Swine Flu 1999: We Were Warned

In researching my upcoming book on factory farming for St. Martins Press, I have come across many warnings from our past about the looming threat of pandemic influenza emerging from large-scale hog operations.

It now appears that six of the eight genetic components in the currently circulating virus are direct descendants of a swine flu virus that first emerged in North Carolina a decade ago. That bug was discovered in August 1998, at a 2,400-head breeding facility in Newton Grove, NC, where all the sows suddenly came down with a phlegmatic cough. Pregnant animals spontaneously aborted their litters.

Nasal swabs from the pigs were sent to the state agriculture department's Animal Disease Diagnostic Lab in Raleigh. State scientists at first did not think the outbreak was extraordinary. To them, it sounded like another case of "classic" swine flu, which had appeared many times before in North Carolina. That virus is also known to cause fevers and miscarriages in sows.

But when scientists ran the regular tests for swine flu, they were stumped. They simply did not recognize the virus they were looking at. Even more alarming, some of the sows who got sick had been vaccinated against classic swine flu. That vaccine had clearly failed to stop this particular infection.

(All of the pigs at Smithfield's facility in Mexico were also reportedly vaccinated against swine flu, but not against the current strain - and we now know that it was recently transmitted from a farmer to his pigs in Alberta, Canada).

By the end of 1998, the new bug had also acquired two bird flu gene segments as well, evolving into a previously unseen "triple reassortment" virus, a worrisome and unprecedented monster of human, hog and bird flu origin.

Fortunately for us, back in 1999, the new flu virus did not become a threat to people - humanity had dodged one big epidemiological bullet. Even so, scientists tried to warn the world that this would happen again, only next time it would bring far more calamitous results.

"It's a wake up call," Dr. Nancy Cox, an influenza expert at the CDC, told the Raleigh News & Observer at the time. "It showed a human flu strain has gotten into pigs and that strain may permanently establish itself in pigs," she said. "It can go both ways. You have veterinary consequences as well as human consequences of this interspecies transmission."

And the prestigious journal Science pronounced that, "After years of stability, the North American swine flu virus had jumped on an evolutionary fast track."

Even a decade ago, the planet was already well overdue for a global human pandemic, warned one of the top virologists in the world, Dr. Robert Webster, at St. Jude's Children's Research Hospital in Memphis. He said that children, teenagers and young adults born after the 1968 Asian flu pandemic would be especially vulnerable, because they would have no immunity to a reconstituted Asian flu virus.

Interestingly, nearly all the deaths in the current pandemic have occurred in people born after 1968, something that should probably be investigated.

And even though the feared leap to humans did not materialize (10% of US hog workers tested did show antibodies to the 1998 triple-assortment virus, but none had gotten sick) North Carolina's chief epidemiologist cautioned that the new virus could still jump back and forth between pigs and people.

"We don't know how often these reassortments occur in nature - probably more than we want to realize," agreed Dr. Newton MacCormack, chief of communicable disease control at the NC health department. "We're pretty lucky that most of these viruses reach a genetic dead end. The big problem is the rare occasion when one of these viruses gets into a human and begins to be passed from person to person."

The 1998 outbreak, though confined to pigs, spread with ferocious virulence. Soon after the North Carolina sows got sick, outbreaks were reported in Texas, Minnesota, and Iowa herds. Within months, pigs were getting sick nationwide. More than 4,300 samples were taken from swine in 23 states, and on average, 20.5% of them had the new triple-assortment virus. In Illinois and Iowa, 100% of the animals were infected, while Kansas and Oklahoma each reported rates of 90%. The long-distance transport of live animals - from farrowing to fattening to slaughtering - was blamed for the rapid dissemination.

Fortunately, back then the North Carolina agriculture department introduced new diagnostic tests that were advanced enough to identify emerging "reassortments" of novel viruses mixing human and animal components. Such vigilance, it was thought, would help prevent a similar outbreak in the future.

"These influenza viruses can shuffle like a deck of cards, but we will at least have one more diagnostic tool in our hands when this happens again," Dr. Gene Erickson, director of microbiological testing at the state agricultural lab, told the N&O. "That might give us some extra time when there is a true outbreak of a new virus."

Erickson added that "the best way to view this whole series of events would be as a valuable learning experience for all of us. We will be much better prepared should it happen again."

Ten years later, a new and deadly outbreak of swine flu would appear in people, most likely beginning in Mexico, and then spreading around the world - even before it was isolated and identified in a lab. The Mexican government apparently was not equipped with the same testing equipment that Dr. Erickson had installed in Raleigh.

We still don't know where the current virus emerged, ("pig zero," as some have called it). But we may one day learn that, if proper scientific monitoring of emerging viruses had been in place, a global pandemic might have been averted.

Comments

[Garbosmed]

RE: victims being born post-1968, one anecdote: While traveling to a family wedding a few weeks ago, my daughter and I both came down with what may have been this swine flu within 48 hours of our plane flight. Within days, 2 other family members with whom we had close contact during the incubation period (sharing a car) had it. We were from different parts of the country; we all agreed it's the worst virus we've had in years. But we were all better with no complications within about 10 days. The only person who shared the car but didn't get it was someone who had gotten the vax for swine flu back in 1976. Maybe that vax confers some immunity for this version of the virus too, so those who got it or have been exposed to previous swine flu versions have some sort of limited immunity?

[JnrNorman]

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[tc2598]

Oh, if only we had heeded that warning back in 1999, we could have been spared a week of full blown, zombie-apocalypse media hysteria. We could have been spared having to deal with the possibility of getting sick, and then, 98-99% of the time, getting better. We could have been spared!

Curse you, 1999 scientists! Curse you all!!

[dobberdoss]

So just out of curiosity what animals do the big pharma companies use to develop their vaccines? and could there be a connection? I really dont' see any reason for panic, People have already cured themselves of this flu using their OWN antibodies produced by their OWN ammune system. This antibodies can be synthesized and made into a vaccine can they not?

[Josephius]

I'm not sure what is needed more here: a better understanding of immunology...or English.

One thing is for sure, when you don't have a grasp on the fundamental concepts, conspiracy theories work great!

[textynn]

If the government really cared about the people and the swine flu there would be equal access to health care. I can tell you that I happen to know that many people have been having really bad flus this spring. Most of these people did not have health care. If the American government cared about disease to the extent they pretend, it would make sure all disease was on record. Now much disease is off record due to access to care and that record represents data that could protect the whole populace. It's simple science.

[cycle3man]

Man keeps finding ways to support the ever increasing earth’s population.
Mother Nature knows when the earth's ability to support.is exceeded
The ‘MOTHER’ will then trigger a plague or some other means to
reduce the population to a sustainable number.

The out breaks that we are experiencing are the warning signs.

The words spoken by Red Fox in the TV show Sanford and Son are a good fit,
“ THIS IS THE BIG ONE!!!!!!”

Please don't get me started, " What about farmed Salmon?????"

[mfb]

David,
I think there's little question that high density animal farming is a breeding ground for new bugs. I also suspect, however, that these new breeds are most dangerous to local residents when the virus first jumps species. There's little evidence that these bugs pose a global danger to human populations that merits the mobilization we see. These sorts of species jumps have been happening for centuries. but it's imp[ortant to remember that successful viruses adapt themselves to their hosts and those that kill don't spread. If our only model for pandemic flu is 1918, we may need to wait a long time before this kind of problem justifies the kind of media hype and hysteria we're now seeing. None of that makes factory farming any more appealing. It just suggests that this is a more a global nuisance than a global crisis.

And the hysterical response inevitably creates more damage than potential benefits.

[stateMachine]

Everybody blowing this off has never seen a plot of an exponential curve before. Stupid.

[Olerist]

"triple reassortment"

I wonder if multiple vaccinations at one time mixed with the adjuncts that are known mutagens can produce a similar effect in humans?

[KillTheMessenger]

Nope. Vaccines contain the proteins, they do not contain active RNA.

[Olerist]

some contain live virus and other contain inactivated RNA.

When you mix the various viruses, say giving the MMR, the varicella, the polio and other vaccines like the HiB, HepB and DTP along with their adjuncts capable of mutagenesis there is documented evidence that new viral strains can arise.

[Fronzeine]

To those who think the the swine flu is the newest sensationalist media story, the difference between this and the regular flu is the fact that humans have no immunity to it. It is wildly contagious! Perhaps more people die of seasonal flu NOW, but what happens when H1N1 continues to spread? I check FluCount.org every day to see how bad the damage is. May not seem like much now, and I hope it doesn't get worse.. but if it does, I want to be the first to know.

[KillTheMessenger]

Yawn. Not particularly contagious, not deadly. Check your facts.

[CamJam]

David,

Not sure if you caught this 4 minute NPR news report but I heard it while driving in the car a few days ago called:

'76: Bell Bottoms, Legionnaire's Disease, Swine Flu

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103642563&ft=1&f=1007

I vaguely remember when this incident took place and naturally as a young teen, I passed on getting the vaccine that 40 million other panicked people took. Some people that had this vaccine back then acquired side effects - some ended up with a nerve disorder.

I'll just stick to washing my hands OFTEN, keeping myself hydrated and eating well just as I did back in '76.

Oh and I also survived the Chicken Pox back in the late 60's. Hopefully I will be one of the lucky ones that will not get Shingles due to how the Chicken Pox Vaccine has been so successful but now many that have been inoculated for Chicken Pox now face getting Shingles.

[CamJam]

I meant to also add this bit from another related article that gives more info than the NPR report:

(excerpt) "Congressman John Murphy of Staten Island claimed the CDC was stalling on identifying the Legionnaire's disease to panic people into fearing swine flu. Murphy demanded an investigation into the CDC and the indemnification deal made with the drug companies. The heroic miracle that was supposed to overhaul the government's image was rendered futile before it had started.

On Oct. 1, 1976, the immunization program began. By Oct. 11, approximately 40 million people had received swine flu immunizations, mostly through the new compressed air vaccination guns. That evening, in Pittsburgh, came the first blow to the immunization program: Three senior citizens died soon after receiving their swine flu shots"

http://www.salon.com/env/feature/2009/04/28/1976_swine_flu/

[000Jade000]

David,

For your Smithfield/factory farms research:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/12840743/porks_dirty_secret_the_nations_top_hog_producer_is_also_one_of_americas_worst_polluters

That's the most disgusting thing I've read in a long time. From now on, if I can't afford organic, I'm done with pork.

[dausone]

Organic doesn't necessarily mean that the food is being processed any different Jade or that those animals are being able to access those green pastures that we all think of when we say organic. Pigs are still fed food that is highly processed, tails are docked because of stress, and most still live in very close confinement. In order to make sure our food is healthy and safe we should be striving for beyond organic foods and pastured animals raised humanely and sustainably. Eatwild.com is a great resource for small local farms that raise animals on pasture. Some of the farms you can actually visit and see how the animals are treated, how waste is dealt with, how they are fed, and how they are killed and prepared. It's never been a better time to be close to our farmers and let them know that we want higher standards.

[dausone]

Thanks for the link Jade!

[NYUKULELE]

Interesting report, David. I'm looking forward to your book.

[LADawson]

Replikins warned that the conditions were right for the possibility of an outbreak of H1N1, originating from Mexico, a year ago. Makes me wonder why the hype level wasn't raised then?

[Ramarious]

The entire swine flu panic is a media-generated smoke screen. More people die from seasonal flu than this particular strain, it is weaker than most, not stronger, and only those who are manipulated by the state run media are even remotely concerned. Even the AP has reported, "it's not as bad as we said". Some media outlets are even beginning to report on the coverage. Maybe you should write on something of value, like the steady advance of Socialism in the US, the threat to our rights and freedoms posed by the current administration, or the rise in violence in Iraq since Obama has taken office. These are all more comment worthy than the swine flu.