Tippecanoe and Palin Too

His Democratic opponents derided him as too old for the presidency. They called him "granny." They even suggested that he might be senile. Yet despite lingering questions about his age and his health, and largely on his reputation as a war hero, William Henry Harrison was elected the ninth President of the United States, taking the oath of office on March 4, 1841.

One month later, he was dead.

It can be a mistake to draw too many parallels from one historical event to another, yet the election of 1840 and the turbulent years that followed should serve as a stark reminder of the importance of every president's first major decision, that of choosing his running mate. Harrison was 68 years old when he won the White House, the oldest president to be elected until Ronald Reagan, and the first to die in office. His successor, John Tyler, proved an ineffective and unpopular president.

President Tyler was scorned and ridiculed by both parties, dismissed by his critics as "His Accidency." He was the first president to have a veto overridden by Congress, and the first to be the target of an impeachment resolution. He was also the first sitting US president refused nomination for a second term by his own party. Tyler has gone down in history as one of the least effective US presidents, and as the first in a series of weak chief executives whose actions (or lack thereof) laid the immediate groundwork for the Civil War.

The speculation and debate surrounding vice presidential picks usually focuses on electoral calculus--on efforts to balance the strengths and weaknesses of the presidential nominee, and achieve a broader demographic and/or geographic appeal. But this politicization of the decision ignores its real world consequences, for while it may be considered distasteful to dwell on the mortality of our elected leaders, history tells us that vice presidents often ascend to the Oval Office upon the death or resignation of their predecessor, and thus their qualification to serve in that capacity should always be our number one concern.

Of the 38 men to have been elected President since 1789, eight have failed to complete their final term--more than one out of five. And at 72 years old, in remission from cancer for a second time (he had deadly melanomas removed in 1993 and 2000), the possibility of a President John McCain's death or incapacitation in office is far from remote. Hopeful Americans stand in line to plunk down hard earned cash on a 1 in 120,000,000 chance to hit the Powerball lottery, yet if history is any guide, a Vice President Sarah Palin would stand a roughly 1 in 4.75 chance of succeeding John McCain before the end of his second term.

Those are damn good odds for Palin. And damn bad odds for the US and the world if she is unprepared to lead our nation through our current turbulent times.

[David Goldstein blogs on WA state politics at HorsesAss.org]

Read more reaction from HuffPost bloggers to John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate

Comments

[histryteacher]

Anyone who can work President Tyler into the current election news cycle deserves kudos.
Kudos.

[laire]

What I don't understand is how can all this known republicans come out and defend this so strongly and look their colleagues in the eye when they get back from vacation.

[AdultFilmLegend]

She is so money. And not a pantsuit in the closet.

[KimIslesboro]

This post is the best analysis of this issue I have seen. It gives historical perspective on just how profoundly reckless McC is. With virtually no vetting, he chose a person he had only met once to entrust to be a heartbeat away from assuming the most awesome responsibility on this planet. His choice was impulsive and made in haste. He was more concerned with maintaining secrecy than properly evaluating the fitness of his choice to serve. He made a calculation that choosing a radically right wing, anti-choice evangelical woman to appeal to his base and possibly some disaffected HRC voters. He placed his personal ambition to be elected president over the interests of the American people to have the best qualified person to assist him in governing if elected. Is this how John McC puts country first?! I know he likes to play craps, but he is gambling with the safety and futures of hundreds of millions of Americans with this dicey choice.

He claimed that he chose her because she is a "reformer" -- but after 24 hours of inquiry her repeated abuse of power in office has been exposed http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-schmeltzer/palin-almost-recalled-as_b_122769.html
and the centerpiece of her introduction speech (her alleged opposition to the Bridge to Nowhere) has been exposed as a lie (she in fact supported the bridge -- until she opposed it) http://mudflats.wordpress.com/
BAD JUDGMENT!

[LeftRight]

Thanks for doing the math about that. I hadn't realized that her chances of actually becoming president were that high. What happens when you also add in his age and health concerns, though??

[kmac23va]

I tried making this very point about Harrison in a comment, but I don't think it got through. True, Harrison walked outside in the cold rain and kind of did it to himself, but there's precedent for this happening. Garfield was dead one year in, McKinley a year into his second term, Reagan shot a year in...not sure about the others, but again, within one year? Still not enough time for Palin to learn at McCain's knee.

Interesting converse argument..­.only 4 VPs have become president via election following their president leaving office normally (that is, no death or resignation). These are Adams (for Washington), Jefferson (for Adams), Van Buren (for Jackson), and George H.W. Bush (for Reagan). If you think a few years are missing...­Van Buren's final year was 1841 (ironically followed by Harrision) - it took 148 years for it to happen again.

The odds are better that McCain dies and Palin becomes president through ascendency than for her to win her own term when McCain decides he's done in 2012 or 2016. (If you want to say the same on the Dem side, I don't see Biden running when he's 73, which would be his age about in 2016.)

[LeftRight]

Even if we take the cases of Lincoln and Kennedy, who were assassinated in their 5th year and 3rd year, respectively, that STILL wouldn't likely be enough time for her to learn how to represent the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!

[jeanrenoir]

IF she is unprepared?!! By what possible magic--an encounter with Gandolf?--can Palin be made ready to lead the world in the next couple of months, should McCain croak? Whether you like him or not, Obama's obviously not only a brilliant guy who has appeared knowledgeable and gaffe-free for months on any foreign policy issues that the times or reporters have hurled at him. And his trip abroad was obviously triumphant, both in terms of the impression he made on every leader he met, AND in terms of the international public's eagerness to see him leading America. These millions of people didn't all drink Obama Kool-Aid. Obama's a uniquely impressive America guy at this point. But Palin? Palin's even more disastrously ignorant and provincial than Bush in '00. And look where HIS ignorance got us! Besides, even if Bush was empty-headed, he had at least been the son of a president and had been in the vicinity of sophisticated, smart people. Legally Blonde is a movie fantasy, not a wishful blueprint for real world political breakthroughs if we just hire ignorant naifs to "clean up" DC, and no doubt the world.