Iran's Nuclear Program: Crunch Time

What a surprise!

Iran has been caught in yet another act of deception. Faced with the prospect of being outed by the U.S. in advance of talks in Geneva on October 1, Tehran's leaders informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of a second uranium enrichment facility.

Oops, you mean we hadn't told you, the Iranians all but said. We were sure we had. Must have been an unforgivable oversight on the part of a junior clerk. Anyway, nothing to be concerned about. It's only an effort on our part to pursue peaceful nuclear energy for that eventual day -- which, given our meager oil and gas reserves, is just a century or two away -- when we might, just might, need to consider alternatives.

Seems oddly fitting that the facility is located near the holy city of Qom, presumably allowing those in the know to marry science and prayer in their quest for nuclear advances.

Watch AJC's new short film, "Iran: This is the Button"

Of course, there's a pattern here. In 2002, the first enrichment facility, in Natanz, was revealed to the world not by the Iranian government, but by opposition groups that clandestinely collected data and shared it with the world.

Then there was the Iranian effort to design a nuclear warhead, only to be discovered in 2007, as reported in the New York Times, after U.S. intelligence agencies penetrated Iranian computer networks.

That would be bad enough, but it gets still worse.

For one thing, the regime is also pursuing ballistic missile technology. Longer range, more precise, multiple-stage, solid-fuel rockets have been on display, with hints of more surprises to come. Indeed, Voice of America carried a story on September 28 that "Iran says it has successfully tested two long-range missiles that defense analysts say could hit Israel and southern Europe." Iran may detest Israel (and, no less, nearby Sunni-dominated regimes), but why the need to reach Europe? Hmm.

And for another, the Iranian leadership, worrisome enough with its messianic belief in hastening the coming of the Hidden Imam and reaching the End of Days, is on the ropes from revelations of fraud and state violence in connection with the June elections. Nothing like the possibility of cooking up a little foreign distraction to try to unite the people and divert attention from the regime's true nature.

All of which brings us to how to deal with the challenge.

We know what doesn't work, which is of some help, if little comfort.

Six years ago, the European Union, led by Britain, France, and Germany, undertook to negotiate with Iran, based on the principle of "double suspension." If Iran suspended its enrichment activity, sanctions would be suspended.

The verdict on that approach has long been in -- unmitigated failure. Not only did Iran not go along, but, in the ensuing years, it went from a few dozen centrifuges spinning uranium to several thousand, all the while masterfully keeping the Europeans at the table and believing that progress was possible. It is now believed that Iran has enough low enriched uranium from which to produce two nuclear bombs.

Iran has to be the gold medalist in outsitting -- and outwitting -- negotiating partners.

As an Arab diplomat said, watch how Iranians eat pistachio nuts as a metaphor for their approach. While others shovel down the nuts, an Iranian will take each one, painstakingly study it, clean it, and only then pop it in his mouth and savor it. The moral: Unless Iran really feels the heat, you won't be able to outlast an Iranian at the bargaining table.

Some have suggested that if only Washington would drop its belligerent tone and extend an olive branch, Iran would respond in kind. Well, as of January 20, 2009, that's exactly what the U.S. has done, offering serious "engagement" to Tehran -- only to be met by the disclosure of the second enrichment facility, new ballistic missile tests, arrests and killings of protesters, and defiant language from Iranian leaders about their determination to press ahead on the nuclear front.

The moment of truth is at hand.

If Iran doesn't come clean on its nuclear activities, allow full and unfettered inspections, and suspend its enrichment program, all unlikely prospects, then will the key countries have the will to ratchet up significantly the pressure in such important spheres to Iran as energy, banking, and transportation? The U.S. appears ready to lead. Will others follow?

Will China and Russia stop carrying the water for Iran at the UN Security Council, arguing for more time as a seeming antidote in and of itself, and agree to truly toughened sanctions which send the message that Iran "can't have its yellow cake and eat it, too"?

Russian President Medvedev recently said more sanctions may be "inevitable," but what he has in mind remains to be seen. And will Moscow reconsider its arms sales to Iran, which have only emboldened the Iranians in their defiant stance?

Will the EU collectively get serious about tough sanctions of its own that say no to business as usual with Tehran? In certain key spheres, Europe currently provides Iran with products, services, and technologies it can't obtain elsewhere.

Will Iranian leaders continue to be welcomed in world capitals, even as they flaunt binding UN resolutions already adopted and IAEA guidelines? Ankara, Beijing, Kuala Lumpur, and New Delhi are among those that have rolled out the red carpet for Ahmadinejad, with Brasilia reportedly waiting in the wings.

And how many more hate-filled diatribes will Ahmadinejad give in UN forums, like he did in April in Geneva and September in New York, as too many delegates remained in their seats, while only a minority, a principled one at that, absented themselves or walked out in protest?

Some argue that to press for a steely response from the international community is to prepare for war. Wrong. It's precisely the opposite.

The best way to avoid a military showdown with Iran is to end the unseemly pandering and infinite patience shown toward Tehran. Even as the extended hand should, indeed, remain available, the cost of refusal must be upped dramatically -- before it's too late. And yes, Iran is vulnerable. Its economy is shaky, domestic fissures have been revealed, and the country is far from being self-sufficient.

A toughened approach may not be a sure-fire recipe for success. But, then again, waiting, hoping, blustering, and dispensing an occasional slap on the wrist -- the core elements of the global strategy to date -- haven't exactly done the trick, either.

 

Comments

[baba2nde]

Threats can come from everywhere we look, in all colors, shapes and sizes, but let's take a quick look at your thesis:
1) Concerned about Iranian nuclear program? We should be. But we should be more concerned about nuclear programs in Pakistan, India, Israel, North Korea and any other unknown unknowns. Iran is a member of Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty; the others are not.
2) Concerned about Iranian missiles reaching Israel? We should be. But it turns out that they can also reach India, China, Pakistan, Russia, Egypt and a whole lot of other places, none of which are pounding the drums of hysteria over the issue.
3) Concerned about Israeli nuclear program? We should be. It is the only nation that recently voted against a resolution calling for Nuclear Weapons-free Middle East. It is not a secret if the Jerusalem Post reported it, is it?

Who is "we"? The peaceloving people of the world.

A flat earth may be a thing of beauty, but it does not exist. Let us expand our world view.

[Wozzeck]

Huff Po blogger, Gareth Porter analyzes the "secret" enrichment facility here:
"US Story on Iran Nuke Facility Doesn’t Add Up"
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=48649

[FrankCornish]

Thanks. Mr. Porter is great.

Much Appreciated.

[sposton]

I don't understand how Iraq could have threatened the security of the US more than it threatened its neighbors. The same goes for Iran! If Iran threatens its neighbors surely all of them will join is some kind of military alliance to stop Iran. If they do so then perhaps we can help them with logistic, armaments, etc. But for us to consider militarily to attack Iran is absolutely stupid, and that includes if they get their A-bomb. If Israel is threatened by what Iran is doing let them take care of it, with all of its other consequences. We do not need Israel's agents in the US leading us into another military adventure in defense of Israel. It is time to stop such nonsense once and for all.

[Kaviraj]

If you don't understand, here is the real reason for both Iraq and Iran.

It is because Saddam sold oil in Euros and Iran is doing the same. This threatens the petrodollar and thus the economy of the US, which is not in too good shape at present, to say the least. If the $$ is replaced by the Euro as the world currency, America is on its @ss, both financiall­y/economic­ally and as a world power.

[SEQUOIABISON]

Israel would love to be the only country in the Middle East to have the bomb. There overwhelming military might has thus far allowed them to continue their imperialistic behavior and land grabbing from their neighbors. Israel has adopted a biblical manifest destiny, which they believe entitles them to seize land that they feel historically belongs to them.

With another nuclear power in the neighborhood, Israel is fearful that now they will not be able to continue stealing land from their neighbors without outside interference. After all there is really no power strong enough in the Middle East to stop them, especially with our government supporting everything they do, under the guise of being our ally, Israel has been able to bully their neighbors without much resistance.

An aggressive Bully needs to be neutralized and stopped with an equalizer, the US and Russia have been mortal enemies for decades, but MAD (Mutally Assured Destruction) has prevented one side from being too imperialistic or aggressive. I believe Israels callous behavior toward their neighbors has brought about this arms race, if they are willing to open their doors to UN inspectors than I think Iran must do the same, but this cannot be another hypocritical one sided approach to this problem, punish Iran for trying to develop the bomb and give Israel a pass for developing the bomb illegally?

[eileenflemingWAWA]

In solidarity SEQUOIABISON!

"The neighborhood bully just lives to survive. Well, he's surrounded by [politicians] who all want peace, they pray for it nightly that the bloodshed must cease. Now, they wouldn't hurt a fly. To hurt one they would weep…Well, the chances are against it and the odds are slim, that he'll live by the rules that the world makes for him, He's the neighborhood bully."-Bob Dylan

The demonizing of Iran is also the 'empires' addiction to cold war thinking- no more worry about commies, so to maintain the Industrial Military Complex there must be an enemy and Big Bro has deemed the enemy is Iran and Islam.

Also, Israel is desperately attempting to focus attention on Iran to deflect US from focusing on the 42 years of Military occupation of Palestine and their war crimes committed in Gaza.

[Jeremy Urbach]

What world do you live in?? " Israel adopted a biblical manifest destiny"...ummm if you have actually studied Middle East History and have gone there you would know that the time frame when Israel had its most land was from 1967-1981 when it gave the Sinai to Egypt in exchange for full normalization of relations..and Sadat paid for his life with it. Why don't you come to Israel, like I have and volunteer in the Army and see for yourself what BS you're spewing. If Israel was " Imperialist" it wouldn't have left the Litani river basin in 2000 which would be in Israels long term interests to hold onto, as a water source..and Israel could have taken Damascus in the 1973 war, but didn't...you are really not being accurate when the reality is that Israel has given more land back it has taken in defensive wars from 1948,1967, and 1973 in return for PEACE treaties..and by comparing Israels nuclear program which has been in place since the mid 1960s, Israel doesn't threaten to wipe Cairo or Amman or Damascus off the map..Israel COULD have used the Nukes in 1973, but didn't..because Israel is led by a rational democratic system. Iran continunally threatens Israel about wiping it off the map...is that a rational regime?

[Antiks]

Maybe the reason why Iran wants a nuclear weapon (if that's truly the case) is because it's a great deterrent? Ever notice how nuclear nations never get attacked by us?

[fusionfan]

Well, how about compensating the Palestinians as an alternative strategy?

10 million Pals
Say, in 3 million families to compensate
1 million dollars to each family plus agreement with neighboring countries, EU, USA to help resettle.
The Pals have already been kicked off all the best land in Palestine.

3 trillion dollars total cost.
Spread the cost over 5 years. 600 billion dollars per year.

Ok, a lot of money, but some sense of justice. Israel gets its little country in one piece the way God gave it to them according to their holy book. Israel's settlers appeased (they'll never move). Pals get a chance for a reasonable life. Everything cools down.

Iran is not a natural enemy of Israel; never was. No need to nuke anyone. No need to blow up any more buidlings.

[Yermammy]

What about Israel's nuclear weapons? The one's no one talks about. Why isn't Israel a member of the NPT?
Israel only has a problem if they start something. Then, they have a problem.

[eileenflemingWAWA]

Israel has not signed the NPT because then they would have to admit they have a WMD Program and allow IAEA inspectors in!

Everyone in the world-except most Americans has known all about Israel's WMD Program since 1986 when the London Sunday Times published Vanunu's photos and testimony.

Everyone in the world-except most Americans knows about Vanunu's Freedom of Speech Trial which began Jan. 2006-same day Hamas was elected.

You can learn all about that and much more @ VANUNU ARCHIVES:
http://www.wearewideawake.org

Eileen Fleming, A Feature Correspondent for The Palestine Telegraph and Arabisto.com
Founder of WeAreWideAwake.org
Author of "Keep Hope Alive" and "Memoirs of a Nice Irish American 'Girl's' Life in Occupied Territory"
Producer "30 Minutes with Vanunu" and "13 Minutes with Vanunu"

[Fred Hood]

I know I am old but cannot understand this latest scare tactic to insure we spend more on military might.

The question in my mind is this, the usa has thousands of nuks so how can we dictate to Iran what they can and cannot do. As long as we have nuks they need them as defense is that not the reason we built so many???

CFJ

[eileenflemingWAWA]

Let's Talk This Truth:

In September 30, 1986, Mordechai Vanunu was kidnapped from Rome by order of Shimon Peres, who ordered the Mossad, to "Bring the son of a bitch back here."

In 1963, Peres was Israel’s Deputy Minister of Defense and he lied to President Kennedy during a White House meeting.

Kennedy told Peres, “You know that we follow very closely the discovery of any nuclear development in the region. This could create a very dangerous situation. For this reason we monitor your nuclear effort. What could you tell me about this?”

Peres repLIED, “I can tell you most clearly that we will not introduce nuclear weapons to the region, and certainly we will not be the first.”

In 2005, Vanunu told me:

"Did you know that President Kennedy tried to stop Israel from building atomic weapons?

"Kennedy insisted on an open internal inspection. He wrote letters demanding that Ben Guirion open up the Dimona for inspection...

"When Johnson became president, he made an agreement with Israel that two senators would come every year to inspect. Before the senators would visit, the Israelis would build a wall to block the underground elevators and stairways. From 1963 to ’69, the senators came, but they never knew about the wall that hid the rest of the Dimona from them.

"Nixon stopped the inspections and agreed to ignore the situation...

-Countering Benjamin Netanyahou's Orwellian Spin at the UN:
http://www.wearewideawake.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1441&Itemid=224

[Macready]

thank you EileenFlemingWAWA

[joabear]

If Israel got rid of all its nuclear weapons, I can guarantee you that the Islamic Republic's nuclear program will continue to proceed. Iran's nuclear weapon ambition started during the Shah's regin before the Revolution when Iran was an ally of both Israel and the US.

Now think about it? Why did even the Shah wanted a nuclear weapon program???

[Macready]

America suggested it to him . . . and that is the truth

[SimonNZ]

Iran's possible pursuit of nuclear weapons is indeed frightening, as is the thought of any country in this highly volatile region possessing them.

Let's all advocate for full and extensive IAEA inspections for Israel at the same time as Iran, so we can be certain no-one in the Middle East is encouraging the proliferation of nuclear weapons by holding undeclared stockpiles.

[Abdulameer]

What is all this anti-Semitic drivel about Israel's nuclear weapons? The fact that Israel posseses nuclear weapons does not mean that we should permit the Islamic Republic of Iran to get them. Israel has not threated anyone. The Islamic Republic of Iran has threatened to use the A-bomb against Israel and wants Israel wiped off the map. There is not corresponding threat from Israel against anyone. The Islamic Republic of Iran has consistently supported terrorist groups in Iraq, Gaza and Lebanon. If they get a nuclear weapon, they can continue to support terrorism without fear of retaliation. Israel's possession of nuclear weapons is not in any way a threat to world peace any more than England's nuclear weapons are a threat to world peace. Those readers here who keep pointing the finger at Israel's weapons are just trying to demonize Israel and divert attention from the Iranian threat.

[Thelonius]

Wrong!! During the 1973 war Israel threatened to exercise its nuclear option unless President Nixon replaced the weapons Egypt destroyed in the Sinai. Not wanting a nuclear attack against Egypt, Nixon complied, thereby giving in to Israel's nuclear blackmail. The main threat to Israel is its illegal and brutal occupations of the Palestinian West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip (still occupied under international law as it is completely under Israel's boot) as well as Syria's Golan Heights and Lebanon's Shebaa Farms.

[courtb]

There are two sides to every story: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/06/opinion/the-last-nuclear-moment.html

[Time4newrealities]

There is no reason to believe that Iran will knuckle under to threats of further sanctions or actual sanctions. The development of nuclear weapons is a central goal of the regime. It sees itself within grasp of far greater power in its region and beyond. After repeated declarations that as President he would not allow Iran to have a nuclear bomb Obama is back-pedaling. Russia and China benefit from maintaining Iran as a trading partner far more than they do by satisfying the needs of the European powers, the United States and Israel. German and Swiss companies benefit from sales of equipment to Iran for further development of their nuclear programs. The only way for Iran's nuclear military progress to be stopped, unfortunately, is by a series of well-planned military strikes on their facilities now and again afterwards as they attempt to rebuild them. There will be a substantial cost to pay for such military intervention but the cost of not intervening will likely be far greater.

[Thelonius]

Any reasonably well informed person knows that for a multitude of reasons, war is not an option. The best way to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons (bearing in mind that no real proof has been presented that they are) is to follow the advice of the Pentagon: Remove the threat of a nuclear attack by any country in the region by convincing Israel (currently occupying other peoples' lands) to do away with its nuclear arsenal. To begin with, Israel should be forced, if necessary, by strict sanctions, to allow inspections of its Dimona reactor and to sign the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty as Iran has. The 'elephant in the living room' is Washington's double standard and blatant hypocrisy.

[mulegino]

It's obvious that most of the posters here have caught on to the fact (graciously ignored by the MSM) that this whole manufactured crisis is not really about non-proliferation, U.N. resolutions, defending Europe from Iranian missiles (that's a real laugh), securing regional "stability" or "world peace".
Fact is, it's a pretty transparent psyop to get the public ready for yet another war of choice, and this time, to secure the PNAC dream of making Israel the unchecked hegemon in the greater Middle East. Question is, will those Americans who will in all likelihood be asked to sacrifice their blood, or the blood of their loved ones to further the aggrandizement of a foreign power wake up before history repeats itself in an even more ugly and homicidal fashion?

[TJCole]

We have 10,000 plus Thermo Nuclear Weapons ready yo go in minutes..they have none...None..
How are they a threat to us...when none of their missiles can even reach central Europe..?

Why all this fear mongering...? If they truly are a threat to us or our troops still languishing in Iraq then we male them an offer they can't refuse...

When did we become, such a nation of cowards..?