Putin as Energy Tsar: Russian Gas Outflanks U.S. Missiles
"This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia, where Russia can threaten a neighbor, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it." Condoleezza Rice, August 13, 2008.
Oh really? What will Rice do to make sure Russia does not get away with it? And who in the media will call Condi's bluff? After squandering so much in terms of lives, treasure, and credibility, this administration has turned America into a paper tiger. Our country lacks the resources to stand up to Russian aggression. While Russia has the resources to bend its neighbors to its will.
The rest of the world gets it. Russia is the world's largest oil and gas producer by far. Its combined oil and natural gas production, on an energy-equivalent basis, is almost twice as large as Saudi Arabia's. More to the point, Russia produces 30% of all natural gas in the eastern hemisphere. And Putin is more than willing to use natural gas as a political weapon.
This is why France and Germany opposed the U.S. proposal to admit the Ukraine or Georgia into NATO last spring. And that is why the rest of the world has been muted in its criticism of Russia's actions against Georgia.
Putin regrets the breakup of the former Soviet Union, and he is strengthening Russia's energy alliance with its neighbors and with Iran. Together, the former Soviet Union and Iran represent 45% of all natural gas production in the eastern hemisphere.
In January 2006, Russia suddenly stopped selling gas to the Ukraine, which had elected a government less friendly to Russia. The three-day impasse had regional implications because most of Russia's gas destined for western Europe must be shipped through a pipeline that crosses the Ukraine, and gas shortages were felt throughout the EU.
But soon, Russia will be able to punish the Ukraine without inflicting collateral damage on itself or others. Russia will then have a chokehold over Europe's natural gas that compares to the Standard Oil monopoly of the late 19th century. By 20011, the Nordstream Pipeline, which will move gas under the Baltic from Russia to Germany, and the Blue Stream Pipeline which will move gas under the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey, are both scheduled to be completed. Like John D. Rockefeller 120 years earlier, Russia will soon be in a position to tell anyone, "We can do without you, but you can't do without us."
We've already seen how Russia uses its resources to thwart U.S. moves against Iran. A few weeks ago, after Shell and Total announced they would not move forward with new investments in Iran's South Pars field, Russia's gas monopoly, Gazprom, announced that it wished to expand its oil and gas development in Iran.
Last October, Putin met with his neighbors to sort a longstanding impasse over mineral rights underneath the Caspian Sea, where an estimated 257 trillion cubic feet in natural gas reserves have yet to be developed. Prior to 1991, those claims were divided 50/50 between the Soviet Union and Iran. Today three new countries, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan also touch the Caspian.
At the meeting, held in Teheran, Putin sent a message aimed, not only at the United States, but also at Turkmenistan which allows U.S. military transport planes to refuel en route to Afghanistan, and Azerbaijan where the U.S. financed improvements to a former Soviet airfield. "We should not even think of making use of force in this region," said Putin. All five nations agreed that none would allow their territories to be used as a base for military strikes against any of the others. Putin also told Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that he desired for deeper relations between the countries.
This November, ministers from the major gas exporting countries will meet in Moscow to discuss the formation of a gas OPEC, an idea that Iran has been promoting for years.
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There's an old rule in bar room fighting - don't let your opponent get up off the floor after you have punched him. He is liable to use a two-by-four on your head. Russia's return bites the neocons' grand energy scheme in the backside. Control of the Baku-to-Ceyhan pipeline is now in question. The states on the southern flank of Russia can be brought back into an active sphere of influence.
Meanwhile, all Americans want their happy motoring to continue to their suburban homes located far from where they once had jobs. Borrowing away theirs and their children's futures is becoming evident in the foreclosure rates and the banking crisis. Equally sobering for Europe is that they depend on the Russians for gas and oil. Drilling and bombing our way out is not the answer, despite the rhetoric from John McCain and even Obama with his war-mongering advisers.
When Ronald Raygun "defeated" the "Evil Empire," he forgot the first rule of bar room fighting - don't let your opponent get up off the ground after you punched him. Russia has huge stocks of U.S.dollar
why were we in afganistan helping the afgans fight the russians?OIL!Why did we go into Iraq ?OIL! why do we have iran surrounded?If russia ,china and iran were able to combine their new found riches?
Throwing glowing darts at each other doesn’t solve any problems. It is the problem!
"Our country lacks the resources to stand up to Russian aggression. While Russia has the resources to bend its neighbors to its will."
Why USA is trying to have a control of key resources well beyond its borders, let's be hones, around the World?
Why USA is trying to bend every other country in the World to its will? Russian "aggression" hardly ever comes to play unprovoced. Could you name another country that is famouse for its aggresive military actions agains other countries around the world? What USA and Israel military advisors are/were doing in Georgia on the border with Russia? Why USA was sending weapons and building military bases there?
Hitler's dream of a 1,000 Year German Empire died when they ran out of gasoline.
The same could easily happen to the U.S. if we don't wise up.
David Fiderer posted: "Russia uses its gas resources for political influence as well as for commercial benefit. It is unrealistic to suggest otherwise.
Americans and Brits presume to lecture Russia about evils of charging market prices for a commodity. This is rich ( pun intended)
Certainly, Ukr/Russia gas dispute was NOT a wholly commercial dispute. I did not claim it was. But I did propose that Russia took a perfectly rational and measured way to discourage Ukraine's anti-Russian belligerence -- by removing subsidies.
Now If Russia would've overcharged Ukraine I would protest it myself.
But charging market value for a product to an unfriendly regime after sufficient notice and protracted negotiations is wrong?! I would love to see coherent refutation of Russia' s stance on this matter. So far none was offered.
From the same administration who replaced diplomacy with saber rattling comes... more saber rattling. Meanwhile the world has gone deaf on that ear.
And sure, we are ever going to attack Russia. Right.
Empty scabbard rattling, you mean. The US is already overcommitted. With Iraq and Afghanistan, there's nothing left in the tank to be rattled.
russian agreesion?
these are two break-away regions that are happy russia is in thier stopping the georgians from cracking down
who stopped american agression when we allowed kosovo to become independent?
the "ancestral" homeland of the serbs
this is on russians southern doorstep
look, if you're a neocon, choose a different party
this a matter between the russians, the georgians and south ossetia
stupid georgia made the first move -- let them lie in their own bed
as for american decline
that's a function of geology and decades of economic mismangement
peak oil will weaken this country
the decline has already started
and though russian oil peaked again
they do have tons of natural gas
so..., probably..
as do china
we have collapsed.
As far as America is concerned, much depends on "what do you want, and how badly do you want it?"
Right now, America seems to be content with paper-wealth in the hands of the few. As Russia and other countries well know, "this is no substitute for oil in the ground." You can literally-print a million of your "Dollars" every minute around the clock (as America does do!), but this is no substitute for oil in the ground. It is also no substitute for a functioning, well-equipped factory on your own soil, producing your own goods from your own natural resources. Welfare, by any form or device, is no substitute for employment. Credit is no substitute for production and surplus.
Breakup of the Soviet Union was inevitable, because it wasn't a "Union" to begin with. But the re-separation of that alliance back into its component parts should not be confused with the concurrent decision to abandon America's cold-war. Wisely, one by one, other nations have realized that this only amounts to throwing good money down the toilet. Gen. Dwight Eisenhower told us the same thing but we haven't listened to him or his ghost yet.
Maybe we should. Are we "happy?" Are we "strong?" Are we "secure?" Did the path we have taken in the last 60-odd years go in the "right" way? If the answer to all these is "no," then what exactly are we waiting for?
Most of Soviet Union was.. more like a union actually, nobody fought a war for neither Georgia nor Armenia nor Ukraine, so unlike Texas, New Mexico, Florida, California, Puerto Rico..
Odd and ironic: the neocons have reversed the strengths and weaknesses of the US and USSR.
The USSR fell primarily because its command economy could not compete militarily with the US' robust capitalist economy, which threatened to field a missile shield the USSR could never afford to counter.
Now, the US economy is faltering, at the mercy of Chinese willingness to fund our vast debt. Russia's new capitalist order and large oil and natural gas supplies give it the economic strength to fund a large, modern military. Plus, the US is pinned down in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Additional crises -- such as Venezuela deciding to pinch down on oil or additional Mideast action that send oil prices skyrocketing -- will additionally limit the US range of action.
One additional factor: the Russian people, disillusioned and depressed in the USSR, now enthusiastically back their new, ever more powerful, nationalistic government. Americans are not exactly ready (yet) to revolt, but confidence in our government is at an all-time low.
That's because things on Russia have become better, while in the US they have become worse.
Iran isn't simply one among several factors in relation to the Russia/Georgia situation, this is ALL about Iran. Th alliance between Iran and Russia is the chief beneficiary of the conflict between Georgia and Russia. The U.S., which is the biggest threat to Iran and its running out the clock tactic for gaining nuclear weapon capability, now has a new obstacle to standing up to Iran - rationalizing its failure to focus itself on helping Georgia. Most of the talk about the U.S. being spread too thin by all of this suggests it just kind of happened this way. Why can't it be that they are deliberately spreading us too thin?
It might be all about Iran for the current US administration but it is not for Russia. Which means that Russia (and Iran) are playing on a two dimensional chess board with many possible moves. The US, on the other hand, has decided to play on a board that has only a single row. It can only move in two directions: forward and backward. And the result is that it has set itself up for a loss.
"this is ALL about Iran."
Maybe it's all about inability to produce coherent analysis..
If bush and cheney had another 4 years, they might try to go to war with russia for their oil.
Sure. We can't even control a country the size of Iraq. Now we are going to attack Russia? From which direction? Landing on the Kamchatka peninsula for a 5000 mile drive to Moscow?
I am rolling on the floor...
And how do you suppose a wor with Russia could look like? Mashroom clouds all over?? War is fun only in Hollywood.
Does anyone find it curious that with all the satilites US has that they did not know russia was waiting for the georgians.
It's not about what you know. It's about what you can admit you knew when there is absolutely nothing you can do...
Thanks for a very lucid and timely post, something all Americans should understand, quickly.
The announcement of missiles to Poland deal moves the Russians even closer to the scenario you suggest.
While our government is focused on pumping US resources into the black hole in Iraq, and encouraging Iranian pre-eminence in the region, they've clearly been caught out of position, with no leverage and no options but reactionary posturing and short term dealmaking.
Let's hope the Dems (considering Brzezinski and Albright, probably) get going with a new strategic global strategy, and a radical change in energy policy.
If I had a dollar for every time you left-wingers have counted America out, I could retire... If Putin wants to throw his lot in with Iran and vice versa, let him; it only serves to strengthen the Bush position that Iran is a threat that needs to be dealt with. Besides that, you conveniently leave China out of your Russia-Iran domination scenario--I think they might have something to say about access to energy resources. You also seem to dismiss the ability of the free market to adjust to the forces of supply and demand. The world is a dynamic place, it's naive to expect that it will sit still and simply acquiesce to whatever Russia or Iran demands, certainly not in the long-term.
As far as the Europeans go, if they want to bend over and drop their pants for Putin, that's their business--it wouldn't surprise me. Outside of Britain and some former eastern-bloc countries, you'd be hard pressed to find a pair of cajones among the entire European population--that dog don't hunt anymore. But they'll get a wakeup call soon enough.
I will give Russia credit for one thing: you don't see them letting a bunch of sappy environmentalist prevent them from exploiting all of their natural resources--they're drilling every place possible, even claiming rights to the ocean floor of the North Pole.
Ok, so let's say Putin and Iran throw their weight around? Do you think we're in a position to deal with Iraq militarily? I would like to see your reply...
Here is mine:
Of course we have the military might to deal with Iran. But do we have the troops or or the MONEY? Any lengthy confrontation would cost some serious cash. And are you for the continuance of relying on China and Japan for loans? Regardless of military hardware what would a broke USA with super inflation be worth? Actually it would sort of remind me of the Soviets before their break up. Have we not learned anything?
ps-FYI-Our country has spent the equivalent of over $26,000 per US citizen on the Iraq/Afghanistan wars. How's that for fiscal conservatism?
The only reason we would need a substantial number of ground forces is if we plan to invade and occupy Iran. We don't need to occupy Iran to achieve our objective--destroy its military and infrastructure and/or break it economically. Either can be done without putting a single boot in Iran, although we'd likely use a few SOF teams for certain missions. So, to answer your question, yes we can deal with Iran militarily.
I love how US right wingers talk about "free market" correcting the problem. We dont have a free market. Remove the tariffs against British steel. Remove the subsidies for farms. Remove shareholder interests, since thats not "market" conditions. Stop pumping money into the real estate markets to keep them afloat. All those broken mortgages? That's the free market correcting the problem, and its tearing up the country. All that credit card debt being washed away? Thats the free market.
This country is about as much 'free market' capitalist as Russia is communist. Both systems are a failure and a myth, but we still are sticking to our ideology against the face of reality. At least the Russians woke up.
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