The essence of ultimate decision remains impenetrable to the observer -- often, indeed, to the decider himself. -- John Kennedy (1963)
In my previous post I discussed why crises cannot be predicted and why theories that are not rational expectations cannot be both believed and correct....
3 Comments | Posted January 26, 2012 | 01/26/12 03:24 PM ET
Rational expectations consequently fail for the same reason Communism failed -- the arrogance and ignorance of the monopolist. John Kay
In physics the Heisenberg uncertainty principle asserts a limit in our ability to simultaneously know certain facts, such as the position and speed of a particle. The theory...
Posted November 22, 2010 | 11/22/10 08:02 PM ET
That would be my generation. Tom Brokaw famously referred to the generation that faced the Great Depression and won the Second World War and Cold War as the greatest generation. My generation too faces great challenges: the Islamic menace and the Great Recession being our war and depression. As Senator...
Posted March 8, 2010 | 03/08/10 02:46 PM ET
"Kill all the economists. They'll do anything for a buck," says Senator Fritz Hollings writing in a blog submission on the Huffington Post. To fully appreciate the irony in this, Google "Senator Disney." The first thing that comes up is: Ernest Hollings --...
Posted January 24, 2010 | 01/24/10 11:24 PM ET
Want to make green technology work? To revolutionize entertainment? Concerned about free speech? Want to reduce income inequality? To break the stranglehold of the multinationals over political power? To unleash a wave of innovation that will make the establishment of the Internet look like a calm summer day? A Utopian...
Posted January 7, 2010 | 01/07/10 02:25 PM ET
The following article was written by Robert A. Levine and David K. Levine.
According to an American "intelligence official" commenting on the failure of the intelligence community to anticipate the Christmas day potential terrorist disaster: "Every piece of data, of course, looks different when you know the answer."...
Posted September 18, 2009 | 09/18/09 10:52 AM ET
Dear Paul:
I was reading your article How Did Economists Get It So Wrong. Who are these economists who got it so wrong? Speak for yourself kemo sabe. And since you got it wrong - why should we believe your discredited theories?
It...
Posted September 15, 2009 | 09/15/09 10:26 AM ET
Want to lower the cost of health care? To conquer breast cancer? To make green technology work? To revolutionize entertainment? Concerned about free speech? Want to reduce income inequality? To break the stranglehold of the multinationals over political power? To unleash a wave of innovation that will make the establishment...

Posted January 30, 2012 | 01/30/12 11:54 AM ET