When it comes to Israel, advice is never in short supply.
It's doled out steadily by diplomats, scholars, editorial writers, columnists, you name it.
The onset of the so-called Arab Spring -- in actuality, it more closely approximates an Islamic Winter -- has unleashed another tidal wave of counsel and critique.
They are summed up along the following lines:
"[T]he Arab Spring holds out a historic opportunity to complete the peace process in the Middle East" (French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé);
"The Arab Spring is an Opportunity for Israel" (Natalia Simanovsky, The Journal of Turkish Weekly);
"Netanyahu's prescription is to do nothing" (New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman);
"There is a need [for Israel] to look over the horizon" (Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center).
It's as if some observers, wanting desperately to wax optimistic about the moment, fail to take note of another reality, one far more sobering for Israel.
Since the upheaval began in Tunisia, Israel's immediate security environment has become more, not less, challenging. The chances for peace, already remote, seem still more distant.
I say this with profound regret.
As a long-time supporter of a two-state agreement, I wish for nothing more than the day that enduring peace will come for Israelis and Palestinians alike -- and a more comprehensive settlement with the Arab world as well.
But wishful thinking has its limitations, especially in this rough-and-tumble neighborhood.
Consider the stark reality that Jerusalem faces today:
Let's begin with Lebanon, long under Syria's iron grip and now increasingly in the hands of Syria's -- and Iran's -- dependable ally, Hezbollah.
Named a terrorist group by the U.S., Hezbollah operates a state within a state. It has a well-trained militia and stockpiles of missiles and rockets estimated in the tens of thousands. The group's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, boasts that his weaponry can reach every part of Israel, a nation that, in his view, has no right to exist.
Then there's Syria. Yes, the very same Syria that's in the news every day for the savagery of its regime.
Should President Bashar al-Assad be ousted, could Israel then rest peacefully? Hardly.
Who would replace him? Most probably, Sunni Islamists. Al Qaeda has already endorsed the opposition forces. And who would control Syria's stockpile of advanced weapons, courtesy of Russia and Iran?
And if Assad somehow manages to hang on, with help from Tehran and Moscow, Israel now has an even better idea of the unbridled brutality of its northern neighbor.
To the east looms Iran.
Here is a nation that flouts UN Security Council resolutions and International Atomic Energy Agency strictures, while developing nuclear-weapons capability and calling for Israel's elimination. U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said on January 29th that Iran could get the bomb within a year.
Closer to the east lies Jordan, which has had quietly convergent interests with Israel for decades -- largely driven by common fear of Palestinian radicalism -- but may yet be touched by street protests and surging Islamist political muscle.
To the south is Gaza, the Hamas stronghold.
Want to understand Hamas? Read its charter, which sets forth its worldview in chilling detail. There is no place for Israel and not much love of Jews, either.
Listen to the words of Gaza's prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh, who was just in Iran, where he declared for the umpteenth time that his group "will never recognize Israel."
And consider the thousands of deadly missiles and rockets in Gaza, supplemented regularly by the smuggling of weapons across the lawless Sinai and through the tunnels.
Then there's Egypt.
We all pray that, whoever ultimately gains power in Cairo, the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, will hold.
But with two-thirds of Egyptian voters choosing the Muslim Brotherhood or even more extreme Salafists, who today can be optimistic about the direction of Egyptian-Israeli ties?
And take note that, in the past year alone, there have been 12 separate terrorist attacks on the Egyptian gas pipeline to Israel (and Jordan).
Then there is the West Bank and the ruling Palestinian Authority.
President Mahmoud Abbas has been billed as Israel's best hope for an accord.
Maybe, but then again, maybe not.
Abbas, missing in action for most of the last three years, has had an odd way of demonstrating his commitment to the peace process. And his PA keeps undercutting the spinmeisters by glorifying Palestinian terrorists who have murdered innocent Israelis, and by teaching incitement to children.
To make matters still worse, Abbas has now embraced Hamas, the very group that ousted his forces from Gaza in a bloody coup nearly five years ago.
I don't know how long that marriage will last, but even if it turns out to be short-lived, what message does it send to Israel and the world?
The PA is ready to join forces with a group openly calling for Israel's destruction, and whose leader in Gaza travels to Iran to embrace its rulers. And yet Israel is supposed to see in all this an "historic opportunity"?
Oh, and by the way, one of Hamas's demands for tying the knot was dropping Salam Fayyad as prime minister. There goes the one Palestinian leader who, more than any other, invited hope for a better future.
And in this tour d'horizon, a word about Turkey.
Once a close regional partner of Israel, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken the country in a different direction.
He has embraced Hamas, pandered to the Arab street, and lambasted Israel every chance he gets, including in the recent dust-up with American author Paul Auster.
New chances for Israel thanks to the "Arab Spring"?
Much as I'd love to see them, where exactly are they?
So, to the advice givers, at least the well-intentioned among them, here are my two cents: Please show more restraint and greater understanding of Israel's difficult regional situation today.
Maybe in speeches, editorials, and columns there are easy answers. In Israel's real world, alas, there are not.
For more information, visit ajc.org.
Amira Mohsen Galal: Syria and 'The Great Game'
totally blockaded straits of Hormuz, anyone? retaliatory strike on Jerusalem and Tel-Aviv, retaliatory destructive strikes on Teheran and Qom, how, where does Pakistan Nuclear arsenal get deployed? and does China miss a chance to settle some scores with India, ?
radioactive fallout over Austrialia for years....
( and the Russians are gong to stay out of this? a few nukes on Suadi Arabia, and WDCV and NYC
and ....
(Note I've copyrighted this in case you thought you were gonna get it for a screenplay) Oh that Philip K Dick could be alive to see this....
Much as I'd love to see them, where exactly are they?"Maybe in speeches, editorials, and columns
there are easy answers. In Israel's real world, alas, there are not. " (David Harris)
Well put!
I guess Obama has not done enough damage last February with his "Mubarak Resign and Resign Now" statement as well as bombing Libya, which is leading to Radicals taking over in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, etc.
Israel is the only True Democracy in the Middle East, even thought its size equals to 1/6 of 1% of the land in the Middle East.
Mr.Harris, you wont find much change or understanding when it comes to Israel. Antisemitism is in, it is on a rise despite the ones who deny it, right here in the USA as well as a abroad.
I don't know what to say other than I will continue to support Israel, via donations, via travel and via continues blogging.
http://www.thejerusalemfund.org/www.thejerusalemfund.org/carryover/documents/charter.html
As if the PLO Charter wasn't anti-semitic enough, the PLO has now merged fully with the aforementioned Hamas Jew-haters.
Regrettably, anti-semitism in the Arab world is a reality.
Here, an Hamas cleric carefully explains the reason that Jews moved to "Palestine" in droves - to make it easier for the Muslims to kill all the Jews!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L0FrInZ3Pc
QUOTE:
"All the predators, all the birds of prey, all the dangerous reptiles and insects, and all the lethal bacteria are far less dangerous than the Jews."
Ya-houd. That means Jews, not Zionists.
That's interesting, since I have always known him as the head of the AJC. Do you have a date or link for that proposition, since I would love to better understand what he thinks his role is.
"The GOI is aware of our continuing concern that nothing be done in the occupied areas which might prejudice the search for a peace settlement. By setting up civilian or quasi-civilian outposts in the occupied areas the GOI adds serious complications to the eventual task of drawing up a peace settlement."
his whole quote here: http://www.cmep.org/content/us-statements-israeli-settlements_short#Johnson
Let’s also consider the Israeli nuclear forces and Israel’s demonstrated history of attacking civilian targets using indiscriminate and banned weapons. Let’s further consider the threats and blackmail used to control world governments and maintain regional hegemony and wider influence over the foreign policy decisions of other nations, most notably the US. “To enable Israel to abstain from dependence on nuclear arms calls for $2 to 3 billion per year in U.S. aid" US aid currently is closer to $10 billion annually when all is counted!
“"Most European capitals are targets for our (Israeli) air force....We have the capability to take the world down with us. And I can assure you that that will happen before Israel goes under”. When the world learns the full madness of Israeli policy and arrogance there will be demands for a nuclear-free ME including Israel! The phony narrative that Iran is the nuclear threat fades into insignificance compared to this reality.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/29073753/The-Samson-Option-by-Seymour-Hersh Sy Hersh analysis of Samson
http://www.carolmoore.net/nuclearwar/israelithreats.html more on Samson
“…$10 billion annually…” where is my share? One million would do.
I don't know if it totals 10 Billion, or a little more or a little less, but that's because the US won't release the information. In all 10 Billion is not a bad guess.
Israel could make peace with its neighbours then FEAR them. Israel was supporting Mumbarak during the Tahir (sp) uprising. Now Israel can change with the environment around them then sticking with the status quo. Instead z_ionist policy is the constant expansion of Israeli proper at the expense of the Palestinians.
Israel has a fantastic opportunity to create peace in the region. Unlike when the Soviet Union collapsed and the US rejoiced in their destruction while not helping in the rebirth of the new Russia. Now Israel has the same opportunity and it is squandering it over piety domestic issues which it continues to ignore. israel continues to ignore international and geneva conventions certainly treating the Palestinians as EQUALS would be a damn good start. Nevertheless that would crush the z_ionist dream of a j_ewish only country with an oppressed native palestinian population.
Israel never froze their settlement expansion. The Palestinans gave the Quartet a proposal and yet Israel is stalling on their proposal, what gives!! Yes both sides are to blame however This time Israel hasnt submitted their proposal to the Quartet. The world is still waiting while Israel steals more land on a daily basis.
Abbas's eagerness to merge fully with Hamas makes it clear where Abbas stands on peace with Israel. I wish it was different, but this is the reality.