. Iran's leaders will care a lot more when they discover they can't access their European bank accounts - like the $1.6 billion account Britain froze this summer - than they will if their own people suffer.

The plan will also help empower the Iranian people by ensuring that they have free and unfettered access to the Internet and communications tools, and by fostering greater cooperation between the peoples of America and Iran.

Just like June 12 and the weeks that followed changed our notions about the Iranian people, it's time for Congress to change its approach on Iran. It's time for Congress to stand with the Iranian people, not against them.

Follow David Elliott on Twitter: www.twitter.com/NIACouncil

 
 
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01:58 PM on 10/09/2009
Max Burns at asiapolicyreport.com spotlights the continued opposition in Iran to the illegitimate government. Obama would do well to keep them in mind as he deals with the gov.
09:59 AM on 10/08/2009
Did we expect our Israeli paid Congress to act differently? Israel will continue to exert pressure on Congress until the US finally attacks Iran - Just like Iraq.

American people continue leading their ‘American Dream’ lives while being led to their own destruction along a road paved with celebrity trivialities and banal stories of nothingness that passes for news in their country.

Never has it been more true the age old saying, “For those who do not learn history they are doomed to repeat it.”
09:03 AM on 10/08/2009
As we argue on our blog (theradix.net), the fundamental premises underlying the current argument for military strikes on Iran are deeply flawed. The assumption that Iran seeks nuclear weapons for anything other than defense and deterrence is fallacious, and therefore the conclusion that war is preferable to a nuclear-armed Iran is invalid. Moreover, the further assmption that war is the only way to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran is similarly unfounded - reducing their felt need for the deterrent of nuclear weapons could get us far down that path, and is certainly an option that must be tried before war.

In addition, there is no justification under international law for a preventative strike, and so we would be essentially relying upon Iran's "illegal" development of nuclear weapons, to justify our own "illegal" aggression, a far more serious violation of international law. Our last illegal war did much harm to our stature and our security, and so we ought to be rather wary before plunging into yet another one.

Gamma - The Radix.net
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
Khirad
07:48 AM on 10/08/2009
Good article. I just think it's still so sad that so many -- especially in congress (whom should know better, but whom I know better than to be that naïve about) -- need all this spelled out for them. The points expressed within this article were duh-worthy to me, and have been the source of much exasperation and eye-rolling in regards to the same old failed policies. While they're at it they need to also renounce ever supporting groups like MeK, PJAK (and other ethnic guerrilla groups) again. I'm not holding my breath. We seem to have a hard time getting out of our own way.
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06:51 PM on 10/07/2009
It's not that much of a breakthrough. Iran plans to continue working on the nuclear fuel cycle (which they have every right to do) while arranging to have some of their uranium enriched overseas so they can keep their medical reactor going in the meantime. They won't have their own fuel ready in time, and without it, they'll run out next year.

Pretending that this is a breakthrough, and hyping it as such just means that next year when they're still working on their own centrifuges (as they have said all along), we'll be able to make the (false) claim that Iran has broken its word. It hasn't. Iran views the demand that it forego nuclear research as illegitimate, and in this they are correct. They won't be give to the bullying. We wouldn't, either, if the positions were reversed.
06:26 PM on 10/07/2009
Unfortunately, Obama's election did nothing to change the number of neocons in Congress who are stuck in a "groupthink" like Bush and Cheney... Democrat and Republican... which also keeps the cash flowing, conveniently.


There's a term for Congress undermining the executive on foreign policy, isn't there?
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05:09 PM on 10/07/2009
Mr. Elliot, I appreciate your well stated article about the negative consequences of imposing more hardship on the average Iranian family.
I have previously stated in HuffPost:
"Our past political mistakes, and financial burdens we have placed on the Iranian people will not advance our long term American interests. To assist the Progressive movement in Iran, allow a greater exchange between the two societies, remove the burdens placed on the Iranian people by economic sanctions and restrictions. It is foolish to punish the people for our disagreements with their government. By removing the burden, we allow change in demographics of Iran toward a larger middle class; thus, it will shift the internal Iranian policy from Traditionalists toward the Progressives. We must support the Iranian Progressives. The Progressives are young, better educated and often the middle class segment of the Iranian population. Iranian Traditionalist (religious, very nationalistic, often poor, and under educated) voted for re-election of Ahmadinejad.
We will not advance our American interests, or the Progressive Iranian movement, by listening to those who advocate a more aggressive policy toward Iran."
06:02 PM on 10/07/2009
You are correct. One point about the sanctions are they will be ineffective all around. A few months after Ahmadinejad will say not only the sanctions didn't hurt, I out-smarted the Americans or I got prepared for what they did. Just look at the announcement he made yesterday, "thanks to US we moved away from dollar in all our oil sales and made huge profit over and beyond what we were expecting in the past 9 months". Considering slide of dollar he is correct. Lieberman, Bayh, and Kyl just want to feel good without caring this may even hurt US economy more than Iran as there are talk of OPEC moving away from dollar. Unfortunately, I was watching the senate committee meeting on this, one wonders who the senators represent, there was no alternate view, this looks like signed, sealed and delivered already!
04:44 PM on 10/07/2009
The refined petro sanction will not work or hurt for the following reasons. Currently Iran imports about 30~35% of gasoline; at least 10 percent of all Iran gasoline is smuggled to Pakistan and Afghanistan. At least 10% is wasted which leaves 10% actual shortfall. Two years ago Iran imposed a rationing of gasoline to reduce the utilization and they were successful to reduce it by 30 percent, a combination of rationing cutting smuggling etc. lowering kerosene output in favor of gasoline at the refineries without any additional imports from Venezuela covers whatever Iran needs. This will also give the government an opportunity to reduce subsidies on gasoline pricing. Iran stopped gasoline rationing because they didn't think they need it unless they were actually faced with a sanction. Iran has also stockpiled gasoline for this exact reason. Now look at the other side of the coin, oil price will jump up, gasoline prices will rise, Oil sanction will again be ok, just imagine next time Israel start shooting at someone how much pressure will be put on Arab states to cut the oil supply to the west.