Advice for the Candidates: Some Trouble for President Obama?

09/11/2011 07:03 pm ET | Updated Nov 11, 2011

On Thursday, President Obama unveiled his jobs plan to the American public before a joint session of Congress.

Ignore all the spin: We are only 14 months away from the general election. Time is not in his corner and the Republicans, who maintain a majority stake in the House of Representatives, will do everything in their power to stall the passage of a successful bill. And even if a bill is passed -- can what is passed lower the unemployment rate and create jobs in enough time to encourage enough American voters to reelect him in November of next year?

The Republican narrative moving forward, no matter who the candidate will be, will be a need for new leadership and new direction. The Democratic narrative will likely be that we cannot afford change in such an unstable time. Such a tactic has been proven effective during wartime (i.e. with President Bush and terrorism and with President Reagan during the cold war -- review the infamous bear and wolf ads on YouTube, respectively) -- but can it work when it comes to the economy?

With a new U.S. Choose Reports prognostication out on

Romney is still at the top but Perry should not be underestimated. If he doesn't peak too soon, he may very well be the candidate. And if Huntsman does not have a surprise win in New Hampshire, Perry should look towards him as a Vice Presidential candidate. No one runs for Vice President, and Huntsman should not be the first. But Perry should see the talent in this man, despite his inability thus far to gain a lead.

Campaigns are dynamic. But elections can be predictable. The Republican candidate will be either Perry or Romney. I do not see a way for Sarah Palin to enter this race anymore (she will not enter if she cannot win the nomination and she cannot win the nomination). President Obama's ship will either sink or stay afloat. But right now, we must be honest; it has a leak in it.

Let me know your own thoughts below. You can also visit or for David's political prognostication entitled "U.S. Choose Reports."