Iraq: More Proof that the Baker-Hamilton Commission Was Right and the Bush-McCain Surge Was Wrong

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The surge is playing out exactly as the Baker-Hamilton Commission said it would. The "progess" in Iraq is ephemeral, if not cosmetic. As the Commission, also known as the Iraq Study Group, warned us:

"Sustained increases in U.S. troop levels would not solve the fundamental cause of violence in Iraq, which is the absence of national reconciliation. A senior American general told us that adding U.S. troops might temporarily help limit violence in a highly localized area. However, past experience indicates that the violence would simply rekindle as soon as U.S. forces are moved to another area. As another American general told us, if the Iraqi government does not make political progress, 'all the troops in the world will not provide security.' Meanwhile, America's military capacity is stretched thin: we do not have the troops or equipment to make a substantial, sustained increase in our troop presence. Increased deployments to Iraq would also necessarily hamper our ability to provide adequate resources for our efforts in Afghanistan or respond to crises around the world."

McCain, who rejected the recommendations of the the Iraq Study Group in favor of Bush's surge, continues to conflate the different warring factions into a single "enemy" acting on behalf of Iran. As his mouthpiece, Lindsay Graham, said yesterday on Fox News,

"I applaud the Maliki government for taking on Iranian-backed militia... The Iranians are killing Americans. They've aligned themselves with the Shia Mahdi army. The Badr Brigade is not the problem."

The Badr Brigade dominates Iraqi security forces so, in Graham's oversimplified view of things, the Badr Brigade is acting on behalf of the government, backed up by U.S. forces, so the Badr Brigade is not the problem.

And again, the Iraq Study Group offered a reality check which McCain and the mainstream media chose to ignore:

"The Badr Brigade is affiliated with the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), which is led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. The Badr Brigade has long-standing ties with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Many Badr members have become integrated into the Iraqi police, and others play policing roles in southern Iraqi cities. While wearing the uniform of the security services, Badr fighters have targeted Sunni Arab civilians. Badr fighters have also clashed with the Mahdi Army, particularly in southern Iraq."

What lessons have Graham, McCain, Graham, Bush and all the other neocon apologists learned after five years in Iraq? Almost none.

Comments

[sugarmoes]

solution:

end u.s. military involvement in iraq immediately

(oh but then the ensuing bloodbath will be blamed on the u.s.)

correct. but the bloodbath will happen sooner or later regardless of when we pull out

(oh but what about poooooor poooooor uhmurkuh's image?)

good point. have bush arrested. put him on trial in the hague for war crimes.

(oh but what good would that do bush was so honorable and dignified and reserved and just)

george w. bush is a war criminal. all that's left is the trial and the verdict and the sentencing. putting him on trial before the world will partially atone for what was done in iraq in our name and will be about the most we can do in the near future to repair the image of the u.s. worldwide.

(ohhhhh... but is it really that bad? is our image really thaaaaaaaaat bad and what does the great uhmurkuh care what everyone else thinks anyway?)

yes... it's that bad and worse and believe me... if steps are not taken to atone for this mass crime... you will care... very much... in the very near future... for the world will turn on us and not just in thought.

[cobraxus]

the problem is most Americans have no idea about any of this.they're either misinformed or disinformed or most likely uninformed.they get their news from Fox and Rush Limbaugh or (funny-uncle)Glenn Beck.Of course the MSM are no better.

[mgloraine]

All of this information and expert advice is irrelevant; McCain has already stated that he doesn't care what anybody else says - the surge is working and that's that! All of this recent violence is merely al Qaeda trying to manipulate the US election, further proof that the surge is working. Those two Americans who got killed in the Green Zone last week? Further proof that the surge is working.

Fixed ideas, pat answers, and prejudice are a lot more expedient than actually thinking about things before voicing an opinion. Absolute certainty means never having to say "I was wrong".

[Koreboomer]

NYTimes Frank Rich put it best when he wrote that if the surge is working, then why are
American troops stuck in Iraq?


Ever notice when "surge" supporters keep talking about what a great idea it was and is the reason there's less violence, they never mention (1) the Sunni fighters who used to attack US forces, who are now (paid by US $$) fighting al Quaida...OR (2) the al Sadr ceasefire that had been in effect since mid 2007 that resulted in a sharp decline in sectarian murders in Baghdad?

All three together are why, until the recent Sadr militia and Iraqi govt. fighting, the carnage has declined.

[LeftRight]

Don't forget two more points which have had a HUGE influence:

1) there are MILLIONS of Iraqi civilians who are currently refugees in other countries. None of them are here, because we don't want ANY immigration that's not Mexican!

2) of those who are still in Iraq, most now live in homogeneous neighborhoods, which makes them less likely to kill someone from an opposite sect, since you've got to search him out!

[rroy]

I find it dificult to comprehend why world leaders do what they do! I get the feeling that between 50 and 100 years from now-if there is still such a thing as a "civlized world"-a 22nd century historian like a neo Barbara Tuchman will write volumes that point out the insane conflicts and blunders of the"Civilized World"leaders of the early 21st century.
I imagine historical writings will point out things like Vietnam,the U.S.S.R.'s invasion of Afghanastan,The invasion of Iraq,the Palestine /Isreal Conflict,and how,in the final analysis, utterly
stupid,costly, and pointless such events were.
I think she shed light on the fultility of early 20th century conflicts,and it remains for her successor to do the same about the 21st.
The,to me ,obvious question will be;"will all of the research and documentation do anything to improve the madness of human behavior?".
Judging from past experience,the obvious answer is"NO!!!"

[Ron]

The administrations continous failures and failure to admit they are wrong, show the amount of contempt they have for the american people and this country, and the troops. They ,no matter what happens or report shows they're losing, they will never admit it and take responsibility for it. McCain just another war monger pushing the policies that have already shown they won't work,(except for the corporations and profiteers) and couldn't care to much as they watch are troops get picked off, and this country's economic future is damaged. The only surge that will work is the american people surging to vote this disasterous group out of power, before they expand the conflicts even more. They hang their hat on keywords and phrases (Democracy and freedom etc.) to trick alot of people about the real reasons the invaded an innocent country. We should have $1 gallon gasoline, not $3-4 a gallon. Thats the surge thats working that they are talking about, the surge in profits made on the war.

[TakeNoNeoConPrisoners]

The obvious McBush conclusion:

"My friends, we need a second surge to quell the violence in Iraq and provide the Malicki gov't time to resolve the issues. Please be patient. We have another 95 years to go. Thank you and vote for McInsane and McBush for president."

[ApolloSpeaks]

MCCAIN'S CONFLATION

Iran is Global Enemy Number One in the "war on terror" and is responsible for much of the destabilizing violence plaguing Iraq. This is incontestably proved by their simultaneous support-mentioned by Federer-of two warring Shiite factions: the Mahdi Army and Bader Corps; and their less obvious support of Al Qaida in Iraq-Zarqawi according to Italian and German authorities ran a European terrorist network from Tehran for many years.

McCain's conflation of Iran as public enemy number one in Iraq is on the mark as the mullahs have Sunnis fighting Shiites and Shiites fighting each other. Bush has fallen into a hopeless trap in Iraq set mainly by Iran and so far their plan to become a nuclear armed regional power while the US is mired in Iraq is-as Obama himself confessed-working out to their advantage

[LeftRight]

wow. Apollo has spoken, and it is full of lies!

Iran is NOT global enemy number 1. That would be Al Quaeda as led by Osama Bin Laden!

Simultaneous support of Mahdi army and Bader Corps. I can't speak for the Bader Corps, but I knwo for a fact that Iran is NOT supporting the Mahdi army!! In fact, the Mahdi army is simply a group of nationalists who simply want Iraq back for the Iraqis, therefore they will NEVER accept support from Iran!!

Al Quaeda in Iraq.... let's see, there are almost 100 of them now!

[ApolloSpeaks]

What is bin Ladin compared to the Ayatollahs? What is al Qaida compared to Hezbollah? A putrid pond in the widening sea of mullah blood, and nothing more.

If there is no connection between the Mahdi Army and the mullahs what is Al Sare doing in Iran taking a crash course in becoming an Ayatollah? The mullahs are grooming this theo-facsist thug for big things.

[broilinginhouston]

Iran is also the clear winner of our war on Iraq. High oil prices? Check. Compliant government in Baghdad? Check. It almost makes you wonder which of our government officials (Bush, Cheney, McCain?) are in the mullahs' pocket.

[LeftRight]

That's simple: All of them!

[mamacat]

When troop levels were increased in Vietnam, to over 500,000 troops in-country, it had an overwhelming effect on the situation on the ground. It resulted in the deaths of a whole lot of Vietnamese, Cambodians, Laotians, and Americans, before we eventually gave the country back to the people who were living there in the first place. The thing is, if we had left before the surge (in Vietnam), there would have been a huge number of people, on all sides, who would not have been killed or maimed, and Cambodia would not have been destabilised.
Fast forward almost exactly 40 years.
It is too late to stop the surge. All we can do is pay the consequences, and pray that noone decides to expand the war into Iran, like they did to Cambodia.
The people who lied to us about the need to invade Iraq are now telling us we have to stay there. Maybe it is time to question the voracity for war and violence of these same leaders.

[AngerAndDetermination]

Absolutely true.

Also, see the film, "The Trials of Henry Kissinger." The Republicans let the war go on for years, solely because if they pulled out, and Viet Nam were unstable, Richard Nixon would lose re-election. I believe that the number of people killed during that time was 20,000.

[desmirl]

As long as the Bush administration infests the White House, things WILL NOT get better. They have dug in their heels with a belief that more military might--more death and destruction--will make everything all better. Problem is, McCain believes the same thing.

[Siryn]

Sobering. As much as I detest the thought, I couldn't put McCain in office even if Hillary was the Dem nominee. Nader would get my vote at this point.

[LeftRight]

But what if we're looking at another 2000, when a vote for Nader is effectively a vote for McBush?

[Justtellthetruth]

Whatever the hell else happens, just PLEASE try to be cognizent of who we are NOT fighting in Iraq. We are NOT fighting the Iranians, Despite what rumors are being passed off as fact.

Once that total lie is fully diseminated to the american public, it will become the reason to go to war with Iran. Watch ANYONE who makes this connection, IE John McCain and Hillary Clinton. It is THE SAME TYPE of BS that got us into Iraq in the first place.

[JShankel]

I'm sure everything will be fine in about six months.

[anelder]

What could you possible mean? Aren't these the same words that we heard last year at the beginnig fof the surge and every six months thereafter? There must be an army of your kind out there with your heads in the sand.

[normathumb]

Learn to appreciate sarcasm, please.

[Sundialsvc4]

The reason why the Baker-Hamilton study was ignored, I believe, are quite simple: they were the voice of reason, but reason was not the motivation for this war.

This was, is, and shall remain a war of ... Conquest. A war that was started for and which remains in quest of ... Treasure.

We should not be surprised by a maniacal attention to a singular purpose if we are dealing with maniacs. We should not be surprised at sociopathic behavior from sociopaths. Our history books are filled with tales of conquest, and we should not expect anything less bloody.

[outnow]

There are about six sides to the war in Iraq. It is in reality an "occupation" and not a "war." The United States military forces are just another militia operating in the country. John "McSurge" McCain can argue that, if the surge is working, that the surge "worked." If the surge fails, then more troops are needed. There will be more deaths until the control of the oil is secured. This is a resource war. American is dependent on oil. Without access or control, our country will fail. Our "energy policy" that Bush/Cheney came up with in 2001 involved carving up the oil fields in Iraq.

There is also a good chance that an attack on Iran is in the works. To "support the troops," one must support world conquest - beginning with those oil-rich nations such as Iraq and Venezuela. We also have Iran in our sights.

McCain and Lindsay Graham are always spouting the same old rhetoric about how safe it is in Iraq as if there is a military solution - if you kill enough people, they will roll over and give up their oil or be governed by a pro-Israeli administration. The war will go on for 100 years with everyone fighting over the greatest prize in the history of the world - the oil, gas, and water in Iraq.

North Korea has nukes - we did next to nothing. North Korea has missiles, we did next to nothing.

[MikeDu]

"There is also a good chance that an attack on Iran is in the works."

The U.S. military installed its first Phalanx point defense system at a base in Iraq recently. They're making noises like its meant to shoot down incoming mortar rounds, which is absurd. Both this point defense gun and installing missile defense in Europe makes sense if you expect Iran to launch itsmissiles in retribution for a major U.S. attack.

[SubparDude]

:

You mean that all this here War Stuff is real "complicated?"

Well lets just Win a Victory. That sounds simple enough.

Problem Solved. Back to the Ranch.

:

[outnow]

You forgot about using the chainsaw to clear brush - without adult supervision. Or using the shotgun for shooting quail with clipped wings without a hunting license while drinking. These are you master generals who have never been in combat.

[SubparDude]

HuffPost's Pick

It is so very much easier to Demonstrate One's Vigourous Bravery by sending some other proud folks off to do the Actual Fighting. As Jonathon Winters' character said: "You don't know How Much I wish I could be with you men, But I'll be watching it all through Thick Field Glasses from 1,500 yards offshore!"